Here we go then folks, possibly the greatest weekend in the Rugby calendar, 12 top class matches with all still to play for over 3 days. By Round 6 too many things are decided and in Rounds 1-4 too few are, international weekends have fewer games, with fewer still quite so intense. So get your drink in, smash the phone and mobile and prepare yourself for the big one!
As its a special, this weekend we will predict EVERY games, its 2 points for the right result, 1 for being accurate to +/- 5 or less, 1 for being the most accurate predictor, 3 bonus points for forecasting all 12 outcomes, 2 bonus points for predicting 9 -11 and 1 bonus point for predicting 6-8 outcomes correctly.
Northampton v Castres - Northampton by 6
Both sides have to win to hope to progress, and both are well placed in their respective leagues, this is likely to be a tough tight game but Northampton have the crucial home advantage and that bit more experience
SARS - Northampton by 4 - 4 pts
DingBatMan - Northampton by 9 - 3pts
Sale v Montpellier - Montpellier by 21
An interesting one this, Sale are rooted to the bottom but French sides rarely play well away from home and Montpellier don't have the H-Cup pedigree, nonetheless a win for them is vital or else the door to the best loser spot will shut on them and open for Leinster, Munster & Northampton.
SARS - Montpellier by 6 - 3 pts
DingBatMan - Montpellier by 6 - 3pts
Ulster v Glasgow - Ulster by 17
The Aviva's top 2 go head to head, but Glasgow are already done whilst Ulster will be fired up after the home defeat to Northampton, and at Ravenhill on a winters day you can't seeing anything but the big red hand throttling the Warriors
SARS - Ulster by 8 - 2pts
DingBatMan - Ulster by 21 - 4pts
Clermont Auvergne v Exeter - Clermont by 43
Clermont are going strong on all fronts and will be looking for the number one seeding, I think Exeter might scare them a little at first but I'd be stunned by anything other than a big score for Clermont
SARS - Clermont by 17 - 2pts
DingBatMan - Clermont by 21 - 3pts
Harlequins v Connacht - Harlequins by 39
Essentially a repeat of what I sadi for Clermont - Exeter, memories of last years defeat at Connacht will drive Quins on more so
SARS - Harlequins by 15 - 3pts
DingBatMan - Harlequins by 15 - 3pts
Leinster v Scarlets - Leinster by 19
You wouldn't like them when they're angry! and after back to back defeats to Clermont, Leinster are fighting for their lives and have to get the bonus point, caution to be thrown to the wind and Scarlets to the lions
SARS - Leinster by 20 - 4pts
DingBatMan - Leinster by 30 - 2pts
Racing Metro 92 v Saracens - Saracens by 9
A big one for Saracens this, a win would see them close in on a home quarter final, whilst defeat would see them struggling for a best losers spot. Racing are 8th in the Top 14 and I think Saracens have too great a will and need to win.
SARS - Saracens by 5 - 4pts
DingBatMan - Racing by 4 - 0pts
Toulon v Cardiff Blues - Toulon by 20
Top of the Top 14 and possibly the best side around at this moment in time, at home to a side with 1 point so far, not who, but by how many
SARS - Toulon by 20 - 4pts
DingBatMan - Toulon by 12 - 2pts
Zebre v Biarritz - Biarritz by 26
Realistically bot these sides are out, Zebre have been getting better, and Biarritz are no great shakes this year, so there is a chance of a surprise, but only a chance I'd say and it could be an oddly entertaining game for the neutral
SARS - Biarritz by 10 - 2pts
DingBatMan - Biarritz by 15 - 3pts
Edinburgh v Munster - Munster by 9
Munster have been struggling of late, but they need to win and win big and when their backs are to the wall and Munster need to win, they usually do, especially against an Edinburgh side with no points at all
SARS - Munster by 12 - 3pts
DingBatMan - Munster by 9 - 4pts
Ospreys v Leicester - DRAW
Not one for the faint hearted this, a win for Leicester would give them the box seat, defeat would make it very difficult for them. But which Ospreys side will show up, the one that denied Toulouse a losing bonus point, or the one that beat Zebre at home by one point. Surely Welsh pride must dictate the former?
SARS - Ospreys by 4 - 2pts
DingBatMan - Ospreys by 9 - 0pts
Toulouse v Treviso - Toulouse by 21
The failing titans struggle on, bereft of the craft or cutting edge of recent yers, but the very name Toulouse can never be taken lightly and should be easily enough to see them past Treviso
SARS - Toulouse by 11 - 3pts
DingBatMan - Toulouse by 9 - 2pts
And two bonus points each too!
What do you think?
Heineken Cup Predictions - Round 5
posted on 12/1/13
Sorry lads a bit late for it this week.
Just watched the Sarries v RCM match and what a come back! I'm not much of a fan of the London Springboks but that was a top performance.
Northamption vs Castre was a snore fest!
posted on 12/1/13
Agree Sporty. Sarries looked dead and buried 30 mins in. but heel of a game that was.
posted on 14/1/13
Well that was an interesting weekend.
