Federer to overtake Nadal

On July 8, 2007, exactly ony month before his 26th birthday, Federer won his 11th slam at Wimbledon. Nadal will turn 26 one month from tomorrow. Tomorrow, for the first time, Nadal will hold fewer slams than Federer held at the same age.

While Nadal has been chasing Federer totals on a career total basis, when we put them side-by-side on an equal age basis, it has been Federer who has been playing catch up.

Federer won his first slam one month before turning 22. At the same age, Nadal already held 3 slams (and was going to win two more over the following two months). Since then, Federer has been chipping away at Nadal's lead. Now, for the first time, he moves ahead. Of course, Nadal can regain the lost ground over the next few months.

It will be interesting to see where Nadal goes from here. Federer's 11th slam was quickly followed by the 12th at the USO '07 but that really marked the end of his super-dominance and further slams came at a much slower pace. Nadal is now also reaching the age when tennis players have traditionally slowed down. I wonder, will he slow down also or will he manage to buck the trend? That will determine whether or not he ultimately catches up with Federer's career totals.