In regard to investment, I suspect the market will continue to fluctuate, and react to political and financial negotiations over the next few years.
However business needs stability, and without the regulatory framework being firmly in place, it’s going to be extremely difficult to grow the economy. CBI (member) and LSE studies stated that many businesses are putting off expansion/investment projects until the regulatory landscape is stable.
In reference to the “shackles of EU tariffs” I was unaware the UK/EU27 had renegotiated any treaties at this stage.
Anyone with any understanding of trade negotiation has stated it will take anything from 5 to 10 years to negotiate, and then ratify a UK/EU FTA. Pascal Lamy, amongst others, (former Director General of the WTO, and probably the foremost authority on world trade) https://www.wto.org/english/thewto_e/dg_e/pl_e.htm has spoken on this on a number of occasions.
The UK will also have to renegotiate existing FTA’s, (which EU membership provides) with 68 other separate countries in isolation. Worth pointing out that Whitehall does not have the necessary resources to do this.
The government has had to beg, borrow, and steal civil servants from across the country in an effort to administer Brexit. And according to the latest information from the HoCs, and HoL select committees, (who have investigated the government’s capability/ competence) they are still woefully understaffed. At last count circa 440 staff in DEexEU.
I believe the government have been able recruit a handful of people with some experience relating to trade negotiation. Mainly from KPMG and Deloitte but (like DEexEU) the UK are inadequately prepared to negotiate a FTA with anyone.
Never mind the EU Commission – 26,000 strong, which has amassed the best and most experienced trade negotiators available over the last 60 years.
If by some miracle the UK does enter a FTA with the EU during a50 negotiations, it’s extremely likely the government will have to renegotiate (at the e27’s discretion) at a later date, as history has shown quick trade deals, (of comparable size) have been economically disastrous.
So while any perceived long term benefits remain at best unknown, the short to medium term “pain” is going to be very real for a lot of people and businesses.
comment by Gingernuts (U2992)
posted 34 minutes ago
There will still be freedom of movement as such. Controls may be tighter but anyone with a valid reason to travel and study or work will still be able to do so.
To suggest otherwise is scaremongering. Again.
----------------------------------------------------------------------
You think that the Government will attempt to negotiate an agreement that would allow every EU citizen "with a valid reason to travel and study or work" to move freely to the UK?
There would be a public meltdown. The editors of the Mail and Express would be inciting pyre-building around the exterior walls of Parliament.
Yes I do albeit with tighter controls.
comment by Gingernuts (U2992)
posted 6 minutes ago
Yes I do albeit with tighter controls.
----------------------------------------------------------------------
And how does that sit against the wishes of the third of Leave voters who said that curbing immigration was their most important motivation in voting to exit the EU, and the further half of Leave voters who said the same factor contributed to their decision?
I think the ‘out’ that may appease some in regard to migration is to remove students from migration figures. Which have been grossly misreported for years.
The removal of students from ONS figures might see a reduction of anything between 10/15%.
But any future deal with the EU will have to be bilateral/reciprocal. However as the UK looks to set up FTA’s across the globe, the Home Office will have to relax border controls.
Increase of work and travel visas form part of most FTA’s. And given the UK’s ‘unenthusiastic’ approach to FoM, you can be sure partners will use this as leverage during trade negotiations.
Non EU immigration is therefore likely to increase in the years to come.
Free from the many absurd shackles of the EU as well as not having to pay billions of our own money into it every year to keep it afloat. Good. It's only a matter of time before the EU collapses after other member states leave as well, it was never a sustainable concept.
comment by blueinbarca (U3426)
posted 2 hours, 53 minutes ago
I lived and worked all over Europe in the late eighties and early nineties and guess what?It was no problem at all before this EU nonsense you are all being sold a pup I'm afraid.
To work in Spain you just needed a 'Residencia' or residence permit and you still need one today to buy a property in Spain,wake up and smell the coffee please!
--------------------------------------------------------------------
So getting the 'residencia' or equivalent isn't a hassle?
Not scaremongering, just a retrograde step.
Bought and sold houses in France and Spain and it was relatively easy, talking to those from non eu countries they had extra hurdles to jump. Not insurmountable hurdles but hassles.
comment by rossobianchi #EquipaLulaDaAlegria (U17054)
posted 1 hour, 47 minutes ago
comment by Gingernuts (U2992)
posted 6 minutes ago
Yes I do albeit with tighter controls.
----------------------------------------------------------------------
And how does that sit against the wishes of the third of Leave voters who said that curbing immigration was their most important motivation in voting to exit the EU, and the further half of Leave voters who said the same factor contributed to their decision?
----------------------------------------------------------------------
No idea but as ever there will have to be compromise.
comment by Hector (U3606)
posted 15 minutes ago
comment by blueinbarca (U3426)
posted 2 hours, 53 minutes ago
I lived and worked all over Europe in the late eighties and early nineties and guess what?It was no problem at all before this EU nonsense you are all being sold a pup I'm afraid.
To work in Spain you just needed a 'Residencia' or residence permit and you still need one today to buy a property in Spain,wake up and smell the coffee please!
--------------------------------------------------------------------
So getting the 'residencia' or equivalent isn't a hassle?
Not scaremongering, just a retrograde step.
Bought and sold houses in France and Spain and it was relatively easy, talking to those from non eu countries they had extra hurdles to jump. Not insurmountable hurdles but hassles.
----------------------------------------------------------------------
Britain joined the EU in 1973...
Also as Hector said, it has never been insurmontable. European people can go and move to Canada/US and apply for jobs and all that. But it is surely much more easier to move within the UK than to get a green card or any equivalent.
comment by IAWT... not anymore. (U10012)
posted 4 hours, 8 minutes ago
comment by Hector (U3606)
posted 15 minutes ago
comment by blueinbarca (U3426)
posted 2 hours, 53 minutes ago
I lived and worked all over Europe in the late eighties and early nineties and guess what?It was no problem at all before this EU nonsense you are all being sold a pup I'm afraid.
To work in Spain you just needed a 'Residencia' or residence permit and you still need one today to buy a property in Spain,wake up and smell the coffee please!
