Could well be the most important judgement calls for the club since pre Abramovic.
The club unquestionably need to turn the squads fortunes around in order to improve the clubs financial status.( mid- table) > (top 6 > pushing to top 4 level)
Currently the club are positioned to have to heavily rely upon trading players to maintain FFP/ PSR compliance & simultaneously continue to develop the inconsistent , injury blighted squad.
This is a method that has its limits, as it is only as viable if the club has a surplus of tradeable players who are viable to sell at a profit & will not weaken the squad. If this method weakens the squad it risks being counter intuitive.
The club has 4 players who are considered surplus to the 25 man squad, all of which need to be sold/ moved on to reduce the operating costs and to bring pure profit where possible.
Kappa, Ziyech, Sarr, lukaku,
After that pure profit players who have been ear-marked as up for sale.
Hall, Mattesen, Broja,Chalobah.
Then squad players, who for one reason or another are considered expendable.
Finally, youth academy players .
The squad needs more work? but due to the limited funding which will be available the next 2/4 players in will be major calls which will have the potential to turn the squad into a top 6 side > able to push to top4 level or push the club into further mediocrity, which will cause a continued downsizing of the club & its fortunes.
The club is at a pivotal point with it dealings in the transfer market imo.
Will the club maintain its current strategy , investing in youth prospects ?
or will it change course and introduce some experienced quality to add balance & strengthen the depth?
Finally what is the issue with the never ending injury blight ?
COY Blues, KTBFFH, UTC
Chelseafc- next player transfer movements
posted on 8/3/24
CFC have backed themselves into a very difficult corner to navigate from and build successfully back to a top 6 or better side.
The key thing here which is the strategy and the decision making and the question you have to ask is do you have good enough people in place, capable of plotting your recovery from this most difficult of places.
As you say its the very difficult balance of selling players to raise revenue for compliance purposes, targeting players that are truly surplus, but may be having to sell other too, without weakening the squad too much and then strengthening has to be a balance of future & experience.
All this while not actually knowing if the manager is good enough to get the job done
posted on 8/3/24
Yeah, there are numerous variable all in counter to each other.
The manager thing definitely doesn't help.
The issues within the squad, which area to target to begin to stabilise.?
The defence? injury prone & light in real quality to cover the injury blight?
The midfield, lacking the quality to take the pressure off the defence and the consistency to bring the creative flair to the attack & increase the goal ratio?
Or the attack ?
This is why i believe the next 2/4 players in will be major judgement calls.
Overshadowing the whole thing is the clubs thinking and strategy.
Will they continue to double down or alter course slightly
posted on 8/3/24
Your best route back now is finding gems far below their true value and letting Poch nurture them.
The team he had at Spurs was filled with these players - Kane being home grown, Son costing a below average fee at the time, Dele costing £5m, Eriksen £10m. Toby was surplus to requirements at Atletico so was cheap, Vertonghen £10m. We paid a pittance for Walker and Rose and even Loris was only £10 which was about the average for a keeper at that point. Dembele was about the average price, can’t remember what we paid for Wanyama.
You have done it recently, Palmer is worth more than you paid, possibly Petrovic as well
posted on 8/3/24
Makes sense, but what the issue is until the club can detach itself from the overreliance on player trading to FFP compliance and squad development, it will be continuously vulnerable to FFP/ PSR breaches.
The problem are the fixed costs.
The 25 man squad wage bill > 160m/ 170m ( down 30% 80m from 240m)
The 5 yr Amortization > 200m
The other operating costs > 100m / 130m / 150m .
These three costs are the responsibilities that club must first clear.
posted on 8/3/24
In the short term CFC need to 1. address pressing financial & FFP issues
2. while also needing to invest, trying to find a decent balance in the squad and address 2 or 3 key areas
3. While also trying to improve results to get them back on the European gravy train.
I am not sure all these are deliverable at once. 1 will be a constant threat for several season, 2 is achievable but probably not in one window and may involve more potential and short term stop gaps and 3. is questionable as their ability to invest to a level to enable them to compete is limited by 1.
All the while the well run clubs will all be investing and building up their clubs. By the time CFC sort themselves out, you could well see a group of United, City, Liverpool, Arsenal and Spurs all in very strong financial positions and, if well managed, pulling away from the rest, hotly pursued by Villa and NUFC.
It is going to be a tough time to close the gap in an era when financial restrictions and being enforced and where revenue will be king.
posted on 8/3/24
comment by ifarka, (B-C- out) (U8182)
posted 26 minutes ago
Makes sense, but what the issue is until the club can detach itself from the overreliance on player trading to FFP compliance and squad development, it will be continuously vulnerable to FFP/ PSR breaches.
The problem are the fixed costs.
The 25 man squad wage bill > 160m/ 170m ( down 30% 80m from 240m)
The 5 yr Amortization > 200m
The other operating costs > 100m / 130m / 150m .
These three costs are the responsibilities that club must first clear.
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Chelsea have an advantage over Villa and Newcastle though given the historic size of their commercial deals - Newcastle and Villa are desperately trying to grow theirs within the confines of them not being deemed inflated. Chelsea don’t have that growing pain.
It’s all about cutting losses for Chelsea and then spending smarter
posted on 8/3/24
Stability,
The squad needs to be right so it can progress to a top 6 level & the combined operating costs need to trimmed out & steady.