Mugged off....really? Seriously doesn't take a genius or professor to calculate the death rate based on the population of Britain...60M ish....it works out that the death rate is close to 0.001% or less; I might be an order of magnitude out!
So, Dr. Lee wrote that on March 28th?
I wonder what he's saying today since there seems to be a few more than the 433 he quoted.
The article raises some good points. It does appear that Countries that have carried out more testing have recorded a lower fatality rate. It makes you wonder how many in this Country are/were positive but were asymptomatic or displayed only mild symptoms.
comment by Custardeyes (U4500)
posted 4 minutes ago
The article raises some good points. It does appear that Countries that have carried out more testing have recorded a lower fatality rate. It makes you wonder how many in this Country are/were positive but were asymptomatic or displayed only mild symptoms.
----------------------------------------------------------------------
But UK didn't so you are where you are.
8 days later and all his numbers are already shot down
He also dismisses a different mix of population for different death rates between countries
What a sharticle and people lap it up
Recorded Influenza deaths in the UK for a typical Winter
is around 20,000.
1999/2000 and 2015/16 seen spikes reaching between 44,000-48,000.These are deaths attributed to the flu(there could have been many more recorded as other causes).
I think this year was exceptionally low for recorded deaths by flu(I might be wrong).
So make what you want to make on Covid-19 compared to seasonal flu,but a lot of peoples pensions are basically fooked along with peoples livelihoods.
I read that article a week ago, as well as the Oxford paper. Unfortunately there is a motivation and dare I say it audience desperately looking out for anything that downplays how serious this epidemic is. The Oxford paper in particular theorising 50 percent infection rate was already at the time of "publication" was farcical.
The imperial model(peer reviewed)and paper is certainly more severe than we are likely to see but is closer to what we are seeing in other countries that have traced covid from their patient zero to present day.
The early German figure of 0.3 percent fatality during the period of mass testing (it's now increased) seems the most accurate and is certainly significant enough to back up.the currently desire to lockdown and ease NHS burden.
https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/birthsdeathsandmarriages/deaths/articles/highestnumberofexcesswinterdeathssince19992000/2015-11-25
It isnt solely the death rate that's the concerning thing about it though. It's the severity combined with the rate of infection which is causing health systems to crumble.
I really dont see why there are still people who dont understand this. Do you think we are just filling up hospitals for a laugh?
An absolutely shambolic mess of an article that now looks completely out of sync with where we are.
It also fails to take into account that it’s not just the overall death rate, but the speed at which it happens with a new virus if left unchecked (because no one has any immunity) and what that does to the nhs.
The title of this post isn’t a surprise considering the poster in question.
Anecdotally when was the last time a serving PM was admitted to hospital for flu? This shouldn't be downplayed. Anyone who looks at Spain or Italy or new York should easily see that.
Comment deleted by Article Creator
All I’m saying is that there is a case for more transparency and honesty
I do think the statistics we are being fed are inaccurate or at the very least unbalanced
Why does a 103 year old who had underlying medical issues who recently died become one of the ‘statistics’ being wheeled out to have died from the virus - that is just bollx and misinformation IMO
comment by son of quebec (U8127)
posted 9 minutes ago
comment by Custardeyes (U4500)
posted 4 minutes ago
The article raises some good points. It does appear that Countries that have carried out more testing have recorded a lower fatality rate. It makes you wonder how many in this Country are/were positive but were asymptomatic or displayed only mild symptoms.
----------------------------------------------------------------------
But UK didn't so you are where you are.
----------------------------------------------------------------------
That's the point I wanted to make. The lack of tests appear to make the figures skewed. I wouldn't like to hazard a guess at the amount of people in the UK who are/were positive but haven't been tested.
