So bat starts and ends it? How poetic....
Interesting. Fingers crossed!
It makes sense to go back to the source which created the virus.
Comment deleted by Site Moderator
Whilst cancer sticks are bad, mmmkay, can you imagine the head of that company announcing a vaccine -
BAT MAN SAVES THE WORLD!!
As an aside
https://www.mirror.co.uk/news/uk-news/coronavirus-live-updates-uk-lockdown-21757656
They quote the figure 1.7 million already infected. That was bang on the figure I theorised to the wife yesterday.
Comment deleted by Site Moderator
Comment deleted by Site Moderator
Daily Mirror .......!?!?
Get a grip
Comment deleted by Site Moderator
comment by Cal Neva (U11544)
posted 52 seconds ago
comment by IAmMe (U18491)
posted 7 seconds ago
Daily Mirror .......!?!?
Get a grip
----------------------------------------------------------------------
You can't just dismiss it because you don't like The Mirror.
----------------------------------------------------------------------
If you take Germany's early fatality rate of 0.3 percent when they were testing huge swathes of asymptomatic positives, then factor in mean time till death it puts you in that 1.7m ball park. The lockdown a week ago skews thing but it's a far more probable number than the Oxford theoretical epidemiology paper stating half UK pop has been infected.
comment by IAmMe (U18491)
posted 4 minutes ago
Daily Mirror .......!?!?
Get a grip
----------------------------------------------------------------------
It's a news report based on a press release by British American Tobacco. It's in every major media outlet. Scientists are welcoming the announcement and taking it seriously, with sensible caveats about the time it will take to assess efficacy and safety.
Just because the Mirror reported it doesn't mean it should be dismissed. The tabloids do a considerable amount of straight news reporting, and the Mirror is a long way from the worst of the tabloids.
Comment deleted by Site Moderator
comment by Admin1 (U1)
posted 37 minutes ago
comment by Cal Neva (U11544)
posted 52 seconds ago
comment by IAmMe (U18491)
posted 7 seconds ago
Daily Mirror .......!?!?
Get a grip
----------------------------------------------------------------------
You can't just dismiss it because you don't like The Mirror.
----------------------------------------------------------------------
If you take Germany's early fatality rate of 0.3 percent when they were testing huge swathes of asymptomatic positives, then factor in mean time till death it puts you in that 1.7m ball park. The lockdown a week ago skews thing but it's a far more probable number than the Oxford theoretical epidemiology paper stating half UK pop has been infected.
----------------------------------------------------------------------
I think Germany's statistics are probably the best to use considering the high level of testing.
does testing STOP you from getting Corvid 19 ?
comment by Redvalk (U14242)
posted 11 minutes ago
does testing STOP you from getting Corvid 19 ?
----------------------------------------------------------------------
Tempted to say, yea😩
comment by Redvalk (U14242)
posted 2 minutes ago
does testing STOP you from getting Corvid 19 ?
----------------------------------------------------------------------
It can do yes. In Germany they did high numbers of tests and were able to better isolate people due to this. They have reported 78k cases with 931 dead. They are doing over 300k tests per week, meaning they can trace it and isolate it.
The UK have
Here in the UK we haven't been testing and therefore we only know about the serious cases. Considering 2300 people have died, if you estimated using Germany's statistics, that would mean 226k should have contracted the virus and yet our statistics show 30k. This means they had no way of isolating it, only to shut the country down.
It was all about the testing in the beginning, they messed that up and therefore it became about isolating everybody. So yes, testing can stop you getting it, as people are tracked and isolated earlier.
OP
Batman to the rescue, then😇
I found this article really useful in understanding the complexity of modelling coronavirus and the variables that should be taken into account when comparing stats:
https://unherd.com/2020/04/how-likely-are-you-to-die-of-coronavirus/
comment by There'sOnlyOneRed's (U1721)
posted 6 minutes ago
comment by Redvalk (U14242)
posted 2 minutes ago
does testing STOP you from getting Corvid 19 ?
----------------------------------------------------------------------
It can do yes. In Germany they did high numbers of tests and were able to better isolate people due to this. They have reported 78k cases with 931 dead. They are doing over 300k tests per week, meaning they can trace it and isolate it.
The UK have
Here in the UK we haven't been testing and therefore we only know about the serious cases. Considering 2300 people have died, if you estimated using Germany's statistics, that would mean 226k should have contracted the virus and yet our statistics show 30k. This means they had no way of isolating it, only to shut the country down.
