comment by Penshawdave (U1894)
posted 12 hours, 33 minutes ago
comment by Real Estate - Costa Rican White - Podemos ser Top Four de nuevo (U21471)
posted 3 hours, 2 minutes ago
comment by Tector Gorch (U2484)
posted 8 hours, 41 minutes ago
Tector
LEE 99
SHU 97
BUR
SUN 88
BBN 76
WBA
COV 74
BRC
MID 72
----------------------------------------------------------------------
Tector…you must really hate Burnley 🤔
They’re already on 65…..even by Burnley’s paint dryingstandards, even I’m expecting them to amass more than six 0-0 draws from their final 13 games!! 🤣🤣
----------------------------------------------------------------------
Leeds 107 ? in your entry. Great if true.
As per entry I would bet that Tectors total at end of fun game is lower than yours, perhaps even win overall
----------------------------------------------------------------------
Sure, you’re probably right, that’s why you see a 🤣🤣 at the end!! As we are both agreed, It’s only a bit of fun and jest Dave, hence my mention about the famous Burnley 0-0 results. I give Leeds 107 out of passion for my club…as opposed to? Too easy to run the numbers through a computer. I have a feeling like me, you are old enough to remember when algorithms were all calculated using specific formulas and written on paper!
Well, Bristol City already on their way to 6th tonight…and Burnley 3 short of their 71. Sure, it works for Tector if 5th to 9th are bunched with 4 points between them come May, and I got something similar running it through a computer. Easy hedging the numbers that way but I would prefer to be right about predicting the Top 6
Records are made for breaking and thank you again for organising the game.
For the record, below is my more ‘serious’ prediction. I’m still backing Leeds and Sheffield to produce the goods come May. (Form wise, I’ve also taken into account that Sheffield have actually won 2 more points this season than their total shows)
1. Leeds 104
2. Sheffield Utd 96
3. Burnley 91
4. Sunderland 86
5. Coventry 73
6. Bristol City 70
7. Middlesbrough 68
8. Watford 67
9. West Bromwich 66
10. Blackburn 66
BBN
WBA
COV 74 74
BRC 72 72
MID
Interesting read….
https://untold-arsenal.com/archives/99822
comment by Real Estate - Costa Rican White - Podemos ser Top Four de nuevo (U21471)
posted 7 hours, 55 minutes ago
Interesting read….
https://untold-arsenal.com/archives/99822
----------------------------------------------------------------------
Yes very interesting read showing how football is really not a statistical area of examination that holds up over a period of actual teams playing actual football.
I remember well the Kevin Keegan era in 95/96 season when Newcastle lost a 12pt lead with around 15 games to go and the Keegan/Ferguson "spat" and the famous " and I'll tell you, honestly, I will love it if we beat them. Love it!"
As an exercise I have included OPTA's predictive scores in my scoring tables for end of Championship season made at the same time as fans entered the TOP SIX game. OPTA change predictions after every game but we can now check how they do against 22 JA fans.
"As an exercise I have included OPTA's predictive scores in my scoring tables for end of Championship season made at the same time as fans entered the TOP SIX game. OPTA change predictions after every game but we can now check how they do against 22 JA fans."
Looking at things they'll do well against me!.
comment by Penshawdave (U1894)
posted 1 hour, 54 minutes ago
comment by Real Estate - Costa Rican White - Podemos ser Top Four de nuevo (U21471)
posted 7 hours, 55 minutes ago
Interesting read….
https://untold-arsenal.com/archives/99822
----------------------------------------------------------------------
Yes very interesting read showing how football is really not a statistical area of examination that holds up over a period of actual teams playing actual football.
I remember well the Kevin Keegan era in 95/96 season when Newcastle lost a 12pt lead with around 15 games to go and the Keegan/Ferguson "spat" and the famous " and I'll tell you, honestly, I will love it if we beat them. Love it!"
As an exercise I have included OPTA's predictive scores in my scoring tables for end of Championship season made at the same time as fans entered the TOP SIX game. OPTA change predictions after every game but we can now check how they do against 22 JA fans.
----------------------------------------------------------------------
Dave, your game got me analysing many things related to statistics and performance. Clearly, OPTA statistics are the most reliable guide individuals and clubs have for future predictions and rhe machine learning capabilities of these supercomputers are improving all the time.
However, human analysis is imperative to give us context to compare real our life experience with the output of machines which utilise our input.
In the end, the key difference between AI and humans is the capacity to replicate performance levels. Humans have a better sense of the fluctuations in that variable than any supercomputer does.
As I’ve given the analogy before to give this whole concept a bit of context, were, between now and the end of the season, the Leeds players to stand still for 90 minutes each game and offer zero replication of previous performance, the simple fact is that OPTA prediction now would be completely wrong a d Meeds would finish outside of the play-offs.
Therefore computer analysis always has to be live and based entirely on active performance levels. On this basis we already have cash out options mid-game if we want to have a flutter.
Also, does OPTA now predict injuries or the likelihood or their occurrence or reoccurrence to a particular player, or even factor this in as a means to predict alterations to future team performance? For example, the impact to Liverpool of losing Mo Salah to an injury at this stage of the season. Do they factor in the frequency of a olayer’s loss of form, or for what percentage of a game (or multiple games) does an individual player’s productivity or performance fall away or increase. In Leeds case, this element is critical for explaining the high levels we are performing at, Even with the Ampadu injury, the impact on the result was actually positive against expected performance. That was my own factor when offering 107 as a Leeds total. I predicted the dropped points against 2 of 3 games….Sheffield Utd. Middlesbrough or Bristol City, assuming the latter could be fighting strongly for a play off place at that stage.
