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Possession stats, what do they mean?

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posted on 12/11/18

Although I wasn't there, I managed to find a stream, and it is fair to say Wolves controlled when and where Arsenal had possesion.

For the most part they were allowed to pass along the back, and move it side to side, but as soon as they were in the danger areas in midfield the space was quickly closed down. For all their possession they wern't really hurting us, while we were always looking to break and probably created the better chances.

One things for sure, we were more than in the game, and Arsenal can count themselves fortunate to get a point

comment by Fiddy (U11570)

posted on 12/11/18

Wolves closed them out and they had no answer whatsoever, Arsenal will be lucky to play any euro football next season

I’m gonna go let them know

posted on 12/11/18

I think we have all agreed that possession with no penetration is going to achieve little.

Passing is more important than possession has ever been which I have preached for a long time and I think we do that pretty well.

comment by Fiddy (U11570)

posted on 12/11/18

I think most on ‘ere’ would agree with Cinci now that the oldgard have left, and a more modern European feel to the club has been achieved yes ?

posted on 12/11/18

As the away side, Wolves let Arsenal play the ball around. The onus is on Arsenal to win the match, as they're at home. That's why their passing stats are higher. Wolves game plan was to contain the arsies and attack when they could.

posted on 12/11/18

I watched Dortmund v Bayern on Saturday play one of the best out and out attacking games I've seen in years. Watch that and you can see why Germany beat Brazil 7-1 . Dortmund won and are top of the BL, scoring 33 in 11games. Their average possession stat in those games is only 52%.
The lesson is that an out and out thrilling to watch attacking team will not have a high possession stat, the teams that pass 15 btimes and gain 5 yards do that. If Dortmund make 5 passed from their own pen area it's highly likely they'll be in the opposition area.

posted on 12/11/18

* passes

posted on 13/11/18

comment by โ˜  Tube of Lies โ˜• (U16473)
posted 2 hours, 7 minutes ago
As the away side, Wolves let Arsenal play the ball around. The onus is on Arsenal to win the match, as they're at home. That's why their passing stats are higher. Wolves game plan was to contain the arsies and attack when they could.
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This as well, the 'better' side will generally be expected to have the ball, hence we have it more against the lesser teams and don't against the 'better' teams.

No doubt we take far more care of the ball these days in our play than we did two years ago though.

posted on 13/11/18

I do think it’s better to have the ball rather than not have it so possession is important. And in terms of passing it’s better to pass the ball to a team mate rather than to the opposition so pass accuracy is important. But I do think that to get any real impression of a game you have to look at all the stats together. The only stat that means anything in isolation is goals scored.

The first half at Arsenal is a good example of how looking at a few stats can be misleading. Arsenal had far more of the ball, their pass accuracy was much higher than us and they spent much more time in our back third than we did in theirs. But Patricio had nothing to do. Arsenal had 3 shots none on target. Wolves had 7 shots 3 on target.

And watching the game live the overall perception was that Wolves were the better team in that half and deserved to be ahead

posted on 13/11/18

Our game plan is to allow the other team possession in their own half and force them into tight spaces where we can win the ball back when in our half. This is something Cav, Costa and Jimenez did really well at the weekend. Both Cav and Costa tucked in a lot cutting off the ball into midfield unless they drop really deep, whilst Jimenez cut off any other forward passing channels.

This meant that Arsenal had a lot of possession, but most of it was non-threatening passing between the back line. Holding, Mustafi, Xhaka and Torreira saw a lot of the ball, they each had more than twice the amount of touches than anyone else in the Arsenal team (three times more than Aubameyang, Iwobi and Lacazette) but most of it was possession for possessions sake.

