comment by Sat Nav (U18243)
posted 58 minutes ago
comment by Tamwolf (U17286)
posted 2 minutes ago
comment by Sat Nav (U18243)
posted 5 minutes ago
comment by CrouchEndGooner (U13531)
posted 21 minutes ago
Vaccines work ✌️
----------------------------------------------------------------------
Yeah. Just need more people to take it. I’m not in favour of mandates but some of these people are pushing my libertarian limits in this regard
----------------------------------------------------------------------
Seen loads of libertarians comparing vaccine passports and mandates to Na zi Germany. These are usually the same people who complain the word fascist is being devalued.
Its always amusing watching some people go full circle.
----------------------------------------------------------------------
Yeah I mean I’d never get to that level. I just don’t like the idea of forcing people to do things but like I said, my patience is being tested.
----------------------------------------------------------------------
I was actually debating with a libertarian who was very much open to vaccine mandates with the following rationale that I summarise;
“There’s many flavours of libertarianism, but my one is basically “you should be free to do whatever you like until it impinges on my own rights of body and property”. That definition allows for governments to enforce that, and one of the big ones is externalities. Like, you have the right to make a product, until your pollution hurts my lungs. Then that’s an externality that government can tax or ban. Same with Covid, not getting vaccinated creates an externality that risks my body in several ways. So I can make the case for government either banning it or taxing it, to remove or pay for the externality respectively.
You’ll be none too surprised to hear I was sitting right on the fence during the discussion.
comment by Tamwolf (U17286)
posted 58 minutes ago
comment by Sat Nav (U18243)
posted 2 minutes ago
comment by Tamwolf (U17286)
posted 1 minute ago
comment by Sat Nav (U18243)
posted 2 minutes ago
comment by Tamwolf (U17286)
posted 9 minutes ago
comment by Sat Nav (U18243)
posted 28 minutes ago
7 day average corona deaths down from 170 in November to 119 now
Cases up from November to now
----------------------------------------------------------------------
Deaths is always a lag metric behind case numbers. Usually about a month or so behind. The deaths now are probably from November's numbers, which were lower than October. So it makes sense there has been a dip.
----------------------------------------------------------------------
I don’t think that timeline follows perfectly. 170 down to 119 is a more notable drop than cases in October vs November. November still had very high case numbers
https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/cases
There is graph that you can toggle to see the cumulative cases to get a picture, cases have been rising pretty consistently since the summer.
----------------------------------------------------------------------
Three weeks ago, cases were at about 30k. In October they were at about 45k. So it's 33% lower. It makes sense there would be a bit of a dip in the following numbers.
We are yet to see the results of the current increase on deaths as these numbers lag behind.
----------------------------------------------------------------------
Three weeks ago the daily cases was 44,306
It was the beginning of November when the cases were in the 30s
----------------------------------------------------------------------
On the 21st November cases were at 36,000.
----------------------------------------------------------------------
That’s a Sunday
And the 22nd they were 44,306 which was a Monday
23rd was 42000
18th 46000
Like I said, the difference from 170 7 day average down to 119 is greater than October to November cases.
comment by Sat Nav (U18243)
posted about a minute ago
comment by Tamwolf (U17286)
posted 58 minutes ago
comment by Sat Nav (U18243)
posted 2 minutes ago
comment by Tamwolf (U17286)
posted 1 minute ago
comment by Sat Nav (U18243)
posted 2 minutes ago
comment by Tamwolf (U17286)
posted 9 minutes ago
comment by Sat Nav (U18243)
posted 28 minutes ago
7 day average corona deaths down from 170 in November to 119 now
Cases up from November to now
----------------------------------------------------------------------
Deaths is always a lag metric behind case numbers. Usually about a month or so behind. The deaths now are probably from November's numbers, which were lower than October. So it makes sense there has been a dip.