--------------------------------------------------------------------
So getting the 'residencia' or equivalent isn't a hassle?
Not scaremongering, just a retrograde step.
Bought and sold houses in France and Spain and it was relatively easy, talking to those from non eu countries they had extra hurdles to jump. Not insurmountable hurdles but hassles.
----------------------------------------------------------------------
Britain joined the EU in 1973...
Also as Hector said, it has never been insurmontable. European people can go and move to Canada/US and apply for jobs and all that. But it is surely much more easier to move within the UK than to get a green card or any equivalent.
------------------------------------------------------------------------
You seem to be spectacularly missing the point here,which was that you STILL needed a residencia to work,despite us all being told that everyone in the EU had the same rights,of course Spanish locals didn't need a residencia to live and work in their own country!
And are you trying to tell me that no British citizens lived or worked in Spain before 1973?Utter nonsense!
comment by 8bit (U2653)
posted 1 day, 11 hours ago
https://www.ft.com/content/b9967120-e1ae-3b7a-af2d-180caebd5afd
Borrowing is lowest for the last 10 years since the financial crisis, if it's predicted to shrink a lot more in the next few years that can only be a positive? I don't know if it's anything to do with Brexit or just the economy improving since the crash.
----------------------------------------------------------------------
Where do you think money comes from to pay for our health service, schools, defense, government, infrastructure, etc?
comment by Superb (U6486)
posted 12 hours, 17 minutes ago
Free from the many absurd shackles of the EU as well as not having to pay billions of our own money into it every year to keep it afloat. Good. It's only a matter of time before the EU collapses after other member states leave as well, it was never a sustainable concept.
----------------------------------------------------------------------
Care to quantify this at all or are you just good with some regurgitated rhetoric?
What are these so called shackles? What is the exact financial detriment to the UK from being in the EU?
comment by blueinbarca (U3426)
posted 17 hours, 3 minutes ago
comment by IAWT... not anymore. (U10012)
posted 4 hours, 8 minutes ago
comment by Hector (U3606)
posted 15 minutes ago
comment by blueinbarca (U3426)
posted 2 hours, 53 minutes ago
I lived and worked all over Europe in the late eighties and early nineties and guess what?It was no problem at all before this EU nonsense you are all being sold a pup I'm afraid.
To work in Spain you just needed a 'Residencia' or residence permit and you still need one today to buy a property in Spain,wake up and smell the coffee please!
--------------------------------------------------------------------
So getting the 'residencia' or equivalent isn't a hassle?
Not scaremongering, just a retrograde step.
Bought and sold houses in France and Spain and it was relatively easy, talking to those from non eu countries they had extra hurdles to jump. Not insurmountable hurdles but hassles.
----------------------------------------------------------------------
Britain joined the EU in 1973...
Also as Hector said, it has never been insurmontable. European people can go and move to Canada/US and apply for jobs and all that. But it is surely much more easier to move within the UK than to get a green card or any equivalent.
------------------------------------------------------------------------
You seem to be spectacularly missing the point here,which was that you STILL needed a residencia to work,despite us all being told that everyone in the EU had the same rights,of course Spanish locals didn't need a residencia to live and work in their own country!
And are you trying to tell me that no British citizens lived or worked in Spain before 1973?Utter nonsense!
----------------------------------------------------------------------
WOW.... feckin hell
<i>From 28 March 2007, Royal Decree 240/07 requires that all EU citizens planning to reside in Spain for more than 3 months should register in person at the Oficina de Extranjeros in their province of residence or at designated Police stations. You will be issued a credit card size Residence Certificate stating your name, address, nationality, NIE number (Número de Identificación Extranjero) and date of registration. After five years residence registration you are entitled to apply for a certificate of permanent residence in Spain.</i>
This is from the UK Gov page and this is what you'd need to do if you were to get a residencia. You just have to go there and register. The same way that anyone from the EU will have to go to a job centre and register if they want to work in the UK.
Now, you might want to ask anyone from outside the EU what are the procedures for them to work in the UK.
First in some cases, they are not even allow in the country until they have provided proof of employment (the offer from the company), sponsorship from the company itself and at least 2-3 years of bank statement to prove that they have enough money in their account.
If you think those two procedures are similar, then you might want to fasten your sealbelts because it might get bumpy as It is not inconceivable to think that once the UK leave the EU, those will also be applicable to EU citizens moving here and the UK citizens will have to do the same when moving abroad.
comment by If anyone can, Emre Can... Britain just failed its IQ Test. (U3979)
posted 11 hours, 30 minutes ago
comment by 8bit (U2653)
posted 1 day, 11 hours ago
https://www.ft.com/content/b9967120-e1ae-3b7a-af2d-180caebd5afd
Borrowing is lowest for the last 10 years since the financial crisis, if it's predicted to shrink a lot more in the next few years that can only be a positive? I don't know if it's anything to do with Brexit or just the economy improving since the crash.
----------------------------------------------------------------------
Where do you think money comes from to pay for our health service, schools, defense, government, infrastructure, etc?
----------------------------------------------------------------------
Not sure what you mean, we're forecast to borrow less money when we're out of the EU then we were when we were in it.
comment by 8bit (U2653)
posted 9 minutes ago
comment by If anyone can, Emre Can... Britain just failed its IQ Test. (U3979)
posted 11 hours, 30 minutes ago
comment by 8bit (U2653)
posted 1 day, 11 hours ago
https://www.ft.com/content/b9967120-e1ae-3b7a-af2d-180caebd5afd
Borrowing is lowest for the last 10 years since the financial crisis, if it's predicted to shrink a lot more in the next few years that can only be a positive? I don't know if it's anything to do with Brexit or just the economy improving since the crash.
----------------------------------------------------------------------
Where do you think money comes from to pay for our health service, schools, defense, government, infrastructure, etc?
----------------------------------------------------------------------
Not sure what you mean, we're forecast to borrow less money when we're out of the EU then we were when we were in it.
----------------------------------------------------------------------
From 2020 onwards OBR forecasts are basically a 'punt' as the government have not yet provided them with their post Brexit economic plan.
