Hard Brexit getting closer

comment by Gingernuts (U2992)
posted 30 minutes ago
comment by Great Teams Put Staff On Furlough (U1308)
posted 19 seconds ago
comment by Gingernuts (U2992)
posted 23 minutes ago
comment by Great Teams Put Staff On Furlough (U1308)
posted 7 minutes ago
comment by Gingernuts (U2992)
posted 4 minutes ago
comment by Great Teams Put Staff On Furlough (U1308)
posted 2 minutes ago
comment by Gingernuts (U2992)
posted 59 minutes ago
Have any of these 50,000 ventilators arrived anywhere yet?

How have they been shared out?
----------------------------------------------------------------------

I am sure that these supplies along with the financial help from the ECB will be fairly and evenly distributed, once all member states agree on how they will be shared and how the cost will be placed against each nation.

----------------------------------------------------------------------

I don't know if you're being facetious or not

But have any of them arrived and are in use?
----------------------------------------------------------------------


The Brussels bickering is delaying financial aid to prevent the Italian economy drowning in uncontrollable debt. It has a solid manufaturing base and good technical levels..

Spain in a similar boat will the the bottom drop out of its tourism revenue and also struggle because of this.

Yet the UK will not be taking the eurozone bailout on, and I am sure as an EU customer that import/export duties will be set high as a punishment.
----------------------------------------------------------------------

Hmmm

Wouldn't surprise me mate.

The rhetoric over the past 4 years has always had the threat of "punishment" about it.
----------------------------------------------------------------------

the EU will be desperate to contiue to export to us, I think putting import duties on good from the EU to promote our own manufacturing and products.
----------------------------------------------------------------------

I believe so too.

All this debate about JIT manufacturing and supplies preventing and threatening us works the other way and which huge organisations are going to up and run after what is likely to be the worst market crash ever faced?
----------------------------------------------------------------------

remember the bits we make for JIT production in Europe....

People keep saying this will impact on what we bring in, it woudl also disrupt the outgoing also. It's in teh best interests fo the EU to make this a simple as possible. Or just use the expensive production planning and simulation software that all manufacturing uses and add in transit leadtimes to accommodate any barriers the EU place.

comment by Gingernuts (U2992)
posted 1 hour, 19 minutes ago
comment by Great Teams Put Staff On Furlough (U1308)
posted 19 seconds ago
comment by Gingernuts (U2992)
posted 23 minutes ago
comment by Great Teams Put Staff On Furlough (U1308)
posted 7 minutes ago
comment by Gingernuts (U2992)
posted 4 minutes ago
comment by Great Teams Put Staff On Furlough (U1308)
posted 2 minutes ago
comment by Gingernuts (U2992)
posted 59 minutes ago
Have any of these 50,000 ventilators arrived anywhere yet?

How have they been shared out?
----------------------------------------------------------------------

I am sure that these supplies along with the financial help from the ECB will be fairly and evenly distributed, once all member states agree on how they will be shared and how the cost will be placed against each nation.

----------------------------------------------------------------------

I don't know if you're being facetious or not

But have any of them arrived and are in use?
----------------------------------------------------------------------


The Brussels bickering is delaying financial aid to prevent the Italian economy drowning in uncontrollable debt. It has a solid manufaturing base and good technical levels..

Spain in a similar boat will the the bottom drop out of its tourism revenue and also struggle because of this.

Yet the UK will not be taking the eurozone bailout on, and I am sure as an EU customer that import/export duties will be set high as a punishment.
----------------------------------------------------------------------

Hmmm

Wouldn't surprise me mate.

The rhetoric over the past 4 years has always had the threat of "punishment" about it.
----------------------------------------------------------------------

the EU will be desperate to contiue to export to us, I think putting import duties on good from the EU to promote our own manufacturing and products.
----------------------------------------------------------------------

I believe so too.

All this debate about JIT manufacturing and supplies preventing and threatening us works the other way and which huge organisations are going to up and run after what is likely to be the worst market crash ever faced?
----------------------------------------------------------------------
Hi Ginger, hope you're well!

The EU *will* have to levy the common external tariff to the UK as they are legally obliged to do so. It's not a matter of being pragmatic but adhering to global trade law.

