So, what’s going to happeen this weekend ?
Wales v Italy
There’s no way of getting around this or of phrasing it in a way that won’t totally pee off our Welsh friends so, here goes, Wales have been lucky so far.
I could just get my coat now, I know, but I’ll persist.
1st match up and Bradley Davies should have been sent off. Had he been I’m reasonably sure Ireland would have won. Then there was the last gasp ‘controversial’ penalty and card against Ferris. Again, with less than a minute to go, I’d have backed Ireland to hold out had it not been given.
Match 2 saw Hogg wrongly, in my opinion, being accused of knocking on before grounding. OK, Wales were well ahead at that point and even had it been given I’m pretty sure they’d have won handily. But still.
Match 3 saw Wales pushed all the way by England. Brilliant during the 10 minutes when Priestland was binned, even if it’s a lot easier to cope with a binned back than a binned forward, they were less than comfortable all round and I must admit to being very surprised that Strettle’s last second effort was ruled ‘no try’.
Still, there’s no arguing with three for three.
Italy are getting there. They were eventually outclassed by France but bear in mind they were only 6 points behind until Yachvili’s 52nd minute pen.
Next up they faced England at a snowy Stadio Olimpico. Again they were good value for 50 minutes, leading by 9pts before Hodgson’s charge-down try.
And finally Ireland at the Aviva. Hammered out of site, sure, but again the damage was done late on. 10-10 before Bowe’s 1st try right on half-time and still ‘only’ 13 behind before Bowe’s 2nd killed the game on the hour.
Wales may have been riding their luck a bit and Italy have been putting up a good fight but no matter how well they play their (no offense) Ulster Bank League standard fly halves will let them down and there’s only one way this is going. Italy will put up a fight as usual but Wales will romp home in the end.
Wales by 39!
Ireland v Scotland
Ireland have been the archetypal curate’s egg so far. Hot and cold against Wales, probably undeserving of victory but unlucky in defeat. Dreadful for long periods of the 1st half against Italy but running out the most comfortable of winners. Rampant in the 1st half at Stade de France before hanging on grimly and scoreless in the 2nd for a draw. O’Connell is a huge loss, Murray less so.
Scotland are so frustrating it’s unreal. If they’d had anyone who knew where the try-line was they’d have beaten England comfortably and run Wales a lot closer. Against France they really should have won again. Playing Hogg (even if he can be a touch headless-chickeny) gave them the cutting edge they’ve so long lacked and at after Jones restored their lead I really thought “there’ll be dancing in the streets of Selkirk tonight". But then they fell asleep and if you fall asleep against the French…
I would rate Ireland’s defense as the best I’ve seen so far this year and that added to Scotland’s difficulty (Hogg notwithstanding) in crossing the line and Tommy Bowe’s purplest of purple patches I’ll go for a home win.
Ireland by 12.
France v England
France, eh? You just never know what to make of them, do you? Capable of stuffing the All Black one week and losing to Romania the next (OK, slight exaggeration but you know where I’m coming from).
Interesting choices by PSA in replacing both Parra and Trinh-Duc. Clearly he was unhappy with Sunday’s performance against Ireland and while he was loyal to the players in situ for the World Cup he’s now decided to cut his cloth as he sees fit and has gone for a fly half who, if not the most spectacular of runners, can actually kick a ball and a scrum half who believes there are other people on this planet apart from himself (yes, I admit it, can’t stand Morgan Parra, could, never will). Comfortable against Italy without really impressing, patchy against Scotland but getting by. Average, to be polite, in the 1st half against Ireland before nearly grabbing it in the 2nd (isn’t that usually the other way round?) France now prepare for “Le Crunch" with the Grand Slam gone but the Championship still there for the taking.
England should have lost their first two games but won both. They probably should have beaten Wales but lost. They’ve been solid up front without really making big yards. They’ve been adventurous at the back without quite pulling it off. Farrell has been a revelation, Barritt a lot better than I’d expected. Foden has been a disappointment and has Ashton actually been on the pitch? This is a game that often flies in the face of expectation but France have been stung by failing to beat Ireland and with Beauxis at fly half I expect a lot of the game to be played in England’s half so I’ll go for another home win.
