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The stats show we’re “back” or is it?

Emery likes his teams to attack, attack, attack - his team's direct approach has, so far, been highly effective.

Arsenal's Premier League season comparison table after eight games using the 'expected goals' formula;

Expected Actual

Points after eight matches 10 18
Goals after eight matches 13 19
Goals against after eight matches 11 10

Going by this formula we see that Emery's Arsenal have EIGHT more points than they should have.

According to Gracenote, "Arsenal were perhaps fortunate to have won against Watford, Newcastle United, Everton and Cardiff City. This is driven by a near 50% increase in the number of goals Arsenal have scored (19) in comparison to what is expected from the quality of their chances (13).

Emery's men have enjoyed the rub of the green so far, or maybe they are just ruthless? Arsenal fans will not care a jot as long as it continues.

posted on 19/10/18

Played a bunch of bottom half teams and beat them.

Played a few better teams and got beat.

Seems consistent with an outside the top 4 finish.

posted on 19/10/18

We are definitely on the up and we just need to maintain the momentum. We won the last six matches by 2 or more goals, something we haven't done for a long time.Some will say we are playing weak teams, but that's nonsense. You can only play the team in front of you, and not all so-called big teams will beat the so-called weak teams. Spurs lost to Watford. Against Newcastle we got exactly the same result as Chelsea and Man City. We comfortably beat West Ham who comfortably beat Man U and held Chelsea.

posted on 19/10/18

comment by Manfrombelmonty (U1705)
posted 1 hour, 1 minute ago
Played a bunch of bottom half teams and beat them.

Played a few better teams and got beat.

Seems consistent with an outside the top 4 finish.
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We have also beaten top half teams (whether you mean last season's table, the position of the opponent when we played them or current position)
There are 84 points available from the 'lesser teams' - that could give you a shot at the title in some seasons.


The true tests are still to come. The opening two games tell us little about how Emerys Arsenal will turn out, and the other games too. Let's see where we are at Christmas and at the end of the season. That will be when we can start thinking about making conclusions.


posted on 20/10/18

We use to finish top 4 while having a crap record against the other top teams. So it’s possible to get there by just beating teams below you. I hope we’ll at least be more competitive against the top teams under Emery, instead of the usual turn up, roll over, get pumped. Signs aren’t too bad We were bit unlucky against city and Chelsea, we had chances to score and could have got a draw out of one of them. It certainly wasn’t a traditional wenger embarrassment. But until our defence improves I think we’ll always struggle against the best team, we still give too many chances away. It’s improving, but a long way to go yet

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