Morning HoF and all🌞.
Nice piece of work and for that, I’m giving this thread 5*👍.
However, I don’t agree. Your premise suggests that of our remaining 18 games, 15 of them are effectively a ‘gimme’ and we only have to turn up to get the result we need (yes, granted, also in comparison to how the other 3 at the top atm fare in those 15 games). I accept these are my words, not yours, but that’s the way I’ve interpreted what you’re suggesting. My view is that we’re (Leeds) so unpredictable and I couldn’t in all honesty say right now that I feel confident to get the ‘right’ results in those other 15 games.
The table certainly shows a 4-horse race right now, with a 10-point gap between 4th and 5th place but I’m gonna wait a little while longer before making any end-of-season predictions. Oh and yes, I defo want at least a draw against Burnley on Monday👍😁.
What's the 4 teams PPG excluding the games you mention? Are they all pretty much the same then?
Football is played on the pitch, alot of assumptions in this article
Looking at our fixtures we have a slightly tough period then towards the end of the season the run is pretty tame. If we get through this period we should be sailing!
Even if we pick up a few draws and a defeat we shouldn't panic. The other 4 teams end run in looks worse than ours
Next International break 17th to 25th March. - last years left the Welsh lads in particular, looking shadows of themselves.
Even though we have the strongest squad, nothing is a given, especially in LS11!
...still feel we'll go up though.
The Laurent kid in their midfield is a big _____er.
He battered Plymouth. Granted, it was Plymouth.
But, they're a tough team. With plenty of players
equal to ours. Going to be a real test.
For me, a point away would be massive. And I'd
be happy. A win would be unbelievable. We do
that and I think we break away from the other 3.
The way I see it, we have three games left. Burnley, Sunderland and the Blades.
-------------------------
what a ridiculous thing to say....
Is this saying that other teams in this league won't take points of any of the top four?..
Something tells me all four will lose points along the way so we should take every game as it comes and hope we are the better!..
We'll drop points away here and there, apart from Easter weekend, we look unbeatable at home. We beat Norwich easily without getting out of 2nd gear.
I could argue both sides of this, last season we took maximum points from the top 2, and got beat 3 times by Southampton...but ultimately it was the losses against Coventry, Blackburn and QPR that finished us.
These games are obviously important but expecting the 4 teams to do just as well against rest of league isn’t right. Like comment above says it was our losses against other teams that mattered, not Ipswich or Leicester.
I think we’ll win the league because the Burnley and Sheff Utd will start to drop points against rest of the league
Burnley have failed to score in 8 games this season, they are over performing in defence and that won’t keep up. Trafford is very good shot stopper but they’ll start conceding at a higher rate and you’ll see them lose more because they don’t have enough goal scorers.
Sheff Utd again have over performed their stats and I think they’ll start to drop off a bit, which we have seen over Xmas period.
Leeds on the other hand have best underlying stats. We dominate every game massively, all our dropped points were unlucky. If we had a decent keeper, we’d be at least 7 points clear, whereas if Burnley had Meslier they’d be outside the playoffs. So us going on a run and pulling away isn’t unlikely.
Get to March 1st top and we will smash it
Although the league this season looks similar to the one of last season, we don’t have any team far out-performing the rest, a la Leicester, or scoring late, unlikely wins, like Ipswich. This season, the results have been more predictable, especially when the top four play teams below them. And that is the basis of this thread, because my argument is that the results which matter most are in the games between the top four.
Germany asks, does that mean other teams won’t take points off the top four? All of the top four will drop points to the teams beneath them, but at the moment, we are all averaging around the same points per game against them. Here are the ppg for the top four, excluding our matches against each other:
Sunderland. 2.0
Leeds. 2.16
Burnley. 2.13
Sheffield U. 2.25
The Blades are picking up the most points against those teams, but against the top four, they are the weakest performers. The other three are very close, in terms of ppg. This is why I think the Blades will have a problem, because of their poor performance in the ‘six pointer’ games. So far, they are covering up the deficiency by gaining more points elsewhere, but when they play Burnley in April, that could push them out of the autos for good.
And yes, there are some big assumptions in this piece, but I have examined the evidence as it stands, to say ‘this is the way the season is developing and, if it continues like this, this is a possible outcome’.
Whether you agree or disagree, I hope it offers some food for thought.
