We had so much luck with double letter players (Hamann, Riise, Gerrard, Torres, Carra, Hyypia, Finnan) that we decided to double down and buy Carroll because he had 2 sets.
Not the wisest transfer strategy.
comment by itsonlyagame - let's go bowling! (U6426)
posted 3 minutes ago
comment by Don Draper's dandruff (U20155)
posted 12 minutes ago
coutinho, azpilacueta, zabaleta, kompany, ramsay, eriksen, koscielny and so on and so on.
all cost less than £12m, most of them bought by clubs who change their managers regularly, and all of them contributing to their clubs in a way that none of united's recent buys have done.
or, to put it another way, arsenal bought the ox, liverpool bought sterling, united bought zaha.
----------------------------------------------------------------------
Most of those examples are null and void, either because they belong to one of the examples noted as exceptions (Ramsey, Kos), weren't that young when they joined (Zaba 24, Kompany 23), weren't "unearthed gems" in the sense that they'd been on a lot of people's radars and were already at relatively illustrious clubs (Eriksen, Azpi,Coutinho), and so on and so on.
And you ought to consider too that they've all largely been part of a spray gun policy of signing players. How many true 'young prospects' City, Liverpool, Spurs, Chelsea & co signed in recent years actually made it, and how many managed to do so after a couple of years slowly maturing rather than hitting the ground running?
The vast majority are long lost and forgotten.
----------------------------------------------------------------------
so any players that don't fit your theory don't count? i don't understand what age has to do with it - though 23 is relatively young for a centre back - nor do i get the point about unearthed gems...i thought the argument was about buying good players cheaply, not discovering extraordinary talents at the age of 14.
and which english clubs had been linked with coutinho? or azpilacueta?
i agree that most clubs' approaches these days seems to be throw enough transfer sh@t at a wall and see how much of it sticks, but i will still maintain that there is no big club in europe with a worse transfer record over the last 5-7 years than united (in terms of buying the wrong players, overpaying for their buys, and underselling players they don't want).
note also that the 5-7 years means that not all the blame can be laid at woodward's/LVG's door, though neither has covered himself in too much glory.
comment by The Kaiser's Trainers (U5676)
posted 1 minute ago
We had so much luck with double letter players (Hamann, Riise, Gerrard, Torres, Carra, Hyypia, Finnan) that we decided to double down and buy Carroll because he had 2 sets.
Not the wisest transfer strategy.
----------------------------------------------------------------------
lee cattermole and richard dunne it is then.
itsonlyagame - let's go bowling! (U6426)
Understand what you're saying on this, but I'm with Don Draper.
There are excellent players out there if you're looking hard enough, without needing to spend a fortune.
Even Spurs were lucky and they had him.
If Soldado had been a success, Kane would have left the club.
I don't think luck comes into it as much as some are saying. Sure, you never know how players deal with ppressure, suit a system and settle in a new country - but those are things a good scout will be able to assess, even if not predict 100%.
If Soldado had been a success, Kane would have left the club.
this is the kind of luck I'm talking about
Had Spurs not had an injury crisis, Bale would have been sold as a failed fullback for peanuts.
I see transfers in the middle to low end of the market as the same as picking stocks personally. The best analysts in the world get it wrong a lot and even when they get it right, it can often be for the wrong reasons.
But that's not really luck in finding the player in the first place.
That's just poor judgement of players you do have, and I think also a bias towards the 'glamour' option by clubs who are looking to please their fans.
comment by The Kaiser's Trainers (U5676)
posted 7 minutes ago
If Soldado had been a success, Kane would have left the club.
this is the kind of luck I'm talking about
Had Spurs not had an injury crisis, Bale would have been sold as a failed fullback for peanuts.
I see transfers in the middle to low end of the market as the same as picking stocks personally. The best analysts in the world get it wrong a lot and even when they get it right, it can often be for the wrong reasons.
----------------------------------------------------------------------
for sure i have made an entire career in finance being right for the wrong reasons.
best policy is to just act modest like you meant it but don't want to brag about it
so any players that don't fit your theory don't count? i don't understand what age has to do with it - though 23 is relatively young for a centre back - nor do i get the point about unearthed gems...
---
I'm not sure we disagree, it seems we were just argiung different points, because
a) the original comment I posted (and which I thought you answered to) was precisely in reply to Winston's which spoke about unearthing gems (which TKT touched upon too), and
b) it was about the changes that have made it much harder for managers to afford upcoming youngsters the time they frequently need to bed in.
I'm not arguing that there aren't quality players to be found for bargain prices, but that it's increasingly difficult for a youngster to break through at a big club because the way the big clubs are run makes it a lot less likely for them to get a long enough spell in the side for them to prove themselves. The spraygun policy mentioned means that of course some young talent or other is eventually going to stick, but it's an increasingly smaller portion of the players signed.
