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Live Election Day Thread

Page 6730 of 6998

posted on 19/1/20

comment by Blue in the face (U22288)
posted 1 hour, 2 minutes ago
Another exceptional article by John Gray - who remains one of the most insightful thinkers of his generation.

Why the left keeps losing:

https://www.newstatesman.com/politics/uk/2020/01/why-left-keeps-losing

"Progressive thinkers have reacted to the election result in different ways. Rationalists among them blame the first-past-the post electoral system. If only Britain had European-style proportional representation, the disaster they have experienced could have been avoided. It is obviously true that the result would not have been the same. Whether PR would have produced a progressive majority is another matter. If the 2015 election had been held under the D’Hont system used in elections to the European Parliament, Nigel Farage’s Ukip would have secured 83 seats in the Commons (it won nearly four million votes). In reality, voting patterns would be different under any kind of PR, but the far right would still play a larger part in the British political system than it does now. Progressives talk of building the kind of majority they want, as if it somehow already latently exists. More likely, parties of the far right would set the political agenda, as they do throughout much of the continent. If you want a European-style voting system, you get a European style of politics."
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I disagree with that, My guess is that hes pro conservative, and he knows they will be hit the hardest because they only fully appeal to a narrow band of people, and rely on being the "Next best" party for many.

Essentially this is how the last election played out, and why the brexit party didnt stand in tory constituencies, preferring to be little more than a vehicle to split labour votes. To great effect i might add.

He uses the D'Hont system as an example, which was a compromise to us... And most want a proper PR system.

If that means that any policy needs to appeal to a wide enough base then that automatically cuts off fringe policies and far right/left thinking. As well as meaning we dont hit reset everytime we form a new government...

Its like trump rolling back everything obama did, and the next democrat will roll back all trumps policies, Consensus prevents it, and is a far more adult and stable way to do things

comment by Admin1 (U1)

posted on 19/1/20

I don't doubt there are mistakes the left make and that right certainly seem to have more strategic nuance as to wooing the psychology of the voter. But it may be political fashion as much as anything that has us where we are. Analysis is always easy in hindsight.

posted on 19/1/20

comment by Insert random username (U10647)
posted 44 minutes ago
comment by Blue in the face (U22288)
posted 1 hour, 2 minutes ago
Another exceptional article by John Gray - who remains one of the most insightful thinkers of his generation.

Why the left keeps losing:

https://www.newstatesman.com/politics/uk/2020/01/why-left-keeps-losing

"Progressive thinkers have reacted to the election result in different ways. Rationalists among them blame the first-past-the post electoral system. If only Britain had European-style proportional representation, the disaster they have experienced could have been avoided. It is obviously true that the result would not have been the same. Whether PR would have produced a progressive majority is another matter. If the 2015 election had been held under the D’Hont system used in elections to the European Parliament, Nigel Farage’s Ukip would have secured 83 seats in the Commons (it won nearly four million votes). In reality, voting patterns would be different under any kind of PR, but the far right would still play a larger part in the British political system than it does now. Progressives talk of building the kind of majority they want, as if it somehow already latently exists. More likely, parties of the far right would set the political agenda, as they do throughout much of the continent. If you want a European-style voting system, you get a European style of politics."
----------------------------------------------------------------------
I disagree with that, My guess is that hes pro conservative, and he knows they will be hit the hardest because they only fully appeal to a narrow band of people, and rely on being the "Next best" party for many.

Essentially this is how the last election played out, and why the brexit party didnt stand in tory constituencies, preferring to be little more than a vehicle to split labour votes. To great effect i might add.

He uses the D'Hont system as an example, which was a compromise to us... And most want a proper PR system.

If that means that any policy needs to appeal to a wide enough base then that automatically cuts off fringe policies and far right/left thinking. As well as meaning we dont hit reset everytime we form a new government...

Its like trump rolling back everything obama did, and the next democrat will roll back all trumps policies, Consensus prevents it, and is a far more adult and stable way to do things
----------------------------------------------------------------------

John Gray is conservative philosophically, but has voted and supported Labour in the past. To be fair, he is one of the most read and debated contemporary thinkers, so his legacy and views have a somewhat "in the eye of the beholder" perception attached to them.