By the way, this time last year, the top four were thirteen points (25 in the case of Leicester) ahead of the rest. This year, you have four teams at the top who are matching each other stride for stride. Best fans notion, that if we are top after 1st March, we should be good for the autos, is reasonable, in my view.
Think the Hull result tonight kind of put a kaibosh on this article !
Beware of hubris Salonika. I am sure we all have this kind of result in our locker. 😉
Tell me you know full fook about football, without tellling me
Tell me you know full fook about football,
without tellling me
^^^
This made me laugh out loud. Again.
I'd like to take these words exactly as posted
via a damn good beery night out, and plaster
them across a t-shirt. And sell them.
full fook football
^^^
I mean, come on, we'd sell millions of these t-shirts.
comment by The heart of Farkeness (U19827)
posted 2 hours, 7 minutes ago
Beware of hubris Salonika. I am sure we all have this kind of result in our locker. 😉
----------------------------------------------------------------------
Exactly my point ! Focussing on results against just 3 team is bananas!! Just look at our matches from 1 March .... should win them all! Job done. Will we fook. Will be heart monitor time, as per usual 🩺
Even if we lose all three of the mentioned games we still go up by winning the rest. What matters are points won not who they are against. Last year we beat Leicester twice and thrashed Ipswich home and away but look what happened. Are we likely to lose three more this season, I doubt it.
As long as we play to our basic capabilities in our remaining games with the core of the side as it has been thus far we get in the top 2 as far as I see it but if we manage to raise our bar of performance in at least a dozen of our remaining games to the highest we've seen it this season against Shef Utd and Sunderland then I think we hit 100 points but the obvious flaw in all this is we're passing judgement on Leeds United which can never be taken for granted so an air of caution is always required but nonetheless we're looking hot favourites to get a top 2 spot whatever mental gymnastics we use to analyse it all.
Page 1 of 1
First
Previous
1
Next
Latest
Sign in if you want to comment
Three games left
Page 1 of 1
posted on 24/1/25
Morning HoF and all🌞.
Nice piece of work and for that, I’m giving this thread 5*👍.
However, I don’t agree. Your premise suggests that of our remaining 18 games, 15 of them are effectively a ‘gimme’ and we only have to turn up to get the result we need (yes, granted, also in comparison to how the other 3 at the top atm fare in those 15 games). I accept these are my words, not yours, but that’s the way I’ve interpreted what you’re suggesting. My view is that we’re (Leeds) so unpredictable and I couldn’t in all honesty say right now that I feel confident to get the ‘right’ results in those other 15 games.
The table certainly shows a 4-horse race right now, with a 10-point gap between 4th and 5th place but I’m gonna wait a little while longer before making any end-of-season predictions. Oh and yes, I defo want at least a draw against Burnley on Monday👍😁.
posted on 24/1/25
What's the 4 teams PPG excluding the games you mention? Are they all pretty much the same then?
posted on 24/1/25
Football is played on the pitch, alot of assumptions in this article
posted on 24/1/25
Looking at our fixtures we have a slightly tough period then towards the end of the season the run is pretty tame. If we get through this period we should be sailing!
Even if we pick up a few draws and a defeat we shouldn't panic. The other 4 teams end run in looks worse than ours
posted on 24/1/25
Next International break 17th to 25th March. - last years left the Welsh lads in particular, looking shadows of themselves.
Even though we have the strongest squad, nothing is a given, especially in LS11!
posted on 24/1/25
...still feel we'll go up though.
posted on 24/1/25
The Laurent kid in their midfield is a big _____er.
He battered Plymouth. Granted, it was Plymouth.
But, they're a tough team. With plenty of players
equal to ours. Going to be a real test.
For me, a point away would be massive. And I'd
be happy. A win would be unbelievable. We do
that and I think we break away from the other 3.
posted on 24/1/25
The way I see it, we have three games left. Burnley, Sunderland and the Blades.
-------------------------
what a ridiculous thing to say....
posted on 24/1/25
Is this saying that other teams in this league won't take points of any of the top four?..
Something tells me all four will lose points along the way so we should take every game as it comes and hope we are the better!..
posted on 24/1/25
We'll drop points away here and there, apart from Easter weekend, we look unbeatable at home. We beat Norwich easily without getting out of 2nd gear.
posted on 24/1/25
I could argue both sides of this, last season we took maximum points from the top 2, and got beat 3 times by Southampton...but ultimately it was the losses against Coventry, Blackburn and QPR that finished us.
posted on 24/1/25
These games are obviously important but expecting the 4 teams to do just as well against rest of league isn’t right. Like comment above says it was our losses against other teams that mattered, not Ipswich or Leicester.
