So with deadline day passed, now seems a good time to assess how we think the club has done this summer, as well as over the last couple of seasons, at investing in the squad, and improving the level of the playing staff. This is focused on senior and U23 players, but worth acknowledging the arrival of Daryl Ombang, James Debayo, Cuba Cline, and Luca Thomas, brought in from Bradford, Watford, Liverpool, and Man City respectively. We will start with the youth recruitment.
Last summer saw us add Joe Gelhardt (Wigan), Sam Greenwood (Arsenal), Cody Drameh (Fulham), Crysencio Summerville (Feyenoord), all of whom have made matchday squads in the Premier League since, with Sam Greenwood having made his competitive debut for the club. This was all for an outlay of roughly 3 million, with add-ons. This summer we have added Amari Miller and Sean McGurk (from Birmingham and Wigan respectively, and both for minimal fees), who have started well for the U23s, Lewis Bate (Chelsea), and Leo Hjelde (Celtic), for again, about 3 million. We have also signed Norweigian youth goalkeeper Kristoffer Klaesson for about 2 million, who will be second choice for the senior team, but also start for the U23s, similar to Meslier when he first signed.
So that makes 8/9 additions for the U23s over the last two summers, with half of those having made senior matchday squads this season. Hard to gauge whether or not this is good investment, but, in my opinion, almost all of these have the ability to play for the senior team. It's just a matter of waiting for the right time for them to be given a chance. If we hadn't made such hard work of the Crewe game then I suspect Summerville would have been used, as well as Charlie Cresswell.
Speaking of Cresswell, let's talk about a less fashionable aspect of the transfer window: player retention. We can see from the likes of Villa, that one way of increasing spend and investment is by selling key assets. This is a strategy that Leeds have resisted this summer. We know that there has been interest in several of our key players, with Kinnear confirming that the club rejected numerous approaches for Raphinha, and with Bamford and Meslier both signing long term deals amidst interest from clubs who are, at the moment, further up the footballing food chain. The fact we are going into this season having retained Raph, Kalvin, Bamford, Meslier, and Dallas, who will all have attracted attention, is a real positive for the club.
The other signings from last season are Robin Koch (12m), Rodrigo (27m), and Llorente (18m), as well as permanent deals for Meslier (5m) and Costa (15m). All three have had fairly stop/start beginnings to their careers with us, but I have seen enough in Llorente to say that he has been a good signing. Looks like a class player, worth more than we spent. Rodrigo is probably the biggest worry, and we haven't seen enough consistency from him, but his time off the pitch with us has been very inconsistent, so I'm willing to give him time. Altogether, I think the spending last summer was very positive, with Raph and Llorente the stand-outs, Meslier a bargain, and Rodrigo and Koch still works in progress.
The big topic is obviously this summer's spending. Harrison, to start with, is a player worth three times what we paid for him, at the very least. Another steal. Firpo for 12m looks like good business, and a relatively low-risk signing, whilst James for 25 looks a lot of money, but taking into account the cut-price for Harrison, I can forgive it. Do we need another CM? Maybe, but the club is putting faith in Forshaw and Shackleton stepping up, and I'm happy to back that decision, with Jack Jenkins and Lewis Bate both being talented options from the U23s.
Of these players, I think we would comfortably bring in profits on Meslier and Raphinha (though I wouldn't want to sell either), and it is worth pointing out Struijk, signed on a free, who we would probably also get a large profit on. Llorente is, for me, worth more than we spent, but his age may limit his profitability, but I wouldn't be looking to sell anyway, so that doesn't really matter to me. Rodrigo was never signed with the belief we would get more than we spent on him, but to help us consolidate our PL place over the time he was here.
My aims for the season remain largely the same. Consolidation in a midtable position, anywhere between 8th and 12th and I would be happy, retaining Bielsa, and seeing the continued development of both senior and youth players to establish a foundation for ourselves in the league. I believe this summer sets us up well to achieve each of these things.
Happy for people to disagree with me, though. All dissenting views welcome in my comments section!