It was all about the testing in the beginning, they messed that up and therefore it became about isolating everybody. So yes, testing can stop you getting it, as people are tracked and isolated earlier.
----------------------------------------------------------------------
so if I get the all clear to-day I can't get it tomorrow.
comment by Red Russian (U4715)
posted 9 minutes ago
I found this article really useful in understanding the complexity of modelling coronavirus and the variables that should be taken into account when comparing stats:
https://unherd.com/2020/04/how-likely-are-you-to-die-of-coronavirus/
----------------------------------------------------------------------
That's pretty much as good an article as you can get in terms of calculations. IMO with the exception of adjusting down for the impact of lockdown.
comment by Redvalk (U14242)
posted 1 hour, 14 minutes ago
comment by There'sOnlyOneRed's (U1721)
posted 6 minutes ago
comment by Redvalk (U14242)
posted 2 minutes ago
does testing STOP you from getting Corvid 19 ?
----------------------------------------------------------------------
It can do yes. In Germany they did high numbers of tests and were able to better isolate people due to this. They have reported 78k cases with 931 dead. They are doing over 300k tests per week, meaning they can trace it and isolate it.
The UK have
Here in the UK we haven't been testing and therefore we only know about the serious cases. Considering 2300 people have died, if you estimated using Germany's statistics, that would mean 226k should have contracted the virus and yet our statistics show 30k. This means they had no way of isolating it, only to shut the country down.
It was all about the testing in the beginning, they messed that up and therefore it became about isolating everybody. So yes, testing can stop you getting it, as people are tracked and isolated earlier.
----------------------------------------------------------------------
so if I get the all clear to-day I can't get it tomorrow.
----------------------------------------------------------------------
That's not what I said.
If people were tested and isolated early like in Germany, then less people would have it and you would be less likely to get it.
comment by There'sOnlyOneRed's (U1721)
posted 34 minutes ago
comment by Redvalk (U14242)
posted 1 hour, 14 minutes ago
comment by There'sOnlyOneRed's (U1721)
posted 6 minutes ago
comment by Redvalk (U14242)
posted 2 minutes ago
does testing STOP you from getting Corvid 19 ?
----------------------------------------------------------------------
It can do yes. In Germany they did high numbers of tests and were able to better isolate people due to this. They have reported 78k cases with 931 dead. They are doing over 300k tests per week, meaning they can trace it and isolate it.
The UK have
Here in the UK we haven't been testing and therefore we only know about the serious cases. Considering 2300 people have died, if you estimated using Germany's statistics, that would mean 226k should have contracted the virus and yet our statistics show 30k. This means they had no way of isolating it, only to shut the country down.
It was all about the testing in the beginning, they messed that up and therefore it became about isolating everybody. So yes, testing can stop you getting it, as people are tracked and isolated earlier.
----------------------------------------------------------------------
so if I get the all clear to-day I can't get it tomorrow.
----------------------------------------------------------------------
That's not what I said.
If people were tested and isolated early like in Germany, then less people would have it and you would be less likely to get it.
----------------------------------------------------------------------
sorry you said "it can do yes" according to German media why is Germany now having second thoughts on the way they have been testing.
More testing, more isolating, less chance of catching the virus.
In theory the UK's figures will hopefully decrease in about one week's time. Let's hope so
comment by Admin1 (U1)
posted 4 hours, 38 minutes ago
As an aside
https://www.mirror.co.uk/news/uk-news/coronavirus-live-updates-uk-lockdown-21757656
They quote the figure 1.7 million already infected. That was bang on the figure I theorised to the wife yesterday.
----------------------------------------------------------------------
Whilst i agree the case numbers are far higher i would be very dubious relying on those figures entered by people at home, have seen people all over FB saying things like 'remember that cough i had, i bet that was it' and so on, even my brothers swear they got it on a cruise early but yet nobody seemed to be dying back then.
