Now that the transfer window is closed, in many ways the season really does start this weekend.
If you imagine a set of circumstances where Amorim actually came in this season and so didn't have the baggage of last season, I'm sure there would be a lot more optimism.
There is plenty of potential in this squad and if it wasn't for fairly recent history, I think top 6 would be considered a minimum target.
But of course because of what has happened, for some, where we will end up has been somewhat tempered, with expectations being kept fairly low for a club of our stature.
I think you would look at our squad and think, why on earth would you try to play Bruno in CM in a formation that doesn't suit him. This stubbornness / naivety could be Amorim's downfall, or equally it could simply be that he hasn't got what it takes to be successful here.
There's always a fine line of sticking to your principles but also recognising what are the strengths of your players and how to get the best out of them.
Ultimately we know how we will line up in the 3-4-3 system, but I just wonder if a 4-3-3 would work considerably better. You have the new front 3, with Amad and Zirkzee as alternatives, a midfield 3 of Cas/Ugarte, with 2 out of 3 of Mainoo/Bruno/Mount. A back 4 of Shaw / Dorgu, Mas / Dalot, and 2 CBs out of the 5 we have available (when everyone is fit)
The lack of flexibility could cost us. Amorim says that his system isn't rigid, but he needs to show that in practice.
So whilst the game isn't played on paper, the squad, whilst not complete, (e.g. we know we want a top CM) should be more than able to get a relatively high finish.
I still back Amorim, but he needs to show he has learnt from last season, and ultimately it's about getting results alongside improved performances
I know there have been umpteen articles probably similar to this, but it's a slow day and I don't work Wednesdays ................and there's no UK racing on today
On paper...............
posted 4 weeks ago
It’s why xg has its flaws, a team that takes lots of shots from difficult positions can accumulate a high xg across the season, even if they aren’t creating that many quaoity chances - this is something we’ve seen with United for a number of years where we had players like Ronaldo, Bruno, Rashford, Garnacho, Pogba and Antony shooting all the time from ridiculous positions, and then people pointed to finishing being a bigger issue than what our eyes tell us with a creativity problem.
posted 4 weeks ago
comment by Red Russian (U4715)
posted 13 minutes ago
comment by EVERYTHING’S POTE! (U17054)
posted 8 minutes ago
comment by Darren The King Fletcher (U10026)
posted 32 minutes ago
Problem with xg is that it’s cumulative, we’ve not created that many good chances. Looking at big chances created we’ve created six which is 9th best, whereas Chelsea are top with 12.
Lies, damn lies and xg.
----------------------------------------------------------------------
xG effectively accounts for that, though. That’s sort of the point of it.
Chances you’d expect to put away 9/10 times will get a 0.9xG. Create ten 0.1xG chances and you’d expect to score one.
Unless there’s evidence that we overperform against high xG chances and underperform against low xG chances?
(Personally, I’d rather see us create twenty 0.1xG chances in a game than three 0.7xG chances, for more than one reason.)
----------------------------------------------------------------------
I guess in such a small data sample, having two penalties is going to skew the xG in a favourable-looking direction. Would be interesting to see how the non-penalty xG looks (though I'm too lazy to look it up).
----------------------------------------------------------------------
We’re third in the league in non-penalty xG over the last ten PL games (three this season plus the last seven from last season) according to the BBC article linked above.
posted 4 weeks ago
comment by Darren The King Fletcher (U10026)
posted 1 minute ago
It’s why xg has its flaws, a team that takes lots of shots from difficult positions can accumulate a high xg across the season, even if they aren’t creating that many quaoity chances - this is something we’ve seen with United for a number of years where we had players like Ronaldo, Bruno, Rashford, Garnacho, Pogba and Antony shooting all the time from ridiculous positions, and then people pointed to finishing being a bigger issue than what our eyes tell us with a creativity problem.
----------------------------------------------------------------------
But xG still accounts for that. 90 0.1xG shots deliver as many goals (namely nine) as 10 0.9xG shots.
posted 4 weeks ago
But this is where I diagree with the modelling, I simply do not think that is true for a second.
posted 4 weeks ago
And it fails to account for the quality of a player, Bruno taking those shots compared to Antony would give far different results.
posted 4 weeks ago
comment by Darren The King Fletcher (U10026)
posted 31 minutes ago
And it fails to account for the quality of a player, Bruno taking those shots compared to Antony would give far different results.
----------------------------------------------------------------------
That much is true. At least we now have two tens who massively outperform their xG (cough, only last season, cough… )
posted 4 weeks ago
Shame we’ve got a shiiiit manager.
posted 4 weeks ago
Feels like an alright team on paper, just unbalanced in terms of the squad building.
I guess the idea is that you can organise most teams into a hard to beat unit and the more talented players will turns draws into wins? But the defence has been so abject it goes out the window. Wonder if a new keeper will settle it all down
posted 4 weeks ago
Scoring goals has been, and will, be the biggest problem for this team.
posted 4 weeks ago
comment by Darren The King Fletcher (U10026)
posted 3 hours, 41 minutes ago
Scoring goals has been, and will, be the biggest problem for this team.
----------------------------------------------------------------------
Nahhhh. The front 3 are quality, and will score plenty once they have gelled.