31 friendlies for the Polish side Wigry, just 10 have gone over 2.5.

just seen the utd side

lukaku and mata start.

comment by Prankster (U6283)
posted 6 minutes ago
just seen the utd side

lukaku and mata start.
----------------------------------------------------------------------
You’ll be fine. Lukaku is fine against the crap teams, and Fulham, especially their defence, are pretty poor....

Apollon Limassol v AEL Limassol
Apollon -0.5 @1.85 on Bet365

Tight between the top 3 in Cyprus with APOEL leading the way with 42, AEL 2nd on 41 and Apollon 3rd with 40.

Despite this Apollon have had to contend with 14 Europa League games this season, whilst AEL haven't been involved in UEFA Comps.

Also Apollon have better goal difference +28 vs +11.

Won the h2h meeting 3-0 earlier this season. Meetings before that saw 2 Apollon wins (2-0 and 5-1) and before that four 1-1 draws.

union berlin 1 up

i feel dirty, utd scored and I smiled

comment by Prankster (U6283)
posted 6 seconds ago
i feel dirty, utd scored and I smiled
----------------------------------------------------------------------
Had literally just bet them -1 in play @ 2/1

thinking about cashing out as I've doubled my money and looking at 3pm double

so 3pm options for a double

arsenal, luton, bury, and Forrest green

cashed out and going luton and Forrest green.

Kontich women
2.25 outsiders on Asian Handicap 0.00 at half time (0-0)
1.725 favs on Asian Handicap 0.00 at full time (0-0)

I'm confused

Bet 8

Man United to score anytime @1.1
Dortmund to score anytime @1.05

£85.55 double to win £98.81

——————

Bet 8 WIN

forest green

back in it

Need an orient goal for £65

Bet 10

Basketball Spain

Valencia win @1.13

NCAAB US Basketball

Kansas Win @1.13

£98.81 double wins £125.06

Bet 9

Arsenal to score anytime @1.11
Dinamo Zagreb to win @1.11

£80 double pays £98.77

——————-

Bet 9 WIN

comment by Terminator1 (U1863)
posted about 2 hours ago
Bet 10

Basketball Spain

Valencia win @1.13

NCAAB US Basketball

Kansas Win @1.13

£98.81 double wins £125.06
----------------------------------------------------------------------
Bet 10 LOSE

First loss. Valencia had a last quarter meltdown after leading all game. Fortunately I split the bet earlier, so can carry on......

Bet 11

LIVE!! Basel to score anytime @1.29

Feyenoord to win @1.11

£98.77 double pays £141.10

comment by Terminator1 (U1863)
posted 2 hours, 55 minutes ago
Bet 11

LIVE!! Basel to score anytime @1.29

Feyenoord to win @1.11

£98.77 double pays £141.10
----------------------------------------------------------------------
Bet 11 WIN

Bet 12

Bolivia football
Zamora v Merida - Over 0.5 match goals @1.05

US NCAAB
North Dakota State to win @1.22

£141.1 double pays £181.08

comment by Terminator1 (U1863)
posted 10 hours, 5 minutes ago
Bet 12

Bolivia football
Zamora v Merida - Over 0.5 match goals @1.05

US NCAAB
North Dakota State to win @1.22

£141.1 double pays £181.08
----------------------------------------------------------------------
Bet 12 WIN

Bet 13

Turkish Super League
Konyaspor v Yeni Malatyespor (KO1030) Over 0.5 match goals @1.1

La Liga
Leganes to score anytime @1.33

£90 double pays £132

Term not sure it is of interest but this is the chart of implied probability based on odds.

https://www.aceodds.com/bet-calculator/odds-converter.html

For your doubles if you multiply the probability of each one together eg 0.8 X 0.75

That will give you the probability of your doubles.

If you want to be more accurate. Get your bookmakers vig/margin from this https://www.top100bookmakers.com/profit-margin/soccer.php divide it by three and subtraction it from each percentage probability of your double. It's not exactly split like that but close enough.

0.8-(0.33*vig) * 0.75-(0.33*vig) = real world probability of your bet winning.

---------

If you were feeling interested you could put your first 20 bets probability into Excel then run Monte Carlo simulations to see how often they all come up back to back.

In reality the vig is almost always heavier on longer odds so in some leagues, teams with odds below 1.2 yield a positive return. I have the data somewhere.

From memory, there is an exception in Germany where the long odds home side where the odds are below 2.5 represent value more than the away favourite.