comment by Cheesynacho (U1254)
posted 3 hours, 40 minutes ago
My stat is a beasty bastarrd
3 THREE 1st half goals in the last 14 FOURTEEN matches (2 of them in the 47th minute)
Show me worse
..
----------------------------------------------------------------------
So you’re now picking the first 45 mins of games to suit your agenda?
Wow. Absolutely amazing.
Leicester fans - you’re a credit to your club
comment by The Artist formerly known as Black Starr (U12353)
posted 6 hours, 9 minutes ago
comment by Merseysidefox (U4842)
posted 3 hours, 57 minutes ago
I knew you’d bring your facts out BS.
Please ask any fan who’s been watching us for the last year as to whether they thing we’ve been creating genuine clear cut chances for Vardy or any other striker.
I certainly haven’t seen them, unless my eyes have deceived me at most games and I’ve happened to look away as they happened!
----------------------------------------------------------------------
Yeah that’s rightLet’s dispense with the cold hard facts as presented in black and white and instead rely on our impartial and totally unbiased fan base to tell us what their eyes are really seeing
Brilliant Mersey - you’ve absolutely out done yourself.
I’ll dig out more stats covering more games - not sure why I’m bothering because youe eyes are probably more reliable than anything out there....
----------------------------------------------------------------------
Honestly BS, I don’t know how to deal with this. Don’t just mock me and my views. Until the last 2-3 games, ask any other fan on this forum as to whether they think we were creating lots of good chances in a game?
Stats can be misleading, I know because it’s my job. Id be interested in other views as to whether they beleive Vardy has had a good supply line or whether we should just accept your cold hard facts and that Vardy has nothing to moan about, is actually getting some great service and should shut up or leave.
comment by Merseysidefox (U4842)
posted 39 minutes ago
comment by The Artist formerly known as Black Starr (U12353)
posted 6 hours, 9 minutes ago
comment by Merseysidefox (U4842)
posted 3 hours, 57 minutes ago
I knew you’d bring your facts out BS.
Please ask any fan who’s been watching us for the last year as to whether they thing we’ve been creating genuine clear cut chances for Vardy or any other striker.
I certainly haven’t seen them, unless my eyes have deceived me at most games and I’ve happened to look away as they happened!
----------------------------------------------------------------------
Yeah that’s rightLet’s dispense with the cold hard facts as presented in black and white and instead rely on our impartial and totally unbiased fan base to tell us what their eyes are really seeing
Brilliant Mersey - you’ve absolutely out done yourself.
I’ll dig out more stats covering more games - not sure why I’m bothering because youe eyes are probably more reliable than anything out there....
----------------------------------------------------------------------
Honestly BS, I don’t know how to deal with this. Don’t just mock me and my views. Until the last 2-3 games, ask any other fan on this forum as to whether they think we were creating lots of good chances in a game?
Stats can be misleading, I know because it’s my job. Id be interested in other views as to whether they beleive Vardy has had a good supply line or whether we should just accept your cold hard facts and that Vardy has nothing to moan about, is actually getting some great service and should shut up or leave.
----------------------------------------------------------------------
I'm sure there are elements of truth on both sides here. However of course there are lies, damned lies and statistics!
Certainly the football I've seen over the past year has generally been dire; ponderous build up with few worthwhile chances being created at all, let alone for Vardy.
I expect the possession stats are much 'improved' under Claude?
If you want to look at stats alone, what were they for the Newport match? Probably showed we should have slaughtered them? But not telling the real story that Claude decided not to have Vardy on the bench so we didn't have a sensible substitute when we needed one?
I’m mocking you Mersey because it’s impossible to reason with you. Impossible. Even Nev will at times consider the other side of the argument. Nothing I show you - factually, is even considered. It’s honestly like talking to a kid with their fingers in their ears.
You’ve been proven factually to be wrong by saying we don’t create chances for our strikers. We do. You’ve tried to say - oh well that’s only recently. Let me pull a couple of older stats for you below. Cheesey has tried to move the goal posts by only analysing 45 mins of games to back up his arguement. You’re relying on your eyes. Nuneaton is quoting damn lies and statistics
Can you not see, objectively how ridiculous it’s sounding? It’s almost desperate
Huddersfield at home (first stat I’ve picked of a match we won)
22nd Sept (against a lower team)
Shots 16
Shots on target 8
Goals scored 3
Similar shots attempted and shots on target as recently - more clinical in terms of chances taken. Vardy (who gets no service apparently) on the scoresheet
Vs Newcastle away (lost 2-1)
Shots 24!!!
Shots on target 8
No difference to recent games. Bossed it, created clear cut chances - didn’t take them.
