Op Are you on Twitter?

I am, it should have a twitter feed on the home page but it is a new site and I'm not the best with coding

anyway, its c_l_d

Ok. Best of luck.

Thank you, it is very much appreciated!

Jesus, coming to get economic advise on JA606 for your university degree. Sure you should be in uni?

Read a few books over the last few years, and IMO defo worth reading Krugman's "Return of depression economics" and the "God's that failed" which goes into detail about the exotic derviates CDO,CDS, Rating agencies etc that lead to the latest collapse.

As far as the "tripple dip", "0.3%" negative growth is almost farcical in terms of the calculations involved and the size of the number calculated, particularly the damaging impact of it being labelled a dip. 0.3% on such a complex and moving target is quite ridiculous

There is an economist whose name escapes me who advocates growth being calculated to the nearest %. I would wholeheartedly agree with that.

comment by Cabescudo (U16433)
posted 1 minute ago
Jesus, coming to get economic advise on JA606 for your university degree. Sure you should be in uni?
__________

He obviously wants to do well and is wants to know what we think of it.

I paid 90p for a can of coke the other day.

Hope this helps.

Cabescudo (U16433),

I simply meant I need help via you guys visiting, reading and placing opinions on a new site I have made if that is your thing. Only a fool would pretend to know it all his self and disregard the knowledge of others (Cheers Toplad).

@Admin1,

Thanks I shall give those a read, I genuinely believe the media berating the Government with claims of 'negative growth' this 'triple-dip' that only elongates the recovery process because it influences the less well-read on that subject very seriously.

There's an interesting article in the economist (the new one or the one before) that basically explains that growth as we know it may be a thing of the past due to the lack of truly life-changing advances in tech.

I love my iPhone, but it can never change my life as for example a toilet would! Very interesting the contrast in top economists' views at this precarious time though.

Prior to 1999 the USA was running at a very significant current account deficit. It was only the tax receipts from the subsequent ".com" bubble that stopped the global downturn happening sooner than it did.

What is different about this downturn compared to say the downturn in the late 80s, is that this was the result of nearly 40 year credit bubble first highlighted by JK Galbraith in the 60s, finally bursting. The concept of turning to the status quo of 5-10 years ago is not going to happen. We are definitely in new territory.

The thing about life changing advances is that they are very difficult to predict. So in would definitely say the denial of the possibility any new technological "black swans" is probably naive.

I know it was a statement from the leader of the opposition, so was naturally bias, but apparently this is the worst period of growth for 100 years now; rich coming from the party that did none too much to avoid it but still, staggering fact.

The credit bubble, for me, is simply a market that should have never been allowed to exist. Mortgages require checks for a reason, we have credit ratings for a reason - so when they opened this sub-prime credit trading on Wallstreet - yes, it was going to show profit, yes it was going to show growth but the myopic nature of it was completely unforgiveable.

An every day debt collector would know that, let alone multi-billion pound banks and multi-trillion pound Nations!

The technology thing is obviously speculation, very bold speculation and 100% unpredictable, it just opens the pathway to so many potential theories as to where we can go, if anywhere, and how.

The credit bubble, for me, is simply a market that should have never been allowed to exist. Mortgages require checks for a reason, we have credit ratings for a reason
---------------------------------------------------

There is an irony in talking about "credit ratings". The rating agencies played a huge part in the down-turn by rating junk "BB, C" based derivatives as AAA. FYI A few years ago I help creation intra bank trading platforms for that stuff. Within three hours of putting it live £800million had been traded through the system

I am from the Ayn Rand school of markets and regulation. Regulatory agencies or rating agencies only ever give the illusion of protection and should not be revered or trusted.

That's very interesting and shall be taken on board, thank you!

You see, for me, that would raise the whole 'regulatory body' argument as, after disclosing that information, I can now see how those bodies would be culpable as much as the teller's that approved such credit, even more culpable.

Alas, regulation is an entity I have never really seen exceed expectations and only minimally meet them. It is needed, clearly, but in a properly structured environment.

The sad thing is, these trigger-happy lenders now won't lend to anyone who would have been AAA credit worthy, as you said, just a few years back which is only worsening the situation.

And when you think of it all like that, you can very much see why it is taking such a prolonged period to recover compared with history - because it isn't history at all.

Yeah you will definitely love this book as it goes into the technical detail of turning junk in AAA

http://www.amazon.co.uk/The-Gods-That-Failed-Markets/dp/1847920306

You will love this book too albeit it is a heavy read.
http://www.amazon.com/Atlas-Shrugged-Ayn-Rand/dp/0451191145

Alan Greenspan was in her inner group of socialites, but you don't think about state market involvement in the same way again.

As well as reading Taleb's "The black swan" also read "The collapse of chaos" which goes into detail about chaotic and dynamic systems as well as the impact of trying to adjust them. Probably one of my favourite books.
http://www.amazon.co.uk/Collapse-Chaos-Discovering-Simplicity-Complex/dp/0140291253

I probably have another dozen books i would also recommend but those are definitely gems.

Thank you very much, I shall have a look at those!

Recently I've been reading The Big Short which is a little novelistic but a very good read nonetheless.

The book I've been spending the most time with at the moment is my economics class book which, ironically, is written by the lecturer himself...

I can't recommend reading "off piste" as it will give you some kudos when it comes to written exams when you can name drop various economists and the books in which they state their views.

It is also worth reading about LTC(Long Term Capital) which was in investment fund run by two Nobel Prize winning economists that blew up spectacularly.

I can't recommend reading "off piste" *enough

It's a bit naive (within the political science or economic disciplines) to blame any one individual, any particular national government or the events of any particular decade for any economic issues currently being experienced.

As for explanations, I would have thought the writings of Marx and Machiavelli are more than sufficient to outline what and why anything at any time has happened. And why nothing will be done to stop it continuing.

Freddos cost 65p nowadays. How is that sustainable Ffs.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/economics/9897571/Britain-never-had-a-double-dip-recession-says-top-economist-Simon-Ward.html