Transfer business
posted on 1/9/21
If we were keeping costa I wouldn't mind the james price tag. But that's a huge price for not that much of an improvement.
Also I don't think alioski was our weakest player last year , that would be cooper. Will cost us a lot of points this year. I know this is an unpopular opinion on here but he's just too slow and constantly holding someone's shirt.
posted on 1/9/21
Really good summary Lubo.
We saw glimpses of brilliance from Rodrigo last year. He just needs a run of games and luck.
However, with James arriving, could Raphinha play in the centre, behind Bamford?
And I agree with Mont on Cooper, although I'm a bit disappointed in Koch so far. Not sure he's on the wavelength yet.
Totally agree on Llorente - the best signing so far, behind Raphinha.
And that's an interesting idea - that signing James will keep MB happy. He's got to be happy - the club are not selling our best players, as well as buying new players.
And Forshaw might well end up surprising us all, you never know.
Anyhow, fingers crossed for Paddy Bamford during this international break, and all the Leeds players involved in games. Heard Stuart Dallas is not playing for Norn Ireland - maybe still feeling that assault by Barnes? Hope he's alright.
posted on 1/9/21
All the Bielsa ringing, I think most of us on here agree with you that signing another midfielder to iether play alongside KP or as cover for KP was a priority during this transfer window and it seems Leeds had put all their eggs in one basket trying to get Gallagher.
A similar player or a player of KPs ability would be someone like Declan Rice and you're talking 50-60 million. On the continent there was De Paul at about 37 million and a few others similarly priced and obviously too expensive for us
I personally liked the Fulham midfielder Harrison Reid and thought he would have fitted the bill and also Buendia at Norwich but he chose Villa.
Therefore after failing to land Gallagher I think Bielsa has probably decided Foreshaw and Shackleton and Dallas will do a job in the middle when called upon and O'brien at Huddersfield was not seen as an improvement on what we already have.
With a lot of speculation that Bielsa will play James and Harrison as wingers and move Raphina into an attacking central role I'm looking forward to seeing Kevin Keeganesque 4-3 and 5-4 matches not necessarily with us always on the winning side though.
posted on 2/9/21
comment by All the Bielsa ringing (U19827)
posted 2 hours, 6 minutes ago
Do we need another CM? Maybe, but the club is putting faith in Forshaw and Shackleton stepping up, and I'm happy to back that decision, with Jack Jenkins and Lewis Bate both being talented options from the U23s.
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I think this is the most important question in your excellent summary, Lubo, but I do not see how you can be happy with Shacks and Forshaw as our backups in midfield. The fact is that without KP in front of the back four, our win rate disappears. We have tried Koch, Struijk and Dallas in that role, but there is nobody who can transition our play like KP. Many of our goals last season came from fast transition from defence to attack with KP providing a decisive pass to a winger. And of course, we had Pablo, who could play those passes with a blindfold on.
I hope people disagree with me here, but I think we bought in the wrong kind of player for what we need. 25 million would have bought any number of decent midfielders.
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Bckup to Phillips is obviously a hot point of contention, but I'm not sure its really as simple as signing a player to back him up. Phillips is, ostensibly, the lynchpin of how we set up, and is a nailed on starter week in/week out, so whoever we signed would have to be comfortable knowing this. Not only does this raise the question of whether or not you would want to sign a player with this mentality, but it also presents three plausible possibilities in terms of recruitment.
A.) Sign a young understudy, who can be developed into a Phillips equivalent over a few years (the club may think they have this in Jenkins/Kenneh, or can achieve it with Bate), B.) Sign a mediocre covering player to specifically cover the Phillips role (the club probably decided against this as we already have Forshaw, who practically sums that role up to a tee), or C.) Sign an ageing veteran, who is happy to sit on the bench and cover the position for a couple of seasons, then replace (a la James Milner from Liverpool, for instance).
