comment by Tamwolf (U17286)
posted 6 minutes ago
I imagine it will be mayhem from Monday onwards. I reckon we'll be in restrictions again in a few months time when it gets out of control.
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Despite it still being law here to wear a mask for indoor gatherings, about 1 out of 3 weren't when I was in my local supermarket yesterday.

Comment deleted by Site Moderator

comment by The Crystal Skull from thon Indiana Jones Disaster (U21917)
posted 1 hour, 20 minutes ago
https://twitter.com/doctor_oxford/status/1415956356113342466

but the link between hospitalisation has been broken and everything will return to normal on the 19th

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Less than 50% of people in Birmingham have been double-jabbed.

Most of those who have been will have had AZ, which may prevent hospitalisation in something like 90-92% of Delta cases after two doses.

A lot of evidence now that Delta is infecting people who have contracted and recovered from other strains of COVID-19 previously too.

So there’s still a huge chunk of the population vulnerable to hospitalisation or worse from Delta.

comment by Just Shoot - Southgate FFS (U10408)
posted 35 minutes ago
comment by Sat Nav (U18243)
posted 30 minutes ago
Patients in hospital
Latest available
3,786Value: 3786 — Abstract information: Number of COVID-19 patients currently in hospital, reported on Wednesday, 14 July 2021.
Click for additional details.
Patients on ventilation
Latest available
545Value

Don’t know if anyone has January comparable numbers? BMCL?

I have no reference on whether 3800 is high or low.
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Something seems amiss. According to the link below there are 163,000 hospital beds in the UK.

I'm sure I'm missing something, but 'only' 3800 covid patients in hospital...

https://www.statista.com/statistics/473264/number-of-hospital-beds-in-the-united-kingdom-uk/
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https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/healthcare

comment by Sat Nav (U18243)
posted 11 minutes ago
comment by Just Shoot - Southgate FFS (U10408)
posted 35 minutes ago
comment by Sat Nav (U18243)
posted 30 minutes ago
Patients in hospital
Latest available
3,786Value: 3786 — Abstract information: Number of COVID-19 patients currently in hospital, reported on Wednesday, 14 July 2021.
Click for additional details.
Patients on ventilation
Latest available
545Value

Don’t know if anyone has January comparable numbers? BMCL?

I have no reference on whether 3800 is high or low.
----------------------------------------------------------------------
Something seems amiss. According to the link below there are 163,000 hospital beds in the UK.

I'm sure I'm missing something, but 'only' 3800 covid patients in hospital...

https://www.statista.com/statistics/473264/number-of-hospital-beds-in-the-united-kingdom-uk/
----------------------------------------------------------------------
https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/healthcare


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So the peak was over 4000 daily and now we’re at 580 odd

comment by Just Shoot - Southgate FFS (U10408)
posted 51 minutes ago
comment by Sat Nav (U18243)
posted 30 minutes ago
Patients in hospital
Latest available
3,786Value: 3786 — Abstract information: Number of COVID-19 patients currently in hospital, reported on Wednesday, 14 July 2021.
Click for additional details.
Patients on ventilation
Latest available
545Value

Don’t know if anyone has January comparable numbers? BMCL?

I have no reference on whether 3800 is high or low.
----------------------------------------------------------------------
Something seems amiss. According to the link below there are 163,000 hospital beds in the UK.

I'm sure I'm missing something, but 'only' 3800 covid patients in hospital...

https://www.statista.com/statistics/473264/number-of-hospital-beds-in-the-united-kingdom-uk/
----------------------------------------------------------------------
Not all hospital beds are suitable for COVID-19 patients. You can’t put them on maternity, surgical recovery, oncology, paediatrics, some inmed wards, etc.

ICU bed availability and pathways (or ‘pipelines’ )are more instructive.

We were getting 3000-4000 daily hospitalisations for a sustained period previously.

Comment deleted by Site Moderator

comment by Just Shoot - Southgate FFS (U10408)
posted 4 minutes ago
comment by rosso - time to #takefootballback (U17054)
posted 14 minutes ago
comment by Just Shoot - Southgate FFS (U10408)
posted 51 minutes ago
comment by Sat Nav (U18243)
posted 30 minutes ago
Patients in hospital
Latest available
3,786Value: 3786 — Abstract information: Number of COVID-19 patients currently in hospital, reported on Wednesday, 14 July 2021.
Click for additional details.
Patients on ventilation
Latest available
545Value

Don’t know if anyone has January comparable numbers? BMCL?

I have no reference on whether 3800 is high or low.
----------------------------------------------------------------------
Something seems amiss. According to the link below there are 163,000 hospital beds in the UK.

I'm sure I'm missing something, but 'only' 3800 covid patients in hospital...

https://www.statista.com/statistics/473264/number-of-hospital-beds-in-the-united-kingdom-uk/
----------------------------------------------------------------------
Not all hospital beds are suitable for COVID-19 patients. You can’t put them on maternity, surgical recovery, oncology, paediatrics, some inmed wards, etc.

ICU bed availability and pathways (or ‘pipelines’ )are more instructive.
----------------------------------------------------------------------
Sure. Without a breakdown of what beds can be used for the stats aren't useful.
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They’ll be looking very carefully at the trends, at the number of hospitalisations translating to a need for ICU care, at how long current Delta patients are needing to stay in ICU for, at what’s going on with staffing levels with holidays and self-isolation (I think this is going to have a big impact this summer), and at hotspots and where ICU patients can be directed/shifted to.

I’m sure the NHS and DoH have learned a lot about how to best deal with these kind of spikes the last fifteen months.

Philip Lee, GP and former Bracknell MP, on Sky News now, going mental.