For reference:

https://www.wto.org/english/tratop_e/tariffs_e/tariff_data_e.htm

https://www.wto.org/english/thewto_e/whatis_e/tif_e/fact2_e.htm

And from the WCO:

http://www.wcoomd.org/en/topics/nomenclature/overview/what-is-the-harmonized-system.aspx

comment by What would Stuart Pearce do? Better than Goze... (U3126)
posted 11 minutes ago
comment by Gingernuts (U2992)
posted 1 hour, 19 minutes ago
comment by Great Teams Put Staff On Furlough (U1308)
posted 19 seconds ago
comment by Gingernuts (U2992)
posted 23 minutes ago
comment by Great Teams Put Staff On Furlough (U1308)
posted 7 minutes ago
comment by Gingernuts (U2992)
posted 4 minutes ago
comment by Great Teams Put Staff On Furlough (U1308)
posted 2 minutes ago
comment by Gingernuts (U2992)
posted 59 minutes ago
Have any of these 50,000 ventilators arrived anywhere yet?

How have they been shared out?
----------------------------------------------------------------------

I am sure that these supplies along with the financial help from the ECB will be fairly and evenly distributed, once all member states agree on how they will be shared and how the cost will be placed against each nation.

----------------------------------------------------------------------

I don't know if you're being facetious or not

But have any of them arrived and are in use?
----------------------------------------------------------------------


The Brussels bickering is delaying financial aid to prevent the Italian economy drowning in uncontrollable debt. It has a solid manufaturing base and good technical levels..

Spain in a similar boat will the the bottom drop out of its tourism revenue and also struggle because of this.

Yet the UK will not be taking the eurozone bailout on, and I am sure as an EU customer that import/export duties will be set high as a punishment.
----------------------------------------------------------------------

Hmmm

Wouldn't surprise me mate.

The rhetoric over the past 4 years has always had the threat of "punishment" about it.
----------------------------------------------------------------------

the EU will be desperate to contiue to export to us, I think putting import duties on good from the EU to promote our own manufacturing and products.
----------------------------------------------------------------------

I believe so too.

All this debate about JIT manufacturing and supplies preventing and threatening us works the other way and which huge organisations are going to up and run after what is likely to be the worst market crash ever faced?
----------------------------------------------------------------------
Hi Ginger, hope you're well!

The EU *will* have to levy the common external tariff to the UK as they are legally obliged to do so. It's not a matter of being pragmatic but adhering to global trade law.
----------------------------------------------------------------------

Yeah don't disagree mate but I don't think it will be as punitive as some would have us believe. There will quite rightly be concessions on both sides.

Business is awful tbh. Construction at its lowest ever and no signs of improving.

I know life is sacrosanct but this lockdown can't just stay in place like this. There'll be nothing to come back to. Maybe end of April will see an easing.

comment by Gingernuts (U2992)
posted 8 minutes ago
comment by What would Stuart Pearce do? Better than Goze... (U3126)
posted 11 minutes ago
comment by Gingernuts (U2992)
posted 1 hour, 19 minutes ago
comment by Great Teams Put Staff On Furlough (U1308)
posted 19 seconds ago
comment by Gingernuts (U2992)
posted 23 minutes ago
comment by Great Teams Put Staff On Furlough (U1308)
posted 7 minutes ago
comment by Gingernuts (U2992)
posted 4 minutes ago
comment by Great Teams Put Staff On Furlough (U1308)
posted 2 minutes ago
comment by Gingernuts (U2992)
posted 59 minutes ago
Have any of these 50,000 ventilators arrived anywhere yet?

How have they been shared out?
----------------------------------------------------------------------

I am sure that these supplies along with the financial help from the ECB will be fairly and evenly distributed, once all member states agree on how they will be shared and how the cost will be placed against each nation.

----------------------------------------------------------------------

I don't know if you're being facetious or not

But have any of them arrived and are in use?
----------------------------------------------------------------------


The Brussels bickering is delaying financial aid to prevent the Italian economy drowning in uncontrollable debt. It has a solid manufaturing base and good technical levels..

Spain in a similar boat will the the bottom drop out of its tourism revenue and also struggle because of this.

Yet the UK will not be taking the eurozone bailout on, and I am sure as an EU customer that import/export duties will be set high as a punishment.
----------------------------------------------------------------------

Hmmm

Wouldn't surprise me mate.