In my view, the club have opted for A and B, with Bate signed as the long term replacement, whilst Forshaw and Koch cover the role for this season. This saves future investment, as Bate will, hopefully, be ready to provide support in the position next summer. If not, then the club has expended relatively little, as opposed to spending 8-10 mill on a backup option we have to replace next year because they aren't good enough (such as Lewis O'Brien).
posted on 2/9/21
comment by montleeds (U18330)
posted 10 hours, 5 minutes ago
If we were keeping costa I wouldn't mind the james price tag. But that's a huge price for not that much of an improvement.
Also I don't think alioski was our weakest player last year , that would be cooper. Will cost us a lot of points this year. I know this is an unpopular opinion on here but he's just too slow and constantly holding someone's shirt.
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I think James will be a huge improvement over Costa. For a start he’s not afraid to run at and past opponents. He’s direct and obviously believes his own ability - something Costa struggled with.
posted on 2/9/21
i cannot believe some think james is not an improvement on costapacketfornout.....
james fees up raffi to maraud up front, he will be a nightmare in a free no.10 role, with harrison & james on either wing
posted on 2/9/21
comment by Jaz63 (U8369)
posted 9 hours, 56 minutes ago
Really good summary Lubo.
We saw glimpses of brilliance from Rodrigo last year. He just needs a run of games and luck.
However, with James arriving, could Raphinha play in the centre, behind Bamford?
And I agree with Mont on Cooper, although I'm a bit disappointed in Koch so far. Not sure he's on the wavelength yet.
Totally agree on Llorente - the best signing so far, behind Raphinha.
And that's an interesting idea - that signing James will keep MB happy. He's got to be happy - the club are not selling our best players, as well as buying new players.
And Forshaw might well end up surprising us all, you never know.
Anyhow, fingers crossed for Paddy Bamford during this international break, and all the Leeds players involved in games. Heard Stuart Dallas is not playing for Norn Ireland - maybe still feeling that assault by Barnes? Hope he's alright.
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spot on
posted on 2/9/21
comment by Macca: Emily Bishop's love child (U8194)
posted 14 hours, 56 minutes ago
I think the other sizeable positive with us signing James is that it may suggest that the club sees a future for Bielsa here beyond next summer. It could certainly serve as a further incentive for him to commit to that,
Excellent point Lubo, I don't think many would have noticed that, it almost sneaked under the radar.
Consequently as long as Bielsa is with us then the longer we will hang onto the likes of Raphina and attract other players of the quality of Raphina.
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Absolutely. Definitely gives a positive feeling about the potential for Bielsa to be around for a while.
One other (unpopular) way to look at the James signing is that if Raph was to have his head turned by champions league football, we will be in less of a difficult situation. Overall a smart transfer by the club.
posted on 2/9/21
comment by HaveFaithInLeeds (U8688)
posted 21 hours, 53 minutes ago
Happy with the u23s recruitment and the success of Struijk will mean that his value probably already pays for the fees of all u23 signings made since Orta arrived.
James does seem over priced and I do think we have been out negotiated here. But would have been tough because every man and his dog knew how much Bielsa wanted him. That was obviously used against us and the club had a choice, say no to Bielsa and sign no one or take the £5-8million hit and move on.
We do need another CM, but we will be fine without.
Any talk of Europe at this stage is nonsense. Consolidation is all that we can expect. Its not exciting but it's impossible to expect more. anywhere above 14th aint bad.
I expect Firpo to be a sizable improvement on Alioski who despite some very good performances was often our weakest player last season.
We can be confident that the James & Firpo are improvements on the outgoing 2 which can only be a positive.
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The James transfer fee pays Ronaldo’s reported £385,000 per week wages for 15 months; I’m guessing the extra £5million is a ‘final day’ premium. Them there’s a letter of the £52,000 James was on at Man Utd. Has anyone any idea the weekly wages he has agreed with us yet?
posted on 4/9/21
Some excellent insights on this thread - I’m not a natural analyst so I find all these opinions helpful in forming my own. From the little I know about football, I can’t help but feel Dan James will prove a good signing - as well as serving to keep Bielsa happy. I’m also pleased to see others recognising that Cooper is a growing liability. He’s a legend at this club but time moves on, and before too long, so must Liam. Thanks again Lubo for an excellent post.