Given the extra resources that will be required for implementing the type Brexit the government is pushing for, short to medium term borrowing will be revised in 2018, 2019 and again in 2020.
Worth noting an already stretched public sector will have to manage a host of functions the Commission have provided the UK with for the last 40 years.
The UK will have to radically upscale it’s civil service. This has yet to be costed. Nor has the cost of leaving the customs union, and a host of EU bodies that the UK are leaving. Euratom a significant, and unnecessary risk.
The OBR also has not costed additional Home Office/DWP resources to deal with new migration requirements.
Significantly upscaling and specialising the international trade department.
Implementing new industry regulatory and governance structures.
Offsetting the loss of EU bloc grants to local councils and the devolved executives post 2020.
Offsetting the loss of EU CAP farming grants.
Drastically upscaling UK Ports and HMRC / customs checks. Border controls, I could go on…
In short any notion that the UK will have to borrow less, or will be financially better off post Brexit is a fantasy.
comment by IAWT... not anymore. (U10012)
posted 9 hours, 15 minutes ago
comment by blueinbarca (U3426)
posted 17 hours, 3 minutes ago
comment by IAWT... not anymore. (U10012)
posted 4 hours, 8 minutes ago
comment by Hector (U3606)
posted 15 minutes ago
comment by blueinbarca (U3426)
posted 2 hours, 53 minutes ago
I lived and worked all over Europe in the late eighties and early nineties and guess what?It was no problem at all before this EU nonsense you are all being sold a pup I'm afraid.
To work in Spain you just needed a 'Residencia' or residence permit and you still need one today to buy a property in Spain,wake up and smell the coffee please!
--------------------------------------------------------------------
So getting the 'residencia' or equivalent isn't a hassle?
Not scaremongering, just a retrograde step.
Bought and sold houses in France and Spain and it was relatively easy, talking to those from non eu countries they had extra hurdles to jump. Not insurmountable hurdles but hassles.
----------------------------------------------------------------------
Britain joined the EU in 1973...
Also as Hector said, it has never been insurmontable. European people can go and move to Canada/US and apply for jobs and all that. But it is surely much more easier to move within the UK than to get a green card or any equivalent.
------------------------------------------------------------------------
You seem to be spectacularly missing the point here,which was that you STILL needed a residencia to work,despite us all being told that everyone in the EU had the same rights,of course Spanish locals didn't need a residencia to live and work in their own country!
And are you trying to tell me that no British citizens lived or worked in Spain before 1973?Utter nonsense!
----------------------------------------------------------------------
WOW.... feckin hell
<i>From 28 March 2007, Royal Decree 240/07 requires that all EU citizens planning to reside in Spain for more than 3 months should register in person at the Oficina de Extranjeros in their province of residence or at designated Police stations. You will be issued a credit card size Residence Certificate stating your name, address, nationality, NIE number (Número de Identificación Extranjero) and date of registration. After five years residence registration you are entitled to apply for a certificate of permanent residence in Spain.</i>
This is from the UK Gov page and this is what you'd need to do if you were to get a residencia. You just have to go there and register. The same way that anyone from the EU will have to go to a job centre and register if they want to work in the UK.
Now, you might want to ask anyone from outside the EU what are the procedures for them to work in the UK.
First in some cases, they are not even allow in the country until they have provided proof of employment (the offer from the company), sponsorship from the company itself and at least 2-3 years of bank statement to prove that they have enough money in their account.
If you think those two procedures are similar, then you might want to fasten your sealbelts because it might get bumpy as It is not inconceivable to think that once the UK leave the EU, those will also be applicable to EU citizens moving here and the UK citizens will have to do the same when moving abroad.
-------------------------------------------------------------------------
Actually not true but no surprise from the UK government website talking utter carp,you actually have to go to the local Police Station to collect your Residencia and they do the appropriate checks on you before you arrive there.
Then you go to the 'Foreigner's Office'/Oficina de Extranjeros to fill in more paperwork and queue up for hours with dodgy looking Middle Easten types and Africans!
Besides the Residencia and NIE there is also a NIF or
Número de Identificación Fiscal that you need as well that if I remember relates to taxes.
I know as I did it all in Barcelona over ten years ago now and it was a complete pain in the backside and a joke as it wasn't supposed to be necessary.
Seeing as we were all,one big happy family under the iron hand of Druncker,Mutti Merk-Hell,Tusk,Schmidt and all the other Euromuppets!
comment by What would Stuart Pearce do? (U3126)
posted 8 hours, 27 minutes ago
comment by 8bit (U2653)
posted 9 minutes ago
comment by If anyone can, Emre Can... Britain just failed its IQ Test. (U3979)
posted 11 hours, 30 minutes ago
comment by 8bit (U2653)
posted 1 day, 11 hours ago
https://www.ft.com/content/b9967120-e1ae-3b7a-af2d-180caebd5afd
Borrowing is lowest for the last 10 years since the financial crisis, if it's predicted to shrink a lot more in the next few years that can only be a positive? I don't know if it's anything to do with Brexit or just the economy improving since the crash.
----------------------------------------------------------------------
Where do you think money comes from to pay for our health service, schools, defense, government, infrastructure, etc?
----------------------------------------------------------------------
Not sure what you mean, we're forecast to borrow less money when we're out of the EU then we were when we were in it.
----------------------------------------------------------------------
From 2020 onwards OBR forecasts are basically a 'punt' as the government have not yet provided them with their post Brexit economic plan.
Given the extra resources that will be required for implementing the type Brexit the government is pushing for, short to medium term borrowing will be revised in 2018, 2019 and again in 2020.
Worth noting an already stretched public sector will have to manage a host of functions the Commission have provided the UK with for the last 40 years.
The UK will have to radically upscale it’s civil service. This has yet to be costed. Nor has the cost of leaving the customs union, and a host of EU bodies that the UK are leaving. Euratom a significant, and unnecessary risk.
The OBR also has not costed additional Home Office/DWP resources to deal with new migration requirements.
Significantly upscaling and specialising the international trade department.