Because I can at least contemplate the other side of the argument - I’ll admit that at times, against West Ham at home for example which was dire, we haven’t created enough. But to say we don’t create chances for any striker we play is factually incorrect. But you won’t have it.
Vardy couldn’t have scored 20 goals last season if the team creates no chances for him. Everyone acts as if he fashioned all those chances himself - one of the differences is, he has better creativity (Mahrez) in behind him than he does this season
I saw a star last week that shows we have one of the poorest conversion rates in the league. That we take more long shots than almost any team, with Ndidi, Gray and Maddison being most wasteful.
It's OK having 20 shots a game, but if most of them are hopeful punts from outside the box, that isn't a clear cut chance.
What is our Expected Goals per game looking like? I don't have those stats to hand. That will give the best indication of the quality of chances we are creating.
comment by The Artist formerly known as Black Starr (U12353)
posted 8 hours, 13 minutes ago
comment by Cheesynacho (U1254)
posted 3 hours, 40 minutes ago
My stat is a beasty bastarrd
3 THREE 1st half goals in the last 14 FOURTEEN matches (2 of them in the 47th minute)
Show me worse
..
----------------------------------------------------------------------
So you’re now picking the first 45 mins of games to suit your agenda?
Wow. Absolutely amazing.
Leicester fans - you’re a credit to your club
----------------------------------------------------------------------
You have to admit, that's pretty crappy though yeah?
comment by The Artist formerly known as Black Starr (U12353)
posted 2 hours, 34 minutes ago
I’m mocking you Mersey because it’s impossible to reason with you. Impossible. Even Nev will at times consider the other side of the argument. Nothing I show you - factually, is even considered. It’s honestly like talking to a kid with their fingers in their ears.
You’ve been proven factually to be wrong by saying we don’t create chances for our strikers. We do. You’ve tried to say - oh well that’s only recently. Let me pull a couple of older stats for you below. Cheesey has tried to move the goal posts by only analysing 45 mins of games to back up his arguement. You’re relying on your eyes. Nuneaton is quoting damn lies and statistics
Can you not see, objectively how ridiculous it’s sounding? It’s almost desperate
Huddersfield at home (first stat I’ve picked of a match we won)
22nd Sept (against a lower team)
Shots 16
Shots on target 8
Goals scored 3
Similar shots attempted and shots on target as recently - more clinical in terms of chances taken. Vardy (who gets no service apparently) on the scoresheet
Vs Newcastle away (lost 2-1)
Shots 24!!!
Shots on target 8
No difference to recent games. Bossed it, created clear cut chances - didn’t take them.
Because I can at least contemplate the other side of the argument - I’ll admit that at times, against West Ham at home for example which was dire, we haven’t created enough. But to say we don’t create chances for any striker we play is factually incorrect. But you won’t have it.
----------------------------------------------------------------------
You mistake me not being able to see the other view, with totally disagreeing with it. Two different things.
I can see your argument. Remember I have good eyes.
To be clear BS - you ask me how I can’t see how we’ve been creating loads of chances and just missing them.
I’m asking you how you can’t see that (until the last 3 games) we haven’t been creating genuine goalscoring chances.
Not sure we’re going to align on this one. I’ve clearly been watching different games to you. Maybe I actually am really confused and support Huddersfield or maybe you have been watching Man City and got confused by the light blue kit.
BS - Those stats are missing the point. There’s a big difference between creating a clear goal scoring opportunity, such as a free, balanced shot inside the penalty area, a free header or putting someone through on goal, and seeing Wilfred Ndidi taking a potshot from the edge of the box.
Things have been improving lately as Mersey says, and we need to see more of that, but that hasn’t been the case in the first half of the season. Admittedly I’ve barely been to any away matches, but at home we haven’t been creating the kind of chances where I’d expect us to score, and neither have we been creating those chances for our best finisher.
Plus, it seems that Puel would agree. He said after the Spurs match that we’re now creating the chances he wants to see and that he now wants his young players to be more clinical. Which is essentially an admittance that we haven’t been creating good chances until recently.
Its an interesting discussion here as there are differing opinions about our cutting edge, creativity, conversion rate etc. And while I agree that in some occasions stats do not give a true insight into what is going on, maybe some of the following can help ( stick with me as this may go on a bit).......
So lets look at Jamie Vardy as he is where the crux of the opposing views are focused on. Are we as a club generating the chances for him. Well so far this Premier League season he has had 45 shots, of these 25 have been on target and he has scored 8 goals. So over 50% of his shots have been on target and a third of those have been converted. As a comparison ( Richarlison at Everton as they are close to us in the PL and a player that seems to be "under-performing" this season) he has had 55 shots with 21 on target and has scored 10 goals. So JV has less shots, but more on target yet Richarlison converts a higher percentage of his attempts.
