Not just "concentrating on ourselves"

The opposite, the Ferguson mantra, is a worthy creed, but League Tables are a competition between many teams, so how the 23 teams opposed to us are doing is very relevant.

And of course we can do something about them when we play them.

Losing all our remaining games is possible and some, but not all the rest winning all theirs, is also possible. As getting 69 points is beyond the current bottom 2 we can be sure of League 2 football (at least) next season. We can also take comfort in the probability that only one or two teams in this League are likely to average 2 points a game for the entire season. In fact, only 4 out of the top 5 have this possibility. This would demand maximum points from the remaining games by Luton and Portsmouth although Plymouth and Rovers could achieve it and still drop points.

However, this average number is significant as last season over the final 12 games 2 teams did exceed the 2 points average. One of them, Bristol Rovers took 3rd and Accrington just missed out. Surprisingly another 4 managed better than 1.75 in the last dozen. So who might do it this year?

Current form puts Stevenage (15 points from 18, but no wins against teams currently above them) and Luton (12 from 18 (3W-3D-0L and each win vs bottom half teams) into the threatening class, but they both have games against fellow contenders coming up. Stevenage face Carlisle, Colchester, Mansfield, Luton and Portsmouth whilst Luton have matches with Carlisle, Colchester, Exeter and Mansfield. So a good deal of mutual elimination is inevitable. Portsmouth have to encounter Plymouth and Colchester, as well as Stevenage.

So that third automatic spot is clearly the most hotly contested and the 2 point average would carry Stevenage to 77 and Luton to 81. Winning all their remaining games would take either of them 11 or 12 points further than that, though they only have 3 to share when they meet next Saturday.

With us on 69 and Plymouth on precisely the same points they had this time last year when they missed out from being third, neither of us can feel safe from a late surge. More points are a necessity.

Focusing on the top 9 we have four 6-pointers, 3 home and 1 away, Plymouth have 4 too, but all away, Carlisle have 4, 2(H) and 2(A), Luton have 5 with 2 at home, Portsmouth have 4 with only 1 at home, Stevenage have 5 with 2 at home and Exeter have 4 (1 at home).

I have left out the 2 sides with potentially the most excitement ahead of them in the race, Mansfield (7th) with 8 - 5(H) and Colchester (10th) who play 6 of the teams above them all at home. So these two, despite only standing on 52 and 51 points, have scope to take away 42 points from their rivals.

So of the 102 games to be played by the top 9 there are altogether 44 six-pointers amongst them.

Anyone still reading at this point may have spotted the fact that we have the joint fewest 6 pointers and only 1 away.

So what do I conclude? Let us pray that the teams below us do some sharing of points and that we can pick up another 13 or 14 which should be enough.