Implementing new industry regulatory and governance structures.
Offsetting the loss of EU bloc grants to local councils and the devolved executives post 2020.
Offsetting the loss of EU CAP farming grants.
Drastically upscaling UK Ports and HMRC / customs checks. Border controls, I could go on…
In short any notion that the UK will have to borrow less, or will be financially better off post Brexit is a fantasy.
-------------------------------------------------------------------------
You see again you are being sold a pup here,the fact is that if we've been run for so long,our laws created,trade deals negotiated and civil service duties all performed from Brussels that what the Hell have our very own,lazy politicians been up to during that time?
Of course the answer is very little and getting paid very handsomely for it,now it's time to put the layabouts BACK to work doing the jobs they should have been doing in the first place.
So no extra staff needed whatsoever,just actually start doing the work that you been paid to do for decades now but in reality have done sweet FA!
comment by blueinbarca (U3426)
posted 23 minutes ago
comment by What would Stuart Pearce do? (U3126)
posted 8 hours, 27 minutes ago
comment by 8bit (U2653)
posted 9 minutes ago
comment by If anyone can, Emre Can... Britain just failed its IQ Test. (U3979)
posted 11 hours, 30 minutes ago
comment by 8bit (U2653)
posted 1 day, 11 hours ago
https://www.ft.com/content/b9967120-e1ae-3b7a-af2d-180caebd5afd
Borrowing is lowest for the last 10 years since the financial crisis, if it's predicted to shrink a lot more in the next few years that can only be a positive? I don't know if it's anything to do with Brexit or just the economy improving since the crash.
----------------------------------------------------------------------
Where do you think money comes from to pay for our health service, schools, defense, government, infrastructure, etc?
----------------------------------------------------------------------
Not sure what you mean, we're forecast to borrow less money when we're out of the EU then we were when we were in it.
----------------------------------------------------------------------
From 2020 onwards OBR forecasts are basically a 'punt' as the government have not yet provided them with their post Brexit economic plan.
Given the extra resources that will be required for implementing the type Brexit the government is pushing for, short to medium term borrowing will be revised in 2018, 2019 and again in 2020.
Worth noting an already stretched public sector will have to manage a host of functions the Commission have provided the UK with for the last 40 years.
The UK will have to radically upscale it’s civil service. This has yet to be costed. Nor has the cost of leaving the customs union, and a host of EU bodies that the UK are leaving. Euratom a significant, and unnecessary risk.
The OBR also has not costed additional Home Office/DWP resources to deal with new migration requirements.
Significantly upscaling and specialising the international trade department.
Implementing new industry regulatory and governance structures.
Offsetting the loss of EU bloc grants to local councils and the devolved executives post 2020.
Offsetting the loss of EU CAP farming grants.
Drastically upscaling UK Ports and HMRC / customs checks. Border controls, I could go on…
In short any notion that the UK will have to borrow less, or will be financially better off post Brexit is a fantasy.
-------------------------------------------------------------------------
You see again you are being sold a pup here,the fact is that if we've been run for so long,our laws created,trade deals negotiated and civil service duties all performed from Brussels that what the Hell have our very own,lazy politicians been up to during that time?
Of course the answer is very little and getting paid very handsomely for it,now it's time to put the layabouts BACK to work doing the jobs they should have been doing in the first place.
So no extra staff needed whatsoever,just actually start doing the work that you been paid to do for decades now but in reality have done sweet FA!
----------------------------------------------------------------------
Are you on drugs?
Leaving the Customs Union is potentially going to have huge ramifications for UK businesses with any sort of dependency on the European market, depending on the deal struck with the EU. It's certainly going to impact consumer choice and consumer experience, and hit exports.
An example: My wife's small business, which we migrated from the UK to Portugal when we emigrated, imports super high quality materials which are used to construct clothing. She sources probably 70% of her materials by cost within the EU, and more than half of that from the UK.
Previously she has used more suppliers outside the EU; in, for example, Canada. But the customs hassles and charges applied by the authorities in the UK and then in Portugal, coupled with the delays and associated impact on her productivity, left her looking for alternative suppliers within the EU.
If the UK ends up outside the Customs Union and falling back on WTO rules and my wife sees the same hassles importing to Portugal from the UK that she's seen with Canada, she'll have to dump her UK suppliers in favour of manufacturers elsewhere in Europe.
rossobianchi
Read a few pieces in regard to the customs union, and its a minefield. Country of origin checks etc alone will require considerable resources.
Government have yet to even begin costing how much, and the number of staff (House of Lords estimate thousands) it is going to take.
In regard to WTO, before the UK can apply for ascension (as a sovereign nation) will firstly have to extract trading schedules (covering goods and services) from EU.
Depending on who you listen to, could take anything from two, to five years to complete. Assuming all 164 WTO members ratify without dispute.
So when the CBI and other industry bodies talk about a cliff edge, they're not scaremongering.
I think if it does - and anyone with even a basic understanding of what it'll mean will hope it doesn't - come to falling back on WTO rules, the Organisation and its member states will want to fast track UK ascension.
I don't think that's likely in itself to be too much of an issue.
The much, much bigger issue is how badly, relatively speaking, WTO membership would impact UK business's competitiveness, and how badly shafted the UK is going to be when it is desperately trying to negotiate bilateral trade deals as quickly as it possibly can with literally zero experience of doing the same.
rossobianchi
Will have to be quick but the EU, and EU27 are all WTO members in their own right.
The WTO dispute resolution system is extremely convoluted, and unless the government ignore all advice, and plough on regardless, I would be amazed if it's even an option they're considering.
Recent commons select, and House of lords committees called out the government to abandon this option. Suspect, much like recent comments from Barnier, basically more public posturing/grandstanding!
Til tomorrow
Sign in if you want to comment
Brexit is coming...
Page 4 of 4
posted on 22/3/17
In regard to investment, I suspect the market will continue to fluctuate, and react to political and financial negotiations over the next few years.
However business needs stability, and without the regulatory framework being firmly in place, it’s going to be extremely difficult to grow the economy. CBI (member) and LSE studies stated that many businesses are putting off expansion/investment projects until the regulatory landscape is stable.
