Confirming Kane is the boy.
Who gave Hafi a job at the Beeb?
Kane is better than Lukaku. Conclusive.
I guessed 0.3% for the Matic one rather than 3% which surprised me before I realised that would mean only 1 in 333 shots from that range were scored. 1 in 33 seems more realistic.
comment by Spurtle2 (U1608)
posted 2 minutes ago
Kane is better than Lukaku. Conclusive.
----------------------------------------------------------------------
Don't think anyone in their right mind would have been debating this anyway....
Isn't 1 the maximum possible xG rating?
comment by goadocwatson (U1016)
posted 2 minutes ago
Isn't 1 the maximum possible xG rating?
----------------------------------------------------------------------
Yeah... but it was converted to a percentage for the quiz...
comment by The Candlestick Maker (U8959)
posted 4 minutes ago
I guessed 0.3% for the Matic one rather than 3% which surprised me before I realised that would mean only 1 in 333 shots from that range were scored. 1 in 33 seems more realistic.
----------------------------------------------------------------------
Yep... makes more sense when described in those terms... also further highlights the quality of that kane finish which is at 4%
Confirms what we already knew. Aguero is deadwood. Get rid asap.
Hasn't Aguero always had a bit of a reputation for needing more chances than others
He's ridden off the back of that goal against QPR 5 years ago for too long imo.
Based on this forum United should have scored every single chance they had last season and it was disgrace we didn't and certain players should have been put down.
Players miss chances, even the better ones, they're human. They even sometimes score the harder chances, that's the beauty of football, you can't turn it into equations because the situation of every single moment in a game will differ based on a multitude of variables.
Good thing MOTD is trying to introduce this statistic into the footballing public's consciousness.
One assertion in the article I have to take exception to though:
"So if your team is performing above or below expectations at the start of the new season, a look at their expected goals difference could tell you whether that run is likely to last."
xG is an average of historical shots by all players. The average will have consisted of data taken from good players, poor players, and everything in between. So an above-average team will score more goals than their xG data suggests. And a below-average team will score less goals than their xG data suggests. There is no reason to expect that a team's actual goals scored will always tend towards their xG as the season progresses, since averages are a group characteristic and not an individual characteristic.
Players miss chances, even the better ones, they're human. They even sometimes score the harder chances, that's the beauty of football, you can't turn it into equations because the situation of every single moment in a game will differ based on a multitude of variables.
---------------
Well actually, if you take 300,000 shots and characterise each one by 7 different variables, then work out on average how often a particular type of shot went in, then you can get a pretty good predictive model for future shots. And besides, it doesn't have to be used predictively - you can use it in hindsight to look at a shot and say "Well he had a 79% chance of scoring there - he probably should have"
I think this sort of data will have a much bigger impact on the game with regards to how managers train and develop playing style. I bet if you analyse someone like Barcelona you will see that a majority of their chances are from position of very high expected goal number. i.e close to 1xG.
Mangers can adapt their style and tactics to make sure that chances are taken from positions where their is the highest opportunity to score.
What decline in agrueros game?
I think this sort of data will have a much bigger impact on the game with regards to how managers train and develop playing style. I bet if you analyse someone like Barcelona you will see that a majority of their chances are from position of very high expected goal number. i.e close to 1xG.
Mangers can adapt their style and tactics to make sure that chances are taken from positions where their is the highest opportunity to score.
-----------
Thing is xG is based on more than just position. There's 7 different variables that Opta's system looks at and it's difficult to tell your players to try to create chances that fit a certain profile (e.g. headed chance from a cross 6 yards from goal and slightly to the left with only the keeper to beat). What the statistic should be used for is review of how well your attacking gameplan works, not to actually choreograph your attacking gameplan.
comment by renoog (U4449)
posted 3 minutes ago
I think this sort of data will have a much bigger impact on the game with regards to how managers train and develop playing style. I bet if you analyse someone like Barcelona you will see that a majority of their chances are from position of very high expected goal number. i.e close to 1xG.
Mangers can adapt their style and tactics to make sure that chances are taken from positions where their is the highest opportunity to score.
-----------
Thing is xG is based on more than just position. There's 7 different variables that Opta's system looks at and it's difficult to tell your players to try to create chances that fit a certain profile (e.g. headed chance from a cross 6 yards from goal and slightly to the left with only the keeper to beat). What the statistic should be used for is review of how well your attacking gameplan works, not to actually choreograph your attacking gameplan.
----------------------------------------------------------------------
Yes this is what it should be used for. Evaluation. Managers and players already know what aboard chance and an easier chance looks like. They don't need telling.
From a fans perspective it's awesome, we have some serious data to back up our thoughts and to debate.
comment by Stretty - mr mourinho (U3123)
posted 15 minutes ago
What decline in agrueros game?
----------------------------------------------------------------------
No ones bitting that nugget 😂
comment by gratedbean (U4885)
posted 1 hour, 12 minutes ago
He's ridden off the back of that goal against QPR 5 years ago for too long imo.