I think the Ampadu injury is a classic example of how likelihood of injury impact can be factored in. In his case, he has now injured both knees in the same season, yet the team performance with this key player injured actually excelled in the game which in paper was the hardest for Leeds to win. So how would OPTA calculate the impact Ampadu’s injury should have on future performance of the team. Prior to kickoff, one would likely have argued that the impact would be far higher than that which will be the sentiment now. In fact, when Ampadu and Gruev were injured earlier in the season, yet Tanaka and Rithewell stepped in, and to an extent, team performances actually improved along with output. Unlike last time, OPTA could now factor in that element as we have performance data for Rothwell and Tanaka.
All the above applies the same with any club.
It’s about new data replication of data…and little else! Human performance is hard for even a super computer to predict; so what next? OPTA factoring in players with a bad attitude?!! Asking club psychologists for data on the likelihood of player performance being affected?!! Not sure about that one!!
The list is endless!
comment by Real Estate - Costa Rican White - Podemos ser Top Four de nuevo (U21471)
posted 1 hour, 50 minutes ago
comment by Penshawdave (U1894)
posted 1 hour, 54 minutes ago
comment by Real Estate - Costa Rican White - Podemos ser Top Four de nuevo (U21471)
posted 7 hours, 55 minutes ago
Interesting read….
https://untold-arsenal.com/archives/99822
----------------------------------------------------------------------
Yes very interesting read showing how football is really not a statistical area of examination that holds up over a period of actual teams playing actual football.
I remember well the Kevin Keegan era in 95/96 season when Newcastle lost a 12pt lead with around 15 games to go and the Keegan/Ferguson "spat" and the famous " and I'll tell you, honestly, I will love it if we beat them. Love it!"
As an exercise I have included OPTA's predictive scores in my scoring tables for end of Championship season made at the same time as fans entered the TOP SIX game. OPTA change predictions after every game but we can now check how they do against 22 JA fans.
----------------------------------------------------------------------
Dave, your game got me analysing many things related to statistics and performance. Clearly, OPTA statistics are the most reliable guide individuals and clubs have for future predictions and rhe machine learning capabilities of these supercomputers are improving all the time.
However, human analysis is imperative to give us context to compare real our life experience with the output of machines which utilise our input.
In the end, the key difference between AI and humans is the capacity to replicate performance levels. Humans have a better sense of the fluctuations in that variable than any supercomputer does.
As I’ve given the analogy before to give this whole concept a bit of context, were, between now and the end of the season, the Leeds players to stand still for 90 minutes each game and offer zero replication of previous performance, the simple fact is that OPTA prediction now would be completely wrong a d Meeds would finish outside of the play-offs.
Therefore computer analysis always has to be live and based entirely on active performance levels. On this basis we already have cash out options mid-game if we want to have a flutter.
Also, does OPTA now predict injuries or the likelihood or their occurrence or reoccurrence to a particular player, or even factor this in as a means to predict alterations to future team performance? For example, the impact to Liverpool of losing Mo Salah to an injury at this stage of the season. Do they factor in the frequency of a olayer’s loss of form, or for what percentage of a game (or multiple games) does an individual player’s productivity or performance fall away or increase. In Leeds case, this element is critical for explaining the high levels we are performing at, Even with the Ampadu injury, the impact on the result was actually positive against expected performance. That was my own factor when offering 107 as a Leeds total. I predicted the dropped points against 2 of 3 games….Sheffield Utd. Middlesbrough or Bristol City, assuming the latter could be fighting strongly for a play off place at that stage.
I think the Ampadu injury is a classic example of how likelihood of injury impact can be factored in. In his case, he has now injured both knees in the same season, yet the team performance with this key player injured actually excelled in the game which in paper was the hardest for Leeds to win. So how would OPTA calculate the impact Ampadu’s injury should have on future performance of the team. Prior to kickoff, one would likely have argued that the impact would be far higher than that which will be the sentiment now. In fact, when Ampadu and Gruev were injured earlier in the season, yet Tanaka and Rithewell stepped in, and to an extent, team performances actually improved along with output. Unlike last time, OPTA could now factor in that element as we have performance data for Rothwell and Tanaka.
All the above applies the same with any club.
It’s about new data replication of data…and little else! Human performance is hard for even a super computer to predict; so what next? OPTA factoring in players with a bad attitude?!! Asking club psychologists for data on the likelihood of player performance being affected?!! Not sure about that one!!
The list is endless!
----------------------------------------------------------------------
Real, I resurrected my Top Six fun game when I stumbled across it clearing out some old spreadsheets from many years on JA. I did not expect that it could cause such in depth extensive study and "analysing many things related to statistics and performance."
I think OPTA would need a much bigger and better AI model if it needed to include the many variables you have introduced in your reflections. I enjoyed reading your many variations that could influence any AI model and probably continue to add to them.
But I have set up OPTA to be tested against some fans with years of experience of following teams like Leeds United. They know ALL the variables at great cost
You must be very difficult to have an argument with given such a responsive in depth mind for facts so I agree with everything you say and hope your pred of 107pts is too low.
Bearing in mind everything you've said, Real Estate, I am going to stick with the 1.5% bookies favourite, that we won't get promoted. We are Leeds. We can do it
Panshew,
Solanki’s forecasts are remarkably similar the mine 🤔
😉
comment by The heart of Farkeness (U19827)
posted 6 hours, 1 minute ago
Bearing in mind everything you've said, Real Estate, I am going to stick with the 1.5% bookies favourite, that we won't get promoted. We are Leeds. We can do it
----------------------------------------------------------------------
I’m with you there HoF 👏🏼
Believe it or not, I have traded currencies for many years now and followed the advancement of machine learning, which no doubt speeds up the processes of analysis.