But hang on I hear you cry..... Everton will have lots more shots than we will so that stat has no ground at all. Well as a club they have had 6 more shots than we have this season so far, so I am trying to pick like for like to compare. BUT we have had 13 more shots on target, so you could say that our players know where the target is yet Everton have scored 5 more than we have, so is down to the individuals not being clinical in front of goal?
Just to muddy the waters even more, we often discuss on here the "fast counter attack" that suits us a team but seems to sit uncomfortably with CP. Well no other team in the PL has scored more counter attack goals this season than us, so does this play into the hands of the Anti CP supporters that he is missing a trick and not playing to our known strengths, but is in fact trying to put a square peg in a round hole?
Then we can also look at CP trying to bring in his passing game, so far this season we have made just over 11,000 passes and sit 11th in the PL based on this stat. But compare this with the "fast paced counter attack" of 2015 and 2016, in both seasons we were in the bottom 4 based on passes, and this seasons total is just under the end of season total in 2015 already. So there is a definite change in emphasis, is it right for us? Are we just having growing pains with this new system? That's where some of us sit on opposing sides of the fence.
But, I can hear you all shouting at your screens, "WE ALWAYS PASS IT FECKING BACKWARDS"..... well we have made the same amount of backward passes this season as we have made long balls (just over 1600). As for through balls, we have made the 4th highest in the PL this season, so does this show that our passing game is working? Is it evenly split to take into account the limitations of the players? We seem to be creating chances as a team, so is it down to the quality of the players the chances fall to? We do seem to bemoan the quality of our wide players, full backs etc for creativity etc, but again when looking into it only 2 other clubs have made more crosses into the penalty box than we have this season. So again this seems to say that we are "creating" chances/pressure etc.
I will finish with the lecture now as my head is hurting, I must admit some of the above stats have surprised me.
It has led me to think we need more quality up front to utilise the chances, will this system suit JV? Of course it wont..... so is this the beginning of the end?
Right I am off for a lie down while I have 5 minutes of my lunch break left!!!!!
UTF
comment by The_Dungeon_Master (U4830)
posted 1 hour, 23 minutes ago
BS - Those stats are missing the point. There’s a big difference between creating a clear goal scoring opportunity, such as a free, balanced shot inside the penalty area, a free header or putting someone through on goal, and seeing Wilfred Ndidi taking a potshot from the edge of the box
----------------------------------------------------------------------
I get that - which is why the next and probably most important stat is the expected goals one. That tells you the difference between N’didi having a speculative shot on target outside the box and a clear cut chance created which is expected to be taken.
Our expected goals stat against Spurs was 3.1. We scored 1 due to poor finishing. When you look back through the stats, the expected goals ratio has been consistently good. So when Mersey makes a sweeping statement like ‘we don’t create chances for any striker we play under Puel’ he’s wrong isn’t he?
comment by Merseysidefox (U4842)
posted 2 hours, 22 minutes ago
To be clear BS - you ask me how I can’t see how we’ve been creating loads of chances and just missing them.
I’m asking you how you can’t see that (until the last 3 games) we haven’t been creating genuine goalscoring chances.
Not sure we’re going to align on this one. I’ve clearly been watching different games to you. Maybe I actually am really confused and support Huddersfield or maybe you have been watching Man City and got confused by the light blue kit.
----------------------------------------------------------------------
You don’t think we created goalscoring opportunities against Wolves? That wasn’t in our last 3 matches. You don’t think we created goalscoring opportunities when we beat Huddersfield 3-1?
I agree that there have been certain games earlier in the season where we haven’t done that. I can acknowledge that because I can see the other side of the argument. What I won’t accept is the sweeping statement you came out with which is utter rubbish
Fantastic post Appleton! Proof that us fans aren’t always the best judge of what’s going on.
I think the truth is somewhere in the middle of the extremes. There have been some games (last season) and this season too where the football has been a dull affair and the chances few and far between. The first half against West Ham was horrendous.
What’s happened is that every other match is viewed through those tinted glasses - we even start to remember things differently. Now it’s ‘we don’t create any chances for Vardy or any striker we play’ or ‘we may as well not play with a striker at all’
Even the massive strides taken in the last month are greeted with ‘yeah ok we have improved slightly’ At the end of the day - some people are unwilling to listen to other side of the argument. That’s what frustrates me
No, he’s not necssarily wrong - and for a few reasons. Firstly that the good chances we have created aren’t for the strikers; actually Maddison’s missed quite a few from my recollection. Hence Puel’s statement. Second, because we’re going behind so often, we’re ending up more attacking than our opponents. (Just psychology.) a combination of these things is that we’re creating a lot of low-quality chances, which raises the xG stat a little each time.
