Nothing I can see spart ,beware fake news.
Trust in Vidal .

So with flu it’s got an infection rate of 1.4, which means if I have it I’ll infect 1.4 people, and they’ll do the same.
After 10 people have done this, that’s 14 people infected.

Now, assuming you haven’t watched c4 in the last 10 minutes, this bat flu has an infection rate of 3, how many will be inflicted after 10 people have done the same?

*infected.

A lot.

1
3
9
27
81
243
729
2187

etc

About 20,000?

That’s not ten people though, that’s assuming one person infects three, they all infect three new ones each etc and continuing for ten cycles. If ten infect three each then it’s thirty if it stops there.

I give in. What’s the answer? Is it a quarter?

59000 according to the bloke on the telly.
I’d try and verify it but I’ve had 3 glasses of rouge

That takes it to eleven steps. Depends if you start with the individual and then have ten steps, or if he is the first of ten moves.

Don’t shoot the messenger, jeeeeeez.

Also, I think you mis-heard. If one person infects 1.4 others on average then after another ten steps forty people would be infected, not fourteen.

I’m starting to think that maybe maths isn’t your thing.

comment by lastapostleofvidal (U1491)
posted 22 minutes ago
Also, I think you mis-heard. If one person infects 1.4 others on average then after another ten steps forty people would be infected, not fourteen.

I’m starting to think that maybe maths isn’t your thing.


----------------------------------------------------------------------
🤣

comment by lastapostleofvidal (U1491)
posted 21 minutes ago
Also, I think you mis-heard. If one person infects 1.4 others on average then after another ten steps forty people would be infected, not fourteen.

I’m starting to think that maybe maths isn’t your thing.


----------------------------------------------------------------------
1
1.4
1.96
2.74
3.84
5.38
7.53
10.54
14.75
20.66

I think he was rounding up for the Mae Tze lung virus, but down for flu.

Where’d you get 40 from?

I did 2 more multiplications by 1.4. That makes eleven steps not ten, but it seemed unlikely that you would mis-hear twenty for fourteen, so I assumed he had done too many steps as the likeliest probability.

I would have thought that was obvious. What other explanation could there be?

Just watched the +1 and he said an infection rate of 1.3 to 1.4 so there’s the answer. He used the 1.3.

He’s using the lower rate for maximum impact I’m guessing.

Phew! Mystery solved.

There appears to be no press conference today, why not?

Are they arguing over what to do next?

So far there has been a confusing mixed message, certainly as far as the publics response has been.

Is it now time for a Govn't of National Unity, with certainly at press conference someone capable of delivering a clear concise message?

Also there are numerous reports of the FCO fobbing off U.K Nationals trapped abroad by the cancellation of all International Flight's, some of these people are medics.

The only group that the Government seems bothered about are in Peru.

My eldest son is in the cruise business and he is trying to get 30 Uk citizens back from Buenes Aires. BA have refused to take them. They are stuck there for at least another week.

For the second successive day, deaths in Italy have fallen. This is very hopeful. Things are going to get a lot worse in the UK over the next couple of weeks, with larger numbers of dead each day, but if the trend continues in Italy and if we mirror it (2 big ifs I know) then there is light at the end of the tunnel.

Boris is announcing something at 8 30 tonight. Probably lockdown.

They're turning the Excel in London into a ICU, or possibly a post intensive care rehabilitation unit?

'The only way'
2 weeks after the horse has bolted.
Still no restrictions on hoarding or queueing for food.

Been saying all along the government should have taken control of food distribution. It's the weak link if you are trying to self isolate.

Well I will continue to have dozens of interactions each day with colleagues and patients. There isn’t much I can do about that.

comment by lastapostleofvidal (U1491)
posted 5 minutes ago
Well I will continue to have dozens of interactions each day with colleagues and patients. There isn’t much I can do about that.
----------------------------------------------------------------------
Hopefully you got the correct PPE Vidal?

I have an appointment for a formal mask fitting tomorrow. Current advice is only to wear it in Covid patients who are having an “aerosol generating procedure”. I don’t think I do any of those, at least not intentionally. But the Covid positive patients aren’t likely to be the big issue, it’s the staff who will be incubating, no symptoms yet but infectious. I could be one of them.

I understand a mask helps stop an infected wearer spreading the virus, but otherwise is not much use?

I guess it depends what type of mask is being worn?