Oxford https://www.dropbox.com/s/oxmu2rwsnhi9j9c/Draft-COVID-19-Model%20%2813%29.pdf?dl=0
Imperial
https://www.google.com/url?sa=t&source=web&rct=j&url=https://www.imperial.ac.uk/media/imperial-college/medicine/sph/ide/gida-fellowships/Imperial-College-COVID19-NPI-modelling-16-03-2020.pdf&ved=2ahUKEwjR3dbbr9LoAhXCQkEAHVUMAxwQFjAAegQIBxAB&usg=AOvVaw1hsNx-bJFA4q9qC2xTRHVd
Cambridge Massachusetts complex systems
https://necsi.edu/s/EliminatingCOVID-19.pdf
Guys, if you want to add to the conversation, that’s fine irrespective of what side you take - but when you start insulting folk or just being down right obnoxious because you’re unable to debate without insulting people personally, then I’m afraid I’ll just delete you contribution
Just asking for a bit of respect and decency that’s all 👍🏼
Most virus-related deaths have been among people aged 65 years and above, with almost half - 45%- of these occurring in the over-85 age group, according to an analysis of England and Wales cases by the Office of National Statistics.
comment by ThE ReVoLuTiOn Is HeRe (U22182)
posted 3 minutes ago
All I’m saying is that there is a case for more transparency and honesty
I do think the statistics we are being fed are inaccurate or at the very least unbalanced
Why does a 103 year old who had underlying medical issues who recently died become one of the ‘statistics’ being wheeled out to have died from the virus - that is just bollx and misinformation IMO
----------------------------------------------------------------------
Absolutely, the government should be publishing models
that drove policy way back in early march.
The statistics we have are very flawed as without stochastic random populating sampling for both virus and antibody it is very difficult to determine the progression and deadliness of pandemic. However due to the arrival in countries that have traced since patient zero it would indicate the virus is significantly more infectious and deadly than flu. The fact our PM is in hospital should cause even the most cynical mind to sit up.and take notice.
Population of the World is according to worldometers 7,794,798,739 and deaths attributed to Covid-19 today is 4689 and overall since the outbreak is 69,379.
You do the math to see how virulent it is.
On a side note this year alone the population of the earth has increased by 21million+.
Puts all what's going on into some perspective
If old people didnt want to die then why did they get old in the first place its a well known fact that old people die bringing it on themselfs inconvieniencing my day
Comment deleted by Site Moderator
comment by Ollie Crankshaw (U1734)
posted 4 minutes ago
If old people didnt want to die then why did they get old in the first place its a well known fact that old people die bringing it on themselfs inconvieniencing my day
----------------------------------------------------------------------
Fair point Barry.
Given the UK expanded the critical care capacity - also hospitals were still not overwhelmed, yet why are we witnessing so many deaths in the UK? Surely, with all those new ventilators, we should be doing better. Theng is - Oxygen deficiency deaths here was not the main verdict...
Earliest facts we received and Italy was the main exhibit - Unfortunately Covid-19 seems to most seriously affect older people, particularly those with pre-existing conditions such as heart disease, lung disease and diabetes. It could be that an elderly person's immune systems may not be able to fight off the disease as well, and the virus can more easily replicate, overwhelming the body and causing multiple organ system failure.
Common sense will tell you that the death rate will be overstated, as only those who require hospital treatment are tested in the UK. What is more concerning is that deaths world wide are only slightly below that of regular flu since the start of the year, in spite of the fact that this disease has only become wide spread since February. Flu fluctuates according to seasons too and is affected by temperature. Whereas Coronavirus does not. And there is no vaccination at this stage. There are going to be an absolutely huge number of deaths from this, relative to other similar viruses
Sign in if you want to comment
WE’RE ALL BEING MUGGED OFF AS PER USUAL...
Page 1 of 2
posted on 5/4/20
Mugged off....really? Seriously doesn't take a genius or professor to calculate the death rate based on the population of Britain...60M ish....it works out that the death rate is close to 0.001% or less; I might be an order of magnitude out!
posted on 5/4/20
So, Dr. Lee wrote that on March 28th?