Dunge is quite right, Maddison has missed more than his fair share this season. But do we excuse that as its first season at a new club and playing at a level that he hasn't played at before?
Also just to add to the debate, JV has so far missed 13 "big chances" this season which is more than the last 2 seasons added together. Yet has has a higher "shots on target" percentage than in each of the last 3 seasons.
Is there a reasonable explanation for this?
UTF
So I think we’re all agreed. The stats prove we haven’t been making any good chances until recently.
Glad we cleared that up.
comment by The_Dungeon_Master (U4830)
posted 4 hours, 28 minutes ago
No, he’s not necssarily wrong - and for a few reasons. Firstly that the good chances we have created aren’t for the strikers; actually Maddison’s missed quite a few from my recollection. Hence Puel’s statement. Second, because we’re going behind so often, we’re ending up more attacking than our opponents. (Just psychology.) a combination of these things is that we’re creating a lot of low-quality chances, which raises the xG stat a little each time.
----------------------------------------------------------------------
How did Vardy score 20 goals last season if Puels teams don’t create chances for strikers? That’s what Mersey has said.
Also how do you account for the fact that as Appleton rightly states - Vardy has missed more big chances this season than he has done for the previous 2 seasons combined. I thought that we aren’t creating chances for Vardy?
Do you see where Merseyside arguments, based on recollections, aren’t stacking up with statistical evidence?
Also - creating low quality chances does nothing to increase the XG stat. The XG stat is a way of attributing a value to the quality of chances created. If you are creating low quality chances than you will have a low XG return. What you’re saying doesn’t make any sense I’m afraid
comment by Merseysidefox (U4842)
posted 15 minutes ago
So I think we’re all agreed. The stats prove we haven’t been making any good chances until recently.
Glad we cleared that up.
----------------------------------------------------------------------
No they don’t.
Come on BS. Use your eyes!
We all know that Vardy literally took every single chance that came his way last season. A feat he should be applauded for, not criticised.
comment by Merseysidefox (U4842)
posted 6 minutes ago
Come on BS. Use your eyes!
We all know that Vardy literally took every single chance that came his way last season. A feat he should be applauded for, not criticised.
----------------------------------------------------------------------
But that doesn’t make any sense because we create no chances for Vardy or any other strikers apparently. Therefore Vardys 20 goals came from him setting up his own chances from the halfway line and with no involvement from anyone else - because no one else creates anything for him. Now that is an impressive feat
If you're creating a lot of low quality chances, they're still worth something. A lot of low quality chances ends up being about equivalent in xG as a few high quality chances, i.e. 24 x 0.1 = 6 x 0.4.
If your stats are suggesting we are creating enough high quality chances for Vardy this season, I'd like to see them. If by high quality chances, they mean the one he scored from against Spurs, then that is a high quality chance. If they mean the one against Man Utd the other week, coming to him quickly, bobbling and on his left foot that he hit pretty tamely at de Gea, that is not what I'd describe as a high quality chance.
Despite any fallings out that may have happened, Mahrez set Vardy up for a ton of goals last season - great delivery, well finished. I'm with Mersey in that I haven't seen anything like that same quality or indeed invention this year until very recently.
‘If you're creating a lot of low quality chances, they're still worth something. A lot of low quality chances ends up being about equivalent in xG as a few high quality chances, i.e. 24 x 0.1 = 6 x 0.4.’
That’s not exactly how the XG stat is designed to work Dunge. It’s not cumulative in terms of low quality chances. I.e 20 low quality chances don’t equal the same XG as 5 high quality chances. That would defeat the purpose of what the stat is trying to show.
If you create 10 low quality chances your XG stat will be absolute rubbish. It certainly won’t equal 1. None of the chances created could have led to a goal. If you create 2 chances in the entire game, but they are one on one chances - then your XG will be 2 for example.
‘If your stats are suggesting we are creating enough high quality chances for Vardy this season, I’d like to see them’
I didn’t say that. I merely refuted the incorrect statement made by Mersey when he said strikers don’t get chances in Puels system. It’s incorrect.
The Mahrez example you have given shows you that the system isn’t the problem in any case - it’s two fold in my opinion, 1- the quality of players in the system - 2 - poor finishing from a mixture of younger developing players (Gray, Barnes, Maddison) and Vardy not being as clinical this season with chances created for him. This has been highlighted by Appleton’s stats.
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Time to go now!
Page 3 of 5
posted on 13/2/19
comment by Cheesynacho (U1254)
posted 3 hours, 40 minutes ago
My stat is a beasty bastarrd
3 THREE 1st half goals in the last 14 FOURTEEN matches (2 of them in the 47th minute)
Show me worse
..