Like economics, there is no exact science and I don’t want my passion for Leeds on any match day to ever become focused on aligning with a specific set of statistics.
I prefer to place my money on other teams unrelated to my own, and cheer on for 3 points every time the Whites take the field.
Do I think we can attain 107 points? Why the heck not?!!! Although perhaps I should hold my counsel until after the international break 🤔😉
comment by salonika73 (U4688)
posted 8 hours, 19 minutes ago
Panshew,
Solanki’s forecasts are remarkably similar the min
😉
----------------------------------------------------------------------
Salinki. Sorry about that. Will correct later today when I get chance.
Reminder of the TOP 5 scorers in the TOP 6 game after the first update with 12 games to play.
**OPTA are the supposed leading football analysts and predictions. Their predictions were entered into the game made at the same time as we poor mortals and will now be put to the test.
Current Predicted Scores.
9 CALL SIGN
10 **OPTA (Opta Analyst)
14 SALONIKA (Salonika73)
14 STEROSS (Steross17)
16 LIGHT (The Light Brigade)
Top Six game updated 5th March. 11 games to play.
Leading Scores to date with lowest score winning:
6 ..CALLSIGN
9 ..**OPTA
12.. STEROSS
13 ..LIGHT
13 ..PSD
13 ..SALONIKA
15 ..MR M
comment by Penshawdave (U1894)
posted 1 week ago
comment by Real Estate - Costa Rican White - Podemos ser Top Four de nuevo (U21471)
posted 1 hour, 50 minutes ago
comment by Penshawdave (U1894)
posted 1 hour, 54 minutes ago
comment by Real Estate - Costa Rican White - Podemos ser Top Four de nuevo (U21471)
posted 7 hours, 55 minutes ago
Interesting read….
https://untold-arsenal.com/archives/99822
----------------------------------------------------------------------
Yes very interesting read showing how football is really not a statistical area of examination that holds up over a period of actual teams playing actual football.
I remember well the Kevin Keegan era in 95/96 season when Newcastle lost a 12pt lead with around 15 games to go and the Keegan/Ferguson "spat" and the famous " and I'll tell you, honestly, I will love it if we beat them. Love it!"
As an exercise I have included OPTA's predictive scores in my scoring tables for end of Championship season made at the same time as fans entered the TOP SIX game. OPTA change predictions after every game but we can now check how they do against 22 JA fans.
----------------------------------------------------------------------
Dave, your game got me analysing many things related to statistics and performance. Clearly, OPTA statistics are the most reliable guide individuals and clubs have for future predictions and rhe machine learning capabilities of these supercomputers are improving all the time.
However, human analysis is imperative to give us context to compare real our life experience with the output of machines which utilise our input.
In the end, the key difference between AI and humans is the capacity to replicate performance levels. Humans have a better sense of the fluctuations in that variable than any supercomputer does.
As I’ve given the analogy before to give this whole concept a bit of context, were, between now and the end of the season, the Leeds players to stand still for 90 minutes each game and offer zero replication of previous performance, the simple fact is that OPTA prediction now would be completely wrong a d Meeds would finish outside of the play-offs.
Therefore computer analysis always has to be live and based entirely on active performance levels. On this basis we already have cash out options mid-game if we want to have a flutter.
Also, does OPTA now predict injuries or the likelihood or their occurrence or reoccurrence to a particular player, or even factor this in as a means to predict alterations to future team performance? For example, the impact to Liverpool of losing Mo Salah to an injury at this stage of the season. Do they factor in the frequency of a olayer’s loss of form, or for what percentage of a game (or multiple games) does an individual player’s productivity or performance fall away or increase. In Leeds case, this element is critical for explaining the high levels we are performing at, Even with the Ampadu injury, the impact on the result was actually positive against expected performance. That was my own factor when offering 107 as a Leeds total. I predicted the dropped points against 2 of 3 games….Sheffield Utd. Middlesbrough or Bristol City, assuming the latter could be fighting strongly for a play off place at that stage.
I think the Ampadu injury is a classic example of how likelihood of injury impact can be factored in. In his case, he has now injured both knees in the same season, yet the team performance with this key player injured actually excelled in the game which in paper was the hardest for Leeds to win. So how would OPTA calculate the impact Ampadu’s injury should have on future performance of the team. Prior to kickoff, one would likely have argued that the impact would be far higher than that which will be the sentiment now. In fact, when Ampadu and Gruev were injured earlier in the season, yet Tanaka and Rithewell stepped in, and to an extent, team performances actually improved along with output. Unlike last time, OPTA could now factor in that element as we have performance data for Rothwell and Tanaka.
All the above applies the same with any club.
It’s about new data replication of data…and little else! Human performance is hard for even a super computer to predict; so what next? OPTA factoring in players with a bad attitude?!! Asking club psychologists for data on the likelihood of player performance being affected?!! Not sure about that one!!
The list is endless!
----------------------------------------------------------------------
Real, I resurrected my Top Six fun game when I stumbled across it clearing out some old spreadsheets from many years on JA. I did not expect that it could cause such in depth extensive study and "analysing many things related to statistics and performance."
I think OPTA would need a much bigger and better AI model if it needed to include the many variables you have introduced in your reflections. I enjoyed reading your many variations that could influence any AI model and probably continue to add to them.
But I have set up OPTA to be tested against some fans with years of experience of following teams like Leeds United. They know ALL the variables at great cost
You must be very difficult to have an argument with given such a responsive in depth mind for facts so I agree with everything you say and hope your pred of 107pts is too low.