In reference to the “shackles of EU tariffs” I was unaware the UK/EU27 had renegotiated any treaties at this stage.
Anyone with any understanding of trade negotiation has stated it will take anything from 5 to 10 years to negotiate, and then ratify a UK/EU FTA. Pascal Lamy, amongst others, (former Director General of the WTO, and probably the foremost authority on world trade) https://www.wto.org/english/thewto_e/dg_e/pl_e.htm has spoken on this on a number of occasions.
The UK will also have to renegotiate existing FTA’s, (which EU membership provides) with 68 other separate countries in isolation. Worth pointing out that Whitehall does not have the necessary resources to do this.
The government has had to beg, borrow, and steal civil servants from across the country in an effort to administer Brexit. And according to the latest information from the HoCs, and HoL select committees, (who have investigated the government’s capability/ competence) they are still woefully understaffed. At last count circa 440 staff in DEexEU.
I believe the government have been able recruit a handful of people with some experience relating to trade negotiation. Mainly from KPMG and Deloitte but (like DEexEU) the UK are inadequately prepared to negotiate a FTA with anyone.
Never mind the EU Commission – 26,000 strong, which has amassed the best and most experienced trade negotiators available over the last 60 years.
If by some miracle the UK does enter a FTA with the EU during a50 negotiations, it’s extremely likely the government will have to renegotiate (at the e27’s discretion) at a later date, as history has shown quick trade deals, (of comparable size) have been economically disastrous.
So while any perceived long term benefits remain at best unknown, the short to medium term “pain” is going to be very real for a lot of people and businesses.
posted on 22/3/17
comment by Gingernuts (U2992)
posted 34 minutes ago
There will still be freedom of movement as such. Controls may be tighter but anyone with a valid reason to travel and study or work will still be able to do so.
To suggest otherwise is scaremongering. Again.
----------------------------------------------------------------------
You think that the Government will attempt to negotiate an agreement that would allow every EU citizen "with a valid reason to travel and study or work" to move freely to the UK?
There would be a public meltdown. The editors of the Mail and Express would be inciting pyre-building around the exterior walls of Parliament.
posted on 22/3/17
Yes I do albeit with tighter controls.
posted on 22/3/17
comment by Gingernuts (U2992)
posted 6 minutes ago
Yes I do albeit with tighter controls.
----------------------------------------------------------------------
And how does that sit against the wishes of the third of Leave voters who said that curbing immigration was their most important motivation in voting to exit the EU, and the further half of Leave voters who said the same factor contributed to their decision?
posted on 22/3/17
I think the ‘out’ that may appease some in regard to migration is to remove students from migration figures. Which have been grossly misreported for years.
The removal of students from ONS figures might see a reduction of anything between 10/15%.
But any future deal with the EU will have to be bilateral/reciprocal. However as the UK looks to set up FTA’s across the globe, the Home Office will have to relax border controls.
Increase of work and travel visas form part of most FTA’s. And given the UK’s ‘unenthusiastic’ approach to FoM, you can be sure partners will use this as leverage during trade negotiations.
Non EU immigration is therefore likely to increase in the years to come.
posted on 22/3/17
Free from the many absurd shackles of the EU as well as not having to pay billions of our own money into it every year to keep it afloat. Good. It's only a matter of time before the EU collapses after other member states leave as well, it was never a sustainable concept.
posted on 22/3/17
posted on 22/3/17
comment by blueinbarca (U3426)
posted 2 hours, 53 minutes ago
I lived and worked all over Europe in the late eighties and early nineties and guess what?It was no problem at all before this EU nonsense you are all being sold a pup I'm afraid.
To work in Spain you just needed a 'Residencia' or residence permit and you still need one today to buy a property in Spain,wake up and smell the coffee please!
--------------------------------------------------------------------
So getting the 'residencia' or equivalent isn't a hassle?
Not scaremongering, just a retrograde step.
Bought and sold houses in France and Spain and it was relatively easy, talking to those from non eu countries they had extra hurdles to jump. Not insurmountable hurdles but hassles.
posted on 22/3/17
comment by rossobianchi #EquipaLulaDaAlegria (U17054)
posted 1 hour, 47 minutes ago
comment by Gingernuts (U2992)
posted 6 minutes ago
Yes I do albeit with tighter controls.
----------------------------------------------------------------------
And how does that sit against the wishes of the third of Leave voters who said that curbing immigration was their most important motivation in voting to exit the EU, and the further half of Leave voters who said the same factor contributed to their decision?
----------------------------------------------------------------------
No idea but as ever there will have to be compromise.
posted on 22/3/17
comment by Hector (U3606)
posted 15 minutes ago
comment by blueinbarca (U3426)
posted 2 hours, 53 minutes ago
I lived and worked all over Europe in the late eighties and early nineties and guess what?It was no problem at all before this EU nonsense you are all being sold a pup I'm afraid.
To work in Spain you just needed a 'Residencia' or residence permit and you still need one today to buy a property in Spain,wake up and smell the coffee please!
--------------------------------------------------------------------
So getting the 'residencia' or equivalent isn't a hassle?
Not scaremongering, just a retrograde step.
Bought and sold houses in France and Spain and it was relatively easy, talking to those from non eu countries they had extra hurdles to jump. Not insurmountable hurdles but hassles.
----------------------------------------------------------------------
Britain joined the EU in 1973...
Also as Hector said, it has never been insurmontable. European people can go and move to Canada/US and apply for jobs and all that. But it is surely much more easier to move within the UK than to get a green card or any equivalent.
posted on 22/3/17
comment by IAWT... not anymore. (U10012)
posted 4 hours, 8 minutes ago
comment by Hector (U3606)
posted 15 minutes ago
comment by blueinbarca (U3426)
posted 2 hours, 53 minutes ago
I lived and worked all over Europe in the late eighties and early nineties and guess what?It was no problem at all before this EU nonsense you are all being sold a pup I'm afraid.
To work in Spain you just needed a 'Residencia' or residence permit and you still need one today to buy a property in Spain,wake up and smell the coffee please!
