The way I see it, we have three games left. Burnley, Sunderland and the Blades. These are the games where we can put some distance between ourselves and the competition.
The statistics tell us that we are far ahead of the teams outside the top four and we should be in a strong position to win our games against them. There are factors we can do nothing about - injuries, critical errors, refereeing decisions and red cards - but in terms of our squad, we are, without disrespect to the opposition, exceptionally strong, top of the league for goals scored, chances created, passing, possession and least chances conceded.
If you accept the 'three game league' argument, this opens a strategic pathway to the autos. First of all, these are the games:
27.1.25 Burnley away
17.2.25 Sunderland home
24.2.25 Sheffield United away
In every sense, they are all 'six-pointers'.
Here is the four team league as it stands:
Sunderland - P5 W2 D2 L1 PTS 8
Burnley - P4 W2 D1 L1 PTS 7
Leeds - P3 W1 D1 L1 PTS 4
Sheff U - P4 W1 D1 L2 PTS 4
If you accept the argument that over the course of the season, all four will gain roughly the same number of points against the rest, this suggests that the top two in this mini league will most likely get the autos.
Sheffield United have already lost two, and have Leeds and Burnley still to play. They need a minimum of four points to make the top two. For this reason, I think they face the biggest challenge.
For Burnley, they have two home games in this league, against us and Sheffield United. One win will get them a place in the autos.
Sunderland have just one game left and a point against Leeds gives them a shot at the autos. A win against us would be very damaging to our hopes of the autos, because Sunderland have more games left against weaker teams than we do.
For us to be certain of a place in the top two, we need a minimum of five points. Two draws and a win. Our home record suggests we will take the points against Sunderland. It's too tight to call in the other two, but a point at Turf Moor would be massive. This cannot be overstated. Psychologically a draw against Burnley means we will stay in the autos. We will be at least three ahead of Sunderland and Burnley with goal difference in our favour. A win at Turf Moor, and we are in dreamland.
There are many scenarios that may occur and we all know that Leeds are capable, and incapable, of choosing any of them, but five points from these three games, and I think we are up.
Unless you think otherwise?
Three games left
posted on 24/1/25
By the way, this time last year, the top four were thirteen points (25 in the case of Leicester) ahead of the rest. This year, you have four teams at the top who are matching each other stride for stride. Best fans notion, that if we are top after 1st March, we should be good for the autos, is reasonable, in my view.
posted on 24/1/25
Think the Hull result tonight kind of put a kaibosh on this article !
posted on 24/1/25
Beware of hubris Salonika. I am sure we all have this kind of result in our locker. 😉
posted on 24/1/25
Tell me you know full fook about football, without tellling me
posted on 24/1/25
Tell me you know full fook about football,
without tellling me
^^^
This made me laugh out loud. Again.
I'd like to take these words exactly as posted
via a damn good beery night out, and plaster
them across a t-shirt. And sell them.
posted on 25/1/25
full fook football
^^^
I mean, come on, we'd sell millions of these t-shirts.
posted on 25/1/25
comment by The heart of Farkeness (U19827)
posted 2 hours, 7 minutes ago
Beware of hubris Salonika. I am sure we all have this kind of result in our locker. 😉
----------------------------------------------------------------------
Exactly my point ! Focussing on results against just 3 team is bananas!! Just look at our matches from 1 March .... should win them all! Job done. Will we fook. Will be heart monitor time, as per usual 🩺
posted on 25/1/25
Even if we lose all three of the mentioned games we still go up by winning the rest. What matters are points won not who they are against. Last year we beat Leicester twice and thrashed Ipswich home and away but look what happened. Are we likely to lose three more this season, I doubt it.
posted on 25/1/25
As long as we play to our basic capabilities in our remaining games with the core of the side as it has been thus far we get in the top 2 as far as I see it but if we manage to raise our bar of performance in at least a dozen of our remaining games to the highest we've seen it this season against Shef Utd and Sunderland then I think we hit 100 points but the obvious flaw in all this is we're passing judgement on Leeds United which can never be taken for granted so an air of caution is always required but nonetheless we're looking hot favourites to get a top 2 spot whatever mental gymnastics we use to analyse it all.
posted on 25/1/25
Lost me at 3 games left!