Sign in if you want to comment
BAT develops potential Covid vaccine
Page 1 of 2
posted on 2/4/20
So bat starts and ends it? How poetic....
posted on 2/4/20
Interesting. Fingers crossed!
posted on 2/4/20
It makes sense to go back to the source which created the virus.
posted on 2/4/20
Comment deleted by Site Moderator
posted on 2/4/20
Whilst cancer sticks are bad, mmmkay, can you imagine the head of that company announcing a vaccine -
BAT MAN SAVES THE WORLD!!
posted on 2/4/20
As an aside
https://www.mirror.co.uk/news/uk-news/coronavirus-live-updates-uk-lockdown-21757656
They quote the figure 1.7 million already infected. That was bang on the figure I theorised to the wife yesterday.
posted on 2/4/20
Comment deleted by Site Moderator
posted on 2/4/20
Comment deleted by Site Moderator
posted on 2/4/20
Daily Mirror .......!?!?
Get a grip
posted on 2/4/20
Comment deleted by Site Moderator
posted on 2/4/20
comment by Cal Neva (U11544)
posted 52 seconds ago
comment by IAmMe (U18491)
posted 7 seconds ago
Daily Mirror .......!?!?
Get a grip
----------------------------------------------------------------------
You can't just dismiss it because you don't like The Mirror.
----------------------------------------------------------------------
If you take Germany's early fatality rate of 0.3 percent when they were testing huge swathes of asymptomatic positives, then factor in mean time till death it puts you in that 1.7m ball park. The lockdown a week ago skews thing but it's a far more probable number than the Oxford theoretical epidemiology paper stating half UK pop has been infected.
posted on 2/4/20
comment by IAmMe (U18491)
posted 4 minutes ago
Daily Mirror .......!?!?
Get a grip
----------------------------------------------------------------------
It's a news report based on a press release by British American Tobacco. It's in every major media outlet. Scientists are welcoming the announcement and taking it seriously, with sensible caveats about the time it will take to assess efficacy and safety.
Just because the Mirror reported it doesn't mean it should be dismissed. The tabloids do a considerable amount of straight news reporting, and the Mirror is a long way from the worst of the tabloids.
posted on 2/4/20
Comment deleted by Site Moderator
posted on 2/4/20
comment by Admin1 (U1)
posted 37 minutes ago
comment by Cal Neva (U11544)
posted 52 seconds ago
comment by IAmMe (U18491)
posted 7 seconds ago
Daily Mirror .......!?!?
Get a grip
----------------------------------------------------------------------
You can't just dismiss it because you don't like The Mirror.
----------------------------------------------------------------------
If you take Germany's early fatality rate of 0.3 percent when they were testing huge swathes of asymptomatic positives, then factor in mean time till death it puts you in that 1.7m ball park. The lockdown a week ago skews thing but it's a far more probable number than the Oxford theoretical epidemiology paper stating half UK pop has been infected.
----------------------------------------------------------------------
I think Germany's statistics are probably the best to use considering the high level of testing.
posted on 2/4/20
does testing STOP you from getting Corvid 19 ?
posted on 2/4/20
comment by Redvalk (U14242)
posted 11 minutes ago
does testing STOP you from getting Corvid 19 ?
----------------------------------------------------------------------
Tempted to say, yea😩
posted on 2/4/20
comment by Redvalk (U14242)
posted 2 minutes ago
does testing STOP you from getting Corvid 19 ?
----------------------------------------------------------------------
It can do yes. In Germany they did high numbers of tests and were able to better isolate people due to this. They have reported 78k cases with 931 dead. They are doing over 300k tests per week, meaning they can trace it and isolate it.
The UK have
Here in the UK we haven't been testing and therefore we only know about the serious cases. Considering 2300 people have died, if you estimated using Germany's statistics, that would mean 226k should have contracted the virus and yet our statistics show 30k. This means they had no way of isolating it, only to shut the country down.
It was all about the testing in the beginning, they messed that up and therefore it became about isolating everybody. So yes, testing can stop you getting it, as people are tracked and isolated earlier.
posted on 2/4/20
OP
Batman to the rescue, then😇
posted on 2/4/20
I found this article really useful in understanding the complexity of modelling coronavirus and the variables that should be taken into account when comparing stats:
https://unherd.com/2020/04/how-likely-are-you-to-die-of-coronavirus/
posted on 2/4/20
comment by There'sOnlyOneRed's (U1721)
posted 6 minutes ago
comment by Redvalk (U14242)
posted 2 minutes ago
does testing STOP you from getting Corvid 19 ?
----------------------------------------------------------------------
It can do yes. In Germany they did high numbers of tests and were able to better isolate people due to this. They have reported 78k cases with 931 dead. They are doing over 300k tests per week, meaning they can trace it and isolate it.