----------------------------------------------------------------------
Admittedly I don't watch him every week, but from what I see on telly he's still terrific.
Rumours went round that he's not the best trainer, maybe he got away with that more when he was the main man (or maybe that's bolox too, people make up a lot of crap about city and United players)
comment by The Post Nearly Man. Still partial to an Owsley's Old Original (U1270)
posted 6 minutes ago
comment by gratedbean (U4885)
posted 1 hour, 12 minutes ago
He's ridden off the back of that goal against QPR 5 years ago for too long imo.
----------------------------------------------------------------------
Admittedly I don't watch him every week, but from what I see on telly he's still terrific.
Rumours went round that he's not the best trainer, maybe he got away with that more when he was the main man (or maybe that's bolox too, people make up a lot of crap about city and United players)
----------------------------------------------------------------------
He's just had his highest scoring season ever.
Aguero doesn't deserve the record for the most goals-to-minutes ratio in PL history.
Give it to someone who cost more.
comment by Boris 'Inky' Gibson (U5901)
posted 2 minutes ago
Aguero doesn't deserve the record for the most goals-to-minutes ratio in PL history.
Give it to someone who cost more.
----------------------------------------------------------------------
👍
comment by LQ (U6305)
posted 20 minutes ago
comment by The Post Nearly Man. Still partial to an Owsley's Old Original (U1270)
posted 6 minutes ago
comment by gratedbean (U4885)
posted 1 hour, 12 minutes ago
He's ridden off the back of that goal against QPR 5 years ago for too long imo.
----------------------------------------------------------------------
Admittedly I don't watch him every week, but from what I see on telly he's still terrific.
Rumours went round that he's not the best trainer, maybe he got away with that more when he was the main man (or maybe that's bolox too, people make up a lot of crap about city and United players)
----------------------------------------------------------------------
He's just had his highest scoring season ever.
----------------------------------------------------------------------
and everyone likes him because he's dead honest on the pitch as well. Great player. Would love to know what's in Guardiola's head about him though.
Sign in if you want to comment
Expected goals
Page 1 of 2
posted on 10/8/17
Confirming Kane is the boy.
posted on 10/8/17
Who gave Hafi a job at the Beeb?
posted on 10/8/17
Kane is better than Lukaku. Conclusive.
posted on 10/8/17
I guessed 0.3% for the Matic one rather than 3% which surprised me before I realised that would mean only 1 in 333 shots from that range were scored. 1 in 33 seems more realistic.
posted on 10/8/17
comment by Spurtle2 (U1608)
posted 2 minutes ago
Kane is better than Lukaku. Conclusive.
----------------------------------------------------------------------
Don't think anyone in their right mind would have been debating this anyway....
posted on 10/8/17
Isn't 1 the maximum possible xG rating?
posted on 10/8/17
comment by goadocwatson (U1016)
posted 2 minutes ago
Isn't 1 the maximum possible xG rating?
----------------------------------------------------------------------
Yeah... but it was converted to a percentage for the quiz...
posted on 10/8/17
comment by The Candlestick Maker (U8959)
posted 4 minutes ago
I guessed 0.3% for the Matic one rather than 3% which surprised me before I realised that would mean only 1 in 333 shots from that range were scored. 1 in 33 seems more realistic.
----------------------------------------------------------------------
Yep... makes more sense when described in those terms... also further highlights the quality of that kane finish which is at 4%
posted on 10/8/17
Confirms what we already knew. Aguero is deadwood. Get rid asap.
posted on 10/8/17
This is brilliant.....
posted on 10/8/17
Hasn't Aguero always had a bit of a reputation for needing more chances than others
posted on 10/8/17
He's ridden off the back of that goal against QPR 5 years ago for too long imo.
posted on 10/8/17
Based on this forum United should have scored every single chance they had last season and it was disgrace we didn't and certain players should have been put down.
Players miss chances, even the better ones, they're human. They even sometimes score the harder chances, that's the beauty of football, you can't turn it into equations because the situation of every single moment in a game will differ based on a multitude of variables.
posted on 10/8/17
Good thing MOTD is trying to introduce this statistic into the footballing public's consciousness.
One assertion in the article I have to take exception to though:
"So if your team is performing above or below expectations at the start of the new season, a look at their expected goals difference could tell you whether that run is likely to last."
xG is an average of historical shots by all players. The average will have consisted of data taken from good players, poor players, and everything in between. So an above-average team will score more goals than their xG data suggests. And a below-average team will score less goals than their xG data suggests. There is no reason to expect that a team's actual goals scored will always tend towards their xG as the season progresses, since averages are a group characteristic and not an individual characteristic.
posted on 10/8/17
Players miss chances, even the better ones, they're human. They even sometimes score the harder chances, that's the beauty of football, you can't turn it into equations because the situation of every single moment in a game will differ based on a multitude of variables.