----------------------------------------------------------------------
I don’t think that timeline follows perfectly. 170 down to 119 is a more notable drop than cases in October vs November. November still had very high case numbers
https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/cases
There is graph that you can toggle to see the cumulative cases to get a picture, cases have been rising pretty consistently since the summer.
----------------------------------------------------------------------
Three weeks ago, cases were at about 30k. In October they were at about 45k. So it's 33% lower. It makes sense there would be a bit of a dip in the following numbers.
We are yet to see the results of the current increase on deaths as these numbers lag behind.
----------------------------------------------------------------------
Three weeks ago the daily cases was 44,306
It was the beginning of November when the cases were in the 30s
----------------------------------------------------------------------
On the 21st November cases were at 36,000.
----------------------------------------------------------------------
That’s a Sunday
And the 22nd they were 44,306 which was a Monday
23rd was 42000
18th 46000
Like I said, the difference from 170 7 day average down to 119 is greater than October to November cases.
----------------------------------------------------------------------
You don't have the data for today though.
comment by Sat Nav (U18243)
posted 49 seconds ago
comment by Tamwolf (U17286)
posted 58 minutes ago
comment by Sat Nav (U18243)
posted 2 minutes ago
comment by Tamwolf (U17286)
posted 1 minute ago
comment by Sat Nav (U18243)
posted 2 minutes ago
comment by Tamwolf (U17286)
posted 9 minutes ago
comment by Sat Nav (U18243)
posted 28 minutes ago
7 day average corona deaths down from 170 in November to 119 now
Cases up from November to now
----------------------------------------------------------------------
Deaths is always a lag metric behind case numbers. Usually about a month or so behind. The deaths now are probably from November's numbers, which were lower than October. So it makes sense there has been a dip.
----------------------------------------------------------------------
I don’t think that timeline follows perfectly. 170 down to 119 is a more notable drop than cases in October vs November. November still had very high case numbers
https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/cases
There is graph that you can toggle to see the cumulative cases to get a picture, cases have been rising pretty consistently since the summer.
----------------------------------------------------------------------
Three weeks ago, cases were at about 30k. In October they were at about 45k. So it's 33% lower. It makes sense there would be a bit of a dip in the following numbers.
We are yet to see the results of the current increase on deaths as these numbers lag behind.
----------------------------------------------------------------------
Three weeks ago the daily cases was 44,306
It was the beginning of November when the cases were in the 30s
----------------------------------------------------------------------
On the 21st November cases were at 36,000.
----------------------------------------------------------------------
That’s a Sunday
And the 22nd they were 44,306 which was a Monday
23rd was 42000
18th 46000
Like I said, the difference from 170 7 day average down to 119 is greater than October to November cases.
----------------------------------------------------------------------
So many folk here have caught it, felt crap for a week and ok now, and perhaps we will all get it or had it unknowingly, so part of me says whatever will be, as people are not reliable or sensible at times, and this is life now?
Just get jabbed, boosted, wear a mask and behave....and respect others around you.
Simples
comment by Tamwolf (U17286)
posted 2 minutes ago
comment by Sat Nav (U18243)
posted about a minute ago
comment by Tamwolf (U17286)
posted 58 minutes ago
comment by Sat Nav (U18243)
posted 2 minutes ago
comment by Tamwolf (U17286)
posted 1 minute ago
comment by Sat Nav (U18243)
posted 2 minutes ago
comment by Tamwolf (U17286)
posted 9 minutes ago
comment by Sat Nav (U18243)
posted 28 minutes ago
7 day average corona deaths down from 170 in November to 119 now
Cases up from November to now
----------------------------------------------------------------------
Deaths is always a lag metric behind case numbers. Usually about a month or so behind. The deaths now are probably from November's numbers, which were lower than October. So it makes sense there has been a dip.
----------------------------------------------------------------------
I don’t think that timeline follows perfectly. 170 down to 119 is a more notable drop than cases in October vs November. November still had very high case numbers
https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/cases
There is graph that you can toggle to see the cumulative cases to get a picture, cases have been rising pretty consistently since the summer.