I wonder what he's saying today since there seems to be a few more than the 433 he quoted.
posted on 5/4/20
The article raises some good points. It does appear that Countries that have carried out more testing have recorded a lower fatality rate. It makes you wonder how many in this Country are/were positive but were asymptomatic or displayed only mild symptoms.
posted on 5/4/20
comment by Custardeyes (U4500)
posted 4 minutes ago
The article raises some good points. It does appear that Countries that have carried out more testing have recorded a lower fatality rate. It makes you wonder how many in this Country are/were positive but were asymptomatic or displayed only mild symptoms.
----------------------------------------------------------------------
But UK didn't so you are where you are.
posted on 5/4/20
8 days later and all his numbers are already shot down
He also dismisses a different mix of population for different death rates between countries
What a sharticle and people lap it up
posted on 5/4/20
Recorded Influenza deaths in the UK for a typical Winter
is around 20,000.
1999/2000 and 2015/16 seen spikes reaching between 44,000-48,000.These are deaths attributed to the flu(there could have been many more recorded as other causes).
I think this year was exceptionally low for recorded deaths by flu(I might be wrong).
So make what you want to make on Covid-19 compared to seasonal flu,but a lot of peoples pensions are basically fooked along with peoples livelihoods.
posted on 5/4/20
I read that article a week ago, as well as the Oxford paper. Unfortunately there is a motivation and dare I say it audience desperately looking out for anything that downplays how serious this epidemic is. The Oxford paper in particular theorising 50 percent infection rate was already at the time of "publication" was farcical.
The imperial model(peer reviewed)and paper is certainly more severe than we are likely to see but is closer to what we are seeing in other countries that have traced covid from their patient zero to present day.
The early German figure of 0.3 percent fatality during the period of mass testing (it's now increased) seems the most accurate and is certainly significant enough to back up.the currently desire to lockdown and ease NHS burden.
posted on 5/4/20
https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/birthsdeathsandmarriages/deaths/articles/highestnumberofexcesswinterdeathssince19992000/2015-11-25
posted on 5/4/20
It isnt solely the death rate that's the concerning thing about it though. It's the severity combined with the rate of infection which is causing health systems to crumble.
I really dont see why there are still people who dont understand this. Do you think we are just filling up hospitals for a laugh?
posted on 5/4/20
An absolutely shambolic mess of an article that now looks completely out of sync with where we are.
It also fails to take into account that it’s not just the overall death rate, but the speed at which it happens with a new virus if left unchecked (because no one has any immunity) and what that does to the nhs.
The title of this post isn’t a surprise considering the poster in question.
posted on 5/4/20
Anecdotally when was the last time a serving PM was admitted to hospital for flu? This shouldn't be downplayed. Anyone who looks at Spain or Italy or new York should easily see that.
posted on 5/4/20
Comment deleted by Article Creator
posted on 5/4/20
All I’m saying is that there is a case for more transparency and honesty
I do think the statistics we are being fed are inaccurate or at the very least unbalanced
Why does a 103 year old who had underlying medical issues who recently died become one of the ‘statistics’ being wheeled out to have died from the virus - that is just bollx and misinformation IMO
posted on 5/4/20
comment by son of quebec (U8127)
posted 9 minutes ago
comment by Custardeyes (U4500)
posted 4 minutes ago
The article raises some good points. It does appear that Countries that have carried out more testing have recorded a lower fatality rate. It makes you wonder how many in this Country are/were positive but were asymptomatic or displayed only mild symptoms.
----------------------------------------------------------------------
But UK didn't so you are where you are.