---------------
Well actually, if you take 300,000 shots and characterise each one by 7 different variables, then work out on average how often a particular type of shot went in, then you can get a pretty good predictive model for future shots. And besides, it doesn't have to be used predictively - you can use it in hindsight to look at a shot and say "Well he had a 79% chance of scoring there - he probably should have"
posted on 10/8/17
I think this sort of data will have a much bigger impact on the game with regards to how managers train and develop playing style. I bet if you analyse someone like Barcelona you will see that a majority of their chances are from position of very high expected goal number. i.e close to 1xG.
Mangers can adapt their style and tactics to make sure that chances are taken from positions where their is the highest opportunity to score.
posted on 10/8/17
What decline in agrueros game?
posted on 10/8/17
I think this sort of data will have a much bigger impact on the game with regards to how managers train and develop playing style. I bet if you analyse someone like Barcelona you will see that a majority of their chances are from position of very high expected goal number. i.e close to 1xG.
Mangers can adapt their style and tactics to make sure that chances are taken from positions where their is the highest opportunity to score.
-----------
Thing is xG is based on more than just position. There's 7 different variables that Opta's system looks at and it's difficult to tell your players to try to create chances that fit a certain profile (e.g. headed chance from a cross 6 yards from goal and slightly to the left with only the keeper to beat). What the statistic should be used for is review of how well your attacking gameplan works, not to actually choreograph your attacking gameplan.
posted on 10/8/17
comment by renoog (U4449)
posted 3 minutes ago
I think this sort of data will have a much bigger impact on the game with regards to how managers train and develop playing style. I bet if you analyse someone like Barcelona you will see that a majority of their chances are from position of very high expected goal number. i.e close to 1xG.
Mangers can adapt their style and tactics to make sure that chances are taken from positions where their is the highest opportunity to score.
-----------
Thing is xG is based on more than just position. There's 7 different variables that Opta's system looks at and it's difficult to tell your players to try to create chances that fit a certain profile (e.g. headed chance from a cross 6 yards from goal and slightly to the left with only the keeper to beat). What the statistic should be used for is review of how well your attacking gameplan works, not to actually choreograph your attacking gameplan.
----------------------------------------------------------------------
Yes this is what it should be used for. Evaluation. Managers and players already know what aboard chance and an easier chance looks like. They don't need telling.
From a fans perspective it's awesome, we have some serious data to back up our thoughts and to debate.
posted on 10/8/17
comment by Stretty - mr mourinho (U3123)
posted 15 minutes ago
What decline in agrueros game?
----------------------------------------------------------------------
No ones bitting that nugget 😂
posted on 10/8/17
comment by gratedbean (U4885)
posted 1 hour, 12 minutes ago
He's ridden off the back of that goal against QPR 5 years ago for too long imo.
----------------------------------------------------------------------
Admittedly I don't watch him every week, but from what I see on telly he's still terrific.
Rumours went round that he's not the best trainer, maybe he got away with that more when he was the main man (or maybe that's bolox too, people make up a lot of crap about city and United players)
posted on 10/8/17
comment by The Post Nearly Man. Still partial to an Owsley's Old Original (U1270)
posted 6 minutes ago
comment by gratedbean (U4885)
posted 1 hour, 12 minutes ago
He's ridden off the back of that goal against QPR 5 years ago for too long imo.
----------------------------------------------------------------------
Admittedly I don't watch him every week, but from what I see on telly he's still terrific.
Rumours went round that he's not the best trainer, maybe he got away with that more when he was the main man (or maybe that's bolox too, people make up a lot of crap about city and United players)
----------------------------------------------------------------------
He's just had his highest scoring season ever.
posted on 10/8/17
Aguero doesn't deserve the record for the most goals-to-minutes ratio in PL history.
Give it to someone who cost more.
posted on 10/8/17
comment by Boris 'Inky' Gibson (U5901)
posted 2 minutes ago
Aguero doesn't deserve the record for the most goals-to-minutes ratio in PL history.
Give it to someone who cost more.
----------------------------------------------------------------------
👍
posted on 10/8/17
comment by LQ (U6305)
posted 20 minutes ago
comment by The Post Nearly Man. Still partial to an Owsley's Old Original (U1270)
posted 6 minutes ago
comment by gratedbean (U4885)
posted 1 hour, 12 minutes ago
He's ridden off the back of that goal against QPR 5 years ago for too long imo.
----------------------------------------------------------------------
Admittedly I don't watch him every week, but from what I see on telly he's still terrific.
Rumours went round that he's not the best trainer, maybe he got away with that more when he was the main man (or maybe that's bolox too, people make up a lot of crap about city and United players)
----------------------------------------------------------------------
He's just had his highest scoring season ever.
----------------------------------------------------------------------
and everyone likes him because he's dead honest on the pitch as well. Great player. Would love to know what's in Guardiola's head about him though.
Page 1 of 2