As for the two players you mentioned, of course I'd agree they were both bargain buys, but the fact that they weren't household names for your average PL fan or pundit doesn't imply they were off the radar for the big clubs. Quite the opposite. They'd already moved from smaller clubs to Inter and Marseille.
Even when he was still at Osasuna, Azpi had been linked to Spain's biggest clubs and was on Del Bosque's 30-man shortlist for the 2010 World Cup. A quick custom search from those days on Google throws up reports of interest from R. Madrid, as well as Arsenal and City.
Chelsea were shrewd, because he had indeed fallen off the radar after doing his ACL.
As for Coutinho, he was a full Brazil international from a very early age and originally signed on for Inter when Mourinho managed them. Before Liverpool snapped him up, he'd impressed on loan at Espanyol but for some reason hadn't managed to make an impression at Inter.
Again, a shrewd move and great buy for Liverpool, but hardly for an unknown player and, looking at the sheer number of players they've signed in recent seasons, clearly more a case of good fortune than careful planning and nuturing.
Wenger is known as the undisputed king of unearthing gems. For giggles I looked back at his first couple of seasons signings and it was 80% players I'd never heard of then or ever again.
I want to hire whoever his Public Relations guy was back then.
comment by Winston (U16525)
posted 15 minutes ago
itsonlyagame - let's go bowling! (U6426)
I don't think luck comes into it as much as some are saying. Sure, you never know how players deal with ppressure, suit a system and settle in a new country - but those are things a good scout will be able to assess, even if not predict 100%.
----------------------------------------------------------------------
I wasn't arguing it was luck, that was TKT.
You could however infer it from comments about the spraygun approach. More than sheer luck, I'd say it's just an extremely inefficient policy.
itsonlyagame - let's go bowling! (U6426)
I know... that's why I said 'as some are saying' i.e. not you!
comment by itsonlyagame - let's go bowling! (U6426)
posted 41 seconds ago
comment by Winston (U16525)
posted 15 minutes ago
itsonlyagame - let's go bowling! (U6426)
I don't think luck comes into it as much as some are saying. Sure, you never know how players deal with ppressure, suit a system and settle in a new country - but those are things a good scout will be able to assess, even if not predict 100%.
----------------------------------------------------------------------
I wasn't arguing it was luck, that was TKT.
You could however infer it from comments about the spraygun approach. More than sheer luck, I'd say it's just an extremely inefficient policy.
----------------------------------------------------------------------
i guess one issue is that in an internet/prozone age there are hardly any undearthed gems anywhere....when wenger first started it may have been a question of finding players that others had simply not heard of. now it is more a question of sifting through the 1000s of players on everyone's radars and working out which ones are the hazards and which the lamelas.
comment by Winston (U16525)
posted 22 minutes ago
itsonlyagame - let's go bowling! (U6426)
I know... that's why I said 'as some are saying' i.e. not you!
----------------------------------------------------------------------
Right you are. Misread you.
DDD, clubs like Porto, Benfica or Atlético seem to have done pretty well in recent years. I just think the conditions at those clubs are more favourable for bringing in a youngster and affording him the opportunities needed for his game to flourish.
Let me illustrate with an example:
I doubt none of United, Chelsea, Madrid, Barça etc. were unaware of a 19-year-old Argentine called Aguero, but which one of them would've put him straight in as their starting striker (and ahead of whom?) and stuck with him for two seasons until he bore fruit.
Atlético splashed about 15M quid on him, making him the most expensive ever junior in Argentine football. Not a fee to be sniffed at, but in the grand scheme it's small change for United, Chelsea, Barça or Madrid. The kind they might have paid for a guy sitting on the bench.
They might have given him the odd cup game, but barring a major injury crisis to other players, if he'd failed to impress the next step would likely have been a loan deal out to a club he might not even be suited to.
Someone like the Atlético of those days simply couldn't afford NOT to provide the chances to a player who'd cost that much.
Kun started all 38 games in his first season at Atletico and found the back of the net 6 times.
How many games would he have got for one of the other clubs, let alone seen a second season for them?
itsonly - you're right, and one other factor that works against english clubs is our very restrictive visa system, where it becomes very difficult to buy non-EU players who are not established internationals. and presumably with greg dyke's silly new proposals it will only get harder.
@comment by itsonlyagame
good post
Sign in if you want to comment
Harry Kane to United.
Page 3 of 3
posted on 15/5/15
We had so much luck with double letter players (Hamann, Riise, Gerrard, Torres, Carra, Hyypia, Finnan) that we decided to double down and buy Carroll because he had 2 sets.