----------------------------------------------------------------------
Dave, there will be none more appreciative than myself of your contribution and the time and preparation put into setting up this game for us all to enjoy.
Regarding my arguments, I’d say there are quite a few argumentative souls here on JA606 whom we could name, just as there were on the previous BBC version, of which I was a participant for many years! Actually, I remember during the first couple of weeks of the creation of JA606 Admin requesting an old URL from the BBC606 forum; I obliged by locating a drive where I was sure I had download one of the pages. So here are!
Apologies if I seem argumentative over something which is a bit of fun. For me, over here, research involves pitting the mind against corrupt politicians and lawyers which requires detailed study to close down avenues of argument, which often rely on assertions centered on weak evidence. The secret is to not only anticipate their answers, but to prepare the further questions which will need asking in response. Dismantle the credibility of a witness in advance is a point of entry. 80% of the preparation is being find a way to anticipate and explain the weakest elements of your own submitted evidence. Much of this in Spanish! Yes, over here, it isn’t a matter of the ‘the witness says…so it must be true!’ The idea is that if your claim is true, you have no fear to present substantive evidence. Assertions do not equate to fact! There is definitely no victimhood! NHCIs?🙄 Unheard of here; maybe only in a parody. After all that, the remainder of the ‘game’ involves a blackout of disseminating any information - silence!! Just 12 more months of this to go….
Either way, I assure you, I make Trump and his calvary make us all look tame and well behaved, including me!
Anyway, I’m sticking with my same top 6 teams here, and so far, so good. My revised total I think is more realistic, so we will see in a couple of months.
Top Six game updated 9th March. 10 games to play.
Leading Scores to date with lowest score winning:
9 --- SALONIKA
11 --- **OPTA
12 --- CALLSIGN
12 --- PSD
12 --- STEROSS
16 --- LIGHT
Salonika👏.
(I should’ve wound my neck in re: Boro😁)
Early days TLB...
..but have to say I still don't quite understand how the scoring works!
ie if I look at my prediction, what do look at to compare that to see how I arrive at a score of 9? 🤭🤔🤪
Leeds losing to Pompey could cost me
comment by salonika73 (U4688)
posted 1 hour, 15 minutes ago
Early days TLB...
..but have to say I still don't quite understand how the scoring works!
ie if I look at my prediction, what do look at to compare that to see how I arrive at a score of 9? 🤭🤔🤪
----------------------------------------------------------------------
Your initial prediction as follows scored against the OPTA predicted score as follows
LEE 97.. SHU 94..BUR 93.. SUN 84.. BBN 66 ..WBA 70
SALONIKA
LEE 97... 0pts
SHU 94... 0pts
BUR 90... 3 pt
SUN 86... 2 pts
BBN 70... 4 pts
WBA 70... 0 pts TOTAL 9 POINTS
BUT ..Its the actual season end points that will obviously count. OPTA current prediction is just used as a guide during the game.
comment by Penshawdave (U1894)
posted 1 hour, 34 minutes ago
comment by salonika73 (U4688)
posted 1 hour, 15 minutes ago
Early days TLB...
..but have to say I still don't quite understand how the scoring works!
ie if I look at my prediction, what do look at to compare that to see how I arrive at a score of 9? 🤭🤔🤪
----------------------------------------------------------------------
Your initial prediction as follows scored against the OPTA predicted score as follows
LEE 97.. SHU 94..BUR 93.. SUN 84.. BBN 66 ..WBA 70
SALONIKA
LEE 97... 0pts
SHU 94... 0pts
BUR 90... 3 pt
SUN 86... 2 pts
BBN 70... 4 pts
WBA 70... 0 pts TOTAL 9 POINTS
BUT ..Its the actual season end points that will obviously count. OPTA current prediction is just used as a guide during the game.
----------------------------------------------------------------------
Gotcha 👍 cheers P.Dave
Top Six game updated 9th March. 9 games to play.
Leading Scores to date with lowest score winning:
12 ..OPTA
12 ..PSD
13 ..CALLSIGN
14 ..SALONIKA
14 ..STEROSS
comment by Penshawdave (U1894)
posted 3 days, 18 hours ago
BUT ..Its the actual season end points that will obviously count. OPTA current prediction is just used as a guide during the game.
----------------------------------------------------------------------
That’s the fun ‘challenge’ part; beating OPTA’s original prediction.made at the start of the game. Human instinct vs AI
Top Six game updated 17th March. 8 games to play.
Leading Scores to date with lowest score winning:
13 ..PSD
15 ..CALLSIGN
16 ..SALONIKA
18 ..**OPTA
19 ..LIGHT
19 ..MR M
19 ..STEROSS
Wow! Dave👍 … showing us mere amateurs how it’s done😁
A bit early for acclaim.
Last year early leaders had 10 points but all ended up with final 7 totals below. So totals will I expect go higher than at present. I hope to see Opta down the table !
My guess will be 18 -20 winner
1-- 21 ... VREV.
2-- 22 ... MIDSX
2-- 22 ... PSD..
4-- 23 ... LIGHT
5-- 25 ... SIRKEN
6-- 26 ... EMKRIT
6-- 26 ... FOX...
