A few weeks ago I posted this on the Bolton board, but the thread descended into a battle between our fans who want Coyle sacked and those who think he should be given more time.
In fact, I was just trying to point out how unpredictable this league is, and I believe the data (after 9 games) shows that The Championship is such a tough league - both in terms of getting out of, and in terms of determining who may do well before a ball is kicked.
There are 3 measures that make this so (analysed over 16 seasons):
1. Lowest clean sheets
2. Smallest points gap between promotion and relegation
3. Highest goals per game ratio
Even at this early stage of the season, this is already proving to be true, as the table shows...
| Prem | Champ | League 1 | League 2 | |
| Matches Played | 59 | 108 | 117 | 118 |
| % Clean Sheets | 24.6 | 18.1 | 24.8 | 27.5 |
| Gap (Promotion to Relegation) | 10 points | 10 points | 12 points | 15 points |
| Goals per Game | 2.9 | 3.1 | 2.6 | 2.9 |
The second issue is that the Bolton chairman has said that Bolton should be aiming for 2 points per game (i.e. 92 points) to achieve our target of automatic promotion.
Again, this target will GUARANTEE promotion, but is far higher than what has been needed over the last 16 years (the average needed has been 83 points).
| Season | Points |
| 2011-12 | 87 |
| 2010-11 | 81 |
| 2009-10 | 80 |
| 2008-09 | 81 |
| 2007-08 | 76 |
| 2006-07 | 85 |
| 2005-06 | 82 |
| 2004-05 | 86 |
| 2003-04 | 80 |
| 2002-03 | 81 |
| 2001-02 | 87 |
| 2000-01 | 88 |
| 1999-00 | 88 |
| 1998-99 | 87 |
| 1997-98 | 91 |
| 1996-97 | 77 |
| Average | 83.5 |
So, fellow Championship fans, is there any need for panic after 9 games if you find your team somewhere between 6th and 21st after 9 games???