Assessment of strength

So with two races down, I thought I would post how I see things for this year from the top five teams.

McLaren - It hasn't been a great start to the year for the boys from Woking. They strangely decided for a revamp despite this being the last season of these rules yet I don't think it has been the disaster people are making out. Losing Lewis obviously accounts for some of the speed (in the article of the drivers pace Lewis averaged almost half a second faster in quali than JB) but they are very confident of fast development for the car. I have no doubt at all that McLaren will win this year, they always do but I think a title challenge isn't on mainly due to the drivers. Perez really needs to improve on his first two races.

Ferrari - I really like this years Ferrari, I would even go as far to say Alonso is my favourite for the title. Fernando needs to up his game though in quali, he should be beating Massa like he was last year. I think had he not crashed at turn one in Malaysia, Alonso would have won that race based on how RB struggled with tyre management. Massa needs to improve in his race pace so that he is right there taking points off rivals for Fernando (we all know he is clear #2).

Red Bull - The Red Bull is once again the fastest car on the grid (fifth year on the trot if you include 09 where reliability lost it for them). Last year they had the problem of heating tyres quickly and therefore qualifying well. Once they resolved that and were not being held up in the start of races they were flying. This season they seem to have the problem of tyre degradation, but the car is still fundamentally the quickest. This seems worse on the softer tyres which will and already has hampered them. Starting on soft tyres already a few laps old means that the first stop will almost always bring you out in the pack, and RB look like they are the team most likely to stop first. I expect that they will fix this problem but the question is when.

Mercedes - It is looking like a decent car to be honest. I don't see it challenging for the title however as it looks like it lacks the race pace of RB, Ferrari and Lotus. Consistency and development will be key for Merc, but will they decide to devote more time to 2014? Hamilton is having a few problems with brakes and steering (including the steering wheel itself which he personally is redesigning) so I think he has more time to find yet.

Lotus - Well they also started last year like this didn't they. Lotus seem to have the best car for tyre deg on the grid and GP's where the number of pit-stops are borderline (which China looks to be), they will thrive. The race pace seems as good as anyone, and the key will be if Kimi can clear slower cars early on that have out-qualified him. Last season had he not gone for a tour of Brazil he would have completed every lap of every race, so they have great reliability and consistency too. Will it be enough to mix it for a title challenge? I think it could but don't think it will, I expect that McLaren and Mercedes will cause too many problems at the start of races.

So, in summary, I think Alonso looks to have the best chance of the title this year. Vettel has a great car again though and Mr Newey will have a few tricks up his sleeve in development once again. I would love to see Kimi, Lewis and Jenson get in the fight too but I doubt they can.
This year is huge in terms of driver line-up for 2014. Alonso, Vettel, Button, Hamilton, Rosberg and Raikkonen are all certain to be in one of the top five seats but that leaves four places up for grabs. Massa has started very well and looks like that sort of performance shown early on will be enough. Webber I think will leave the team, clearing up a seat as hotly desired as a mid-90's Williams. Perez has much to prove, his performances since signing that contract have been poor, he needs to show McLaren he is the man to stick with or he will be out. Grosjean too has started poorly and that is also a great car to step into. So, as I see it, three top drives are available. Who will seize the chance? Based off what I see happening this year I would go Hulkenberg, Bianchi and Kubica (I can only hope )