Sign in if you want to comment
TOP SIX POINTS GAME: Update
Page 3 of 4
posted on 21/2/25
comment by Penshawdave (U1894)
posted 12 hours, 33 minutes ago
comment by Real Estate - Costa Rican White - Podemos ser Top Four de nuevo (U21471)
posted 3 hours, 2 minutes ago
comment by Tector Gorch (U2484)
posted 8 hours, 41 minutes ago
Tector
LEE 99
SHU 97
BUR
SUN 88
BBN 76
WBA
COV 74
BRC
MID 72
----------------------------------------------------------------------
Tector…you must really hate Burnley 🤔
They’re already on 65…..even by Burnley’s paint dryingstandards, even I’m expecting them to amass more than six 0-0 draws from their final 13 games!! 🤣🤣
----------------------------------------------------------------------
Leeds 107 ? in your entry. Great if true.
As per entry I would bet that Tectors total at end of fun game is lower than yours, perhaps even win overall
----------------------------------------------------------------------
Sure, you’re probably right, that’s why you see a 🤣🤣 at the end!! As we are both agreed, It’s only a bit of fun and jest Dave, hence my mention about the famous Burnley 0-0 results. I give Leeds 107 out of passion for my club…as opposed to? Too easy to run the numbers through a computer. I have a feeling like me, you are old enough to remember when algorithms were all calculated using specific formulas and written on paper!
Well, Bristol City already on their way to 6th tonight…and Burnley 3 short of their 71. Sure, it works for Tector if 5th to 9th are bunched with 4 points between them come May, and I got something similar running it through a computer. Easy hedging the numbers that way but I would prefer to be right about predicting the Top 6
Records are made for breaking and thank you again for organising the game.
posted on 21/2/25
For the record, below is my more ‘serious’ prediction. I’m still backing Leeds and Sheffield to produce the goods come May. (Form wise, I’ve also taken into account that Sheffield have actually won 2 more points this season than their total shows)
1. Leeds 104
2. Sheffield Utd 96
3. Burnley 91
4. Sunderland 86
5. Coventry 73
6. Bristol City 70
7. Middlesbrough 68
8. Watford 67
9. West Bromwich 66
10. Blackburn 66
BBN WBA COV 74 74 BRC 72 72 MID
posted on 26/2/25
Interesting read….
https://untold-arsenal.com/archives/99822
posted on 26/2/25
comment by Real Estate - Costa Rican White - Podemos ser Top Four de nuevo (U21471)
posted 7 hours, 55 minutes ago
Interesting read….
https://untold-arsenal.com/archives/99822
----------------------------------------------------------------------
Yes very interesting read showing how football is really not a statistical area of examination that holds up over a period of actual teams playing actual football.
I remember well the Kevin Keegan era in 95/96 season when Newcastle lost a 12pt lead with around 15 games to go and the Keegan/Ferguson "spat" and the famous " and I'll tell you, honestly, I will love it if we beat them. Love it!"
As an exercise I have included OPTA's predictive scores in my scoring tables for end of Championship season made at the same time as fans entered the TOP SIX game. OPTA change predictions after every game but we can now check how they do against 22 JA fans.
posted on 26/2/25
"As an exercise I have included OPTA's predictive scores in my scoring tables for end of Championship season made at the same time as fans entered the TOP SIX game. OPTA change predictions after every game but we can now check how they do against 22 JA fans."
Looking at things they'll do well against me!.
posted on 26/2/25
comment by Penshawdave (U1894)
posted 1 hour, 54 minutes ago
comment by Real Estate - Costa Rican White - Podemos ser Top Four de nuevo (U21471)
posted 7 hours, 55 minutes ago
Interesting read….
https://untold-arsenal.com/archives/99822
----------------------------------------------------------------------
Yes very interesting read showing how football is really not a statistical area of examination that holds up over a period of actual teams playing actual football.
I remember well the Kevin Keegan era in 95/96 season when Newcastle lost a 12pt lead with around 15 games to go and the Keegan/Ferguson "spat" and the famous " and I'll tell you, honestly, I will love it if we beat them. Love it!"
As an exercise I have included OPTA's predictive scores in my scoring tables for end of Championship season made at the same time as fans entered the TOP SIX game. OPTA change predictions after every game but we can now check how they do against 22 JA fans.
----------------------------------------------------------------------
Dave, your game got me analysing many things related to statistics and performance. Clearly, OPTA statistics are the most reliable guide individuals and clubs have for future predictions and rhe machine learning capabilities of these supercomputers are improving all the time.
However, human analysis is imperative to give us context to compare real our life experience with the output of machines which utilise our input.
In the end, the key difference between AI and humans is the capacity to replicate performance levels. Humans have a better sense of the fluctuations in that variable than any supercomputer does.
As I’ve given the analogy before to give this whole concept a bit of context, were, between now and the end of the season, the Leeds players to stand still for 90 minutes each game and offer zero replication of previous performance, the simple fact is that OPTA prediction now would be completely wrong a d Meeds would finish outside of the play-offs.
Therefore computer analysis always has to be live and based entirely on active performance levels. On this basis we already have cash out options mid-game if we want to have a flutter.
Also, does OPTA now predict injuries or the likelihood or their occurrence or reoccurrence to a particular player, or even factor this in as a means to predict alterations to future team performance? For example, the impact to Liverpool of losing Mo Salah to an injury at this stage of the season. Do they factor in the frequency of a olayer’s loss of form, or for what percentage of a game (or multiple games) does an individual player’s productivity or performance fall away or increase. In Leeds case, this element is critical for explaining the high levels we are performing at, Even with the Ampadu injury, the impact on the result was actually positive against expected performance. That was my own factor when offering 107 as a Leeds total. I predicted the dropped points against 2 of 3 games….Sheffield Utd. Middlesbrough or Bristol City, assuming the latter could be fighting strongly for a play off place at that stage.
