Time to get political, as my work depends on EU imports and free movement of goods and services, I fear this will kill my business before Corona kills me:
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-53395560
So far there is nothing to suggest that there will be a big rise in infections in the winter. In London with a population of 9 million there have been 269 new.positive tests in the last week. In the West Midlands there was a single death across the whole region today. That was in my own hospital, only the second death in the last month. London’s cases started to flatten off before the effects of lockdown and have continued to fall despite fears about public transport, demonstrations and the like. The only likely conclusion is that most of those who were susceptible have now had the virus. For some reason the majority of people do not appear to get it at all - maybe 80%, looking at the best estimates of cities most severely affected. In none of those places: London, New York etc, has there been a second phase of increased transmission once measures were relaxed. This is despite crowded accommodation and public transport.
Because we have been one of the worst affected countries we are now in a better position than most. Probably in towns or cities which have been relatively unscathed there is a chance of isolated increases in the winter, but only likely to reach the total levels experienced in the bigger cities. Also the virus seems to be losing some of its power. The chest physicians where I work have noticed that the patients who are now being admitted with Covid pneumonia are now overall less sick, less likely to need intensive care. Obviously there are individual exceptions to this. Even though the virus may transmit more readily at lower temperatures, most homes and shops are not maintained at 4 degrees and the rate of transmission is hugely reduced outdoors.
Spart, you should adopt the Igor approach to social distancing next time to go to PP ........................
Go to the Harvester.
comment by Scouse (U9675)
posted 9 minutes ago
Spart, you should adopt the Igor approach to social distancing next time to go to PP ........................
Go to the Harvester.
----------------------------------------------------------------------
🤣🤣🤣
comment by Scouse (U9675)
posted 54 minutes ago
Spart, you should adopt the Igor approach to social distancing next time to go to PP ........................
Go to the Harvester.
----------------------------------------------------------------------
Youre a brave man when there's no football on the horizon
The irony of Spart offering out Rev for a cognitive battle, only to then realise he's picking on the wrong guy because of poor reading ability.
Comment deleted by Site Moderator
comment by Strett (U1462)
posted 4 hours, 2 minutes ago
The irony of Spart offering out Rev for a cognitive battle, only to then realise he's picking on the wrong guy because of poor reading ability.
----------------------------------------------------------------------
And then blaming the wrong guy in his apology also
comment by Cinciwolf----JA606 NFL Fantasy Champion 2019----No Emotional Attachments....five long years (U11551)
posted 4 hours, 33 minutes ago
comment by Strett (U1462)
posted 4 hours, 2 minutes ago
The irony of Spart offering out Rev for a cognitive battle, only to then realise he's picking on the wrong guy because of poor reading ability.
----------------------------------------------------------------------
And then blaming the wrong guy in his apology also
----------------------------------------------------------------------
The lexicon of mental gymnastics is Spart.
Spart, if you are still reading, Oxford University is about to publish a study which will say that we may have already reached the equivalent of "herd immunity" in this country. The gist of this is something I have suggested previously and noticed at my workplace, that there is variability of susceptibility in the population, with the most susceptible becoming infected early. Their mathematical model suggests that 20% rather than 80% of the population are needed to be infected to protect the remainder of the "herd". This fits very well the empirical evidence around the world of infection rates falling rapidly once the 20% figure is reached, e.g. in London, New York, the Diamond Princess cruise ship etc, with no increase of infection in these big cities after lockdown is relaxed.
If this is correct (obviously there is always an if) then it's really good news for the UK, less so for countries who haven't had large outbreaks. It doesn't mean individuals can't still get it but it strongly suggests that there will be no "second wave" of rapidly increasing infections. In certain areas of the UK where there have been relatively few cases there would still be potential for mini-outbreaks.