----------------------------------------------------------------------
Three weeks ago, cases were at about 30k. In October they were at about 45k. So it's 33% lower. It makes sense there would be a bit of a dip in the following numbers.
We are yet to see the results of the current increase on deaths as these numbers lag behind.
----------------------------------------------------------------------
Three weeks ago the daily cases was 44,306
It was the beginning of November when the cases were in the 30s
----------------------------------------------------------------------
On the 21st November cases were at 36,000.
----------------------------------------------------------------------
That’s a Sunday
And the 22nd they were 44,306 which was a Monday
23rd was 42000
18th 46000
Like I said, the difference from 170 7 day average down to 119 is greater than October to November cases.
----------------------------------------------------------------------
You don't have the data for today though.
----------------------------------------------------------------------
Aww, case closed then, lol
comment by thebluebellsarablue (U9292)
posted less than a minute ago
comment by Tamwolf (U17286)
posted 2 minutes ago
comment by Sat Nav (U18243)
posted about a minute ago
comment by Tamwolf (U17286)
posted 58 minutes ago
comment by Sat Nav (U18243)
posted 2 minutes ago
comment by Tamwolf (U17286)
posted 1 minute ago
comment by Sat Nav (U18243)
posted 2 minutes ago
comment by Tamwolf (U17286)
posted 9 minutes ago
comment by Sat Nav (U18243)
posted 28 minutes ago
7 day average corona deaths down from 170 in November to 119 now
Cases up from November to now
----------------------------------------------------------------------
Deaths is always a lag metric behind case numbers. Usually about a month or so behind. The deaths now are probably from November's numbers, which were lower than October. So it makes sense there has been a dip.
----------------------------------------------------------------------
I don’t think that timeline follows perfectly. 170 down to 119 is a more notable drop than cases in October vs November. November still had very high case numbers
https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/cases
There is graph that you can toggle to see the cumulative cases to get a picture, cases have been rising pretty consistently since the summer.
----------------------------------------------------------------------
Three weeks ago, cases were at about 30k. In October they were at about 45k. So it's 33% lower. It makes sense there would be a bit of a dip in the following numbers.
We are yet to see the results of the current increase on deaths as these numbers lag behind.
----------------------------------------------------------------------
Three weeks ago the daily cases was 44,306
It was the beginning of November when the cases were in the 30s
----------------------------------------------------------------------
On the 21st November cases were at 36,000.
----------------------------------------------------------------------
That’s a Sunday
And the 22nd they were 44,306 which was a Monday
23rd was 42000
18th 46000
Like I said, the difference from 170 7 day average down to 119 is greater than October to November cases.
----------------------------------------------------------------------
You don't have the data for today though.
----------------------------------------------------------------------
Aww, case closed then, lol
----------------------------------------------------------------------
Well he is complaining that I am comparing a Sundays data with a Sunday from weeks ago. When he wants to compare a Sunday's data with a Monday from three weeks ago.
Throughout the pandemic, numbers have been lower on the weekend. Throughout the pandemic, deaths and hospitalisations have been a lag metric from cases. We don't know the full impact of the current increase. Pretending we do is foolish.
It's just whether you err on the side of caution with the unknown or want to gamble.
comment by bmcl1987 (U14177)
posted 11 minutes ago
comment by Sat Nav (U18243)
posted 58 minutes ago
comment by Tamwolf (U17286)
posted 2 minutes ago
comment by Sat Nav (U18243)
posted 5 minutes ago
comment by CrouchEndGooner (U13531)
posted 21 minutes ago
Vaccines work ✌️
----------------------------------------------------------------------
Yeah. Just need more people to take it. I’m not in favour of mandates but some of these people are pushing my libertarian limits in this regard
----------------------------------------------------------------------
Seen loads of libertarians comparing vaccine passports and mandates to Na zi Germany. These are usually the same people who complain the word fascist is being devalued.
Its always amusing watching some people go full circle.