I think the Ampadu injury is a classic example of how likelihood of injury impact can be factored in. In his case, he has now injured both knees in the same season, yet the team performance with this key player injured actually excelled in the game which in paper was the hardest for Leeds to win. So how would OPTA calculate the impact Ampadu’s injury should have on future performance of the team. Prior to kickoff, one would likely have argued that the impact would be far higher than that which will be the sentiment now. In fact, when Ampadu and Gruev were injured earlier in the season, yet Tanaka and Rithewell stepped in, and to an extent, team performances actually improved along with output. Unlike last time, OPTA could now factor in that element as we have performance data for Rothwell and Tanaka.
All the above applies the same with any club.
It’s about new data replication of data…and little else! Human performance is hard for even a super computer to predict; so what next? OPTA factoring in players with a bad attitude?!! Asking club psychologists for data on the likelihood of player performance being affected?!! Not sure about that one!!
The list is endless!
posted on 26/2/25
comment by Real Estate - Costa Rican White - Podemos ser Top Four de nuevo (U21471)
posted 1 hour, 50 minutes ago
comment by Penshawdave (U1894)
posted 1 hour, 54 minutes ago
comment by Real Estate - Costa Rican White - Podemos ser Top Four de nuevo (U21471)
posted 7 hours, 55 minutes ago
Interesting read….
https://untold-arsenal.com/archives/99822
----------------------------------------------------------------------
Yes very interesting read showing how football is really not a statistical area of examination that holds up over a period of actual teams playing actual football.
I remember well the Kevin Keegan era in 95/96 season when Newcastle lost a 12pt lead with around 15 games to go and the Keegan/Ferguson "spat" and the famous " and I'll tell you, honestly, I will love it if we beat them. Love it!"
As an exercise I have included OPTA's predictive scores in my scoring tables for end of Championship season made at the same time as fans entered the TOP SIX game. OPTA change predictions after every game but we can now check how they do against 22 JA fans.
----------------------------------------------------------------------
Dave, your game got me analysing many things related to statistics and performance. Clearly, OPTA statistics are the most reliable guide individuals and clubs have for future predictions and rhe machine learning capabilities of these supercomputers are improving all the time.
However, human analysis is imperative to give us context to compare real our life experience with the output of machines which utilise our input.
In the end, the key difference between AI and humans is the capacity to replicate performance levels. Humans have a better sense of the fluctuations in that variable than any supercomputer does.
As I’ve given the analogy before to give this whole concept a bit of context, were, between now and the end of the season, the Leeds players to stand still for 90 minutes each game and offer zero replication of previous performance, the simple fact is that OPTA prediction now would be completely wrong a d Meeds would finish outside of the play-offs.
Therefore computer analysis always has to be live and based entirely on active performance levels. On this basis we already have cash out options mid-game if we want to have a flutter.
Also, does OPTA now predict injuries or the likelihood or their occurrence or reoccurrence to a particular player, or even factor this in as a means to predict alterations to future team performance? For example, the impact to Liverpool of losing Mo Salah to an injury at this stage of the season. Do they factor in the frequency of a olayer’s loss of form, or for what percentage of a game (or multiple games) does an individual player’s productivity or performance fall away or increase. In Leeds case, this element is critical for explaining the high levels we are performing at, Even with the Ampadu injury, the impact on the result was actually positive against expected performance. That was my own factor when offering 107 as a Leeds total. I predicted the dropped points against 2 of 3 games….Sheffield Utd. Middlesbrough or Bristol City, assuming the latter could be fighting strongly for a play off place at that stage.
I think the Ampadu injury is a classic example of how likelihood of injury impact can be factored in. In his case, he has now injured both knees in the same season, yet the team performance with this key player injured actually excelled in the game which in paper was the hardest for Leeds to win. So how would OPTA calculate the impact Ampadu’s injury should have on future performance of the team. Prior to kickoff, one would likely have argued that the impact would be far higher than that which will be the sentiment now. In fact, when Ampadu and Gruev were injured earlier in the season, yet Tanaka and Rithewell stepped in, and to an extent, team performances actually improved along with output. Unlike last time, OPTA could now factor in that element as we have performance data for Rothwell and Tanaka.
All the above applies the same with any club.
It’s about new data replication of data…and little else! Human performance is hard for even a super computer to predict; so what next? OPTA factoring in players with a bad attitude?!! Asking club psychologists for data on the likelihood of player performance being affected?!! Not sure about that one!!
The list is endless!
----------------------------------------------------------------------
Real, I resurrected my Top Six fun game when I stumbled across it clearing out some old spreadsheets from many years on JA. I did not expect that it could cause such in depth extensive study and "analysing many things related to statistics and performance."
I think OPTA would need a much bigger and better AI model if it needed to include the many variables you have introduced in your reflections. I enjoyed reading your many variations that could influence any AI model and probably continue to add to them.
But I have set up OPTA to be tested against some fans with years of experience of following teams like Leeds United. They know ALL the variables at great cost
You must be very difficult to have an argument with given such a responsive in depth mind for facts so I agree with everything you say and hope your pred of 107pts is too low.
posted on 26/2/25
Bearing in mind everything you've said, Real Estate, I am going to stick with the 1.5% bookies favourite, that we won't get promoted. We are Leeds. We can do it
posted on 26/2/25
Panshew,
Solanki’s forecasts are remarkably similar the mine 🤔
😉
posted on 27/2/25
comment by The heart of Farkeness (U19827)
posted 6 hours, 1 minute ago
Bearing in mind everything you've said, Real Estate, I am going to stick with the 1.5% bookies favourite, that we won't get promoted. We are Leeds. We can do it
----------------------------------------------------------------------
I’m with you there HoF 👏🏼
Believe it or not, I have traded currencies for many years now and followed the advancement of machine learning, which no doubt speeds up the processes of analysis.