I have to be honest, I do not really understand the rest of your argument. Which is probably a failure of my own cognition than the relative eloquence of your position.

posted on 19/1/20

The rest of the piece is fascinating. I think it probably articulately refutes arguments made by Rosso and Insert (respectfully) with a level of intelligence beyond my own mental faculties.

posted on 19/1/20

comment by Admin1 (U1)
posted 4 minutes ago
I don't doubt there are mistakes the left make and that right certainly seem to have more strategic nuance as to wooing the psychology of the voter. But it may be political fashion as much as anything that has us where we are. Analysis is always easy in hindsight.
----------------------------------------------------------------------

I think there is a permanence, or at least long-term shift when it comes to the importance of cultural values. People on here have claimed, in my view flippantly, that the Labour vote going to the Brexit party and the Tories at the past two elections across Midlands and Northern seats is exclusively a condition of Brexit.

I really don't think it is. Brexit was merely a catalsyst that allowed people to realise the differences between Labour's policies and their own worldview. Especially on crime immigration, and the importance of national sovereignty.

For as many marginal seats the Conservatives have in the "red wall" there are many marginal Labour seats that are suddenly in play for the Tories. I think we could see a wipeout Scotland-style in 2024.

posted on 19/1/20

When it comes to not understanding Insert's response, I see zero evidence the Conservative party appeals to the narrowest band of people. To the contrary, its coalition of support is much wider and than Corbyn's labour party.

I also think PR is actually more likely to not remove extreme wings, but incorporate them. Grand coalitions would be toxic in this country.

comment by Admin1 (U1)

posted on 19/1/20

comment by Blue in the face (U22288)
posted 4 minutes ago
comment by Admin1 (U1)
posted 4 minutes ago
I don't doubt there are mistakes the left make and that right certainly seem to have more strategic nuance as to wooing the psychology of the voter. But it may be political fashion as much as anything that has us where we are. Analysis is always easy in hindsight.
----------------------------------------------------------------------

I think there is a permanence, or at least long-term shift when it comes to the importance of cultural values. People on here have claimed, in my view flippantly, that the Labour vote going to the Brexit party and the Tories at the past two elections across Midlands and Northern seats is exclusively a condition of Brexit.

I really don't think it is. Brexit was merely a catalsyst that allowed people to realise the differences between Labour's policies and their own worldview. Especially on crime immigration, and the importance of national sovereignty.

For as many marginal seats the Conservatives have in the "red wall" there are many marginal Labour seats that are suddenly in play for the Tories. I think we could see a wipeout Scotland-style in 2024.
----------------------------------------------------------------------
Cultural values. I'm not entirely sure that's very fixed at all... In 60-70s culturally a women's role was in the house. Casual racism is something that continued way in to the 80s. Homophobia and using the term gay as an insult was commonplace in the 1990s.

The rise of the right and populism will ebb and flow over the coming decades. I think the fashion towards
primarily environmental political positioning might be something that dominates the tail end of the 2020s

comment by Admin1 (U1)

posted on 19/1/20

A single dirty bomb or pandemic could shape thinking in other ways I haven't even comprehended

posted on 19/1/20

I think the environmental positioning has as much tendency to alienate as it does to unify people.

When it comes to cultural values, I think - could be wrong- you are misunderstanding what I mean.

I am not saying this will see a rebirth of the nuclear family nor even a return to s*xual mores from the 1970s. Politics does not work like that - and to be honest, increasing numbers of people from Islamic backgrounds in the UK is more likely to result in calls for that sort of thing than the increasing importance of the so-called Red Wall.

Instead, what I am saying is that an entire third of Labour's coalition of support fundamentally disagrees on key issues that go right to the heart of understand the purpose and value of a left wing party. Things like the value of our country in the world, it's history, it's legacy, it's heritage, it's customs. The things that get to the core of what we think about ourselves.

