Let the games begin!

I think Murray will at least get to the semis again- I think he has no worries about holding onto 4

I actually tend to agree. He certainly has no immediate worries about #4 and he has done quite well here the last few years. A lot has been made of his difficult looking early round opponents but I actually think his draw is not quite as bad as it looks - not many of those players should have a realistic chance of beating him if he plays well.

If he gets Nadal in the SF then it is the same old again - he has a chance in my opinion but has found it hard going againt Rafa in slams lately.

It might be more interesting if say Tsonga produces an inspired QF performance to take out Rafa and then maybe not quite so inspired performance against Andy. If that happens, who knows - maybe Andy could win it all?

Great post SB as usual, 5 stars . But some mindless trolls will always be around who could no better than giving a 1 star to such a good post.


Murray's place is not that threatened at the moment, but the gap is definitely looking like closing in. For the year 2012 points, Murray is not sitting comfortably at #4.

thing is though is this murray's year by year characteristic in regards to points-

he does well at the aussie, to the extent that he isnt far off no3 on points- then he slacks off quite alarmingly- he seldom does well in the spring US hardcourt season- and in regards to clay, he is still yet to reach a final on the surface in a tournament...

he tends to do average at the French...and by this point it looks like 5-8 arent far behind him (its also at this point in the year when murray gets the most stick)...

however, normally strong performances at wimbledon and during the US hard court series secure 4th comfortably and put him breathing down Fed's neck for no3...

and then if he gets to the semis at least of the US open...and retains his indoor trophies and is able to actually play in the world tour finals....

there is a chance he'll be no3 by december...although probably still slam-less mind

If Federer plays like he was playing before RG then he is at least reaching finals as I am not sure if he has the mental tenacity to beat nadull.

I am hoping for Delpo, Tsonga, Dodid or Kohli to do a big favour to mankind.

i much prefer fed and murray to nadull and djokeless...

i much prefer fed and murray to nadull and djokeless...
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Djoker still plays graceful tennis but nadull at times is awful. Just grinding and retrieving.

Nice post SB!, it seems that Fed is in a real good position to take no. 2 position.

I am hoping for Delpo, Tsonga, Dodid or Kohli to do a big favour to mankind.

I think Murray will struggle this year. He doesn;t seem very fit and he will have to move fast on grass. I am very surprise by SB post on the other thread which says Nadal has the toughest draw.

Murray has by far the toughest. And his mouvement is going to be exposed if he has a niggle.

Interstesting to see that Nadal has got to do well to stay ahead of Federer.

Tenez wrote:

I am very surprise by SB post on the other thread which says Nadal has the toughest draw.

Murray has by far the toughest.
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Murray's is by no means easy and I recognize most people would likely say it is harder than Rafa's. My rationale comparing the top 4 is roughly as follows:

Even though not quite as extreme as NITB who I think said she only looked at draws from QF onwards, I also tend to give significantly more weight to QF opponents - simply because they are harder. If you say have a 99% chance to win against a qualifier and maybe 98% against someone like Karlovic then even if you string 3-4 Karlovic calibre players together, the odds that you advance through them all are not that bad. A difference between say Tsonga and Tipsarevic in QF could in my eyes easily outweigh those early rounders. So I tend to look separately at QF, and at all the rounds prior to that. I then see:

Fed: easy early rounds, easy QF
Nole: easy early rounds, 2nd hardest QF
Rafa: some tricky early rounders, hardest QF

That sorts these three in my mind. Andy is trickier:

Andy: hardest early rounds, relatively easier QF

How much wieght should I put on the early rounders? In the end, I do not think that any bar Raonic should pose real threat, and Raonic is nothing compared to Tsonga. So I lean towards Nadal's draw as being harder. Not by much though.

I know you said that Tsonga with what you called broken finger would be much weakened. If his injury is really bad then I agree and that would obviously make Nadal's draw easier. As you know though, I tend to be skeptical of injuries. I also did not think the finger was reported broken. So I am inclined to think Tsonga will be fine.

A side-comment: I also think the media has a tendency to exaggerate the importance of early round opponents. From their perspective, the later rounds will bring fans in anyway - plus there is time to talk about them later - but for earlier rounds they need to build up more drama now - so it is natural for them to focus on the difficulty of early rounders even though they are not really likely to cause much trouble.

Some of the comments here are really sad. 'Nadull', 'Djokeless' really?

Anyway to the OP, very nice thread! I agree out of the top 4 Murray has the toughest draw, but that really isnt saying much is it? Davidenko is not the player he used to be, even when he was, he was never great on grass. I think he should make the QF at the very least. If he gets there and meets del potro/ferrer then it could be tough

Expect Federer to make at least the semis, not sure if he will be able to beat Djokovic who i feel has to be odds on to win the whole thing.. As for Nadal, Tsonga on the way is potentially a huge problem for him i think.

All in all, i will favour Djokovic to keep his number 1 status after the tournament..

(U13809):

I agree that Andy's draw is not as hard as commonly preceived (though obviously not exactly easy).

I would even say his QF is not so bad. Neither Delpo nor Ferrer are necessarily best suited to grass (in spite of Ferrer's grass court title today). If Murray were to meet Ferrer here, one would have to assume that he could do far better than at RG.