----------------------------------------------------------------------
So you’re now picking the first 45 mins of games to suit your agenda?
Wow. Absolutely amazing.
Leicester fans - you’re a credit to your club
posted on 13/2/19
comment by The Artist formerly known as Black Starr (U12353)
posted 6 hours, 9 minutes ago
comment by Merseysidefox (U4842)
posted 3 hours, 57 minutes ago
I knew you’d bring your facts out BS.
Please ask any fan who’s been watching us for the last year as to whether they thing we’ve been creating genuine clear cut chances for Vardy or any other striker.
I certainly haven’t seen them, unless my eyes have deceived me at most games and I’ve happened to look away as they happened!
----------------------------------------------------------------------
Yeah that’s rightLet’s dispense with the cold hard facts as presented in black and white and instead rely on our impartial and totally unbiased fan base to tell us what their eyes are really seeing
Brilliant Mersey - you’ve absolutely out done yourself.
I’ll dig out more stats covering more games - not sure why I’m bothering because youe eyes are probably more reliable than anything out there....
----------------------------------------------------------------------
Honestly BS, I don’t know how to deal with this. Don’t just mock me and my views. Until the last 2-3 games, ask any other fan on this forum as to whether they think we were creating lots of good chances in a game?
Stats can be misleading, I know because it’s my job. Id be interested in other views as to whether they beleive Vardy has had a good supply line or whether we should just accept your cold hard facts and that Vardy has nothing to moan about, is actually getting some great service and should shut up or leave.
posted on 13/2/19
comment by Merseysidefox (U4842)
posted 39 minutes ago
comment by The Artist formerly known as Black Starr (U12353)
posted 6 hours, 9 minutes ago
comment by Merseysidefox (U4842)
posted 3 hours, 57 minutes ago
I knew you’d bring your facts out BS.
Please ask any fan who’s been watching us for the last year as to whether they thing we’ve been creating genuine clear cut chances for Vardy or any other striker.
I certainly haven’t seen them, unless my eyes have deceived me at most games and I’ve happened to look away as they happened!
----------------------------------------------------------------------
Yeah that’s rightLet’s dispense with the cold hard facts as presented in black and white and instead rely on our impartial and totally unbiased fan base to tell us what their eyes are really seeing
Brilliant Mersey - you’ve absolutely out done yourself.
I’ll dig out more stats covering more games - not sure why I’m bothering because youe eyes are probably more reliable than anything out there....
----------------------------------------------------------------------
Honestly BS, I don’t know how to deal with this. Don’t just mock me and my views. Until the last 2-3 games, ask any other fan on this forum as to whether they think we were creating lots of good chances in a game?
Stats can be misleading, I know because it’s my job. Id be interested in other views as to whether they beleive Vardy has had a good supply line or whether we should just accept your cold hard facts and that Vardy has nothing to moan about, is actually getting some great service and should shut up or leave.
----------------------------------------------------------------------
I'm sure there are elements of truth on both sides here. However of course there are lies, damned lies and statistics!
Certainly the football I've seen over the past year has generally been dire; ponderous build up with few worthwhile chances being created at all, let alone for Vardy.
I expect the possession stats are much 'improved' under Claude?
If you want to look at stats alone, what were they for the Newport match? Probably showed we should have slaughtered them? But not telling the real story that Claude decided not to have Vardy on the bench so we didn't have a sensible substitute when we needed one?
posted on 13/2/19
I’m mocking you Mersey because it’s impossible to reason with you. Impossible. Even Nev will at times consider the other side of the argument. Nothing I show you - factually, is even considered. It’s honestly like talking to a kid with their fingers in their ears.
You’ve been proven factually to be wrong by saying we don’t create chances for our strikers. We do. You’ve tried to say - oh well that’s only recently. Let me pull a couple of older stats for you below. Cheesey has tried to move the goal posts by only analysing 45 mins of games to back up his arguement. You’re relying on your eyes. Nuneaton is quoting damn lies and statistics
Can you not see, objectively how ridiculous it’s sounding? It’s almost desperate
Huddersfield at home (first stat I’ve picked of a match we won)
22nd Sept (against a lower team)
Shots 16
Shots on target 8
Goals scored 3
Similar shots attempted and shots on target as recently - more clinical in terms of chances taken. Vardy (who gets no service apparently) on the scoresheet
Vs Newcastle away (lost 2-1)
Shots 24!!!
Shots on target 8
No difference to recent games. Bossed it, created clear cut chances - didn’t take them.
