People are quick to laugh at Mark Lawrenson and his predictions, but how delusional is he?
His table is at the bottom of this:
https://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/amp/football/53562343
Obviously the first thing to note, Liverpool didnt win the league despite being unbeaten. Lawro was only 5 points away from Liverpools actual total, but overpredicted City by a massive 26 points
Spurs are the next team Lawro has a blind spot for, 3rd and also 26 points better off in Lawros table. They and Chelsea (+18pts) finished above Man Utd. However, Lawro was actually spot on with his United point total.
Along with United, Lawro wasnt too far out with Leicester, spot on with Wolves, close enough for Arsenal, and correct with Burnleys points.
A third massive oversight for Lawro was Sheffield United. 21 points worse off and fighting for survival rather than Europe for Lawro.
Norwich aside, Lawro wasn't too successful with the bottom. Palace and Brighton went down, but in reality were pretty comfortable with 16vand 14 more points in real life.
Watford and Bournemouth who did go down in reality were 12th and 13th in Lawros league.
Bar a few understandable shockers, Lawro wasn't that far off.
As you can see from the link, he predicts Arsenal to win tomorrow. I think this shows we can trust his judgement.
Lawro's final table.
posted on 31/7/20
comment by D'Jeezus Mackaroni (U1137)
posted 1 hour, 37 minutes ago
Yes, that is true.
It is also true Liverpool haven't lost in 3 years in his predictions
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In 3 years Liverpool’s have lost 9 games out of 114.
That’s a 92% accuracy for his predictions. Thanks for playing though 😊
posted on 31/7/20
comment by CutMeAndIBleedRed (U7593)
posted 3 minutes ago
comment by D'Jeezus Mackaroni (U1137)
posted 1 hour, 37 minutes ago
Yes, that is true.
It is also true Liverpool haven't lost in 3 years in his predictions
----------------------------------------------------------------------
In 3 years Liverpool’s have lost 9 games out of 114.
That’s a 92% accuracy for his predictions. Thanks for playing though 😊
----------------------------------------------------------------------
Well, if you only accept two possible outcomes...
posted on 31/7/20
We either lose or we don't. It's a 50:50 outcome which he's got right 92% of the time.
God bless MarLaw
posted on 31/7/20
Predicting is more about probability than gut feel. You are never going to select Norwich to win for example.
posted on 31/7/20
comment by Vidicschin (U3584)
posted 3 hours, 18 minutes ago
comment by merrysupersteve (U1132)
posted 54 minutes ago
Bear in mind though that he's making his predictions as the season progresses, and it's easier to predict based on knowledge of form etc. So you or I attempting to predict a league table and points tallies at the start of a season is significantly more difficult than making results predictions on a weekly basis
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Exactly this.
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Why would he end up with City on 107 points (!) if he was predicting as the season progresses?
posted on 31/7/20
I believe this table of lacrosse was laughed at when it came out and it is what it is. he and his editor were so focused on getting a reaction they never bothered to try to make it in any shape or form realistic.
we all knew spurs had a big hangover so to get the top 4 wrong and only 1 of the bottom 3 isn't great.
posted on 31/7/20
comment by D'Jeezus Mackaroni (U1137)
posted 4 hours, 27 minutes ago
comment by CutMeAndIBleedRed (U7593)
posted 3 minutes ago
comment by D'Jeezus Mackaroni (U1137)
posted 1 hour, 37 minutes ago
Yes, that is true.
It is also true Liverpool haven't lost in 3 years in his predictions
----------------------------------------------------------------------
In 3 years Liverpool’s have lost 9 games out of 114.
That’s a 92% accuracy for his predictions. Thanks for playing though 😊
----------------------------------------------------------------------
Well, if you only accept two possible outcomes...
----------------------------------------------------------------------
Predicted ‘liverpool havent LOST in 3 years‘ - now who put it in those words.....?? 🤣
posted on 31/7/20
But it isn't 92% accuracy in his predictions. Because there are 3 possibilities, not 2.
You could say he has been right 92% of the time not to predict a loss, but that doesn't mean he has a 92% accuracy for his predictions.
posted on 1/8/20
Dont think his predictions are that bad to be honest. Would love to see a comparison with charlie nicholas's on sky which would have had city winning the league with 38 wins in a row, arsenal tucked just behind them, us in about 8th place and spurs relegated.
posted on 1/8/20
comment by CutMeAndIBleedRed (U7593)
posted 17 hours, 20 minutes ago
comment by D'Jeezus Mackaroni (U1137)
posted 4 hours, 27 minutes ago
comment by CutMeAndIBleedRed (U7593)
posted 3 minutes ago
comment by D'Jeezus Mackaroni (U1137)
posted 1 hour, 37 minutes ago
Yes, that is true.
It is also true Liverpool haven't lost in 3 years in his predictions
----------------------------------------------------------------------
In 3 years Liverpool’s have lost 9 games out of 114.
That’s a 92% accuracy for his predictions. Thanks for playing though 😊
----------------------------------------------------------------------
Well, if you only accept two possible outcomes...
----------------------------------------------------------------------
Predicted ‘liverpool havent LOST in 3 years‘ - now who put it in those words.....?? 🤣
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Some Liverpool fans are shameless