The UK have
Here in the UK we haven't been testing and therefore we only know about the serious cases. Considering 2300 people have died, if you estimated using Germany's statistics, that would mean 226k should have contracted the virus and yet our statistics show 30k. This means they had no way of isolating it, only to shut the country down.
It was all about the testing in the beginning, they messed that up and therefore it became about isolating everybody. So yes, testing can stop you getting it, as people are tracked and isolated earlier.
----------------------------------------------------------------------
so if I get the all clear to-day I can't get it tomorrow.
posted on 2/4/20
comment by Red Russian (U4715)
posted 9 minutes ago
I found this article really useful in understanding the complexity of modelling coronavirus and the variables that should be taken into account when comparing stats:
https://unherd.com/2020/04/how-likely-are-you-to-die-of-coronavirus/
----------------------------------------------------------------------
That's pretty much as good an article as you can get in terms of calculations. IMO with the exception of adjusting down for the impact of lockdown.
posted on 2/4/20
comment by Redvalk (U14242)
posted 1 hour, 14 minutes ago
comment by There'sOnlyOneRed's (U1721)
posted 6 minutes ago
comment by Redvalk (U14242)
posted 2 minutes ago
does testing STOP you from getting Corvid 19 ?
----------------------------------------------------------------------
It can do yes. In Germany they did high numbers of tests and were able to better isolate people due to this. They have reported 78k cases with 931 dead. They are doing over 300k tests per week, meaning they can trace it and isolate it.
The UK have
Here in the UK we haven't been testing and therefore we only know about the serious cases. Considering 2300 people have died, if you estimated using Germany's statistics, that would mean 226k should have contracted the virus and yet our statistics show 30k. This means they had no way of isolating it, only to shut the country down.
It was all about the testing in the beginning, they messed that up and therefore it became about isolating everybody. So yes, testing can stop you getting it, as people are tracked and isolated earlier.
----------------------------------------------------------------------
so if I get the all clear to-day I can't get it tomorrow.
----------------------------------------------------------------------
That's not what I said.
If people were tested and isolated early like in Germany, then less people would have it and you would be less likely to get it.
posted on 2/4/20
comment by There'sOnlyOneRed's (U1721)
posted 34 minutes ago
comment by Redvalk (U14242)
posted 1 hour, 14 minutes ago
comment by There'sOnlyOneRed's (U1721)
posted 6 minutes ago
comment by Redvalk (U14242)
posted 2 minutes ago
does testing STOP you from getting Corvid 19 ?
----------------------------------------------------------------------
It can do yes. In Germany they did high numbers of tests and were able to better isolate people due to this. They have reported 78k cases with 931 dead. They are doing over 300k tests per week, meaning they can trace it and isolate it.
The UK have
Here in the UK we haven't been testing and therefore we only know about the serious cases. Considering 2300 people have died, if you estimated using Germany's statistics, that would mean 226k should have contracted the virus and yet our statistics show 30k. This means they had no way of isolating it, only to shut the country down.
It was all about the testing in the beginning, they messed that up and therefore it became about isolating everybody. So yes, testing can stop you getting it, as people are tracked and isolated earlier.
----------------------------------------------------------------------
so if I get the all clear to-day I can't get it tomorrow.
----------------------------------------------------------------------
That's not what I said.
If people were tested and isolated early like in Germany, then less people would have it and you would be less likely to get it.
----------------------------------------------------------------------
sorry you said "it can do yes" according to German media why is Germany now having second thoughts on the way they have been testing.
posted on 2/4/20
More testing, more isolating, less chance of catching the virus.
In theory the UK's figures will hopefully decrease in about one week's time. Let's hope so
posted on 2/4/20
comment by Admin1 (U1)
posted 4 hours, 38 minutes ago
As an aside
https://www.mirror.co.uk/news/uk-news/coronavirus-live-updates-uk-lockdown-21757656
They quote the figure 1.7 million already infected. That was bang on the figure I theorised to the wife yesterday.
----------------------------------------------------------------------
Whilst i agree the case numbers are far higher i would be very dubious relying on those figures entered by people at home, have seen people all over FB saying things like 'remember that cough i had, i bet that was it' and so on, even my brothers swear they got it on a cruise early but yet nobody seemed to be dying back then.
Page 1 of 2