After a quiet and slightly disappointing Six Nations last time out there was some sniggering at talks of a Polish training camp rejuventaing Wales. But once they touched down in New Zealand it was evident that this was a very different Welsh side, newly galvanised behind Sam Warburton they came within a point of a place in the final, but where do they go from here?
Last Year: Fourth
Fixtures:
Sun 5th Feb 15:00 Ireland v Wales
Sun 12th Feb15:00 Wales v Scotland
Sat 25th Feb 16:00 England v Wales
Sat 10th Mar 14:30 Wales v Italy
Sat 17th Mar 14:45 Wales v France
The fixture list is not one set up to favour the Welsh, had it been next year they could well have gone to the Stade Francais for a Grand Slam showdown, instead they start at Lansdowne Road against an Irish side thirsty for revenge, then have two easily winable home fixtures around a trip to Twickenham where they have won once in 23 years before a hoem game against a possibly Slam chasign French side.
The Welsh pack is probably the strongest in the whole Six Nations and will be a fearsome beast to face, however, halfback seems to be developing into something of an achilles heel and could denued a backline with much potential, though how they cope without Shane Williams remains to be seen. Indeed whilst Wales have gained one hero in Warburton they have lost another - odd indeed that they share the same initials (and also those of South Wales!) - and it will be interesting to see how Warburton performs with the weight of possibly the most rugby-fanatic nation on earth on his shoulders. This may also be true of George North and I'd also like to put in a nod to Morgan Stoddart who I consider to be a truly exceptional player, who plays the game with real style and sophistication.
I'll start the final section by making my prediction, before justifying it - part to you and part to me. I think Wales will finish fourth.
This pseudo-analysed result does not sit comfortably with my instinct, whcih says first or second. The reason for this is I believe Ireland will win the first game, England will win at Twickenham - 1 win in 23 years are some odds to overcome - and I think France will win in Wales in a largely dead game for the Welsh. Therein lies the theory, and as I said even to me it doesn't sit well with instinct, had this been an odd numbered year I could well be predicting a Slam, but as my old boss always used to say "only the hindsight forecast is 100% correct"
What do you think? Where have I got it right / wrong?
Six Nations Preview - Wales
posted on 30/1/12
Also just read this:
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Welsh coach Warren Gatland has delayed the naming of his Wales team to face Ireland because of injury concerns to Rhys Priestland and Dan Lydiate.
Gatland has given outhalf, Priestland (knee) and blindside flanker Lydiate (ankle) until Friday to prove their fitness, when he is then expected to name the starting team to face Ireland.
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Injuries like this would be good for Ireland, tho it remains to be seen how legit they are. Also to be fair i would rather we play a full strength Welsh side. Not for bragging rights, but to really get an idea of where we stand.
Also from a Welsh point of view, a win in Dublin is going to kick start them big time and if history holds true a welsh team off to a winning start against a good side are very difficult to stop.
posted on 30/1/12
For me Priestland is the one that will make the biggest difference, even though Jenkins is the better player. If Priestland is out it could be Mike Phillips and / or Stephen Jones - thats pretty much ten man rugby
posted on 30/1/12
It seems that Hook is First choice after Priestland, Jones has been called up to the welsh squad as "training cover" but they seem dead set on Hook at ten should Priestland not make it.
I have always rated Hook very highly but ONLY as a centre. Never as a Ten. For me a great centre but an emergency ten.
posted on 30/1/12
So we're roughly all agreed that the table will be something like
France W5 L0
Ireland W3 L2
England W3 L2
Wales W2 L3
Scotland W1 L4
Italy W0 L5
posted on 30/1/12
SARS could well be that way, but ignoring scotland and italy i think the other 4 are interchangeable.
Tho realistically we sort of have a 2 tier competition going on, with Scotland and Italy in tier 2.
And in tier 1 England and France are unknown quantities.
its set to be a very interesting tournament, with this first weekend only having one pivotal game. Wales v Ireland as you would expect England and France to come away with a win each. The Wales, Ireland clash sets up one of the main contenders from the get-go
Time perhaps too get a sportsguru pool going... if there is any interest from others i will start one otherwise never mind and also bite me! ;-D
posted on 30/1/12
What is a sportsguru pool? I was going to have a Six Nations weekly predictions thing - is that similar - sportsguru sounds more "net-savvy"
posted on 30/1/12
http://www.sportguru.co.uk
Its a prediction site for all sports. Its really excellent but i suppose if its just me and you no point in starting a pool.However you are automatically joining the global pool anyway, but aside from that we can make a private pool.
Anyway We can just do it here and keep track like with the HC
Tho i prefer their scoring system to yours SARS :P
because u dont pick the exact score but instead the margin. For example, Ireland by 7 it dont matter if the score is 37 to 30... just the margin. Scoring system is below:
Win Point (WP)
The meat and bread of SportGuru. You'll score a Win Point if you correctly predict the winner of a game (or a draw, where applicable), irrespective of margin:
Margin Point (MP)
The Margin Point rewards accuracy in margin: if your margin prediction is within 5 points of the actual score margin, you'll pick up a MP worth 0.5 pts.
Bonus Point (BP)
The Bonus Point rewards the closest pick(s) in a given pool. It applies inside each pool only and does not count globally. This means whilst you could score the BP in one pool, you might not in another where someone else has made a better pick than you.
Grand Slam Point (GSP)
The Grand Slam Point rewards getting all the winners in a given round of the tournament correct. It does not necessarily apply to all rounds.
posted on 30/1/12
So Like this.
Ire v Wal - Ire by 10
Eng v Sco - Eng by 7
Fra v Ita - Fra by 25
Maximum points is 7.5 for this round and so on. ANd u carry ur points on to the next week.
posted on 30/1/12
OK
We'll do that, I'll start a match by match analysis and forecast tomorrow and we can put the predictions in there
posted on 30/1/12
Ok oh and my predictions above are not my real predictions! just an example... i want to see the match day 22's before i venture a guess