BTW, thanks for the thread compliment. In all fairness, I should say that there used to be a poster who did these threads on the old 606 so I just pretty much shamelessly copied his idea.

If his injury is really bad then I agree and that would obviously make Nadal's draw easier. As you know though, I tend to be skeptical of injuries.
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I know you don't but that is everything. No-one can win a slam with an injury. Who did Tsonga lose to in Queens? So if you think that player can bring more threat to Tsonga that Nadal, I am even more surprised by your reasoning.

Who do you think are the tricky players for Nadal's first round?

Besides Nadal thinks that teh first week is the toughest cause that's when the grass is fastest. And he has noone with the firepower to trouble him in the first rounds. Even Kholi is injured apparently.
I really can;t see Nadal struggling in that first week. The only one maybe Dolgo but Dolgo has been resting an injury as well. I am not aware of him having played on grass this season.

I would even say his QF is not so bad. Neither Delpo nor Ferrer are necessarily best suited to grass (in spite of Ferrer's grass court title today). If Murray were to meet Ferrer here, one would have to assume that he could do far better than at RG

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Saw Delpo against Nadal last year and i thought he played a really good game which could trouble Murray. I hope Murray wins a slam one day though, at least for the sake of him being consistent enough in GS tournaments and i also like his game.

He needs to improve his attitude though, especially when things arent going his way.. and even when things are going is way, he just lacks the aura that a Nadal, Federer or Djokovic have. Maybe its due to the fact that he hasnt won a GS yet tough but i just feel something has to improve about him (maybe by making his presense more known on court or something)

IMO , it is quite simple, If Fed beats Nole then Nadull will win, if Nole beats Fed then Nole will win.

On current form Murray has no chance but he definitely has the game to win at SW19. Nole is automatic choice whereas Andy will be a pleasant surprise. Nadull will be a catastrophe. Fed's best chance is USO.

13809, pretty much agree, I see it as the mental side of his game, specifically his focus that is lacking at the moment, even when he's winning he can lose it.

If he can fix this I think that is the single biggest thing he could do to improve his game.

TMF wrote:

IMO , it is quite simple, If Fed beats Nole then Nadull will win, if Nole beats Fed then Nole will win.
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Yes, as per usual I think. Which is why getting to #1 will not be all that easy for Fed. He did most of the prep work but will likely need to win a slam to get to #1. He may indeed have to aim to be #2 going to the USO, and hope that he gets a good draw and Nole takes Rafa out for him. But that requires some luck. Overall, at best somewhere around 50/50 chance that Fed will get to #1 at one point. However, I still admire him for getting this close to it - given how well Rafa and Nole have been doing, just the fact that he is within reach is fairly remarkable.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/0/tennis/18564445

Fed sayd titles more important than ranking....he's right.

"Physically, I have no lingering injuries"
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Hopefully Tenez will now stop going on that Federer is injured.

Tenez wrote:

Who do you think are the tricky players for Nadal's first round?
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It depends on what you mean by tricky. I do not think any of the early opponents will cause him a lot of trouble. But that is hardly a surprise for any of the top 4. The last 6 slams they all always made it to the QF at least - that is 96 pre-QF matches that they have won between them since Andy's 3rd round loss to Stan at the 2010 USO. And had it not been for Andy's early round slip-ups, we would have to go back quite a bit further than that.

But if you look at the players in his first 3 rounds and you see Kohli, Haas, and even say Dodig, I think it makes for a reasonably hard early round line-up. Still easy - it is the first three rounds after all - but more quality than what you see in Fed's or Djoker's first three rounds. And in the 4th round - Dolgo, or even Lopez, is about what you can expect.

As I said, top 4 just have not been losing in early rounds. But that is also one more reason for me to give more weight to the QF and Tsonga is in my mind clearly the hardest possible QF given current form and the surface - subject of course to his injury which I am guessing would be just fine by the time they would meet.

Super stuff SB, thanks

May Nole defend his title for many years to come

But if you look at the players in his first 3 rounds and you see Kohli, Haas, and even say Dodig, I think it makes for a reasonably hard early round line-up. Still easy - it is the first three rounds after all - but more quality than what you see in Fed's or Djoker's first three rounds. And in the 4th round - Dolgo, or even Lopez, is about what you can expect.
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I must say I do not see things like you. Kholi or Haas have absolutely no chance. I am convinced Nadal used Kholi (a german) to pull out amicably of Halle and get a rest and refill in Spain. And Haas' run could have been stopped by Kholi or Berdych in Halle and no one would be talking about him today. I doubt he would have gone 3 rounds even if he had not met Nadal. Don't get me wrong I see Kholi and Haas as very talented players but regardless how talented they are they will not be able to handle Nadal's super energetic ball he will bomb them with next week. As said many times you don't fell Nadal with a sharp sword (talent) but with an axe (power/pace)!

Someone like Rao has certainly enough firepower to create a panick feeling to nervous Nadal who can only be beaten by pace. In that respect I do not see Nadal being troubled by anyone in his draw before the 1/4.

And in the 1/4 it will be all about Tsonga but if Tsonga is struggling like he was in Queens, then I really see no-one who can get close to bothering Nadal before the semi.

We shall see. I hope to be wrong of course.

Yes Tenez, i hope your right. Infact, i dont i hope no ones troubles Nadal throughout the tournamnent, but we all know thats not gonna happen