Like economics, there is no exact science and I don’t want my passion for Leeds on any match day to ever become focused on aligning with a specific set of statistics.
I prefer to place my money on other teams unrelated to my own, and cheer on for 3 points every time the Whites take the field.
Do I think we can attain 107 points? Why the heck not?!!! Although perhaps I should hold my counsel until after the international break 🤔😉
posted on 27/2/25
comment by salonika73 (U4688)
posted 8 hours, 19 minutes ago
Panshew,
Solanki’s forecasts are remarkably similar the min
😉
----------------------------------------------------------------------
Salinki. Sorry about that. Will correct later today when I get chance.
posted on 27/2/25
Reminder of the TOP 5 scorers in the TOP 6 game after the first update with 12 games to play.
**OPTA are the supposed leading football analysts and predictions. Their predictions were entered into the game made at the same time as we poor mortals and will now be put to the test.
Current Predicted Scores.
9 CALL SIGN
10 **OPTA (Opta Analyst)
14 SALONIKA (Salonika73)
14 STEROSS (Steross17)
16 LIGHT (The Light Brigade)
posted on 5/3/25
Top Six game updated 5th March. 11 games to play.
Leading Scores to date with lowest score winning:
6 ..CALLSIGN
9 ..**OPTA
12.. STEROSS
13 ..LIGHT
13 ..PSD
13 ..SALONIKA
15 ..MR M
posted on 5/3/25
comment by Penshawdave (U1894)
posted 1 week ago
comment by Real Estate - Costa Rican White - Podemos ser Top Four de nuevo (U21471)
posted 1 hour, 50 minutes ago
comment by Penshawdave (U1894)
posted 1 hour, 54 minutes ago
comment by Real Estate - Costa Rican White - Podemos ser Top Four de nuevo (U21471)
posted 7 hours, 55 minutes ago
Interesting read….
https://untold-arsenal.com/archives/99822
----------------------------------------------------------------------
Yes very interesting read showing how football is really not a statistical area of examination that holds up over a period of actual teams playing actual football.
I remember well the Kevin Keegan era in 95/96 season when Newcastle lost a 12pt lead with around 15 games to go and the Keegan/Ferguson "spat" and the famous " and I'll tell you, honestly, I will love it if we beat them. Love it!"
As an exercise I have included OPTA's predictive scores in my scoring tables for end of Championship season made at the same time as fans entered the TOP SIX game. OPTA change predictions after every game but we can now check how they do against 22 JA fans.
----------------------------------------------------------------------
Dave, your game got me analysing many things related to statistics and performance. Clearly, OPTA statistics are the most reliable guide individuals and clubs have for future predictions and rhe machine learning capabilities of these supercomputers are improving all the time.
However, human analysis is imperative to give us context to compare real our life experience with the output of machines which utilise our input.
In the end, the key difference between AI and humans is the capacity to replicate performance levels. Humans have a better sense of the fluctuations in that variable than any supercomputer does.
As I’ve given the analogy before to give this whole concept a bit of context, were, between now and the end of the season, the Leeds players to stand still for 90 minutes each game and offer zero replication of previous performance, the simple fact is that OPTA prediction now would be completely wrong a d Meeds would finish outside of the play-offs.
Therefore computer analysis always has to be live and based entirely on active performance levels. On this basis we already have cash out options mid-game if we want to have a flutter.
Also, does OPTA now predict injuries or the likelihood or their occurrence or reoccurrence to a particular player, or even factor this in as a means to predict alterations to future team performance? For example, the impact to Liverpool of losing Mo Salah to an injury at this stage of the season. Do they factor in the frequency of a olayer’s loss of form, or for what percentage of a game (or multiple games) does an individual player’s productivity or performance fall away or increase. In Leeds case, this element is critical for explaining the high levels we are performing at, Even with the Ampadu injury, the impact on the result was actually positive against expected performance. That was my own factor when offering 107 as a Leeds total. I predicted the dropped points against 2 of 3 games….Sheffield Utd. Middlesbrough or Bristol City, assuming the latter could be fighting strongly for a play off place at that stage.
I think the Ampadu injury is a classic example of how likelihood of injury impact can be factored in. In his case, he has now injured both knees in the same season, yet the team performance with this key player injured actually excelled in the game which in paper was the hardest for Leeds to win. So how would OPTA calculate the impact Ampadu’s injury should have on future performance of the team. Prior to kickoff, one would likely have argued that the impact would be far higher than that which will be the sentiment now. In fact, when Ampadu and Gruev were injured earlier in the season, yet Tanaka and Rithewell stepped in, and to an extent, team performances actually improved along with output. Unlike last time, OPTA could now factor in that element as we have performance data for Rothwell and Tanaka.
All the above applies the same with any club.
It’s about new data replication of data…and little else! Human performance is hard for even a super computer to predict; so what next? OPTA factoring in players with a bad attitude?!! Asking club psychologists for data on the likelihood of player performance being affected?!! Not sure about that one!!
The list is endless!
----------------------------------------------------------------------
Real, I resurrected my Top Six fun game when I stumbled across it clearing out some old spreadsheets from many years on JA. I did not expect that it could cause such in depth extensive study and "analysing many things related to statistics and performance."
I think OPTA would need a much bigger and better AI model if it needed to include the many variables you have introduced in your reflections. I enjoyed reading your many variations that could influence any AI model and probably continue to add to them.