The rhetoric over the past 4 years has always had the threat of "punishment" about it.
----------------------------------------------------------------------

the EU will be desperate to contiue to export to us, I think putting import duties on good from the EU to promote our own manufacturing and products.
----------------------------------------------------------------------

I believe so too.

All this debate about JIT manufacturing and supplies preventing and threatening us works the other way and which huge organisations are going to up and run after what is likely to be the worst market crash ever faced?
----------------------------------------------------------------------
Hi Ginger, hope you're well!

The EU *will* have to levy the common external tariff to the UK as they are legally obliged to do so. It's not a matter of being pragmatic but adhering to global trade law.
----------------------------------------------------------------------

Yeah don't disagree mate but I don't think it will be as punitive as some would have us believe. There will quite rightly be concessions on both sides.

Business is awful tbh. Construction at its lowest ever and no signs of improving.

I know life is sacrosanct but this lockdown can't just stay in place like this. There'll be nothing to come back to. Maybe end of April will see an easing.
----------------------------------------------------------------------
Most of highest tariffs have been lessened via a series of WTO agreements going back to the Doha round. MFN tariffs on agri produce still remains high.

Which means most food prices will go up. And/or we'll see more shrinkflation.

Have to shoot on, but take care of yourself

comment by What would Stuart Pearce do? Better than Goze... (U3126)
posted 12 minutes ago
comment by Gingernuts (U2992)
posted 8 minutes ago
comment by What would Stuart Pearce do? Better than Goze... (U3126)
posted 11 minutes ago
comment by Gingernuts (U2992)
posted 1 hour, 19 minutes ago
comment by Great Teams Put Staff On Furlough (U1308)
posted 19 seconds ago
comment by Gingernuts (U2992)
posted 23 minutes ago
comment by Great Teams Put Staff On Furlough (U1308)
posted 7 minutes ago
comment by Gingernuts (U2992)
posted 4 minutes ago
comment by Great Teams Put Staff On Furlough (U1308)
posted 2 minutes ago
comment by Gingernuts (U2992)
posted 59 minutes ago
Have any of these 50,000 ventilators arrived anywhere yet?

How have they been shared out?
----------------------------------------------------------------------

I am sure that these supplies along with the financial help from the ECB will be fairly and evenly distributed, once all member states agree on how they will be shared and how the cost will be placed against each nation.

----------------------------------------------------------------------

I don't know if you're being facetious or not

But have any of them arrived and are in use?
----------------------------------------------------------------------


The Brussels bickering is delaying financial aid to prevent the Italian economy drowning in uncontrollable debt. It has a solid manufaturing base and good technical levels..

Spain in a similar boat will the the bottom drop out of its tourism revenue and also struggle because of this.

Yet the UK will not be taking the eurozone bailout on, and I am sure as an EU customer that import/export duties will be set high as a punishment.
----------------------------------------------------------------------

Hmmm

Wouldn't surprise me mate.

The rhetoric over the past 4 years has always had the threat of "punishment" about it.
----------------------------------------------------------------------

the EU will be desperate to contiue to export to us, I think putting import duties on good from the EU to promote our own manufacturing and products.
----------------------------------------------------------------------

I believe so too.

All this debate about JIT manufacturing and supplies preventing and threatening us works the other way and which huge organisations are going to up and run after what is likely to be the worst market crash ever faced?
----------------------------------------------------------------------
Hi Ginger, hope you're well!

The EU *will* have to levy the common external tariff to the UK as they are legally obliged to do so. It's not a matter of being pragmatic but adhering to global trade law.
----------------------------------------------------------------------

Yeah don't disagree mate but I don't think it will be as punitive as some would have us believe. There will quite rightly be concessions on both sides.

Business is awful tbh. Construction at its lowest ever and no signs of improving.

I know life is sacrosanct but this lockdown can't just stay in place like this. There'll be nothing to come back to. Maybe end of April will see an easing.
----------------------------------------------------------------------
Most of highest tariffs have been lessened via a series of WTO agreements going back to the Doha round. MFN tariffs on agri produce still remains high.

Which means most food prices will go up. And/or we'll see more shrinkflation.

