In many respects its sad that this is set in Week 5 such that both teams come into it rather down at heart after 4 consecutive defeats, had it been earlier in the tournament, it may have raised hopes (though probably falsely) that this would be anything other than the wooden spoon decider.
In many ways the two sides are very similar, both have decent packs but very serious problems in the backs and one can't imagine a try fest by any means. Italy have been generally solid in the pack and have rarely been embarassed - Ireland away being the only exception. Scotland have threatened to show things in attack, but they've never quite materialised and the defence has began to become more shaky.
This is likely to be a game of fine margins and is hard to call, one piece of class from two sets of anaemic backs maybe enough to turn the game one way or the other. In the scrum Italy have the edge and much will depend on Gray and Denton, if they can hold the Scots scrum together it might give them the edge in the game, but its a tough ask away from home at a time of low morale.
Maybe the home crowd just might inspire Italy's backs to fashion something, but Scotland's now have to stand up and be counted and there's scarce sign of either happening. For me Brunel's organistaion, the home advantage and a bruising game at the end of a dispiriting campaign push it in Italy's favour and I believe this will draw the curtain on Andy Robinson's time in charge - Italy by 3
What do you think? Where do I have it right / wrong?
Six Nations Forecasts: Italy vs Scotland
posted on 13/3/12
Nipper's got a footy match so I'll miss the 1st two games on Saturday.
I'll record Wales-France...
Scotland should win this one handily. Should.
Look at their stats so far.
More possession than their opponents in all 4 matches to date but can't convert this into scores.
Italy are tough nuts at home but can't kick for sugar.
Both sides fade as the game goes on.
So, probably Scotland by about 6 (very possibly 6-0) unless their combined fatigue enduces a six try carnaval in the last ten mins.
posted on 13/3/12
This match has been the hardest to call out of all the games this championship for me, I will go with Scotland by 5 (slightly because you went Italy too heh).
posted on 13/3/12
Italy by 2 for me!
Could go either way and is definitely a 50/50 occasion (not too dissimilar to the other 2 matches on Saturday)!
posted on 13/3/12
well its only Tuesday, and i normally refrain from calling any games until i know a bit more about whats going on.
But for me I think i have to go with the Azzurri by a score. lets say 5 :S
I think something profound happened to Scotland last week in Dublin. That was simply that they got a massive wake up call. They have been so close in other games that they started to believe the news papers and the comments like - "oh they are so close to being a really top class team" "contenders" "a knock on away from glory" etc etc
Italy for what they are, are used to losing, are not buying into and "dark horses" scenarios and are just trying to do their best. Such that when they get a drumming form Ireland, they take it on the chin and move on.
I think the beating Scotland took from Ireland was far more damaging from a mentality perspective and will have rocked their confidence to the core. Because they just got knocked off a pedestal and that pedestal was built on hype rather than honesty.
Andy Robinson has a dreadful record thus far. Yet everyone in Scotland is saying he's doing a great job.
Thats a pretty big pedestal holding all those naive dreams aloft.
I suppose that could be considered harsh. But im calling it as i see it.
If richie gray played for any other team.... phuuuwwwar! that guy is awesome and deserves a better group of players around him. He will finally get it this summer on the Lions Tour.
posted on 14/3/12
The game itself will be interesting. Both sides have something to lose and not much to win, but yet both have tried to play a more open and positive style.
Will it be helter skelter stuff with both sides let off the leash? or will it be a tense affair with both sides in fear of losing? Or will it be a battle of styles? Italian structure and close driving forward play versus the buccannerring Scottish backs?
posted on 14/3/12
Indeed GG
But for me, Italy have been more effective in their attempt at expansive rugby.
They made a fair few line breaks against us before we finally put them away. Mind you it was more to do with us defending narrow and not expecting them to spin it wide.
Scotland made 1 in the first half, and besides their try a big fat 0 in the second. They are so lateral in attack and defense. They pass to the last guy and he goes back the other way and on and on. looks great for about 5 mins, then u realize they are going nowhere.
All we needed to do was make a couple of passes get a runner coming in at an angle and straighten the line, and were sliced them up. Nothing fancy at all. But they never even once tried to straighten the line. Its naive rugby they are playing.
posted on 14/3/12
You really think so? I thought Scotland were looking proficient at breaking the gain line, even with their new-looking very deep lined offensive system. They're managing to flank the rush defenses or have guys running into the dog legs that appear. I thought it was an interesting approach. The exact opposite of the Wallaby flat attack.
The problem for Scotland seems to be that with the ball carriers aligned so deep, the distances for the loose forwards to cover to support the tackle is too great and they are making a break, becoming isolated and then being turned over easily.
Italy by contrast seem to be pedestrian and laboured when they try to go wide. And they have a definite lack of pace to take advantage of broken defense when they get over the gain line. Scramling defense is cutting them down too easily.
I'd back Scotland to win this one comfortably if they can sort out whatever is wrong with their scrum. They seem to have gone from having one of the best set pieces to one of the worst. They're also struggling defensively with so many guys picked for guile and pace, they lack a brick wall outside of their decent back row.
posted on 14/3/12
Hmm tough one, I will try to keep my forecasts more realistic this week.
Will the Scots finally click?
Scotland by 10