France by 9
Round 4
posted on 10/3/12
Mondieu. mate dont feed the trolls
posted on 10/3/12
He's a troll is he? I just thought he was an idiot.
posted on 10/3/12
LMAO
posted on 10/3/12
Stop ing and watch the rugby dammit!
posted on 10/3/12
32 - 14 to ireland.... Hell im on a roll!!! I do believe thats another bonus point for me ?¿?
posted on 10/3/12
Well, Wales struggled today. For a team with domination of almost all set play facets and owning the breakdown, it's criminal that it was touch and go until 55 minutes, and that a late try would flatter Wales.
Ireland to me have looked the team of the tournament to be honest. NZ supporters might be casting a nervous on some timely returns to form. Looks like POC getting injured might have been timely.
Ireland were clinical in putting away Italy last week, and taking out a comfortable win today against a newly threatening Scotland was made to look easy. Ireland in my eyes were desperately unlucky not to notch up the win against Wales thanks to some typical Wayne Barnes incompetence, and the Ireland v France game for me was the game of the tournament so far.
posted on 11/3/12
Well i got that wrong but i have never been so happy to be wrong. England deserved it and Wales can thank them. Tho that will probably go against the grain somewhat.
The game of the tournament for me, really enjoyed it! Lancaster should be commended and has done a great job to stamp out the off field silliness and bring on a very talented group of youngsters! For England and Ireland who started the competition slow but have been playing really well as it went on thought must now go to such things as might have been if we started better. But such is life.
On to next week and fair to say England and Ireland have emerged as the form teams now despite wales winning the competition (fair play to them) it looks like a cracking game is set up for twickers next week!
posted on 11/3/12
Woot. Got the England result right. I had a feeling England had too much for France based on what we've seen so far in the tournament.
I'm still going to stick by the prediction that France will show up for 80 minutes next week and blow away a nervous Wales.
France looked simply awesome for 5 minute spells today. And Wales are dining out on a series of lucky wins off the back of unconvincing performances.
They say "you learn more from a loss than a win", and England certainly seem to have learned quickly from the failure to shut out Wales.
Wales on the other hand have largely failed to live up to their billing in a disjointed performance against an Italy who were crucified by Ireland the week before.
England for back to back 6N champions in my mind - or close on points difference.
posted on 11/3/12
But GG, you base your picks on what you want to happen not what is likely. Will france show up next week? who knows, but a france team away from home with nothing to play for seem unlikely to do anything spectacular.
Now on to your prediction of taking the championship on points. If you put in the second half performance of today against ireland you will get taken apart. Tho its a big ask for ireland to win its a mammoth task for england to put enough points on the board to win any titles.
And thats where your pick falls apart. Because if france beat wales as you say, well wales wont go down without a fight so france wont be beating them by any big margins, and secondly england wont be beating ireland by any great margin if they even manage a win it will be by a very small margin.
The title is over, lets face it, now we have a really great game to look forward to next week, so lets enjoy that and show some levity in congratulation wales, because while yes they have stuttered a little, they are unbeaten and none of us can claim the same.
posted on 11/3/12
It's not what I want to happen at all - just likely enough to be rationalised.
France seem to stutter, but they invariably have one good 80 performance in them. When they fire, not many teams can live with them. They were on the cusp of clicking against England today.
Whilst Ireland have also played 3 in 3 weeks, of the two they are more likely to suffer fatigue as we saw in the RWC. They don't seem to (erm) pace themselves as France do.
I suspect England and France may get a roll on, and the point difference really isn't that large to be overcome.
Now, secondly I also think this year is a prime example of why 6N bonus points should be introduced. We have an almost dead final weekend.
Losing bonus points and a try bonus would change all of that.
Look let's face it - Wales are not really deserving to be staring down a potential grandslam with the series all but wrapped up. They've got two wins on the back of poor refereeing calls and this is where bonus points bring inherent fairness to a tournament by reflecting the nature of performances.
Ireland in particular deserve credit for their breathtaking displays against Scotland and Italy. The only team who have managed to convinvingly put the minnows to the sword.