Because I can at least contemplate the other side of the argument - I’ll admit that at times, against West Ham at home for example which was dire, we haven’t created enough. But to say we don’t create chances for any striker we play is factually incorrect. But you won’t have it.
posted on 13/2/19
Vardy couldn’t have scored 20 goals last season if the team creates no chances for him. Everyone acts as if he fashioned all those chances himself - one of the differences is, he has better creativity (Mahrez) in behind him than he does this season
posted on 13/2/19
I saw a star last week that shows we have one of the poorest conversion rates in the league. That we take more long shots than almost any team, with Ndidi, Gray and Maddison being most wasteful.
It's OK having 20 shots a game, but if most of them are hopeful punts from outside the box, that isn't a clear cut chance.
What is our Expected Goals per game looking like? I don't have those stats to hand. That will give the best indication of the quality of chances we are creating.
posted on 13/2/19
comment by The Artist formerly known as Black Starr (U12353)
posted 8 hours, 13 minutes ago
comment by Cheesynacho (U1254)
posted 3 hours, 40 minutes ago
My stat is a beasty bastarrd
3 THREE 1st half goals in the last 14 FOURTEEN matches (2 of them in the 47th minute)
Show me worse
..
----------------------------------------------------------------------
So you’re now picking the first 45 mins of games to suit your agenda?
Wow. Absolutely amazing.
Leicester fans - you’re a credit to your club
----------------------------------------------------------------------
You have to admit, that's pretty crappy though yeah?
posted on 13/2/19
comment by The Artist formerly known as Black Starr (U12353)
posted 2 hours, 34 minutes ago
I’m mocking you Mersey because it’s impossible to reason with you. Impossible. Even Nev will at times consider the other side of the argument. Nothing I show you - factually, is even considered. It’s honestly like talking to a kid with their fingers in their ears.
You’ve been proven factually to be wrong by saying we don’t create chances for our strikers. We do. You’ve tried to say - oh well that’s only recently. Let me pull a couple of older stats for you below. Cheesey has tried to move the goal posts by only analysing 45 mins of games to back up his arguement. You’re relying on your eyes. Nuneaton is quoting damn lies and statistics
Can you not see, objectively how ridiculous it’s sounding? It’s almost desperate
Huddersfield at home (first stat I’ve picked of a match we won)
22nd Sept (against a lower team)
Shots 16
Shots on target 8
Goals scored 3
Similar shots attempted and shots on target as recently - more clinical in terms of chances taken. Vardy (who gets no service apparently) on the scoresheet
Vs Newcastle away (lost 2-1)
Shots 24!!!
Shots on target 8
No difference to recent games. Bossed it, created clear cut chances - didn’t take them.
Because I can at least contemplate the other side of the argument - I’ll admit that at times, against West Ham at home for example which was dire, we haven’t created enough. But to say we don’t create chances for any striker we play is factually incorrect. But you won’t have it.
----------------------------------------------------------------------
You mistake me not being able to see the other view, with totally disagreeing with it. Two different things.
I can see your argument. Remember I have good eyes.
posted on 13/2/19
To be clear BS - you ask me how I can’t see how we’ve been creating loads of chances and just missing them.
I’m asking you how you can’t see that (until the last 3 games) we haven’t been creating genuine goalscoring chances.
Not sure we’re going to align on this one. I’ve clearly been watching different games to you. Maybe I actually am really confused and support Huddersfield or maybe you have been watching Man City and got confused by the light blue kit.
posted on 13/2/19
BS - Those stats are missing the point. There’s a big difference between creating a clear goal scoring opportunity, such as a free, balanced shot inside the penalty area, a free header or putting someone through on goal, and seeing Wilfred Ndidi taking a potshot from the edge of the box.
Things have been improving lately as Mersey says, and we need to see more of that, but that hasn’t been the case in the first half of the season. Admittedly I’ve barely been to any away matches, but at home we haven’t been creating the kind of chances where I’d expect us to score, and neither have we been creating those chances for our best finisher.
Plus, it seems that Puel would agree. He said after the Spurs match that we’re now creating the chances he wants to see and that he now wants his young players to be more clinical. Which is essentially an admittance that we haven’t been creating good chances until recently.
posted on 13/2/19
Its an interesting discussion here as there are differing opinions about our cutting edge, creativity, conversion rate etc. And while I agree that in some occasions stats do not give a true insight into what is going on, maybe some of the following can help ( stick with me as this may go on a bit).......
So lets look at Jamie Vardy as he is where the crux of the opposing views are focused on. Are we as a club generating the chances for him. Well so far this Premier League season he has had 45 shots, of these 25 have been on target and he has scored 8 goals. So over 50% of his shots have been on target and a third of those have been converted. As a comparison ( Richarlison at Everton as they are close to us in the PL and a player that seems to be "under-performing" this season) he has had 55 shots with 21 on target and has scored 10 goals. So JV has less shots, but more on target yet Richarlison converts a higher percentage of his attempts.