----------------------------------------------------------------------
Yeah I mean I’d never get to that level. I just don’t like the idea of forcing people to do things but like I said, my patience is being tested.
----------------------------------------------------------------------
I was actually debating with a libertarian who was very much open to vaccine mandates with the following rationale that I summarise;
“There’s many flavours of libertarianism, but my one is basically “you should be free to do whatever you like until it impinges on my own rights of body and property”. That definition allows for governments to enforce that, and one of the big ones is externalities. Like, you have the right to make a product, until your pollution hurts my lungs. Then that’s an externality that government can tax or ban. Same with Covid, not getting vaccinated creates an externality that risks my body in several ways. So I can make the case for government either banning it or taxing it, to remove or pay for the externality respectively.
You’ll be none too surprised to hear I was sitting right on the fence during the discussion.
----------------------------------------------------------------------
John Stuart Mill:
“The only purpose for which power can be rightfully exercised over any member of a civilized community, against his will, is to prevent harm to others.”
^ Lots of 21st century neo-libertarians like to repost Mill quotes they’ve read in memes and are excited to hype him up until they read about his ideas on taxation.
Then they like to forget all about him
comment by Tamwolf (U17286)
posted 30 minutes ago
comment by Sat Nav (U18243)
posted about a minute ago
comment by Tamwolf (U17286)
posted 58 minutes ago
comment by Sat Nav (U18243)
posted 2 minutes ago
comment by Tamwolf (U17286)
posted 1 minute ago
comment by Sat Nav (U18243)
posted 2 minutes ago
comment by Tamwolf (U17286)
posted 9 minutes ago
comment by Sat Nav (U18243)
posted 28 minutes ago
7 day average corona deaths down from 170 in November to 119 now
Cases up from November to now
----------------------------------------------------------------------
Deaths is always a lag metric behind case numbers. Usually about a month or so behind. The deaths now are probably from November's numbers, which were lower than October. So it makes sense there has been a dip.
----------------------------------------------------------------------
I don’t think that timeline follows perfectly. 170 down to 119 is a more notable drop than cases in October vs November. November still had very high case numbers
https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/cases
There is graph that you can toggle to see the cumulative cases to get a picture, cases have been rising pretty consistently since the summer.
----------------------------------------------------------------------
Three weeks ago, cases were at about 30k. In October they were at about 45k. So it's 33% lower. It makes sense there would be a bit of a dip in the following numbers.
We are yet to see the results of the current increase on deaths as these numbers lag behind.
----------------------------------------------------------------------
Three weeks ago the daily cases was 44,306
It was the beginning of November when the cases were in the 30s
----------------------------------------------------------------------
On the 21st November cases were at 36,000.
----------------------------------------------------------------------
That’s a Sunday
And the 22nd they were 44,306 which was a Monday
23rd was 42000
18th 46000
Like I said, the difference from 170 7 day average down to 119 is greater than October to November cases.
----------------------------------------------------------------------
You don't have the data for today though.
----------------------------------------------------------------------
I’m using 7 day data for deaths. Over the past few weeks it’s happily declined from 170 to 119.
I’m not saying that decline will continue nor that an increase won’t happen. The trouble also with the winter months ahead is that this is when a lot of older people die normally so the numbers of deaths ‘with covid’ are likely to increase regardless.
Ultimately, since opening up properly in the summer, cases have gone up loads but deaths have remained nowhere near where they were pre-vaccine, which is great.
Whether these numbers (100-130 say) remain for the foreseeable as a new norm or not time will tell.
comment by thebluebellsarablue (U9292)
posted 31 minutes ago
comment by Sat Nav (U18243)
posted 49 seconds ago
comment by Tamwolf (U17286)
posted 58 minutes ago
comment by Sat Nav (U18243)
posted 2 minutes ago
comment by Tamwolf (U17286)
posted 1 minute ago
comment by Sat Nav (U18243)
posted 2 minutes ago
comment by Tamwolf (U17286)
posted 9 minutes ago
comment by Sat Nav (U18243)
posted 28 minutes ago
7 day average corona deaths down from 170 in November to 119 now
Cases up from November to now
----------------------------------------------------------------------
Deaths is always a lag metric behind case numbers. Usually about a month or so behind. The deaths now are probably from November's numbers, which were lower than October. So it makes sense there has been a dip.
