On the basis that I think everybody excepts that our fate will be relegation for a second time in three seasons, does anybody think that we will be capable of mounting a promotion push again?
I am very doubtful that we will, or at least that we will get automatically. Firstly, there is the threat of a points deduction from the EFL, who will be hungry for revenge after we humiliated them with our defence against their charges. I can see anything up to -10, which would immediately blunt our hopes of promotion and probably mean that it's play offs at best. There's also the possibility of a transfer ban, which would limit what we can do with recruitment (not necessarily the worst thing, given our track record).
Secondly, there's the manager situation. Do we keep RVN or get rid and get either a more established coach (ala Maresca) or an experienced manager with a track record of promotion? And who is out there that fits either criteria, and who would come to a basketcase like Leicester?
Thirdly, and perhaps most crucially, is that the squad this season is genuinely worse than what we had in the Championship last year, and has far fewer sellable assets than we had 2 years ago. Hermansen will go, probably for a reduced fee after relegation, and we will hopefully finally rid ourselves of Faes and Ward. I don't see Vardy getting another contract offer, which is sad for his career with us to end but also probably necessary to reduce costs. Ricardo will probably opt to move on. El Khannouss has showed glimpses of quality and might have done enough to get a move. Other than that though, most of the players we have are either not good enough for the Premier League or are on lucrative contracts that will reduce our chances of getting rid of them.
We are probably looking at a situation where Stolarczyk is our Number One and we get in an experienced understudy. We won't be able to shift JJ so he will be competing with the new guy we have signed from Parma plus maybe Cover, who has done well at Port Vale. Vestergaard is on a ridiculous contract, so we will be stuck with him, probably as our first choice CB alongside Coady and/or Souttar unless we sell him (let's hope Ben Nelson can come back from injury and make the case). Unless he gets another loan, I imagine Single White Female (aka Victor Kristiansen) will have to suck it up and play in the Championship for a year or two.
Then we have the midfield. Winks may move on and, frankly, he has looked like a shadow of himself this year without Enzo. Nidid will probably stick around, likewise Soumare who will be in the last year of his contract and will himself probably just have to suck it up for a year. Skipp will still be here (yay) and may find his level. McAteer will probably be our first choice RW until Fatawu returns, and the latter will be a genuine threat if he can get back to his peak. Mavididi hasn't done enough to earn a PL move, so he will probably still be here. BEK will be a very good No.10 if he stays, and probably fill the KDH role of being a top half PL player in the Championship. If he goes, hopefully we will get to see more of Will Alves, who was robbed of a chance to show his quality last year due to injury. Then we have Ayew and BDCR, who we will be stuck with on their lucrative contacts. I don't think either will be much of an asset in the Championship, but we are stuck with them thanks to Rudkin's negotiating skills.
Up front, we are probably looking at having to get at least one new striker, and probably 2. Daka is....Daka, so we can't rely on him for goals, even at Championship level. Cannon looks to be on his way.
To me, it doesn't feel like a squad that will be guaranteed a top 2 place. The mismatch of a few young talents stuck amongst players who aren't good enough for the PL and aging players on lucrative contracts who will add little to us, feels very Micky Adams-esque circa 2004-2006.
Overall, I don't have the same confidence that I did after relegation previously. This doesn't feel like a squad or team that will be successful in the second tier this time around. We have worse players, and those we have lack the hunger and drive to right the wrongs. The only thing that does makes me feel slightly optimistic that we can challenge in spite of this is the fact that Burnley and Sheffield United are in the top 3 this season, and they were both awful last year (arguably worse than us). But I do think we need to prepare for the fact that we might be stuck in the Championship for a while, probably until we get a change of ownership and start to repair the mess Top and Rudkin have inflicted on us.
Just speculation of course but we need to face up to reality soon.
Preparing for next season
posted on 16/1/25
Well if we do go down and it’s looking quite likely unless we somehow get two or three decent signings ( which will mean selling the likes of Faes and Okoli to raise some money ) done before the end of the window.
If we drop back down I fear we may become a mid table team for sometime due to many of the reasons in the “authors “ post.
posted on 17/1/25
As I mentioned on 98's thread there is some hope for next year given how readily we dispatched QPR in the FA Cup. Also one of the 'benefits' of having such a poor squad is that they will mostly stay with us.
Hopefully Soumare will be on his way in the same taxi as Danny - despite his much improved showings recently he just doesn't cut the mustard defensively. I'd like to see the back of Vestergaard too as he would no doubt go back to looking dominant and being a key figure in the team at the lower (his?) level - which if we were to have a successful season would then set him to be shown up again in the EPL. I'm just hoping Ben Nelson can recover from his injury as he looked really promising.
Even with a swingeing points deduction we may be competitive enough to make the playoffs, automatics would be a tall order.
I'm still hopeful that we could have a reasonable time next year but the key point against this is it appears that Top does not have the nous to realise that the change that's desperately needed is in the DoF position.
posted on 17/1/25
Soumare is an interesting one. He was poor under Rodgers and Cooper, but showed glimpses under Smith and has been one of our better performers in recent weeks under RVN. There is definitely a player in there, but he seems to struggle with his application. He only has a year left so I think it'll be difficult to shift him out the door - if he could apply himself correctly, he could be a cheat code in the Championship, or just a complete waste of space if he doesn't.
I am certainly hoping that we see Ben Nelson return from injury and start to show his worth in the first team. I have never rated Souttar and would think he will end up being sold to Sheff Utd, which leaves us with Vestergaard and Coady as aging CBs. We need some young talent to come through, as one of the downsides of our strategy last season was that only McAteer really came through from into the first team.
The performance of Burnley and Sheff Utd this season shows that poor PL teams can still compete for automatic promotion. But they had Championship standard teams to start with, and that is probably their natural level. We have a mix of aging PL players and those from abroad who haven't showed they can compete at PL level and may lack the application for the Championship. That's why I am not as confident that we can achieve top 2 next season, with or without a points deduction. Players like Praet, Iheanacho and Casadei struggled to get into our first team last season, yet would arguably walk into this year's team.