But hang on I hear you cry..... Everton will have lots more shots than we will so that stat has no ground at all. Well as a club they have had 6 more shots than we have this season so far, so I am trying to pick like for like to compare. BUT we have had 13 more shots on target, so you could say that our players know where the target is yet Everton have scored 5 more than we have, so is down to the individuals not being clinical in front of goal?
Just to muddy the waters even more, we often discuss on here the "fast counter attack" that suits us a team but seems to sit uncomfortably with CP. Well no other team in the PL has scored more counter attack goals this season than us, so does this play into the hands of the Anti CP supporters that he is missing a trick and not playing to our known strengths, but is in fact trying to put a square peg in a round hole?
Then we can also look at CP trying to bring in his passing game, so far this season we have made just over 11,000 passes and sit 11th in the PL based on this stat. But compare this with the "fast paced counter attack" of 2015 and 2016, in both seasons we were in the bottom 4 based on passes, and this seasons total is just under the end of season total in 2015 already. So there is a definite change in emphasis, is it right for us? Are we just having growing pains with this new system? That's where some of us sit on opposing sides of the fence.
But, I can hear you all shouting at your screens, "WE ALWAYS PASS IT FECKING BACKWARDS"..... well we have made the same amount of backward passes this season as we have made long balls (just over 1600). As for through balls, we have made the 4th highest in the PL this season, so does this show that our passing game is working? Is it evenly split to take into account the limitations of the players? We seem to be creating chances as a team, so is it down to the quality of the players the chances fall to? We do seem to bemoan the quality of our wide players, full backs etc for creativity etc, but again when looking into it only 2 other clubs have made more crosses into the penalty box than we have this season. So again this seems to say that we are "creating" chances/pressure etc.
I will finish with the lecture now as my head is hurting, I must admit some of the above stats have surprised me.
It has led me to think we need more quality up front to utilise the chances, will this system suit JV? Of course it wont..... so is this the beginning of the end?
Right I am off for a lie down while I have 5 minutes of my lunch break left!!!!!
UTF
posted on 13/2/19
comment by The_Dungeon_Master (U4830)
posted 1 hour, 23 minutes ago
BS - Those stats are missing the point. There’s a big difference between creating a clear goal scoring opportunity, such as a free, balanced shot inside the penalty area, a free header or putting someone through on goal, and seeing Wilfred Ndidi taking a potshot from the edge of the box
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I get that - which is why the next and probably most important stat is the expected goals one. That tells you the difference between N’didi having a speculative shot on target outside the box and a clear cut chance created which is expected to be taken.
Our expected goals stat against Spurs was 3.1. We scored 1 due to poor finishing. When you look back through the stats, the expected goals ratio has been consistently good. So when Mersey makes a sweeping statement like ‘we don’t create chances for any striker we play under Puel’ he’s wrong isn’t he?
posted on 13/2/19
comment by Merseysidefox (U4842)
posted 2 hours, 22 minutes ago
To be clear BS - you ask me how I can’t see how we’ve been creating loads of chances and just missing them.
I’m asking you how you can’t see that (until the last 3 games) we haven’t been creating genuine goalscoring chances.
Not sure we’re going to align on this one. I’ve clearly been watching different games to you. Maybe I actually am really confused and support Huddersfield or maybe you have been watching Man City and got confused by the light blue kit.
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You don’t think we created goalscoring opportunities against Wolves? That wasn’t in our last 3 matches. You don’t think we created goalscoring opportunities when we beat Huddersfield 3-1?
I agree that there have been certain games earlier in the season where we haven’t done that. I can acknowledge that because I can see the other side of the argument. What I won’t accept is the sweeping statement you came out with which is utter rubbish
posted on 13/2/19
Fantastic post Appleton! Proof that us fans aren’t always the best judge of what’s going on.
I think the truth is somewhere in the middle of the extremes. There have been some games (last season) and this season too where the football has been a dull affair and the chances few and far between. The first half against West Ham was horrendous.
What’s happened is that every other match is viewed through those tinted glasses - we even start to remember things differently. Now it’s ‘we don’t create any chances for Vardy or any striker we play’ or ‘we may as well not play with a striker at all’
Even the massive strides taken in the last month are greeted with ‘yeah ok we have improved slightly’ At the end of the day - some people are unwilling to listen to other side of the argument. That’s what frustrates me
posted on 13/2/19
No, he’s not necssarily wrong - and for a few reasons. Firstly that the good chances we have created aren’t for the strikers; actually Maddison’s missed quite a few from my recollection. Hence Puel’s statement. Second, because we’re going behind so often, we’re ending up more attacking than our opponents. (Just psychology.) a combination of these things is that we’re creating a lot of low-quality chances, which raises the xG stat a little each time.
posted on 13/2/19
Dunge is quite right, Maddison has missed more than his fair share this season. But do we excuse that as its first season at a new club and playing at a level that he hasn't played at before?