--------------------------------------------------------------------
So getting the 'residencia' or equivalent isn't a hassle?
Not scaremongering, just a retrograde step.
Bought and sold houses in France and Spain and it was relatively easy, talking to those from non eu countries they had extra hurdles to jump. Not insurmountable hurdles but hassles.
----------------------------------------------------------------------
Britain joined the EU in 1973...
Also as Hector said, it has never been insurmontable. European people can go and move to Canada/US and apply for jobs and all that. But it is surely much more easier to move within the UK than to get a green card or any equivalent.
------------------------------------------------------------------------
You seem to be spectacularly missing the point here,which was that you STILL needed a residencia to work,despite us all being told that everyone in the EU had the same rights,of course Spanish locals didn't need a residencia to live and work in their own country!
And are you trying to tell me that no British citizens lived or worked in Spain before 1973?Utter nonsense!
posted on 22/3/17
comment by 8bit (U2653)
posted 1 day, 11 hours ago
https://www.ft.com/content/b9967120-e1ae-3b7a-af2d-180caebd5afd
Borrowing is lowest for the last 10 years since the financial crisis, if it's predicted to shrink a lot more in the next few years that can only be a positive? I don't know if it's anything to do with Brexit or just the economy improving since the crash.
----------------------------------------------------------------------
Where do you think money comes from to pay for our health service, schools, defense, government, infrastructure, etc?
posted on 22/3/17
comment by Superb (U6486)
posted 12 hours, 17 minutes ago
Free from the many absurd shackles of the EU as well as not having to pay billions of our own money into it every year to keep it afloat. Good. It's only a matter of time before the EU collapses after other member states leave as well, it was never a sustainable concept.
----------------------------------------------------------------------
Care to quantify this at all or are you just good with some regurgitated rhetoric?
What are these so called shackles? What is the exact financial detriment to the UK from being in the EU?
posted on 23/3/17
comment by blueinbarca (U3426)
posted 17 hours, 3 minutes ago
comment by IAWT... not anymore. (U10012)
posted 4 hours, 8 minutes ago
comment by Hector (U3606)
posted 15 minutes ago
comment by blueinbarca (U3426)
posted 2 hours, 53 minutes ago
I lived and worked all over Europe in the late eighties and early nineties and guess what?It was no problem at all before this EU nonsense you are all being sold a pup I'm afraid.
To work in Spain you just needed a 'Residencia' or residence permit and you still need one today to buy a property in Spain,wake up and smell the coffee please!
--------------------------------------------------------------------
So getting the 'residencia' or equivalent isn't a hassle?
Not scaremongering, just a retrograde step.
Bought and sold houses in France and Spain and it was relatively easy, talking to those from non eu countries they had extra hurdles to jump. Not insurmountable hurdles but hassles.
----------------------------------------------------------------------
Britain joined the EU in 1973...
Also as Hector said, it has never been insurmontable. European people can go and move to Canada/US and apply for jobs and all that. But it is surely much more easier to move within the UK than to get a green card or any equivalent.
------------------------------------------------------------------------
You seem to be spectacularly missing the point here,which was that you STILL needed a residencia to work,despite us all being told that everyone in the EU had the same rights,of course Spanish locals didn't need a residencia to live and work in their own country!
And are you trying to tell me that no British citizens lived or worked in Spain before 1973?Utter nonsense!
----------------------------------------------------------------------
WOW.... feckin hell
<i>From 28 March 2007, Royal Decree 240/07 requires that all EU citizens planning to reside in Spain for more than 3 months should register in person at the Oficina de Extranjeros in their province of residence or at designated Police stations. You will be issued a credit card size Residence Certificate stating your name, address, nationality, NIE number (Número de Identificación Extranjero) and date of registration. After five years residence registration you are entitled to apply for a certificate of permanent residence in Spain.</i>
This is from the UK Gov page and this is what you'd need to do if you were to get a residencia. You just have to go there and register. The same way that anyone from the EU will have to go to a job centre and register if they want to work in the UK.
Now, you might want to ask anyone from outside the EU what are the procedures for them to work in the UK.
First in some cases, they are not even allow in the country until they have provided proof of employment (the offer from the company), sponsorship from the company itself and at least 2-3 years of bank statement to prove that they have enough money in their account.
If you think those two procedures are similar, then you might want to fasten your sealbelts because it might get bumpy as It is not inconceivable to think that once the UK leave the EU, those will also be applicable to EU citizens moving here and the UK citizens will have to do the same when moving abroad.
posted on 23/3/17
comment by If anyone can, Emre Can... Britain just failed its IQ Test. (U3979)
posted 11 hours, 30 minutes ago
comment by 8bit (U2653)
posted 1 day, 11 hours ago
https://www.ft.com/content/b9967120-e1ae-3b7a-af2d-180caebd5afd
Borrowing is lowest for the last 10 years since the financial crisis, if it's predicted to shrink a lot more in the next few years that can only be a positive? I don't know if it's anything to do with Brexit or just the economy improving since the crash.
----------------------------------------------------------------------
Where do you think money comes from to pay for our health service, schools, defense, government, infrastructure, etc?
----------------------------------------------------------------------
Not sure what you mean, we're forecast to borrow less money when we're out of the EU then we were when we were in it.
posted on 23/3/17
comment by 8bit (U2653)
posted 9 minutes ago
comment by If anyone can, Emre Can... Britain just failed its IQ Test. (U3979)
posted 11 hours, 30 minutes ago
comment by 8bit (U2653)
posted 1 day, 11 hours ago
https://www.ft.com/content/b9967120-e1ae-3b7a-af2d-180caebd5afd
Borrowing is lowest for the last 10 years since the financial crisis, if it's predicted to shrink a lot more in the next few years that can only be a positive? I don't know if it's anything to do with Brexit or just the economy improving since the crash.
----------------------------------------------------------------------
Where do you think money comes from to pay for our health service, schools, defense, government, infrastructure, etc?
----------------------------------------------------------------------
Not sure what you mean, we're forecast to borrow less money when we're out of the EU then we were when we were in it.