“Everyone in government needs to grow up.”

“Everything the government has done in the last fifteen months has made this pandemic worse.”

“I question whether Chris Whitty should be associating himself with any of this at all. I could not be standing there and accepting this policy [of opening up completely].”

“We are seeing, including in this surgery, many, many more cases of Long COVID.”

“Everybody should be wearing a mask indoors. Everybody should be wearing a mask on public transport.”

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comment by Just Shoot - Southgate FFS (U10408)
posted 8 minutes ago
*Let's watch this be twisted to mean something else. 😂

Is Covid serious or not?

Yes! People are dying and getting long term health issues!

But things are opening and people are travelling and going to sporting events? Surely if it's serious, that wouldn't be happening?

Shut up and do as we say, not as we do.

Really? I don't know what the fook is going on.
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Join the club, pal

Gb news in the crap

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jRQ8bneI7vs

Thought gb news was about free speech and all that....

comment by Tamwolf (U17286)
posted 1 hour, 43 minutes ago
Chris Whitty has already been speaking out about his and the dangers of exponential growth:

He said "I don't think we should underestimate the fact that we could get into trouble again surprisingly fast.

"I think saying the numbers in hospital are low now, that does not mean the numbers will be low in hospital in five, six, seven, eight weeks' time.

"They could actually be really quite serious."

He added: "We've still got 2,000 people in hospital and that number is increasing. If we double from 2,000 to 4,000 from 4,000 to 8,000, 8,000 and so on it doesn't take many doubling times until you're in very, very large numbers indeed."

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-57858864
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More on the UK’s ’Freedom Day’…

Prof José Martin-Moreno of the University of Valencia, a senior adviser to the World Health Organization (WHO):

“We cannot understand why this is happening in spite of the scientific knowledge that you have.”

Michael Baker, professor of public health at the University of Otago and a member of the New Zealand ministry of health’s Covid-19 technical advisory group:

“In New Zealand we have always looked to the UK for leadership when it comes to scientific expertise, which is why it’s so remarkable that it is not following even basic public health principles.”

Prof Christina Pagel, the director of University College London’s clinical operational research unit:

“Because of our position as a global travel hub, any variant that becomes dominant in the UK will likely spread to the rest of the globe. The UK policy doesn’t just affect us. It affects everybody and everybody has a stake in what we do.”

Dr Deepti Gurdasani, clinical epidemiologist and senior lecturer at Queen Mary University of London:

“The world is watching the current avoidable crisis unfold in the UK. Let’s be under no illusions – we are in a country where our government is taking steps to maximally expose our young to a virus that causes chronic illness in many.”

I've been trying to get my Covid data science mates to take a bet on hospitalisations. But they won't touch it.

I'm a lone voice in thinking hospitalisations will be below 750 by August 19th.
ONS has antibody detection at 90 percent. I think based on little more than a hunch and the ONS stats that we are pretty much at saturation and that opening up on 19th will have no marked difference based on how much mixing is currently happening.

If I'm wrong I'll be well wrong.

Comment deleted by Site Moderator

Comment deleted by Site Moderator

comment by Admin1 (U1)
posted 2 minutes ago
I've been trying to get my Covid data science mates to take a bet on hospitalisations. But they won't touch it.

I'm a lone voice in thinking hospitalisations will be below 750 by August 19th.
ONS has antibody detection at 90 percent. I think based on little more than a hunch and the ONS stats that we are pretty much at saturation and that opening up on 19th will have no marked difference based on how much mixing is currently happening.

If I'm wrong I'll be well wrong.
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I am very wary of those ONS figures.

Roughly 9% of people who have been infected will not have detectable antibodies (New England JM) so that would suggest just about everyone in the country has been infected, which would seem unlikely, even at this point.

That also wouldn’t allow an explanation of the (quickly) escalating symptomatic case numbers, and to an extent hospitalisations, unless the antibodies weren’t really preventing the development of recognisable/serious symptoms.

That wouldn’t actually surprise me greatly, because we’ve seen people reinfected with the same strain (let alone different variants) only a few months after first contracting the virus, and reinfection hospitalisations and deaths.

Then there are the emergent strains:

One recent study found that 12 months after infection, 88% of people still had antibodies that could block infection of cultured cells with by the original coronavirus variant – but fewer than 50% had antibodies that could block the delta variant.

https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-021-03777-9

TL;DR

Protection attained via antibody development through infection = lottery in terms of depth and breadth of protection

comment by Admin1 (U1)
posted 49 minutes ago
I've been trying to get my Covid data science mates to take a bet on hospitalisations. But they won't touch it.

I'm a lone voice in thinking hospitalisations will be below 750 by August 19th.
ONS has antibody detection at 90 percent. I think based on little more than a hunch and the ONS stats that we are pretty much at saturation and that opening up on 19th will have no marked difference based on how much mixing is currently happening.

If I'm wrong I'll be well wrong.
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That’s pretty much my feelings on it and yes we may be wrong but we opened up a lot quite a while ago whereby we must be getting a lot of cases already.

Let’s hope we’re right.

<50,000 cases today

comment by Just Shoot - Southgate FFS (U10408)
posted 2 hours, 39 minutes ago
*Let's watch this be twisted to mean something else. 😂

Is Covid serious or not?

Yes! People are dying and getting long term health issues!

But things are opening and people are travelling and going to sporting events? Surely if it's serious, that wouldn't be happening?

Shut up and do as we say, not as we do.

Really? I don't know what the fook is going on.
----------------------------------------------------------------------
Am going to put the last line of your post on ma headstone.

Hope you are well, pal.😊