Also just to add to the debate, JV has so far missed 13 "big chances" this season which is more than the last 2 seasons added together. Yet has has a higher "shots on target" percentage than in each of the last 3 seasons.
Is there a reasonable explanation for this?
UTF
posted on 13/2/19
So I think we’re all agreed. The stats prove we haven’t been making any good chances until recently.
Glad we cleared that up.
posted on 13/2/19
comment by The_Dungeon_Master (U4830)
posted 4 hours, 28 minutes ago
No, he’s not necssarily wrong - and for a few reasons. Firstly that the good chances we have created aren’t for the strikers; actually Maddison’s missed quite a few from my recollection. Hence Puel’s statement. Second, because we’re going behind so often, we’re ending up more attacking than our opponents. (Just psychology.) a combination of these things is that we’re creating a lot of low-quality chances, which raises the xG stat a little each time.
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How did Vardy score 20 goals last season if Puels teams don’t create chances for strikers? That’s what Mersey has said.
Also how do you account for the fact that as Appleton rightly states - Vardy has missed more big chances this season than he has done for the previous 2 seasons combined. I thought that we aren’t creating chances for Vardy?
Do you see where Merseyside arguments, based on recollections, aren’t stacking up with statistical evidence?
posted on 13/2/19
Also - creating low quality chances does nothing to increase the XG stat. The XG stat is a way of attributing a value to the quality of chances created. If you are creating low quality chances than you will have a low XG return. What you’re saying doesn’t make any sense I’m afraid
posted on 13/2/19
comment by Merseysidefox (U4842)
posted 15 minutes ago
So I think we’re all agreed. The stats prove we haven’t been making any good chances until recently.
Glad we cleared that up.
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No they don’t.
posted on 13/2/19
Come on BS. Use your eyes!
We all know that Vardy literally took every single chance that came his way last season. A feat he should be applauded for, not criticised.
posted on 13/2/19
comment by Merseysidefox (U4842)
posted 6 minutes ago
Come on BS. Use your eyes!
We all know that Vardy literally took every single chance that came his way last season. A feat he should be applauded for, not criticised.
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But that doesn’t make any sense because we create no chances for Vardy or any other strikers apparently. Therefore Vardys 20 goals came from him setting up his own chances from the halfway line and with no involvement from anyone else - because no one else creates anything for him. Now that is an impressive feat
posted on 13/2/19
If you're creating a lot of low quality chances, they're still worth something. A lot of low quality chances ends up being about equivalent in xG as a few high quality chances, i.e. 24 x 0.1 = 6 x 0.4.
If your stats are suggesting we are creating enough high quality chances for Vardy this season, I'd like to see them. If by high quality chances, they mean the one he scored from against Spurs, then that is a high quality chance. If they mean the one against Man Utd the other week, coming to him quickly, bobbling and on his left foot that he hit pretty tamely at de Gea, that is not what I'd describe as a high quality chance.
Despite any fallings out that may have happened, Mahrez set Vardy up for a ton of goals last season - great delivery, well finished. I'm with Mersey in that I haven't seen anything like that same quality or indeed invention this year until very recently.
posted on 13/2/19
‘If you're creating a lot of low quality chances, they're still worth something. A lot of low quality chances ends up being about equivalent in xG as a few high quality chances, i.e. 24 x 0.1 = 6 x 0.4.’
That’s not exactly how the XG stat is designed to work Dunge. It’s not cumulative in terms of low quality chances. I.e 20 low quality chances don’t equal the same XG as 5 high quality chances. That would defeat the purpose of what the stat is trying to show.
If you create 10 low quality chances your XG stat will be absolute rubbish. It certainly won’t equal 1. None of the chances created could have led to a goal. If you create 2 chances in the entire game, but they are one on one chances - then your XG will be 2 for example.
posted on 13/2/19
‘If your stats are suggesting we are creating enough high quality chances for Vardy this season, I’d like to see them’
I didn’t say that. I merely refuted the incorrect statement made by Mersey when he said strikers don’t get chances in Puels system. It’s incorrect.
The Mahrez example you have given shows you that the system isn’t the problem in any case - it’s two fold in my opinion, 1- the quality of players in the system - 2 - poor finishing from a mixture of younger developing players (Gray, Barnes, Maddison) and Vardy not being as clinical this season with chances created for him. This has been highlighted by Appleton’s stats.
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