I think we’ll win the league because the Burnley and Sheff Utd will start to drop points against rest of the league
Burnley have failed to score in 8 games this season, they are over performing in defence and that won’t keep up. Trafford is very good shot stopper but they’ll start conceding at a higher rate and you’ll see them lose more because they don’t have enough goal scorers.
Sheff Utd again have over performed their stats and I think they’ll start to drop off a bit, which we have seen over Xmas period.
Leeds on the other hand have best underlying stats. We dominate every game massively, all our dropped points were unlucky. If we had a decent keeper, we’d be at least 7 points clear, whereas if Burnley had Meslier they’d be outside the playoffs. So us going on a run and pulling away isn’t unlikely.
Get to March 1st top and we will smash it
posted on 24/1/25
Although the league this season looks similar to the one of last season, we don’t have any team far out-performing the rest, a la Leicester, or scoring late, unlikely wins, like Ipswich. This season, the results have been more predictable, especially when the top four play teams below them. And that is the basis of this thread, because my argument is that the results which matter most are in the games between the top four.
Germany asks, does that mean other teams won’t take points off the top four? All of the top four will drop points to the teams beneath them, but at the moment, we are all averaging around the same points per game against them. Here are the ppg for the top four, excluding our matches against each other:
Sunderland. 2.0
Leeds. 2.16
Burnley. 2.13
Sheffield U. 2.25
The Blades are picking up the most points against those teams, but against the top four, they are the weakest performers. The other three are very close, in terms of ppg. This is why I think the Blades will have a problem, because of their poor performance in the ‘six pointer’ games. So far, they are covering up the deficiency by gaining more points elsewhere, but when they play Burnley in April, that could push them out of the autos for good.
And yes, there are some big assumptions in this piece, but I have examined the evidence as it stands, to say ‘this is the way the season is developing and, if it continues like this, this is a possible outcome’.
Whether you agree or disagree, I hope it offers some food for thought.
posted on 24/1/25
By the way, this time last year, the top four were thirteen points (25 in the case of Leicester) ahead of the rest. This year, you have four teams at the top who are matching each other stride for stride. Best fans notion, that if we are top after 1st March, we should be good for the autos, is reasonable, in my view.
posted on 24/1/25
Think the Hull result tonight kind of put a kaibosh on this article !
posted on 24/1/25
Beware of hubris Salonika. I am sure we all have this kind of result in our locker. 😉
posted on 24/1/25
Tell me you know full fook about football, without tellling me
posted on 24/1/25
Tell me you know full fook about football,
without tellling me
^^^
This made me laugh out loud. Again.
I'd like to take these words exactly as posted
via a damn good beery night out, and plaster
them across a t-shirt. And sell them.
posted on 25/1/25
full fook football
^^^
I mean, come on, we'd sell millions of these t-shirts.
posted on 25/1/25
comment by The heart of Farkeness (U19827)
posted 2 hours, 7 minutes ago
Beware of hubris Salonika. I am sure we all have this kind of result in our locker. 😉
----------------------------------------------------------------------
Exactly my point ! Focussing on results against just 3 team is bananas!! Just look at our matches from 1 March .... should win them all! Job done. Will we fook. Will be heart monitor time, as per usual 🩺
posted on 25/1/25
Even if we lose all three of the mentioned games we still go up by winning the rest. What matters are points won not who they are against. Last year we beat Leicester twice and thrashed Ipswich home and away but look what happened. Are we likely to lose three more this season, I doubt it.
posted on 25/1/25
As long as we play to our basic capabilities in our remaining games with the core of the side as it has been thus far we get in the top 2 as far as I see it but if we manage to raise our bar of performance in at least a dozen of our remaining games to the highest we've seen it this season against Shef Utd and Sunderland then I think we hit 100 points but the obvious flaw in all this is we're passing judgement on Leeds United which can never be taken for granted so an air of caution is always required but nonetheless we're looking hot favourites to get a top 2 spot whatever mental gymnastics we use to analyse it all.
posted on 25/1/25
Lost me at 3 games left!
Page 1 of 1