Have to shoot on, but take care of yourself
----------------------------------------------------------------------

You too mate

comment by What would Stuart Pearce do? Better than Gozer the Gozerian (U3126)
posted 33 minutes ago
comment by Gingernuts (U2992)
posted 8 minutes ago
comment by What would Stuart Pearce do? Better than Goze... (U3126)
posted 11 minutes ago
comment by Gingernuts (U2992)
posted 1 hour, 19 minutes ago
comment by Great Teams Put Staff On Furlough (U1308)
posted 19 seconds ago
comment by Gingernuts (U2992)
posted 23 minutes ago
comment by Great Teams Put Staff On Furlough (U1308)
posted 7 minutes ago
comment by Gingernuts (U2992)
posted 4 minutes ago
comment by Great Teams Put Staff On Furlough (U1308)
posted 2 minutes ago
comment by Gingernuts (U2992)
posted 59 minutes ago
Have any of these 50,000 ventilators arrived anywhere yet?

How have they been shared out?
----------------------------------------------------------------------

I am sure that these supplies along with the financial help from the ECB will be fairly and evenly distributed, once all member states agree on how they will be shared and how the cost will be placed against each nation.

----------------------------------------------------------------------

I don't know if you're being facetious or not

But have any of them arrived and are in use?
----------------------------------------------------------------------


The Brussels bickering is delaying financial aid to prevent the Italian economy drowning in uncontrollable debt. It has a solid manufaturing base and good technical levels..

Spain in a similar boat will the the bottom drop out of its tourism revenue and also struggle because of this.

Yet the UK will not be taking the eurozone bailout on, and I am sure as an EU customer that import/export duties will be set high as a punishment.
----------------------------------------------------------------------

Hmmm

Wouldn't surprise me mate.

The rhetoric over the past 4 years has always had the threat of "punishment" about it.
----------------------------------------------------------------------

the EU will be desperate to contiue to export to us, I think putting import duties on good from the EU to promote our own manufacturing and products.
----------------------------------------------------------------------

I believe so too.

All this debate about JIT manufacturing and supplies preventing and threatening us works the other way and which huge organisations are going to up and run after what is likely to be the worst market crash ever faced?
----------------------------------------------------------------------
Hi Ginger, hope you're well!

The EU *will* have to levy the common external tariff to the UK as they are legally obliged to do so. It's not a matter of being pragmatic but adhering to global trade law.
----------------------------------------------------------------------

Yeah don't disagree mate but I don't think it will be as punitive as some would have us believe. There will quite rightly be concessions on both sides.

Business is awful tbh. Construction at its lowest ever and no signs of improving.

I know life is sacrosanct but this lockdown can't just stay in place like this. There'll be nothing to come back to. Maybe end of April will see an easing.
----------------------------------------------------------------------
Most of highest tariffs have been lessened via a series of WTO agreements going back to the Doha round. MFN tariffs on agri produce still remains high.

Which means most food prices will go up. And/or we'll see more shrinkflation.

Have to shoot on, but take care of yourself
----------------------------------------------------------------------

Homegrown produce won’t go up. So look seasonal, look local when possible. Buy and make your own meals rather than pre made, move towards on old school way of feeding ourselves.

comment by Great Teams Put Staff On Furlough (U1308)
posted 53 minutes ago
comment by What would Stuart Pearce do? Better than Gozer the Gozerian (U3126)
posted 33 minutes ago
comment by Gingernuts (U2992)
posted 8 minutes ago
comment by What would Stuart Pearce do? Better than Goze... (U3126)
posted 11 minutes ago
comment by Gingernuts (U2992)
posted 1 hour, 19 minutes ago
comment by Great Teams Put Staff On Furlough (U1308)
posted 19 seconds ago
comment by Gingernuts (U2992)
posted 23 minutes ago
comment by Great Teams Put Staff On Furlough (U1308)
posted 7 minutes ago
comment by Gingernuts (U2992)
posted 4 minutes ago
comment by Great Teams Put Staff On Furlough (U1308)
posted 2 minutes ago
comment by Gingernuts (U2992)
posted 59 minutes ago
Have any of these 50,000 ventilators arrived anywhere yet?

How have they been shared out?
----------------------------------------------------------------------

I am sure that these supplies along with the financial help from the ECB will be fairly and evenly distributed, once all member states agree on how they will be shared and how the cost will be placed against each nation.

----------------------------------------------------------------------

I don't know if you're being facetious or not

But have any of them arrived and are in use?
----------------------------------------------------------------------


The Brussels bickering is delaying financial aid to prevent the Italian economy drowning in uncontrollable debt. It has a solid manufaturing base and good technical levels..

