Assen MotoGP Forecast

Well, Assen looks an interesting outing this week with the likelihood of wet weather forecast for the race throwing some extra confusion into predictions.

Will polesitter Simoncelli bin it again? Let's hope not because anyone that fast deserves to win one eventually. At least if he bins it this week, he's not likely to knock anyone else over as he might do it from the front.

What of Ben Spies? Assen seems to need a rider to have a good-handling bike, and Spies certainly has that. He's the real deal. Is today breakthrough day?

Stoner is renowned for being super fast in the wet. He always has been since his 125 days. But he's no fan of the track, especially in the wet. Will he just try and consolidate, is that even in his repertoire? Teammate Dovizioso is nearly as fast and very consistent. He showed in his 250 days he can put it to Lorenzo.

Lorenzo's first DNF for 2 years might have really knocked the stuffing out of him. Will he be just a little less relaxed on a wet track after falling at Silverstone, or will he be totally cool now he's no longer the fox being chased by the hounds?

If the Crutchlow and Edwards show isn't your favourite team, they are certainly everyone's 'second' favourite. And they're doing it based on speed, not sympathy. A bit of rain won't scare these guys away.

Of the slower guys, Rossi is probably best placed if it rains to benefit. He doesn't crash (much), but he really must beat Hayden this weekend.

My prediction is:
1) Simoncelli
2) Lorenzo
3) Stoner
4) Dovizioso
5) Crutchlow

comment by TUX (U5315)

posted on 25/6/11

At least if he bins it this week, he's not likely to knock anyone else over as he might do it from the front.
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We'll file this under 'Murray Walkerisms' lol.

Poor old Simo. He can't do anything right atm. Feel sorry for him so hopefully it'll all turn around for him soon.......Mugello maybe?
As for the race, not a classic but an absolutely faultless race by Spies. Great ride to get his first Motogp win....
Shame about Cal.
Well done 'Bradders'.
Will the real Scott Reading please stand up!!!!!!!!!! Not sure what's up with him but jeeeeez...........

comment by TellinItLikeItIs (U7260)

I knew making a prediction for Assen was dangerous, just trying to jumpstart the board is my excuse. I sure didn't anticipate my top 2 picks ending up in the grass on the first left-hander!

Simoncelli certainly changed the outcome for Stoner and Lorenzo at what should have been a track where Lorenzo got points back on the Aussie, the reverse happened.

Spies was the star of the show. That was exactly what he did many times in World SBK. He could be a serious title contender as early as next year if he keeps developing. A nice result for Yamaha celebrating 50 years.

Stoner made the best of what he had. Post-race he said he was being cautious. Once he cleared Dovi it was just a points exercise, but he would have been surprised/disappointed to see how well Lorenzo did.

This race just shows the gap between the top few fast guys and the rest. Once we have Dani injured, and Simoncelli punts Lorenzo down the road, it all became a bit boring.

Rossi, as usual, avoided the carnage and got a misleading decent result. 4th might sound encouraging on the 'new' bike, but the result relies on others binning it. A 30 second gap to the winner, who clearly buttoned off with many laps to go, shows Rossi and the Duke haven't made much ground.

With Spies now confirming himself as the real deal at this level with his first win, the next race just got interesting.

LorenzoWorld is now a place where a fast guy on a fast Honda is in front by more than a race win, a crazy guy on a fast Honda can't be trusted in close-quarters racing, and an up-and-coming Yamaha rider looks fast enough to go toe-to-toe with the current champ.