Not the wisest transfer strategy.
posted on 15/5/15
comment by itsonlyagame - let's go bowling! (U6426)
posted 3 minutes ago
comment by Don Draper's dandruff (U20155)
posted 12 minutes ago
coutinho, azpilacueta, zabaleta, kompany, ramsay, eriksen, koscielny and so on and so on.
all cost less than £12m, most of them bought by clubs who change their managers regularly, and all of them contributing to their clubs in a way that none of united's recent buys have done.
or, to put it another way, arsenal bought the ox, liverpool bought sterling, united bought zaha.
----------------------------------------------------------------------
Most of those examples are null and void, either because they belong to one of the examples noted as exceptions (Ramsey, Kos), weren't that young when they joined (Zaba 24, Kompany 23), weren't "unearthed gems" in the sense that they'd been on a lot of people's radars and were already at relatively illustrious clubs (Eriksen, Azpi,Coutinho), and so on and so on.
And you ought to consider too that they've all largely been part of a spray gun policy of signing players. How many true 'young prospects' City, Liverpool, Spurs, Chelsea & co signed in recent years actually made it, and how many managed to do so after a couple of years slowly maturing rather than hitting the ground running?
The vast majority are long lost and forgotten.
----------------------------------------------------------------------
so any players that don't fit your theory don't count? i don't understand what age has to do with it - though 23 is relatively young for a centre back - nor do i get the point about unearthed gems...i thought the argument was about buying good players cheaply, not discovering extraordinary talents at the age of 14.
and which english clubs had been linked with coutinho? or azpilacueta?
i agree that most clubs' approaches these days seems to be throw enough transfer sh@t at a wall and see how much of it sticks, but i will still maintain that there is no big club in europe with a worse transfer record over the last 5-7 years than united (in terms of buying the wrong players, overpaying for their buys, and underselling players they don't want).
note also that the 5-7 years means that not all the blame can be laid at woodward's/LVG's door, though neither has covered himself in too much glory.
posted on 15/5/15
comment by The Kaiser's Trainers (U5676)
posted 1 minute ago
We had so much luck with double letter players (Hamann, Riise, Gerrard, Torres, Carra, Hyypia, Finnan) that we decided to double down and buy Carroll because he had 2 sets.
Not the wisest transfer strategy.
----------------------------------------------------------------------
lee cattermole and richard dunne it is then.
posted on 15/5/15
itsonlyagame - let's go bowling! (U6426)
Understand what you're saying on this, but I'm with Don Draper.
There are excellent players out there if you're looking hard enough, without needing to spend a fortune.
Even Spurs were lucky and they had him.
If Soldado had been a success, Kane would have left the club.
I don't think luck comes into it as much as some are saying. Sure, you never know how players deal with ppressure, suit a system and settle in a new country - but those are things a good scout will be able to assess, even if not predict 100%.
posted on 15/5/15
If Soldado had been a success, Kane would have left the club.
this is the kind of luck I'm talking about
Had Spurs not had an injury crisis, Bale would have been sold as a failed fullback for peanuts.
I see transfers in the middle to low end of the market as the same as picking stocks personally. The best analysts in the world get it wrong a lot and even when they get it right, it can often be for the wrong reasons.
posted on 15/5/15
But that's not really luck in finding the player in the first place.
That's just poor judgement of players you do have, and I think also a bias towards the 'glamour' option by clubs who are looking to please their fans.
posted on 15/5/15
comment by The Kaiser's Trainers (U5676)
posted 7 minutes ago
If Soldado had been a success, Kane would have left the club.
this is the kind of luck I'm talking about
Had Spurs not had an injury crisis, Bale would have been sold as a failed fullback for peanuts.
I see transfers in the middle to low end of the market as the same as picking stocks personally. The best analysts in the world get it wrong a lot and even when they get it right, it can often be for the wrong reasons.
----------------------------------------------------------------------
for sure i have made an entire career in finance being right for the wrong reasons.
posted on 15/5/15
best policy is to just act modest like you meant it but don't want to brag about it
posted on 15/5/15
so any players that don't fit your theory don't count? i don't understand what age has to do with it - though 23 is relatively young for a centre back - nor do i get the point about unearthed gems...
---
I'm not sure we disagree, it seems we were just argiung different points, because
a) the original comment I posted (and which I thought you answered to) was precisely in reply to Winston's which spoke about unearthing gems (which TKT touched upon too), and
b) it was about the changes that have made it much harder for managers to afford upcoming youngsters the time they frequently need to bed in.