----------------------------------------------------------------------
From 2020 onwards OBR forecasts are basically a 'punt' as the government have not yet provided them with their post Brexit economic plan.
Given the extra resources that will be required for implementing the type Brexit the government is pushing for, short to medium term borrowing will be revised in 2018, 2019 and again in 2020.
Worth noting an already stretched public sector will have to manage a host of functions the Commission have provided the UK with for the last 40 years.
The UK will have to radically upscale it’s civil service. This has yet to be costed. Nor has the cost of leaving the customs union, and a host of EU bodies that the UK are leaving. Euratom a significant, and unnecessary risk.
The OBR also has not costed additional Home Office/DWP resources to deal with new migration requirements.
Significantly upscaling and specialising the international trade department.
Implementing new industry regulatory and governance structures.
Offsetting the loss of EU bloc grants to local councils and the devolved executives post 2020.
Offsetting the loss of EU CAP farming grants.
Drastically upscaling UK Ports and HMRC / customs checks. Border controls, I could go on…
In short any notion that the UK will have to borrow less, or will be financially better off post Brexit is a fantasy.
posted on 23/3/17
comment by IAWT... not anymore. (U10012)
posted 9 hours, 15 minutes ago
comment by blueinbarca (U3426)
posted 17 hours, 3 minutes ago
comment by IAWT... not anymore. (U10012)
posted 4 hours, 8 minutes ago
comment by Hector (U3606)
posted 15 minutes ago
comment by blueinbarca (U3426)
posted 2 hours, 53 minutes ago
I lived and worked all over Europe in the late eighties and early nineties and guess what?It was no problem at all before this EU nonsense you are all being sold a pup I'm afraid.
To work in Spain you just needed a 'Residencia' or residence permit and you still need one today to buy a property in Spain,wake up and smell the coffee please!
--------------------------------------------------------------------
So getting the 'residencia' or equivalent isn't a hassle?
Not scaremongering, just a retrograde step.
Bought and sold houses in France and Spain and it was relatively easy, talking to those from non eu countries they had extra hurdles to jump. Not insurmountable hurdles but hassles.
----------------------------------------------------------------------
Britain joined the EU in 1973...
Also as Hector said, it has never been insurmontable. European people can go and move to Canada/US and apply for jobs and all that. But it is surely much more easier to move within the UK than to get a green card or any equivalent.
------------------------------------------------------------------------
You seem to be spectacularly missing the point here,which was that you STILL needed a residencia to work,despite us all being told that everyone in the EU had the same rights,of course Spanish locals didn't need a residencia to live and work in their own country!
And are you trying to tell me that no British citizens lived or worked in Spain before 1973?Utter nonsense!
----------------------------------------------------------------------
WOW.... feckin hell
<i>From 28 March 2007, Royal Decree 240/07 requires that all EU citizens planning to reside in Spain for more than 3 months should register in person at the Oficina de Extranjeros in their province of residence or at designated Police stations. You will be issued a credit card size Residence Certificate stating your name, address, nationality, NIE number (Número de Identificación Extranjero) and date of registration. After five years residence registration you are entitled to apply for a certificate of permanent residence in Spain.</i>
This is from the UK Gov page and this is what you'd need to do if you were to get a residencia. You just have to go there and register. The same way that anyone from the EU will have to go to a job centre and register if they want to work in the UK.
Now, you might want to ask anyone from outside the EU what are the procedures for them to work in the UK.
First in some cases, they are not even allow in the country until they have provided proof of employment (the offer from the company), sponsorship from the company itself and at least 2-3 years of bank statement to prove that they have enough money in their account.
If you think those two procedures are similar, then you might want to fasten your sealbelts because it might get bumpy as It is not inconceivable to think that once the UK leave the EU, those will also be applicable to EU citizens moving here and the UK citizens will have to do the same when moving abroad.
-------------------------------------------------------------------------
Actually not true but no surprise from the UK government website talking utter carp,you actually have to go to the local Police Station to collect your Residencia and they do the appropriate checks on you before you arrive there.
Then you go to the 'Foreigner's Office'/Oficina de Extranjeros to fill in more paperwork and queue up for hours with dodgy looking Middle Easten types and Africans!
Besides the Residencia and NIE there is also a NIF or
Número de Identificación Fiscal that you need as well that if I remember relates to taxes.
I know as I did it all in Barcelona over ten years ago now and it was a complete pain in the backside and a joke as it wasn't supposed to be necessary.
Seeing as we were all,one big happy family under the iron hand of Druncker,Mutti Merk-Hell,Tusk,Schmidt and all the other Euromuppets!
posted on 23/3/17
comment by What would Stuart Pearce do? (U3126)
posted 8 hours, 27 minutes ago
comment by 8bit (U2653)
posted 9 minutes ago
comment by If anyone can, Emre Can... Britain just failed its IQ Test. (U3979)
posted 11 hours, 30 minutes ago
comment by 8bit (U2653)
posted 1 day, 11 hours ago
https://www.ft.com/content/b9967120-e1ae-3b7a-af2d-180caebd5afd
Borrowing is lowest for the last 10 years since the financial crisis, if it's predicted to shrink a lot more in the next few years that can only be a positive? I don't know if it's anything to do with Brexit or just the economy improving since the crash.
----------------------------------------------------------------------
Where do you think money comes from to pay for our health service, schools, defense, government, infrastructure, etc?
----------------------------------------------------------------------
Not sure what you mean, we're forecast to borrow less money when we're out of the EU then we were when we were in it.
----------------------------------------------------------------------
From 2020 onwards OBR forecasts are basically a 'punt' as the government have not yet provided them with their post Brexit economic plan.
Given the extra resources that will be required for implementing the type Brexit the government is pushing for, short to medium term borrowing will be revised in 2018, 2019 and again in 2020.
Worth noting an already stretched public sector will have to manage a host of functions the Commission have provided the UK with for the last 40 years.
The UK will have to radically upscale it’s civil service. This has yet to be costed. Nor has the cost of leaving the customs union, and a host of EU bodies that the UK are leaving. Euratom a significant, and unnecessary risk.
