https://www.livescience.com/new-coronavirus-compare-with-flu.html
Fact is very little is known about how far this virus has already spread and how many actually show serious symptoms. When they begin testing after the fact to see how many have had the virus then we could see things change quickly. As i understand it that test will be easier to conduct than the real time test.
Don't they suspect the number is 10-15 times higher? That would indicate a million folks as having/had the virus, and then the death rate appears far more comfortable.
comment by Cinciwolf----JA606 NFL Fantasy Champion 2019----No Emotional Attachments....five long years (U11551)
posted 2 minutes ago
Fact is very little is known about how far this virus has already spread and how many actually show serious symptoms. When they begin testing after the fact to see how many have had the virus then we could see things change quickly. As i understand it that test will be easier to conduct than the real time test.
Don't they suspect the number is 10-15 times higher? That would indicate a million folks as having/had the virus, and then the death rate appears far more comfortable.
----------------------------------------------------------------------
As you say, nobody really knows how many have contracted it, due to the disease being such a recent occurrence and the ability to test not being at the level required at the minute. It's a reasonable assumption that the number infected is much much higher than that confirmed though, that's for sure. It's 4 times more infectious than regular flu (I think) which is something that can be relatively accurately measured, I'd imagine, and there is no vaccination to fight it at this time though. So that would probably allow for rough calculations to be made of how many people are likely to have been infected. A calculation to be made by people more intelligent than me 😂
Comment deleted by Site Moderator
I love it when someone puts up a link from an eminent scientist or body in here and JA members dismiss it as a load of bollix and insult the person giving that viewpoint for discussion.
Experts eh?
We're not being mugged off.
This guy is saying that because so few have been tested the death rate skewed as being very high.
That these deaths are recorded as C19 death whereas when flu kills someone it is the underlying health issues that is given as the cause, again skewing the figures.
Therefore he questions whether this is being blown out of proportion.
I think he misses the point . While flu is a killer too and sees of 1000s every year, it does not have such potential to overwhelm the NHS.
If we just let this spread without control then sure enough the death rate would be still in the low single digit % but this would be from a huge number of people. If this spread to 40% of the country (24m) and 2% died that's 480000 deaths. 40% of the country don't get flu every year.
So the point being missed is that yes, the death rate may be much lower than the headline rate but due to the ease and speed of spread, huge numbers could contract the disease and thus even with a very low death rate, large numbers of people would die.
If 40% of the country contracted it, a death rate of 0.1% = 24,000. Thats about the expected target.
But flu has a DR of about 0.5% so that figure would be closer to 120,000.
The other issue is the ability to treat people. In Italy, overwhelmed health services meant people died without being treated in their 100s and 1000s. Some could have been saved
That is why it is important to limit the spread and the speed of the spread. The less people who get it, the less will die. It's as simple as that.
Yes, flattening the curve
comment by Gingernuts (U2992)
posted 3 hours, 57 minutes ago
I love it when someone puts up a link from an eminent scientist or body in here and JA members dismiss it as a load of bollix and insult the person giving that viewpoint for discussion.
Experts eh?
----------------------------------------------------------------------
8 days later and his numbers already match up...
I think the data on this virus, our actions and the economics involved will be extraordinary.
This virus will help us prepare for the next big pandemic no matter what..
comment by Stay Safe (U1250)
posted 5 hours, 16 minutes ago
comment by Gingernuts (U2992)
posted 3 hours, 57 minutes ago
I love it when someone puts up a link from an eminent scientist or body in here and JA members dismiss it as a load of bollix and insult the person giving that viewpoint for discussion.
Experts eh?
----------------------------------------------------------------------
8 days later and his numbers already match up...
----------------------------------------------------------------------
I’m not sure what your point is
comment by Gingernuts (U2992)
posted 25 minutes ago
comment by Stay Safe (U1250)
posted 5 hours, 16 minutes ago
comment by Gingernuts (U2992)
posted 3 hours, 57 minutes ago
I love it when someone puts up a link from an eminent scientist or body in here and JA members dismiss it as a load of bollix and insult the person giving that viewpoint for discussion.
Experts eh?
----------------------------------------------------------------------
8 days later and his numbers already match up...
----------------------------------------------------------------------
I’m not sure what your point is
----------------------------------------------------------------------
Yeah, I was confused his response to your point too
👍🏼
Sign in if you want to comment
WE’RE ALL BEING MUGGED OFF AS PER USUAL...