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Page 3 of 3
posted on 13/7/20
Time to get political, as my work depends on EU imports and free movement of goods and services, I fear this will kill my business before Corona kills me:
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-53395560
posted on 13/7/20
So far there is nothing to suggest that there will be a big rise in infections in the winter. In London with a population of 9 million there have been 269 new.positive tests in the last week. In the West Midlands there was a single death across the whole region today. That was in my own hospital, only the second death in the last month. London’s cases started to flatten off before the effects of lockdown and have continued to fall despite fears about public transport, demonstrations and the like. The only likely conclusion is that most of those who were susceptible have now had the virus. For some reason the majority of people do not appear to get it at all - maybe 80%, looking at the best estimates of cities most severely affected. In none of those places: London, New York etc, has there been a second phase of increased transmission once measures were relaxed. This is despite crowded accommodation and public transport.
Because we have been one of the worst affected countries we are now in a better position than most. Probably in towns or cities which have been relatively unscathed there is a chance of isolated increases in the winter, but only likely to reach the total levels experienced in the bigger cities. Also the virus seems to be losing some of its power. The chest physicians where I work have noticed that the patients who are now being admitted with Covid pneumonia are now overall less sick, less likely to need intensive care. Obviously there are individual exceptions to this. Even though the virus may transmit more readily at lower temperatures, most homes and shops are not maintained at 4 degrees and the rate of transmission is hugely reduced outdoors.
posted on 13/7/20
Spart, you should adopt the Igor approach to social distancing next time to go to PP ........................
Go to the Harvester.
posted on 13/7/20
comment by Scouse (U9675)
posted 9 minutes ago
Spart, you should adopt the Igor approach to social distancing next time to go to PP ........................
Go to the Harvester.
----------------------------------------------------------------------
🤣🤣🤣
posted on 13/7/20
comment by Scouse (U9675)
posted 54 minutes ago
Spart, you should adopt the Igor approach to social distancing next time to go to PP ........................
Go to the Harvester.
----------------------------------------------------------------------
Youre a brave man when there's no football on the horizon
posted on 14/7/20
The irony of Spart offering out Rev for a cognitive battle, only to then realise he's picking on the wrong guy because of poor reading ability.
posted on 14/7/20
Comment deleted by Site Moderator
posted on 14/7/20
comment by Strett (U1462)
posted 4 hours, 2 minutes ago
The irony of Spart offering out Rev for a cognitive battle, only to then realise he's picking on the wrong guy because of poor reading ability.
----------------------------------------------------------------------
And then blaming the wrong guy in his apology also
posted on 14/7/20
comment by Cinciwolf----JA606 NFL Fantasy Champion 2019----No Emotional Attachments....five long years (U11551)
posted 4 hours, 33 minutes ago
comment by Strett (U1462)
posted 4 hours, 2 minutes ago
The irony of Spart offering out Rev for a cognitive battle, only to then realise he's picking on the wrong guy because of poor reading ability.
----------------------------------------------------------------------
And then blaming the wrong guy in his apology also
----------------------------------------------------------------------
The lexicon of mental gymnastics is Spart.
posted on 17/7/20
Spart, if you are still reading, Oxford University is about to publish a study which will say that we may have already reached the equivalent of "herd immunity" in this country. The gist of this is something I have suggested previously and noticed at my workplace, that there is variability of susceptibility in the population, with the most susceptible becoming infected early. Their mathematical model suggests that 20% rather than 80% of the population are needed to be infected to protect the remainder of the "herd". This fits very well the empirical evidence around the world of infection rates falling rapidly once the 20% figure is reached, e.g. in London, New York, the Diamond Princess cruise ship etc, with no increase of infection in these big cities after lockdown is relaxed.
If this is correct (obviously there is always an if) then it's really good news for the UK, less so for countries who haven't had large outbreaks. It doesn't mean individuals can't still get it but it strongly suggests that there will be no "second wave" of rapidly increasing infections. In certain areas of the UK where there have been relatively few cases there would still be potential for mini-outbreaks.
Page 3 of 3