Spain in a similar boat will the the bottom drop out of its tourism revenue and also struggle because of this.

Yet the UK will not be taking the eurozone bailout on, and I am sure as an EU customer that import/export duties will be set high as a punishment.
----------------------------------------------------------------------

Hmmm

Wouldn't surprise me mate.

The rhetoric over the past 4 years has always had the threat of "punishment" about it.
----------------------------------------------------------------------

the EU will be desperate to contiue to export to us, I think putting import duties on good from the EU to promote our own manufacturing and products.
----------------------------------------------------------------------

I believe so too.

All this debate about JIT manufacturing and supplies preventing and threatening us works the other way and which huge organisations are going to up and run after what is likely to be the worst market crash ever faced?
----------------------------------------------------------------------
Hi Ginger, hope you're well!

The EU *will* have to levy the common external tariff to the UK as they are legally obliged to do so. It's not a matter of being pragmatic but adhering to global trade law.
----------------------------------------------------------------------

Yeah don't disagree mate but I don't think it will be as punitive as some would have us believe. There will quite rightly be concessions on both sides.

Business is awful tbh. Construction at its lowest ever and no signs of improving.

I know life is sacrosanct but this lockdown can't just stay in place like this. There'll be nothing to come back to. Maybe end of April will see an easing.
----------------------------------------------------------------------
Most of highest tariffs have been lessened via a series of WTO agreements going back to the Doha round. MFN tariffs on agri produce still remains high.

Which means most food prices will go up. And/or we'll see more shrinkflation.

Have to shoot on, but take care of yourself
----------------------------------------------------------------------

Homegrown produce won’t go up. So look seasonal, look local when possible. Buy and make your own meals rather than pre made, move towards on old school way of feeding ourselves.


----------------------------------------------------------------------
Unfortunately it will.

Majority of seasonal produce is imported from Europe. Many commodities (fruits veg etc) the UK UK simply cannot produce due to geographical conditions.

Please see:

https://www.glotechrepairs.co.uk/news/the-uks-top-food-imports-and-where-they-come-from/

Over 70% of our food and drink is imported from Europe:

https://ec.europa.eu/info/food-farming-fisheries/farming/eu-agriculture-and-brexit_en

Likewise out of season produce is imported from South Africa, South America etc etc by way of EU preferential trade agreements. All of which have TRQ protocols.

https://ec.europa.eu/info/food-farming-fisheries/key-policies/common-agricultural-policy/market-measures/trqs_en

Maybe 50 years ago it might have been possible for people to buy locally but in our current globalised economy it's not really a feasible option.

comment by What would Stuart Pearce do? Better than Gozer the Gozerian (U3126)
posted 3 hours, 28 minutes ago
comment by Great Teams Put Staff On Furlough (U1308)
posted 53 minutes ago
comment by What would Stuart Pearce do? Better than Gozer the Gozerian (U3126)
posted 33 minutes ago
comment by Gingernuts (U2992)
posted 8 minutes ago
comment by What would Stuart Pearce do? Better than Goze... (U3126)
posted 11 minutes ago
comment by Gingernuts (U2992)
posted 1 hour, 19 minutes ago
comment by Great Teams Put Staff On Furlough (U1308)
posted 19 seconds ago
comment by Gingernuts (U2992)
posted 23 minutes ago
comment by Great Teams Put Staff On Furlough (U1308)
posted 7 minutes ago
comment by Gingernuts (U2992)
posted 4 minutes ago
comment by Great Teams Put Staff On Furlough (U1308)
posted 2 minutes ago
comment by Gingernuts (U2992)
posted 59 minutes ago
Have any of these 50,000 ventilators arrived anywhere yet?

How have they been shared out?
----------------------------------------------------------------------

I am sure that these supplies along with the financial help from the ECB will be fairly and evenly distributed, once all member states agree on how they will be shared and how the cost will be placed against each nation.

----------------------------------------------------------------------

I don't know if you're being facetious or not

But have any of them arrived and are in use?
----------------------------------------------------------------------


The Brussels bickering is delaying financial aid to prevent the Italian economy drowning in uncontrollable debt. It has a solid manufaturing base and good technical levels..

Spain in a similar boat will the the bottom drop out of its tourism revenue and also struggle because of this.

Yet the UK will not be taking the eurozone bailout on, and I am sure as an EU customer that import/export duties will be set high as a punishment.
----------------------------------------------------------------------

Hmmm

Wouldn't surprise me mate.