On my Lot -
Ulster were solid i thought and look set for a home semi no more than they deserve.
Munster were wet and stodgy (like the weather but not because of it!) and at times completely clueless. I said it last week and i will say it again. ROG is still a very useful Fly Half but not for the game plan Rob Penny is trying to put in place. I personally get the feeling that he's (Penny) swimming upstream in limerick and the establishment down there are fighting him on making the changes he wants and needs. They need to get behind him and a very brave decision needs to be made about ROG.
On Leinster, we were epic and but for some even more Epic defending by the scarlets we should have scored a hat full more. Despite some of the media poo pooing the Scarlets performance! They did really very well against what was the most vicious onslaught i have ever seen Leinster produce. Any other team would have folded and been hammered twice! Scarlets kept it reasonably close i think. The bad Munster result leaves us in a position of fighting them for the 8th spot in the knockout stages. We need to go to Exeter and score a bag full of points in the form of TRYS. On Exeter they got royally throttled in France, and now they have to play the champs next week who are suddenly on fire again. This could turn out to be a very humiliating couple of weeks for the Chiefs. On the other hand, I have been informed they are a very different animal at home... where the drums will be belting and the tomahawks shaking.... I guess they will have their own motivation not least being part of the reason the defending champs get knocked out! Another cracker coming up there!
What did you guys think of your respective teams?
posted on 14/1/13
Lots of interesting stuff last week, even more to look to the week ahead.
First, something everyone seems to have missed - I'm certain Ronan O'Gara will be cited for kicking one of the Edinburgh forwards after he appeared to check him. The officials missed it but he'll not get away with that one.
A big performance from Saracens - they must be regarded as genuine contenders after that, like Munster in days of old they were on the back fun for most of the match, but just kept the scoreboard ticking over. Speaking of which, Munster were bad, really bad, they got away with it but I think thats the 9 lives up, can they still "stand up and fight" or are they down for the count
In 2, a real old school knock down drag out game between Leicester and the Ospreys, if Dan Biggar had brought his kicking boots it would have been a different story, but sometimes it really is a game of inches
In 3, Quins looking good
In 4, Northampton & Castres finished each other, but quote of the week from the commentator "that was like a hammer on a meringue" as Ulster burst over to score - don't know the chaps name but I always love his commentary
In 5, Leinster getting there but they're still not firing on all cylinders, but they are now much closer to Munster - 1 try in it now. Clermont march on
In 6, Montpellier looked very good away from home, Toulon very good at home - fun in the sun next week in what good be a cracker
So, on a group by group basis:
Saracens will almost certainly play Ulster in the quarters, Ulster are away to Castres, Saracens are at home to Edinburgh, one point and two tries behind. They're likely to really go for it and I'd fancy a Saracens quarter final. Munster also have to go for it, but will Racing care about the Amlin Cup or even bother turning up, who knows but Munster need a kick in the pants after that Edinburgh game. I think they still have the edge of Leinster but I'd see it as 60/40 now rather than 80/20 as it was on Friday
Only 1 game that counts in Group 2, two great sides someway off their best but Leicester have the edge at home
Group 3
Could Quins win all 6, away at Biarritz I'd tend to say no, but will Biarritz give a toss is the bigger question. An interesting point was also made that Quins game will improve in the summer with quick handling more suited to warm weather
In Group 4 Ulster need to win at Castres and probably need a bonus point win to get a home tie, I understand they haven't won in France in the modern era (perhaps this might just be the Heineken Cup?) and I think they might struggle to do it next week
In 5 the big one is Leinster at Exeter, this will be the biggest ever game at Sandy Park and having been perhaps rather harshly denied at the RDS, Exeter will be well up for it. Can Leinster rise to the occasion, it is a tough ask, but they are a tough team. My prediction? the final runner up spot will be decided with less than 10 minutes to play, but when they take the field they will know the Montpellier result. Elsewhere Clermont to take the top seed spot - and to face ????
In 6,
posted on 14/1/13
Aargh!
In 6 Montpellier to edge it to create the Leinster / Munster clash of the titans by proxy if you will
posted on 14/1/13
LOL love that last comment mate.
And totally agree it will be the final ten mins that makes the Exeter game. Leinster are running on one game plan at the moment, pure aggression and no scoring from penalty kicks.
To be fair a team of such quality should be in the knockouts by default but then we would never get these incredible games to look forward to!
Anyway, Isac Boss will again start for Leinster, being replaced with 20 or 25 mins on the clock by Reddan. The Plan in a nutshell, break them in the first 60 mins and run rings around a tired team in the final 20 ball speeding up considerably by Reddan.
How good are Exeter at defending SARS? because a drunk gypsy would have waltzed through their defensive line this past weekend.
posted on 14/1/13
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posted on 14/1/13
Anyone doing a Six Nations thread?
posted on 14/1/13
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posted on 18/1/13
Let's hope the weather doesn't ruin this weekend!