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Do masters champions win slams?

I was wondering how often the winners of the Masters tournaments in the run-up to the slams go on to also win the slam. I was surprised that actually it is not all that often.

I looked at 40 years of history (1972 - 2011) for Monte Carlo, Rome, Canadian Open and Cincy - the four Masters tourneys that are part of the season leading up to a slam - and counted the number of times that the winner also won the next slam:

MC/RG XXX XXX XXX XXX XXX XXX XXX XXX XXX XXX XXX XXX XXX XXX 14
XXX XXX XXX XXX XXX XXX XXX XXX XXX XXX XXX XXX XXX XXX XXX
Rome/RG XXX XXX XXX XXX XXX XXX XXX XXX XXX XXX XXX 11
XXX XXX XXX XXX XXX XXX XXX XXX XXX XXX XXX XXX XXX XXX XXX
Cdn/US XXX XXX XXX XXX XXX XXX XXX XXX XXX XXX XXX 11
XXX XXX XXX XXX XXX XXX XXX XXX XXX XXX XXX XXX XXX XXX XXX
Cincy/US XXX XXX XXX XXX XXX XXX 6


Out of last 40 Monte Carlo winners, 14 went on to win the French. However, this is quite heavily skewed by Nadal who himself did it six times.

On the other extreme is Cincy, whose winners hardly ever win the US Open - only 6 times over the last 40 years.

While I was initially mostly interested in Monte Carlo and Rome, simply because we are in the clay season, I was actually most intrigued by the Cincy result. Why is it so low? Is it because players are not interested enough in Cincy? Are they getting tired towards the end of the season and are sort of resting before the US Open? Or are the conditions there very different from the US Open?

Anyway, based on this study I conclude that Rafa has now 35% chance of winning the French this year

posted on 24/4/12

@nitb
Fognini?
----------------

That was funny.

I too won't mind a non-top 4 winning RG.
Lets see the candidates...Ferrer?? For that to happen, he must not face any of the top 3 else it will be an easy loss. Murray he can beat on clay so that's no threat. He needs the kind of luck Murray had in reaching the AO 2011 finals or even Nadal in USopen 2010. Can happen, but I still migh back the guy on the other side. He is solid in play but just doesn't posses any threatening weapons.

If Berdy could sort out his mind, and get a drop-shot and a better volley ( especially a short volley ), he does have all the other weapons. But if that can happen easily, a lot of other players could have been GS winners ( e.g. Nalby, Coria)


If Delpo can find that 2009 form, he can pass through lot of tough test, even can claim RG. But he too doesn't draw lot of confidence from me. I saw how he lost to Ferrer in Miami where Ferrer beat him in every single dept. of the game including aces. I also saw how Granollers ( he will be top-3 in the most ugly game in my list) beat him last year in Valencia.

Tsonga is an unsettled talent. Plus his game doesn't suite clay a lot.

Who else? Isner?? I can back him to cause an upset, but causing a string of upsets all in one tournament is beyond him. Tactical players like Murray are his horrible match-ups.

Who else? Simon? No a chance in hell. Monaco?? Ha ha.. naah.. running a whacking the ball can win a ATP250-500... but not a slam.

Anyone outside top 20? Raonic? Not ready as yet.

Dolgo?? Very talented, but needs to use some brains. I pointed out some areas of improvement for him like 1. better 1st serve %. 2. Better net play. 3. Reading the game better etc. He can push anyone, and cause some upsets. But not there to win a slam..


So basically we have the top 4. In my opinion its top-3, as I still don't count Murray to be winning it. As I have said years back, Murray is at his peak, he is just about as far as his kind of counter-puncher-wait-for-errors game can take a player. Winning a slam would need huge stroke of luck...huge..really huge.

posted on 24/4/12

You are right ROTLA; when you break it down, you just can't see any of them stringing 3 big matches. Strange...

Last time anyone did it was Delpo, he's the one with a theoretical chance, but he's really not that good against Nole and even Fed.
Yesh,it will be one of the thre...or two, ok....Nole

posted on 24/4/12

@ nitb

----
And this was supposed to be the greatest era ever?? Funny.. Forget slams, I can't even imagine someone other than top-4 winning a masters. In 2011 all were won by top-4. In 2010 Soderling, Roddick and Lubicic won masters. Now they all have gone. Can anyone rise up?

posted on 24/4/12

Well, you know what Ljubicic said: the top 4 play defence too well.
You know my view about the death of tennis

comment by Tenez (U6808)

posted on 24/4/12

We will seee. At teh end of the day anything can happen. JUst look at last Sunday...teh unthinkable happened.

posted on 24/4/12

I know...I'm still believing I'll win Wimbledon one day....I don't know how, but I am

posted on 25/4/12

Can Federer beat Nadal at RG ?

I think he has the temperament to do it again, I mean win it, but of course Nadal wasnt there then, but in all seriousness, has Federer got the groundstrokes to take Nadal in a final, or even a semi or Quarter ?

posted on 25/4/12

Spriteful,
how can Federer take Nadal in the quarter?

that may well be n next year, and then anything could happen

posted on 26/4/12

Metaphorically speaking Noleisthebest.

Not so sure that Roger is near the end of his career. If he can manifest a Gold Medal and do well at either the USO or the WTF's, then he may see 2013 as his swansong on go out and have 2014 as his testimonial year.

I certainly don't see him as an old man though, he's still very much in the mix.

posted on 26/4/12

I know he is.

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