The rhetoric over the past 4 years has always had the threat of "punishment" about it.
----------------------------------------------------------------------

the EU will be desperate to contiue to export to us, I think putting import duties on good from the EU to promote our own manufacturing and products.
----------------------------------------------------------------------

I believe so too.

All this debate about JIT manufacturing and supplies preventing and threatening us works the other way and which huge organisations are going to up and run after what is likely to be the worst market crash ever faced?
----------------------------------------------------------------------
Hi Ginger, hope you're well!

The EU *will* have to levy the common external tariff to the UK as they are legally obliged to do so. It's not a matter of being pragmatic but adhering to global trade law.
----------------------------------------------------------------------

Yeah don't disagree mate but I don't think it will be as punitive as some would have us believe. There will quite rightly be concessions on both sides.

Business is awful tbh. Construction at its lowest ever and no signs of improving.

I know life is sacrosanct but this lockdown can't just stay in place like this. There'll be nothing to come back to. Maybe end of April will see an easing.
----------------------------------------------------------------------
Most of highest tariffs have been lessened via a series of WTO agreements going back to the Doha round. MFN tariffs on agri produce still remains high.

Which means most food prices will go up. And/or we'll see more shrinkflation.

Have to shoot on, but take care of yourself
----------------------------------------------------------------------

Homegrown produce won’t go up. So look seasonal, look local when possible. Buy and make your own meals rather than pre made, move towards on old school way of feeding ourselves.


----------------------------------------------------------------------
Unfortunately it will.

Majority of seasonal produce is imported from Europe. Many commodities (fruits veg etc) the UK UK simply cannot produce due to geographical conditions.

Please see:

https://www.glotechrepairs.co.uk/news/the-uks-top-food-imports-and-where-they-come-from/

Over 70% of our food and drink is imported from Europe:

https://ec.europa.eu/info/food-farming-fisheries/farming/eu-agriculture-and-brexit_en

Likewise out of season produce is imported from South Africa, South America etc etc by way of EU preferential trade agreements. All of which have TRQ protocols.

https://ec.europa.eu/info/food-farming-fisheries/key-policies/common-agricultural-policy/market-measures/trqs_en

Maybe 50 years ago it might have been possible for people to buy locally but in our current globalised economy it's not really a feasible option.
----------------------------------------------------------------------

About 90% of the meat I buy is British. Some cured meats are purchased through the year, but no need for mope to import, the butcher runs his own slaughterhouse so everything but chicken comes from local sources.

Fish, sometimes not possible to live on salmon alone and ensuring our fish, monger is honest on his sources from supplier.

Dairy, maybe kids yoghurts are imported?

Fruit and veg, where possible I don’t but mini corn on cob and stuff grown in Kenya, so exotic ingredients and tinned fords such as tomatoes as you correctly pointed out, have to be imported. (Spices not from UK)

Salads, I grant you will be coming in during winter from Spain, but you don’t get fat like me eating that much.

Rest of veg we use a local market, just have a ton of sprouting g broccoli. Would say 60-70% of what I buy is UK based(grown/produced)

Let’s see how this impacts on our life come the new year and upcoming recession.

It's good that you're able to sustain your needs from local businesses.

This is the exception rather than the norm based on typical on year trade analysis however.

In regard to UK butchers, 90% of slaughterhouse vets are EU nationals.  These veterinarians oversee abattoir health and safety, as well as SPS measures prior to produce being signed off for sale to butchers.  The UK plans to train it's own but there's not enough time for that now.

75% of UK abattoir staff are also from overseas. The industry is overwhelmingly reliant on EU nationals and freedom of movement (which will end). So while you may be buying 90% of your meat locally, it's an industry reliant on overseas labour. Without it, local butchers would collapse.

A good proportion of EU veterinarians have been returning back to work in Europe. 

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/amp/uk-wales-44886259

Please also see:

https://veterinary-practice.com/article/post-brexit-farming-concerns

On a wider scale as the vast majority of our food and drink is imported (circa 70%) erecting trade barriers, (a natural consequence of the withdrawal agreement) with these markets, will lead to severe impediments to supply chains, and therefore consumers. 

That said, given the government could not have foreseen covid19 when negotiating the withdrawal agreement, an extension to the transition period of at least a year or two is unavoidable.