The OBR also has not costed additional Home Office/DWP resources to deal with new migration requirements.
Significantly upscaling and specialising the international trade department.
Implementing new industry regulatory and governance structures.
Offsetting the loss of EU bloc grants to local councils and the devolved executives post 2020.
Offsetting the loss of EU CAP farming grants.
Drastically upscaling UK Ports and HMRC / customs checks. Border controls, I could go on…
In short any notion that the UK will have to borrow less, or will be financially better off post Brexit is a fantasy.
-------------------------------------------------------------------------
You see again you are being sold a pup here,the fact is that if we've been run for so long,our laws created,trade deals negotiated and civil service duties all performed from Brussels that what the Hell have our very own,lazy politicians been up to during that time?
Of course the answer is very little and getting paid very handsomely for it,now it's time to put the layabouts BACK to work doing the jobs they should have been doing in the first place.
So no extra staff needed whatsoever,just actually start doing the work that you been paid to do for decades now but in reality have done sweet FA!
posted on 23/3/17
comment by blueinbarca (U3426)
posted 23 minutes ago
comment by What would Stuart Pearce do? (U3126)
posted 8 hours, 27 minutes ago
comment by 8bit (U2653)
posted 9 minutes ago
comment by If anyone can, Emre Can... Britain just failed its IQ Test. (U3979)
posted 11 hours, 30 minutes ago
comment by 8bit (U2653)
posted 1 day, 11 hours ago
https://www.ft.com/content/b9967120-e1ae-3b7a-af2d-180caebd5afd
Borrowing is lowest for the last 10 years since the financial crisis, if it's predicted to shrink a lot more in the next few years that can only be a positive? I don't know if it's anything to do with Brexit or just the economy improving since the crash.
----------------------------------------------------------------------
Where do you think money comes from to pay for our health service, schools, defense, government, infrastructure, etc?
----------------------------------------------------------------------
Not sure what you mean, we're forecast to borrow less money when we're out of the EU then we were when we were in it.
----------------------------------------------------------------------
From 2020 onwards OBR forecasts are basically a 'punt' as the government have not yet provided them with their post Brexit economic plan.
Given the extra resources that will be required for implementing the type Brexit the government is pushing for, short to medium term borrowing will be revised in 2018, 2019 and again in 2020.
Worth noting an already stretched public sector will have to manage a host of functions the Commission have provided the UK with for the last 40 years.
The UK will have to radically upscale it’s civil service. This has yet to be costed. Nor has the cost of leaving the customs union, and a host of EU bodies that the UK are leaving. Euratom a significant, and unnecessary risk.
The OBR also has not costed additional Home Office/DWP resources to deal with new migration requirements.
Significantly upscaling and specialising the international trade department.
Implementing new industry regulatory and governance structures.
Offsetting the loss of EU bloc grants to local councils and the devolved executives post 2020.
Offsetting the loss of EU CAP farming grants.
Drastically upscaling UK Ports and HMRC / customs checks. Border controls, I could go on…
In short any notion that the UK will have to borrow less, or will be financially better off post Brexit is a fantasy.
-------------------------------------------------------------------------
You see again you are being sold a pup here,the fact is that if we've been run for so long,our laws created,trade deals negotiated and civil service duties all performed from Brussels that what the Hell have our very own,lazy politicians been up to during that time?
Of course the answer is very little and getting paid very handsomely for it,now it's time to put the layabouts BACK to work doing the jobs they should have been doing in the first place.
So no extra staff needed whatsoever,just actually start doing the work that you been paid to do for decades now but in reality have done sweet FA!
----------------------------------------------------------------------
Are you on drugs?
posted on 23/3/17
Leaving the Customs Union is potentially going to have huge ramifications for UK businesses with any sort of dependency on the European market, depending on the deal struck with the EU. It's certainly going to impact consumer choice and consumer experience, and hit exports.
An example: My wife's small business, which we migrated from the UK to Portugal when we emigrated, imports super high quality materials which are used to construct clothing. She sources probably 70% of her materials by cost within the EU, and more than half of that from the UK.
Previously she has used more suppliers outside the EU; in, for example, Canada. But the customs hassles and charges applied by the authorities in the UK and then in Portugal, coupled with the delays and associated impact on her productivity, left her looking for alternative suppliers within the EU.
If the UK ends up outside the Customs Union and falling back on WTO rules and my wife sees the same hassles importing to Portugal from the UK that she's seen with Canada, she'll have to dump her UK suppliers in favour of manufacturers elsewhere in Europe.
posted on 23/3/17
rossobianchi
Read a few pieces in regard to the customs union, and its a minefield. Country of origin checks etc alone will require considerable resources.
Government have yet to even begin costing how much, and the number of staff (House of Lords estimate thousands) it is going to take.
In regard to WTO, before the UK can apply for ascension (as a sovereign nation) will firstly have to extract trading schedules (covering goods and services) from EU.
Depending on who you listen to, could take anything from two, to five years to complete. Assuming all 164 WTO members ratify without dispute.
So when the CBI and other industry bodies talk about a cliff edge, they're not scaremongering.
posted on 23/3/17
I think if it does - and anyone with even a basic understanding of what it'll mean will hope it doesn't - come to falling back on WTO rules, the Organisation and its member states will want to fast track UK ascension.
I don't think that's likely in itself to be too much of an issue.
The much, much bigger issue is how badly, relatively speaking, WTO membership would impact UK business's competitiveness, and how badly shafted the UK is going to be when it is desperately trying to negotiate bilateral trade deals as quickly as it possibly can with literally zero experience of doing the same.
posted on 23/3/17
rossobianchi
Will have to be quick but the EU, and EU27 are all WTO members in their own right.
The WTO dispute resolution system is extremely convoluted, and unless the government ignore all advice, and plough on regardless, I would be amazed if it's even an option they're considering.
Recent commons select, and House of lords committees called out the government to abandon this option. Suspect, much like recent comments from Barnier, basically more public posturing/grandstanding!
Til tomorrow
Page 4 of 4