----------------------------------------------------------------------
That's the point I wanted to make. The lack of tests appear to make the figures skewed. I wouldn't like to hazard a guess at the amount of people in the UK who are/were positive but haven't been tested.
posted on 5/4/20
Oxford https://www.dropbox.com/s/oxmu2rwsnhi9j9c/Draft-COVID-19-Model%20%2813%29.pdf?dl=0
Imperial
https://www.google.com/url?sa=t&source=web&rct=j&url=https://www.imperial.ac.uk/media/imperial-college/medicine/sph/ide/gida-fellowships/Imperial-College-COVID19-NPI-modelling-16-03-2020.pdf&ved=2ahUKEwjR3dbbr9LoAhXCQkEAHVUMAxwQFjAAegQIBxAB&usg=AOvVaw1hsNx-bJFA4q9qC2xTRHVd
Cambridge Massachusetts complex systems
https://necsi.edu/s/EliminatingCOVID-19.pdf
posted on 5/4/20
Guys, if you want to add to the conversation, that’s fine irrespective of what side you take - but when you start insulting folk or just being down right obnoxious because you’re unable to debate without insulting people personally, then I’m afraid I’ll just delete you contribution
Just asking for a bit of respect and decency that’s all 👍🏼
posted on 6/4/20
Most virus-related deaths have been among people aged 65 years and above, with almost half - 45%- of these occurring in the over-85 age group, according to an analysis of England and Wales cases by the Office of National Statistics.
posted on 6/4/20
comment by ThE ReVoLuTiOn Is HeRe (U22182)
posted 3 minutes ago
All I’m saying is that there is a case for more transparency and honesty
I do think the statistics we are being fed are inaccurate or at the very least unbalanced
Why does a 103 year old who had underlying medical issues who recently died become one of the ‘statistics’ being wheeled out to have died from the virus - that is just bollx and misinformation IMO
----------------------------------------------------------------------
Absolutely, the government should be publishing models
that drove policy way back in early march.
The statistics we have are very flawed as without stochastic random populating sampling for both virus and antibody it is very difficult to determine the progression and deadliness of pandemic. However due to the arrival in countries that have traced since patient zero it would indicate the virus is significantly more infectious and deadly than flu. The fact our PM is in hospital should cause even the most cynical mind to sit up.and take notice.
posted on 6/4/20
pc gone mad
posted on 6/4/20
Population of the World is according to worldometers 7,794,798,739 and deaths attributed to Covid-19 today is 4689 and overall since the outbreak is 69,379.
You do the math to see how virulent it is.
On a side note this year alone the population of the earth has increased by 21million+.
Puts all what's going on into some perspective
posted on 6/4/20
If old people didnt want to die then why did they get old in the first place its a well known fact that old people die bringing it on themselfs inconvieniencing my day
posted on 6/4/20
Comment deleted by Site Moderator
posted on 6/4/20
comment by Ollie Crankshaw (U1734)
posted 4 minutes ago
If old people didnt want to die then why did they get old in the first place its a well known fact that old people die bringing it on themselfs inconvieniencing my day
----------------------------------------------------------------------
Fair point Barry.
posted on 6/4/20
Given the UK expanded the critical care capacity - also hospitals were still not overwhelmed, yet why are we witnessing so many deaths in the UK? Surely, with all those new ventilators, we should be doing better. Theng is - Oxygen deficiency deaths here was not the main verdict...
Earliest facts we received and Italy was the main exhibit - Unfortunately Covid-19 seems to most seriously affect older people, particularly those with pre-existing conditions such as heart disease, lung disease and diabetes. It could be that an elderly person's immune systems may not be able to fight off the disease as well, and the virus can more easily replicate, overwhelming the body and causing multiple organ system failure.
posted on 6/4/20
Common sense will tell you that the death rate will be overstated, as only those who require hospital treatment are tested in the UK. What is more concerning is that deaths world wide are only slightly below that of regular flu since the start of the year, in spite of the fact that this disease has only become wide spread since February. Flu fluctuates according to seasons too and is affected by temperature. Whereas Coronavirus does not. And there is no vaccination at this stage. There are going to be an absolutely huge number of deaths from this, relative to other similar viruses
Page 1 of 2