SE85's article got me wondering how this half-season compares with recent ones. I'd never thought to check before and haven't seen it discussed, so I looked up the tables at the relevant points and did the math.
In the 2019-20 season:
first 19 games - 28 points GD +7
final 19 games - 38 points GD +23
...compared with this season:
first 19 games - 40 points GD +11
I was a bit surprised to see we've won more points in the first half of this season than the second half of the previous, where our form - to my memory - was generally better. I guess the twice-superior goal difference reflects that impression that we've been grinding out wins this season more than blowing teams away. We've also been leakier at the back. Maybe it suggests our league position at the halfway point is also a bit flattering. There have been several wins that could easily have been draws. On the other hand, we've achieved this despite the handicap of being visibly off pace fitness wise for the first 2-3 weeks, so perhaps the disadvantage and the run of the ball cancel each other out.
Overall, that looks to me a picture of steady progress. If we can get the attacking players in the form they showed in the second half of the 2019-20 season, we can aspire to post a fourth straight half-season of improved points totals.
Halfway - another perspective
posted on 21/1/21
comment by Red Russian (U4715)
posted 6 minutes ago
comment by Winston (U16525)
posted 7 minutes ago
Really interesting article.
Cheeky request, but would be interested to see comparisons with other managers and seasons?
The signs are that Ole has moved the squad forward but we need to see the rest of the season play out really.
----------------------------------------------------------------------
Great idea Winston. If you'd like to collate all the info, I'll gladly amend my OP! https://www.premierleague.com/
----------------------------------------------------------------------
Will see how my evening goes!!
posted on 21/1/21
I think we're at the stage where it can go either way.
--------------------------------------------------------------------
Totally agree Diafol. I'm always cautious about seeing trends and assuming they will be perpetuated in football. Both because trends change (obviously) and because patterns like the 'steady progress' in points totals shown in the stats in OP belie the randomness and fine margins of football. We could have performed exactly the same this season and been 10 points worse off, or (less likely) 6 points better off.
As for our prospects for the next 19 league games, we can look at it in two ways. 1) We've been eking out wins and eventually we'll come unstuck. 2) We've posted our best half-season total under Ole and are in touch with the title race despite our defence starting the season in much shakier form than in 2019-20 and despite Rashford, Martial and Greenwood not being in the form we saw in the run-in of last season, so we know we can be better than this.
I feel it's a pretty safe bet that we'll need to move up a gear if we're to stay at the top of the table toward the end of the season. Both in terms of not relying on the run of the ball in close matches and because we can't rely on Liverpool and City continuing to drop points.
posted on 21/1/21
i appreciate tthis article
very interesting read
I am hoping our attackers find the sort of form they had last season
posted on 21/1/21
The mad thing is that we dropped 11 of our 17 points in the first 6 games. Our record since the Arsenal game has been really impressive even if our performances haven’t considering the squad probably are feeling the effects of no preseason and a very hectic end to last season. If we can keep this form up it’ll be brilliant but I do except us to have a dip at some point. I also think our second half results last season really benefited from the lockdown break.
posted on 21/1/21
comment by manutd1982 (U6633)
posted 27 minutes ago
The mad thing is that we dropped 11 of our 17 points in the first 6 games. Our record since the Arsenal game has been really impressive even if our performances haven’t considering the squad probably are feeling the effects of no preseason and a very hectic end to last season. If we can keep this form up it’ll be brilliant but I do except us to have a dip at some point. I also think our second half results last season really benefited from the lockdown break.
----------------------------------------------------------------------
As to your final sentence, 1982, I recall our form was excellent at the time the lockdown happened and feeling disappointed we didn't get to play Spurs when they were in the quagmire. Hard to do counterfactuals, but I thought we more or less picked up where we left off after the lockdown.
This season I think it's entirely plausible that we play at a higher level in the second half of the season and register a better goal difference than in the first, but end up picking up fewer points. Because football is like that!
posted on 21/1/21
comment by Red Russian (U4715)
posted 1 hour, 2 minutes ago
comment by manutd1982 (U6633)
posted 27 minutes ago
The mad thing is that we dropped 11 of our 17 points in the first 6 games. Our record since the Arsenal game has been really impressive even if our performances haven’t considering the squad probably are feeling the effects of no preseason and a very hectic end to last season. If we can keep this form up it’ll be brilliant but I do except us to have a dip at some point. I also think our second half results last season really benefited from the lockdown break.
----------------------------------------------------------------------
As to your final sentence, 1982, I recall our form was excellent at the time the lockdown happened and feeling disappointed we didn't get to play Spurs when they were in the quagmire. Hard to do counterfactuals, but I thought we more or less picked up where we left off after the lockdown.
This season I think it's entirely plausible that we play at a higher level in the second half of the season and register a better goal difference than in the first, but end up picking up fewer points. Because football is like that!
----------------------------------------------------------------------
That's how I remember it. In fact, I think that we played better before the break than after.
posted on 21/1/21
comment by Red Russian (U4715)
posted 1 hour, 56 minutes ago
I think we're at the stage where it can go either way.
--------------------------------------------------------------------
Totally agree Diafol. I'm always cautious about seeing trends and assuming they will be perpetuated in football. Both because trends change (obviously) and because patterns like the 'steady progress' in points totals shown in the stats in OP belie the randomness and fine margins of football. We could have performed exactly the same this season and been 10 points worse off, or (less likely) 6 points better off.
As for our prospects for the next 19 league games, we can look at it in two ways. 1) We've been eking out wins and eventually we'll come unstuck. 2) We've posted our best half-season total under Ole and are in touch with the title race despite our defence starting the season in much shakier form than in 2019-20 and despite Rashford, Martial and Greenwood not being in the form we saw in the run-in of last season, so we know we can be better than this.
I feel it's a pretty safe bet that we'll need to move up a gear if we're to stay at the top of the table toward the end of the season. Both in terms of not relying on the run of the ball in close matches and because we can't rely on Liverpool and City continuing to drop points.
----------------------------------------------------------------------
I absolutely think we do have it in us to move up a gear and be good to very good on a more consistent basis. You'd think this would lead to more chances, goals and wins but, as we all know, ot doesn't always work out that way.
It is good to see us in and around the top though at long last and let's hope that continues. In what could still be a strange ending to the season in terms of Covid outbreaks (Aguero news today!) then points on the board now could be invaluable.
posted on 21/1/21
Yeah looking back we had a couple of great results just before lockdown but weren’t we also booed in January last year at home? It definitely didn’t seem like a prolonged period of good form, just 2 or 3 games but for some reason my memory round then seems to be pretty fuzzy so maybe you and Elvis are right. But it did seem that our good form post lockdown was also largely due to us being able to play at a pretty high tempo with many fans concerned how it would last which it seemingly didn’t towards the end where we tired out. Had there been no lockdown I wonder how we would have dealt with the rest of the season?
Like you say anything could happen this season and a lot will depend on keeping key players fit, especially Bruno.
posted on 21/1/21
https://www.skysports.com/football/news/11667/12194634/wayne-rooney-manchester-united-will-win-premier-league-this-season
Wayne Rooney convinced we will win the league.
posted on 22/1/21
I think we are mostly all agreed that this team has a higher ceiling in terms of performance, and I see no reason why we can't pick up in the second half of the season. Wins breed confidence which might facilitate the players to perform better in the next 19 games.
What I would say is that in even in the games where we have had to come from behind, I believe the performances warranted the victories. We have rode our luck at times during those games, but I don't think we have been lucky. Fulham was another example. They scored and we seemed to wake up.