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What next after league 1 promotion?

Bit of data analysis examining trends for league 1 clubs going up to the Championship.

http://www.wolvesblog.com

What do you think? Quick promotion to the Prem or back to Bescott?!

posted on 17/4/14

Don't understand some of the points about these stats. They show there is a significant gap between the two divisions because most promoted teams finish mid table at best. If there wasn't a gap then they would get the same points in the Championship as they got in League One.

To say I in 6 teams finished in the top six is surely an argument that there is a significant gap, not that there isnt

posted on 17/4/14

There certainly is a gap DJ just not the gaping chasm there is between Championship and Prem. I think the figure for promoted clubs surviving in the Prem is that 1 in 3 makes it through 2 seasons without a relegation.

posted on 17/4/14

As above, it comes down to the size of the club.

The Yeovils, Donnys and Barnsley's invariably don't last long.
The likes of Leeds, Forest, Saints fair better and don't really face relegation again.

70 points is a realistic target next season for me, and that will mean we will be in and around the play off picture.

posted on 17/4/14

comment by DJ (U17289)
posted 4 hours, 55 minutes ago
Don't understand some of the points about these stats. They show there is a significant gap between the two divisions because most promoted teams finish mid table at best. If there wasn't a gap then they would get the same points in the Championship as they got in League One.

To say I in 6 teams finished in the top six is surely an argument that there is a significant gap, not that there isnt
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Think it's to do with your definition of a gap, DJ. An increase in average quality is a given. The existence of promotion and relegation ensures it. I'd call that a gradient, a cline or any other synonym you picked out of the thesaurus!

Your "no gap" scenario actually equates to "the same", which nobody is arguing for. For me at least, a gap requires a jump to clear it and in this context implies that all the teams in the Championship are better than all the teams in league one (though there will always be an occasional exemption who can jump).

The fact that there's a reasonably even mix of clubs who are promoted again (5), get stuck (9), or go back down (6) in the few years after league 1 automatic promotion suggests that there isn't a gap of any note. You'd need a significant skew towards relegation (e.g. 3 promoted, 6 stuck, 11 relegated) to justify a claim that there was a gap. This may be the case for the Premier League to the Championship. It's easy to see how the Sky money could have created that. But it doesn't seem to be the case for the Championship to League 1.

posted on 18/4/14

And yes lizard I agree with your point that a gap on average quality is a given which is the point I am making. And despite wolves potentially getting a record points haul in league one, there doesn't seem to be too many people confident that we will be promotion challengers next season.

posted on 18/4/14

comment by DJ (U17289)
posted 59 minutes ago
And yes lizard I agree with your point that a gap on average quality is a given which is the point I am making. And despite wolves potentially getting a record points haul in league one, there doesn't seem to be too many people confident that we will be promotion challengers next season.
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yeah, like I said, your "gap on average quality" just defines a division. Everyone knows it, nobody needs you to remind them of its existence. I'd have thought most people define a gap in the way that I have, which actually gives some more information about the respective quality of two divisions beyond that which is already contained in the definition of 'division'?

you'd need to run a poll on prospects for next season to get a better idea of how people are feeling but my impression is that folk are riding a wave of optimism at the moment and most believe we can be at least in the top ten and competing for the play-offs. Either way, I'm not sure that you'll find anyone who thinks that if we keep exactly the same squad then it's guaranteed that we'll be relegated, which is what would happen if a (sensibly defined) gap did exist between divisions.

Enjoy today's game against a team showing there's certainly no gap between leagues one and two. They already have as many points this season as they got last at the level below. Not sure what the overall trend is like when transitioning between two and one but the fact that four teams are swapped each season might be an attempt to establish more of a quality gradient between them?

posted on 18/4/14

Rotherham were league two last season? I had no idea.

Literally until right now i hadn't given a thought to who came from league 2 last season.
Think you are probably right regarding little gap between one and two, almost like the old days of north and south still.

posted on 18/4/14

almost like the old days of north and south still.
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a little before my time that!

just checked though and wolves were 1924 champions of div3 north...the year after the mighty Nelson F.C!

posted on 18/4/14

Ha, didn't it end in he 60s or something, Wolfgang will remember.

Pretty strange when you look back over the leagues history, teams like Darwin, new Brighton and so on.
http://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_former_Football_League_clubs

posted on 18/4/14

Well done on promotion

The bees are going up

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