Page 2 of 2
posted on 6/4/20
https://www.livescience.com/new-coronavirus-compare-with-flu.html
posted on 6/4/20
Fact is very little is known about how far this virus has already spread and how many actually show serious symptoms. When they begin testing after the fact to see how many have had the virus then we could see things change quickly. As i understand it that test will be easier to conduct than the real time test.
Don't they suspect the number is 10-15 times higher? That would indicate a million folks as having/had the virus, and then the death rate appears far more comfortable.
posted on 6/4/20
comment by Cinciwolf----JA606 NFL Fantasy Champion 2019----No Emotional Attachments....five long years (U11551)
posted 2 minutes ago
Fact is very little is known about how far this virus has already spread and how many actually show serious symptoms. When they begin testing after the fact to see how many have had the virus then we could see things change quickly. As i understand it that test will be easier to conduct than the real time test.
Don't they suspect the number is 10-15 times higher? That would indicate a million folks as having/had the virus, and then the death rate appears far more comfortable.
----------------------------------------------------------------------
As you say, nobody really knows how many have contracted it, due to the disease being such a recent occurrence and the ability to test not being at the level required at the minute. It's a reasonable assumption that the number infected is much much higher than that confirmed though, that's for sure. It's 4 times more infectious than regular flu (I think) which is something that can be relatively accurately measured, I'd imagine, and there is no vaccination to fight it at this time though. So that would probably allow for rough calculations to be made of how many people are likely to have been infected. A calculation to be made by people more intelligent than me 😂
posted on 6/4/20
Comment deleted by Site Moderator
posted on 6/4/20
I love it when someone puts up a link from an eminent scientist or body in here and JA members dismiss it as a load of bollix and insult the person giving that viewpoint for discussion.
Experts eh?
posted on 6/4/20
We're not being mugged off.
This guy is saying that because so few have been tested the death rate skewed as being very high.
That these deaths are recorded as C19 death whereas when flu kills someone it is the underlying health issues that is given as the cause, again skewing the figures.
Therefore he questions whether this is being blown out of proportion.
I think he misses the point . While flu is a killer too and sees of 1000s every year, it does not have such potential to overwhelm the NHS.
If we just let this spread without control then sure enough the death rate would be still in the low single digit % but this would be from a huge number of people. If this spread to 40% of the country (24m) and 2% died that's 480000 deaths. 40% of the country don't get flu every year.
So the point being missed is that yes, the death rate may be much lower than the headline rate but due to the ease and speed of spread, huge numbers could contract the disease and thus even with a very low death rate, large numbers of people would die.
If 40% of the country contracted it, a death rate of 0.1% = 24,000. Thats about the expected target.
But flu has a DR of about 0.5% so that figure would be closer to 120,000.
The other issue is the ability to treat people. In Italy, overwhelmed health services meant people died without being treated in their 100s and 1000s. Some could have been saved
That is why it is important to limit the spread and the speed of the spread. The less people who get it, the less will die. It's as simple as that.
posted on 6/4/20
Yes, flattening the curve
posted on 6/4/20
comment by Gingernuts (U2992)
posted 3 hours, 57 minutes ago
I love it when someone puts up a link from an eminent scientist or body in here and JA members dismiss it as a load of bollix and insult the person giving that viewpoint for discussion.
Experts eh?
----------------------------------------------------------------------
8 days later and his numbers already match up...
posted on 6/4/20
*DON'T match up
posted on 6/4/20
I think the data on this virus, our actions and the economics involved will be extraordinary.
This virus will help us prepare for the next big pandemic no matter what..
posted on 6/4/20
comment by Stay Safe (U1250)
posted 5 hours, 16 minutes ago
comment by Gingernuts (U2992)
posted 3 hours, 57 minutes ago
I love it when someone puts up a link from an eminent scientist or body in here and JA members dismiss it as a load of bollix and insult the person giving that viewpoint for discussion.
Experts eh?
----------------------------------------------------------------------
8 days later and his numbers already match up...
----------------------------------------------------------------------
I’m not sure what your point is
posted on 6/4/20
comment by Gingernuts (U2992)
posted 25 minutes ago
comment by Stay Safe (U1250)
posted 5 hours, 16 minutes ago
comment by Gingernuts (U2992)
posted 3 hours, 57 minutes ago
I love it when someone puts up a link from an eminent scientist or body in here and JA members dismiss it as a load of bollix and insult the person giving that viewpoint for discussion.
Experts eh?
----------------------------------------------------------------------
8 days later and his numbers already match up...
----------------------------------------------------------------------
I’m not sure what your point is
----------------------------------------------------------------------
Yeah, I was confused his response to your point too
👍🏼
Page 2 of 2