I was wondering how often the winners of the Masters tournaments in the run-up to the slams go on to also win the slam. I was surprised that actually it is not all that often.
I looked at 40 years of history (1972 - 2011) for Monte Carlo, Rome, Canadian Open and Cincy - the four Masters tourneys that are part of the season leading up to a slam - and counted the number of times that the winner also won the next slam:
MC/RG | XXX | XXX | XXX | XXX | XXX | XXX | XXX | XXX | XXX | XXX | XXX | XXX | XXX | XXX | 14 |
XXX | XXX | XXX | XXX | XXX | XXX | XXX | XXX | XXX | XXX | XXX | XXX | XXX | XXX | XXX | |
Rome/RG | XXX | XXX | XXX | XXX | XXX | XXX | XXX | XXX | XXX | XXX | XXX | 11 | |||
XXX | XXX | XXX | XXX | XXX | XXX | XXX | XXX | XXX | XXX | XXX | XXX | XXX | XXX | XXX | |
Cdn/US | XXX | XXX | XXX | XXX | XXX | XXX | XXX | XXX | XXX | XXX | XXX | 11 | |||
XXX | XXX | XXX | XXX | XXX | XXX | XXX | XXX | XXX | XXX | XXX | XXX | XXX | XXX | XXX | |
Cincy/US | XXX | XXX | XXX | XXX | XXX | XXX | 6 |
Out of last 40 Monte Carlo winners, 14 went on to win the French. However, this is quite heavily skewed by Nadal who himself did it six times.
On the other extreme is Cincy, whose winners hardly ever win the US Open - only 6 times over the last 40 years.
While I was initially mostly interested in Monte Carlo and Rome, simply because we are in the clay season, I was actually most intrigued by the Cincy result. Why is it so low? Is it because players are not interested enough in Cincy? Are they getting tired towards the end of the season and are sort of resting before the US Open? Or are the conditions there very different from the US Open?
Anyway, based on this study I conclude that Rafa has now 35% chance of winning the French this year