comment by Michael Edwards FC {Proud owner of the 5 000 000th comment} (U2720)
posted 35 minutes ago
comment by Finlay Robertson (U1734)
posted 1 hour, 24 minutes ago
comment by Posh Mufc Great Hafi Not Arrogant Just Better (U6578)
posted 13 seconds ago
Why are we likely to lose against a side that rarely beats us or barely scores at OT and lets not forget Man Utd have the best defence on expected goals against.

Lets not forget Klopp title chasing side last season he blamed Man Utd injuries as a result for them not creating a chance in the whole game lol.
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Barry is a genius
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comment by Robb : Time for a change (U21234)
posted 3 hours, 31 minutes ago
Hafmeister, are in in title winning form?

comment by Robb : Time for a change (U21234)
posted 3 hours, 30 minutes ago
*are we
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Hafi certainly is.

I honestly think no one watches Man Utd games. Pundits trolling Solskjaer side when in reality is Solskjaer is doing a Guardiola level job. Just his players are extremely inefficient.

Pogba and De Gea ruled out of Sunday's game already.

I guess we'll see very little creativity in that case then. I almost wish Fellaini was still with us so we could bypass their press and get up the pitch quickly!

Pogba bottling it

https://www.skysports.com/football/news/11667/11837178/ole-gunnar-solskjaer-meets-gary-neville-manchester-united-boss-on-his-future-and-transfer-plans
Shame we never got a striker to replace Lukaku. If Martial hadn’t got injured and Rashford hadn’t been so poor this season then maybe we would be bear the top.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/football/50045419
Its better to be lucky than good.

From the article hafster:

"Man Utd are struggling to create good chances.
Based on the quality of their shots, an average side would be expected to score just 7.6% of them (excluding penalties)"

Does this not show that our expected goals is very low? The 7.6% refers to an average side as well and we are below average. So are we higher in the table than our performances deserve?

Answer in mainly numbers please.

Still 5th highest expected goals.

Hafi, can you please have the decency to explain who is doing the expecting?

Looking a bit of a weasel by dodging it all the time.

If the ball is squared to someone with an open goal and all they have to do is side foot the ball in but they scuff it and no shot is taken then that doesn’t count as an expected goal

And that’s why the stat is flawed

Harsh on Lingard there...he's still developing.

I just wanna know who does the expecting and why this person gets to decide. I'd quite like the job actually.

I think that’s the thing with expected goals as it’s still subjective. Though I’m sure I read a while back that the people that came up with the concept (originated in Germany I think) did a lot of analysis to come up with their scoring system.

Hafi is mental, but there’s some value in xg.

I read that there are actually dozens of ways to work out expected goals and people argue over which way is best

But when you see that it doesn’t take into account if it’s Ruud Van Nistlerooy or Darren Bent taking the ‘expected goal’ shot its flawed

Yeah that’s why I’ve never taking great stock in it. But it can give an indication of how many chances you are creating. And despite the stuff Hafi throws out it actually shows something we already know, that we don’t create enough chances.

So explain since March Man Utd have been on average creating twice as many chances as the opposition but struggling to win. The opposition have been regularly scoring from every 5 shots when we are away and we have been scoring like every 30 shots. Is our strikers and players that bad? Let’s not forget we are near averaging the lowest since March after PSG game on expected goals against yet been concede a goal nearly every 5 shots away and scoring a goal near every 30 shots away. Nearly every team have gone away to southampton and had significantly worse stats shots against and for and comfortably have beaten them but we completely mullered them and drew. Same for rochdale there next game they concede nearly every shot while we scored 1 goal from 31 shots and tons of big chances. Also peterborough scores 6 against them with less than half as many shots as we managed to get 1 goal. A team scored 3 goals from 6 shots after our game against them. So what is the manager supposed to do other than play himself?

Sigh.

Hafi you seem to think a chance is a chance and that's it. It's not. But yes youre strikers are not great (well just young really).

Ultimately though expected goals is utter bollox.

It’s not utter ballacks. If you actually look at xg without the prism of Hafi it often correlates with what you’re seeing on the pitch on a pretty basic level.

There’s a middle ground between Hafi and utter ballacks. I’m pretty sure Liverpool have actually been using xg as part of their statistical analysis framework that has made the club so successful recently.

How about if we are 1-0 up but then the opposition have a goal wrongly ruled out which would have made it 1-1, but we end up winning 2-0, does that mean that it doesn’t matter that they had a goal ruled out cos we won by 2 anyway so they would have still lost?

comment by Mason The King Greenwood (U10026)
posted 20 minutes ago
It’s not utter ballacks. If you actually look at xg without the prism of Hafi it often correlates with what you’re seeing on the pitch on a pretty basic level.

There’s a middle ground between Hafi and utter ballacks. I’m pretty sure Liverpool have actually been using xg as part of their statistical analysis framework that has made the club so successful recently.
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Nah fair enough Darren I've made a bit of a sweeping statement there, but it needs various other stats and also watching the game for it to be relevant.

As a stand alone stat it really is utter bollox though.

Yes and no. I think if you’ve got a basic understanding of football and their methodology you can make a few base conclusions from the stats. Note I’m only talking about the xg for and against. Expected points I don’t think have much grounds for consideration as it completely ignores the fundamental point about goals changing games. You can make a conclusion about expected points based on a chance being missed.

*can’t

The best thing Solskjaer has done since has come is we regularly have higher expected goals than the opposition. Its strange we went on a 9 game winning away run and have been conceding extremely few chances every away game since then and generally having a lot higher expected goals than the opposition and not won in 11 away games. We should really have won easily 7 of the last 11 away games.

Honestly its hard to believe we haven’t won away since PSG as we have near Man City stats away from home. Even when we played rubbish against AZ we had like 2 sitters.

Hafmeister, do you realise for over a century, footballers have missed chances and that’s why football is as fun and unpredictable as it is?