Reality is that millennials, city liberals, activists (and middle England lib-dem/tory floaters tbf) are at total odds on these identity questions to the midlands and northern labour voters. This is as much an issue for them now as the surf's up wave of yellow that stunned Labour in scotland four years ago. Which was actually built on tne years of crumbling authority.

posted on 19/1/20

comment by Admin1 (U1)
posted 13 minutes ago
A single dirty bomb or pandemic could shape thinking in other ways I haven't even comprehended
----------------------------------------------------------------------

Yes, but that's not really a credible answer, as the likelihood of that is low compared to the likelihood of what i am saying.

I am sure first contact with aliens would totally change how global power sturctures work.

comment by Admin1 (U1)

posted on 19/1/20

When it comes to cultural values, I think - could be wrong- you are misunderstanding what I mean.
-----------------------------------------
Yeah I think I am. I'm probably mixing fashion and culture to an extent.

posted on 19/1/20

Admin, perhaps to avoid confusion, what I mean is "identity" issues. Recognise culture is a broad and loose term, and that it doesn't mean the same thing to liberals and culture.

I mean history, sense of place, personal values etc.

posted on 19/1/20

* liberal and conservatives

comment by Admin1 (U1)

posted on 19/1/20

comment by Blue in the face (U22288)
posted 6 minutes ago
Admin, perhaps to avoid confusion, what I mean is "identity" issues. Recognise culture is a broad and loose term, and that it doesn't mean the same thing to liberals and culture.

I mean history, sense of place, personal values etc.
-----------------------------------------------------------------
Even the term identity I still cant help but assign a projection of fashion around it.

posted on 19/1/20

comment by Admin1 (U1)
posted 31 seconds ago
comment by Blue in the face (U22288)
posted 6 minutes ago
Admin, perhaps to avoid confusion, what I mean is "identity" issues. Recognise culture is a broad and loose term, and that it doesn't mean the same thing to liberals and culture.

I mean history, sense of place, personal values etc.
-----------------------------------------------------------------
Even the term identity I still cant help but assign a projection of fashion around it.
----------------------------------------------------------------------

Ah I think identity issues are normally very deep-seated and not as malleable as people like to believe.

comment by Admin1 (U1)

posted on 19/1/20

comment by Blue in the face (U22288)
posted less than a minute ago
comment by Admin1 (U1)
posted 31 seconds ago
comment by Blue in the face (U22288)
posted 6 minutes ago
Admin, perhaps to avoid confusion, what I mean is "identity" issues. Recognise culture is a broad and loose term, and that it doesn't mean the same thing to liberals and culture.

I mean history, sense of place, personal values etc.
-----------------------------------------------------------------
Even the term identity I still cant help but assign a projection of fashion around it.
----------------------------------------------------------------------

Ah I think identity issues are normally very deep-seated and not as malleable as people like to believe.

----------------------------------------------------------------------
I think that's possibly where we disagree. I could do well be wrong.

posted on 19/1/20

comment by Admin1 (U1)
posted 1 hour, 1 minute ago
comment by Blue in the face (U22288)
posted less than a minute ago
comment by Admin1 (U1)
posted 31 seconds ago
comment by Blue in the face (U22288)
posted 6 minutes ago
Admin, perhaps to avoid confusion, what I mean is "identity" issues. Recognise culture is a broad and loose term, and that it doesn't mean the same thing to liberals and culture.

I mean history, sense of place, personal values etc.
-----------------------------------------------------------------
Even the term identity I still cant help but assign a projection of fashion around it.
----------------------------------------------------------------------

Ah I think identity issues are normally very deep-seated and not as malleable as people like to believe.

----------------------------------------------------------------------
I think that's possibly where we disagree. I could do well be wrong.
----------------------------------------------------------------------

Indeed. Brexit to me was a long time in the making and based on generational factors - not bus pledges.

comment by Admin1 (U1)

posted on 19/1/20

Yeah I probably see it as a popular zeitgeist that before 2004 almost nobody discussed on week to the next. Quite separate from immigration issues that of course were more actively discussed. It's also clearly a manifestation of long standing economic and identity issues for sure, however misplaced it might be.

posted on 19/1/20

Or however well-placed it might be

posted on 19/1/20

The so called baby of the house Nadia Whittome is getting alot of publicity as not only is she 23 but also she is giving over half her salary to the poor.