But I have set up OPTA to be tested against some fans with years of experience of following teams like Leeds United. They know ALL the variables at great cost
You must be very difficult to have an argument with given such a responsive in depth mind for facts so I agree with everything you say and hope your pred of 107pts is too low.
----------------------------------------------------------------------
Dave, there will be none more appreciative than myself of your contribution and the time and preparation put into setting up this game for us all to enjoy.
Regarding my arguments, I’d say there are quite a few argumentative souls here on JA606 whom we could name, just as there were on the previous BBC version, of which I was a participant for many years! Actually, I remember during the first couple of weeks of the creation of JA606 Admin requesting an old URL from the BBC606 forum; I obliged by locating a drive where I was sure I had download one of the pages. So here are!
Apologies if I seem argumentative over something which is a bit of fun. For me, over here, research involves pitting the mind against corrupt politicians and lawyers which requires detailed study to close down avenues of argument, which often rely on assertions centered on weak evidence. The secret is to not only anticipate their answers, but to prepare the further questions which will need asking in response. Dismantle the credibility of a witness in advance is a point of entry. 80% of the preparation is being find a way to anticipate and explain the weakest elements of your own submitted evidence. Much of this in Spanish! Yes, over here, it isn’t a matter of the ‘the witness says…so it must be true!’ The idea is that if your claim is true, you have no fear to present substantive evidence. Assertions do not equate to fact! There is definitely no victimhood! NHCIs?🙄 Unheard of here; maybe only in a parody. After all that, the remainder of the ‘game’ involves a blackout of disseminating any information - silence!! Just 12 more months of this to go….
Either way, I assure you, I make Trump and his calvary make us all look tame and well behaved, including me!
Anyway, I’m sticking with my same top 6 teams here, and so far, so good. My revised total I think is more realistic, so we will see in a couple of months.
posted on 9/3/25
Top Six game updated 9th March. 10 games to play.
Leading Scores to date with lowest score winning:
9 --- SALONIKA
11 --- **OPTA
12 --- CALLSIGN
12 --- PSD
12 --- STEROSS
16 --- LIGHT
posted on 9/3/25
Salonika👏.
(I should’ve wound my neck in re: Boro😁)
posted on 9/3/25
Early days TLB...
..but have to say I still don't quite understand how the scoring works!
ie if I look at my prediction, what do look at to compare that to see how I arrive at a score of 9? 🤭🤔🤪
posted on 9/3/25
Leeds losing to Pompey could cost me
posted on 9/3/25
comment by salonika73 (U4688)
posted 1 hour, 15 minutes ago
Early days TLB...
..but have to say I still don't quite understand how the scoring works!
ie if I look at my prediction, what do look at to compare that to see how I arrive at a score of 9? 🤭🤔🤪
----------------------------------------------------------------------
Your initial prediction as follows scored against the OPTA predicted score as follows
LEE 97.. SHU 94..BUR 93.. SUN 84.. BBN 66 ..WBA 70
SALONIKA
LEE 97... 0pts
SHU 94... 0pts
BUR 90... 3 pt
SUN 86... 2 pts
BBN 70... 4 pts
WBA 70... 0 pts TOTAL 9 POINTS
BUT ..Its the actual season end points that will obviously count. OPTA current prediction is just used as a guide during the game.
posted on 9/3/25
comment by Penshawdave (U1894)
posted 1 hour, 34 minutes ago
comment by salonika73 (U4688)
posted 1 hour, 15 minutes ago
Early days TLB...
..but have to say I still don't quite understand how the scoring works!
ie if I look at my prediction, what do look at to compare that to see how I arrive at a score of 9? 🤭🤔🤪
----------------------------------------------------------------------
Your initial prediction as follows scored against the OPTA predicted score as follows
LEE 97.. SHU 94..BUR 93.. SUN 84.. BBN 66 ..WBA 70
SALONIKA
LEE 97... 0pts
SHU 94... 0pts
BUR 90... 3 pt
SUN 86... 2 pts
BBN 70... 4 pts
WBA 70... 0 pts TOTAL 9 POINTS
BUT ..Its the actual season end points that will obviously count. OPTA current prediction is just used as a guide during the game.
----------------------------------------------------------------------
Gotcha 👍 cheers P.Dave
posted on 13/3/25
Top Six game updated 9th March. 9 games to play.
Leading Scores to date with lowest score winning:
12 ..OPTA
12 ..PSD
13 ..CALLSIGN
14 ..SALONIKA
14 ..STEROSS
posted on 13/3/25
comment by Penshawdave (U1894)
posted 3 days, 18 hours ago
BUT ..Its the actual season end points that will obviously count. OPTA current prediction is just used as a guide during the game.
----------------------------------------------------------------------
That’s the fun ‘challenge’ part; beating OPTA’s original prediction.made at the start of the game. Human instinct vs AI
posted on 17/3/25
Top Six game updated 17th March. 8 games to play.
Leading Scores to date with lowest score winning:
13 ..PSD
15 ..CALLSIGN
16 ..SALONIKA
18 ..**OPTA
19 ..LIGHT
19 ..MR M
19 ..STEROSS
posted on 17/3/25
Wow! Dave👍 … showing us mere amateurs how it’s done😁
posted on 17/3/25
A bit early for acclaim.
Last year early leaders had 10 points but all ended up with final 7 totals below. So totals will I expect go higher than at present. I hope to see Opta down the table !
My guess will be 18 -20 winner
1-- 21 ... VREV.
2-- 22 ... MIDSX
2-- 22 ... PSD..
4-- 23 ... LIGHT
5-- 25 ... SIRKEN
6-- 26 ... EMKRIT
6-- 26 ... FOX...
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