Leeds v Forest - Match Thread

Nothing to do with Football:

Well, it's an overcast day in Sydney, but my mood couldn't be better. My housemate (looks like a cross between Noel Fielding.and Peter Beardsley) moves out today, my chest infection is on the mend (I even missed the Bolton game) and Red Dead Redemption 2 comes out. So, I'll be putting on my cowboy gear to grind down the hours, until the real blockbuster this weekend...Leeds v Forest.

Unfortunately for me, the clocks go back, so what is a 3:30am KO this Sunday morning, soon turns the more regular midnight games to 2am! Midweeks ok though...6:45 v Bolton, for example.

Never mind though, this ones on Bein (Sky), so I can watch the replay at 9:50am instead. The star of that show....pork n black pudding sausages atop a mound of English breakfast goodness.

Anyway, the match. I nearly forgot!

The story so far:

Forest and Leeds are probably both overachieving this season. Leeds new manager is continuing Leeds fortunes (albeit minus a drop in form) last season, by storming to the top of the league. Forest in 7th. Leeds with a vastly superior GD and four points ahead on 26 points.

Form:

They've faltered a bit recently and comparatively, our form is considerably better:

Forest: WLWDWW = 13 points
Leeds: WLDWDL = 8 points

Proving a point with stats: (and hopefully leading to all three)

When we've played the same teams (nine times so far this season) we edge Leeds again. 13 points from a possible 27 for us, 11 for Leeds.

However, we've only both played those teams at the same Home (or Away), four times. Forest with six points, Leeds with four.

As far as results in the top half go. Forest have played eight of those teams (3H 5A) and have picked up nine points. Leeds have played six of those teams (2H 4A) and have picked up 8 points.

Go to the top six results and Leeds finally edge Forest (not including goals and league position!), with Leeds picking up two Home wins and an Away draw, compared to Forest's one Away win and a draw and loss at Home. Again however, their two losses have come in the last six games.

At home Leeds have 14 from a possible 21 points. Forest have ten on the road in the same number of games. Leeds Home form has tailed off, Forest's Away form has improved:

Forest: DDLDDWW
Leeds: WWDWLDW

What does this all point to? Forest are in better form and odds of 4.5 for the win seem generous.

Team News:

Pants kept his place, although Dawson ensured that he didn't have much to
do. As far as I'm aware that only leaves Byram on the injury table. Leeds will surely be a sterner test and hopefully Pants has worked on his flappiness. Dawson retaining his place (if not knackered) to add some experience to the backline. Robinson slotted back in seamlessly, as did Guedioura so I'd expect depending on fitness), the same team pretty much:

Pants
Darikwa Dawson Figuerido Robinson
Colback Guedioura
Lolley Carvalho Dias
Grabban

Potentially Fox and Osborn coming in for Figs and Dias.

Leeds team news isn't up yet and I'm tired from looking at stats. So, onto
goal threats.

Danger Men:

For Leeds they have Klich and Roofe on five apiece. Forest have Grabban on eight (ten if you include the two penalty misses) and Lolley on four (five if you include the dastardly bar).

Prediction:

This is just the type of game that Forest go out and win. So, based on the stats and form...and ignoring league position and goal difference I'm going for a 3-2 away win. Grabban continuing his form of missing a penalty, but scoring one and Lolley and Osborn scoring a late winner.

Interesting fact:

I lived in Leeds for well over ten years and once met the great John Charles. RIP big man.

Cheers