I'm not arguing that there aren't quality players to be found for bargain prices, but that it's increasingly difficult for a youngster to break through at a big club because the way the big clubs are run makes it a lot less likely for them to get a long enough spell in the side for them to prove themselves. The spraygun policy mentioned means that of course some young talent or other is eventually going to stick, but it's an increasingly smaller portion of the players signed.
As for the two players you mentioned, of course I'd agree they were both bargain buys, but the fact that they weren't household names for your average PL fan or pundit doesn't imply they were off the radar for the big clubs. Quite the opposite. They'd already moved from smaller clubs to Inter and Marseille.
Even when he was still at Osasuna, Azpi had been linked to Spain's biggest clubs and was on Del Bosque's 30-man shortlist for the 2010 World Cup. A quick custom search from those days on Google throws up reports of interest from R. Madrid, as well as Arsenal and City.
Chelsea were shrewd, because he had indeed fallen off the radar after doing his ACL.
As for Coutinho, he was a full Brazil international from a very early age and originally signed on for Inter when Mourinho managed them. Before Liverpool snapped him up, he'd impressed on loan at Espanyol but for some reason hadn't managed to make an impression at Inter.
Again, a shrewd move and great buy for Liverpool, but hardly for an unknown player and, looking at the sheer number of players they've signed in recent seasons, clearly more a case of good fortune than careful planning and nuturing.
posted on 15/5/15
Wenger is known as the undisputed king of unearthing gems. For giggles I looked back at his first couple of seasons signings and it was 80% players I'd never heard of then or ever again.
I want to hire whoever his Public Relations guy was back then.
posted on 15/5/15
comment by Winston (U16525)
posted 15 minutes ago
itsonlyagame - let's go bowling! (U6426)
I don't think luck comes into it as much as some are saying. Sure, you never know how players deal with ppressure, suit a system and settle in a new country - but those are things a good scout will be able to assess, even if not predict 100%.
----------------------------------------------------------------------
I wasn't arguing it was luck, that was TKT.
You could however infer it from comments about the spraygun approach. More than sheer luck, I'd say it's just an extremely inefficient policy.
posted on 15/5/15
itsonlyagame - let's go bowling! (U6426)
I know... that's why I said 'as some are saying' i.e. not you!
posted on 15/5/15
comment by itsonlyagame - let's go bowling! (U6426)
posted 41 seconds ago
comment by Winston (U16525)
posted 15 minutes ago
itsonlyagame - let's go bowling! (U6426)
I don't think luck comes into it as much as some are saying. Sure, you never know how players deal with ppressure, suit a system and settle in a new country - but those are things a good scout will be able to assess, even if not predict 100%.
----------------------------------------------------------------------
I wasn't arguing it was luck, that was TKT.
You could however infer it from comments about the spraygun approach. More than sheer luck, I'd say it's just an extremely inefficient policy.
----------------------------------------------------------------------
i guess one issue is that in an internet/prozone age there are hardly any undearthed gems anywhere....when wenger first started it may have been a question of finding players that others had simply not heard of. now it is more a question of sifting through the 1000s of players on everyone's radars and working out which ones are the hazards and which the lamelas.
posted on 15/5/15
comment by Winston (U16525)
posted 22 minutes ago
itsonlyagame - let's go bowling! (U6426)
I know... that's why I said 'as some are saying' i.e. not you!
----------------------------------------------------------------------
Right you are. Misread you.
DDD, clubs like Porto, Benfica or Atlético seem to have done pretty well in recent years. I just think the conditions at those clubs are more favourable for bringing in a youngster and affording him the opportunities needed for his game to flourish.
Let me illustrate with an example:
I doubt none of United, Chelsea, Madrid, Barça etc. were unaware of a 19-year-old Argentine called Aguero, but which one of them would've put him straight in as their starting striker (and ahead of whom?) and stuck with him for two seasons until he bore fruit.
Atlético splashed about 15M quid on him, making him the most expensive ever junior in Argentine football. Not a fee to be sniffed at, but in the grand scheme it's small change for United, Chelsea, Barça or Madrid. The kind they might have paid for a guy sitting on the bench.
They might have given him the odd cup game, but barring a major injury crisis to other players, if he'd failed to impress the next step would likely have been a loan deal out to a club he might not even be suited to.
Someone like the Atlético of those days simply couldn't afford NOT to provide the chances to a player who'd cost that much.
Kun started all 38 games in his first season at Atletico and found the back of the net 6 times.
How many games would he have got for one of the other clubs, let alone seen a second season for them?
posted on 15/5/15
itsonly - you're right, and one other factor that works against english clubs is our very restrictive visa system, where it becomes very difficult to buy non-EU players who are not established internationals. and presumably with greg dyke's silly new proposals it will only get harder.
posted on 15/5/15
@comment by itsonlyagame
good post
Page 3 of 3