Shes another social justice campaigner whos probably got Jeremy Corbyn wallpaper, an XR badge and a never kissed a Tory t-shirt. I fear we are going to see alot of her over the next 5 years.

posted on 19/1/20

To be fair to Nadia, I respect people who are prepared to live by the beliefs that they hold. It is also a remarkable accomplishment to be a member of parliament at that age. Too young perhaps, but how many people her age complain and protest about the state of the world but never take any kind of risk in doing so?

Declaring yourself publicly as a candidate, expressing political views and policies, and then campaigning on them is actually a lot more substantive than the alternative.

I say this despite the fact I am likely to disagree with her. I imagine her views are mostly stupid, her arguments poor, but she has substance.

Expect Parliament will be a rude awakening to her, especially as a member of the opposition party - cross bench agreements are going to be the only way she has any influence. So, a hero of Twitter. Hardly worth getting worked up over.

posted on 19/1/20

comment by Blue in the face (U22288)
posted 16 minutes ago
To be fair to Nadia, I respect people who are prepared to live by the beliefs that they hold. It is also a remarkable accomplishment to be a member of parliament at that age. Too young perhaps, but how many people her age complain and protest about the state of the world but never take any kind of risk in doing so?

Declaring yourself publicly as a candidate, expressing political views and policies, and then campaigning on them is actually a lot more substantive than the alternative.

I say this despite the fact I am likely to disagree with her. I imagine her views are mostly stupid, her arguments poor, but she has substance.

Expect Parliament will be a rude awakening to her, especially as a member of the opposition party - cross bench agreements are going to be the only way she has any influence. So, a hero of Twitter. Hardly worth getting worked up over.

----------------------------------------------------------------------
I'm not worked up but I think people should have lived a bit themselves before standing. I would make the minimum age for an mp 35 and hopefully that will allow these young lefty studenty types time to get married, have kids, get a mortgage and join the golf club.

The last thing the Labour party needs (if it ever wants to govern again) is young Momentum supporters representing it at Westminster.

If we are not careful Greta Thunberg will be standing at the next GE.

posted on 19/1/20

comment by PawlBawron (U1055)
posted 1 hour, 16 minutes ago
comment by Blue in the face (U22288)
posted 16 minutes ago
To be fair to Nadia, I respect people who are prepared to live by the beliefs that they hold. It is also a remarkable accomplishment to be a member of parliament at that age. Too young perhaps, but how many people her age complain and protest about the state of the world but never take any kind of risk in doing so?

Declaring yourself publicly as a candidate, expressing political views and policies, and then campaigning on them is actually a lot more substantive than the alternative.

I say this despite the fact I am likely to disagree with her. I imagine her views are mostly stupid, her arguments poor, but she has substance.

Expect Parliament will be a rude awakening to her, especially as a member of the opposition party - cross bench agreements are going to be the only way she has any influence. So, a hero of Twitter. Hardly worth getting worked up over.

----------------------------------------------------------------------
I'm not worked up but I think people should have lived a bit themselves before standing. I would make the minimum age for an mp 35 and hopefully that will allow these young lefty studenty types time to get married, have kids, get a mortgage and join the golf club.

The last thing the Labour party needs (if it ever wants to govern again) is young Momentum supporters representing it at Westminster.

If we are not careful Greta Thunberg will be standing at the next GE.
----------------------------------------------------------------------
George Osborne was chancellor and his most relevant qualification was a Math A-level.

His work experience was folding beach towels at his parents resort, he then went in to the political sphere..

So I agree, people should have work and life experience before being a PM.

comment by Blarmy (U14547)

posted on 20/1/20

Cultural history is probably the messiest

Its hard to actually define what is and isnt under the remit of culture

comment by Blarmy (U14547)

posted on 20/1/20

Messiest to study*

I remember we had an hour long argument in a uni seminar once as to whether any animals have culture

Page 6730 of 6998

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