I think we were sloppy in possession at times and gave the ball away needlessly; which helped lead to an increased unbalance in the possession stats. However, if you look at our stats, the possession is spread more evenly throughout the team (with Doherty having the most touches). Our forwards were on the ball just as much as the defenders as we looked to move the ball quickly and create a 1 v1 with a defender somewhere on the pitch.

posted on 13/11/18

I think we all agree that passing for passing's sake merely to retain possession is rarely beneficial but retaining possession whilst advancing towards the opposition goal by means of fast, accurate passing is a joy to behold.
Anyone who saw Man City's Gundogan score against United after a move involving 44 passes can't fail to be impressed.

posted on 13/11/18

I think fast is the key part of that gem. Nothing more boring than seeing a team slowly pass the ball around sideways and backwards to try to just hold the ball (memories of Solbakken). But when the passing is quick and purposeful its great to watch.

One feature of the Wolves game I also love is the long passing of Coady and particularly Neves who can both drop the ball on the feet of players 50 yards away which is ideal for games like Saturday when we were reliant on breakaways. We regularly see those passes to the wing backs, and on Saturday we were regularly finding Costa in space to cause havoc, then three times in the last few minutes long passes from Neves to Traore almost lead to a winning goal.

posted on 13/11/18

Can anyone explain the expected goals statistic on the games.?
Is it based on chances ?

Incidentally, we had a full goal higher than the Gunners !!

comment by NUTS (U21985)

posted on 13/11/18

comment by Cinciwolf---so glad I wasn't careful what I wished for!! (U11551)
posted 16 hours, 47 minutes ago
I think we have all agreed that possession with no penetration is going to achieve little.

Passing is more important than possession has ever been which I have preached for a long time and I think we do that pretty well.
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The problem with possession stats, as shown in this article, is that most people do not understand how possession stats are calculated

They are actually calculated by dividing the total passes made by a team by the total amount of passes made in the match

So possession stats actually do relate to passing rather than ball retention

posted on 13/11/18

Yeah it’s a point I’ve made before. If a player runs 40 yards with the ball and beats three opponents it counts for little in the possession stats but is generally far more valuable than passing the ball 5 yards to a team mate in midfield

Also when it comes to assists it’s given to the player that makes the last touch before the scorer. But quite often it’s something before that which is the bigger contribution towards creating the goal

Stats on their own only give a limited understanding of a game

posted on 13/11/18

Seems quite a complicated calculation to me this expected goals. Opta have worked out some stats after studying hundreds of games to give a % chance of scoring depending on where the shot or header was made. A shot from 30 yards would get a low percentage maybe 5%, a one on one with the keeper quite high maybe 50%, and an open goal very high, over 90%.

At the end of the game the percentages are worked out for each player and each team to say how many goals you would expect them to score considering the positions they got into for an attempt on goal

posted on 13/11/18

So if a player got through one on one with the keeper three times in the game you would expect him to score 3 x 50% = 1.5

posted on 13/11/18

Thanks for that, so Wolves should on the balance of chances won fairly easily.
Shame is its only the back of the net that counts.
Also we should have beaten Brighton by 4 goals to nil.

Just saying.

posted on 13/11/18

Not sure why we bother with statistics (in any game. come to think of it). It's total bollox. What matters in the end, is who scored the most goals, runs, points etc.

posted on 13/11/18

Wolves U23s lost their friendly in Jumilla yesterday by 1-0 against a team that included 8 Wolves loanees. It was a young Wolves team that played with most of the star members of the team staying in the UK to train with the first team. Iorfa was in the team, and the lesser spotted Ebanks Landell proved he was still alive by playing too.

Quite a few years ago Wolves took an unknown right back from Bohemians, Matt Doherty. They are now on the point of signing another right back from the same club. 18 year old Andrew Lyons was in the team that played in Jumilla, lets hope he does as well for us as Matt.

posted on 13/11/18

Ten Wolves players on international duty in the next week. Jonny, Patricio, Neves, Saiss, Doherty, Jiminez, Dendoncker for their full international teams. Vinagre and Jota for U21s. All those teams have two matches. Gibbs White plays in a tournament for England U19s and they have 3 games in a week

posted on 13/11/18

Jonny Otto has been recalled by the Spanish national team after impressing in his first start for his country against England in October.

The wing-back, who has started every Premier League match for Wolves this season, is one of ten players who have now departed Molineux for international duty.

Many of the Wolves players are set to be involved in the UEFA Nations League, with the matchday five and six fixtures bringing the group stage of the competition to a close this week.

Jonny will be hoping to be part of the Spain side which is taking on Croatia in Zagreb on Thursday - with a place in the Nations League semi-finals at stake - as well as the friendly versus Bosnia and Herzegovina at the Estadio de Gran Canaria Las Palmas on Sunday.

After being left out of the last Belgium squad, Leander Dendoncker has earned a recall by Roberto Martínez for his county’s two Nations League games against Iceland on Thursday in Brussels and against Switzerland on Sunday in Luzern.

Goalkeeper Rui Patricio and midfielder Ruben Neves have kept hold of their regular spots in the Portugal squad as they travel to the San Siro to face Italy in the Nations League on Saturday. They return to their homeland next Tuesday night for their final Nations League group game against Poland.

Matt Doherty has retained his place in the Republic of Ireland squad for the friendly visit of neighbours Northern Ireland at the Aviva Stadium in Dublin on Thursday, as well as a vital Nations League clash away in Denmark on Monday.

Back-to-back friendly matches with Argentina is what awaits Raul Jimenez and his Mexico teammates during this international break, with both matches taking place in the South American country. The first is on Friday at Estadio Mario Alberto Kempes, in Cordoba, before a game at Estadio Malvinas Argentinas, Mendoza, next Tuesday.

Romain Saiss continues his run in the Moroccan squad, which stretches back to November 2016, with the midfielder being call up for a 2019 Africa Cup of Nations qualification match against Cameroon in Casablanca on Friday night, as well as a friendly clash with Tunisia on Tuesday.

Representing Portugal at youth level this week are Diogo Jota, who is with the under-21s in their European Championship play-off semi-final matches against Poland on Friday and next Tuesday, while Ruben Vinagre is with the under-20 side for friendlies against Poland on Thursday and two matches with Slovakia on Friday and Sunday.

Meanwhile, Morgan Gibbs-White has been selected once again for the England under-19 squad as they face three UEFA European U19 Championships qualifiers at the Arslan Zeki Demirci Spor Kompleksi in Turkey. The first match is against Moldova on Wednesday, before games against Iceland on Sunday and Turkey next Tuesday.

Wolves International’s fixtures

Wednesday 14th November
ENG U19 vs MDA U19 - 12pm

Thursday 15th November
CRO vs ESP - 7.45pm
BEL vs ISL - 7.45pm
IRE vs NIR - 7.45pm
POR U20 vs POL U20 - 5pm

Friday 16th November
POL U21 vs POR U21 - 5pm
MAR vs CMR - 7pm
ARG vs MEX - 12am
SVK U20 vs POR U20

Saturday 17th November
ISL U19 vs ENG U19 - 12pm
ITA vs POR - 8.45pm

Sunday 18th November
SUI vs BEL - 7.45pm
ESP vs BIH - 8.45pm
POR U20 vs SVK U20

Monday 19th November
DEN vs IRE - 8.45pm

Tuesday 20th November
TUR U19 vs ENG U19 - 3pm
POR U21 vs POL U21 - 5pm
TUN vs MAR - 5pm
POR vs POL - 7.45pm
ARG vs MEX - 12am

posted on 14/11/18

nuts
The problem with possession stats, as shown in this article, is that most people do not understand how possession stats are calculated

They are actually calculated by dividing the total passes made by a team by the total amount of passes made in the match

So possession stats actually do relate to passing rather than ball retention
...............
that was always my assumption, and i suspect most peoples - so what is your point ?

posted on 14/11/18

do you think we're all thick ?
that we think its how long a player holds on to the ball ?

posted on 14/11/18

arrogant count

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