----------------------------------------------------------------------
I don’t think that timeline follows perfectly. 170 down to 119 is a more notable drop than cases in October vs November. November still had very high case numbers
https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/cases
There is graph that you can toggle to see the cumulative cases to get a picture, cases have been rising pretty consistently since the summer.
----------------------------------------------------------------------
Three weeks ago, cases were at about 30k. In October they were at about 45k. So it's 33% lower. It makes sense there would be a bit of a dip in the following numbers.
We are yet to see the results of the current increase on deaths as these numbers lag behind.
----------------------------------------------------------------------
Three weeks ago the daily cases was 44,306
It was the beginning of November when the cases were in the 30s
----------------------------------------------------------------------
On the 21st November cases were at 36,000.
----------------------------------------------------------------------
That’s a Sunday
And the 22nd they were 44,306 which was a Monday
23rd was 42000
18th 46000
Like I said, the difference from 170 7 day average down to 119 is greater than October to November cases.
----------------------------------------------------------------------
So many folk here have caught it, felt crap for a week and ok now, and perhaps we will all get it or had it unknowingly, so part of me says whatever will be, as people are not reliable or sensible at times, and this is life now?
Just get jabbed, boosted, wear a mask and behave....and respect others around you.
Simples
----------------------------------------------------------------------
Pretty much
comment by Tamwolf (U17286)
posted 27 minutes ago
comment by thebluebellsarablue (U9292)
posted less than a minute ago
comment by Tamwolf (U17286)
posted 2 minutes ago
comment by Sat Nav (U18243)
posted about a minute ago
comment by Tamwolf (U17286)
posted 58 minutes ago
comment by Sat Nav (U18243)
posted 2 minutes ago
comment by Tamwolf (U17286)
posted 1 minute ago
comment by Sat Nav (U18243)
posted 2 minutes ago
comment by Tamwolf (U17286)
posted 9 minutes ago
comment by Sat Nav (U18243)
posted 28 minutes ago
7 day average corona deaths down from 170 in November to 119 now
Cases up from November to now
----------------------------------------------------------------------
Deaths is always a lag metric behind case numbers. Usually about a month or so behind. The deaths now are probably from November's numbers, which were lower than October. So it makes sense there has been a dip.
----------------------------------------------------------------------
I don’t think that timeline follows perfectly. 170 down to 119 is a more notable drop than cases in October vs November. November still had very high case numbers
https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/cases
There is graph that you can toggle to see the cumulative cases to get a picture, cases have been rising pretty consistently since the summer.
----------------------------------------------------------------------
Three weeks ago, cases were at about 30k. In October they were at about 45k. So it's 33% lower. It makes sense there would be a bit of a dip in the following numbers.
We are yet to see the results of the current increase on deaths as these numbers lag behind.
----------------------------------------------------------------------
Three weeks ago the daily cases was 44,306
It was the beginning of November when the cases were in the 30s
----------------------------------------------------------------------
On the 21st November cases were at 36,000.
----------------------------------------------------------------------
That’s a Sunday
And the 22nd they were 44,306 which was a Monday
23rd was 42000
18th 46000
Like I said, the difference from 170 7 day average down to 119 is greater than October to November cases.
----------------------------------------------------------------------
You don't have the data for today though.
----------------------------------------------------------------------
Aww, case closed then, lol
----------------------------------------------------------------------
Well he is complaining that I am comparing a Sundays data with a Sunday from weeks ago. When he wants to compare a Sunday's data with a Monday from three weeks ago.
Throughout the pandemic, numbers have been lower on the weekend. Throughout the pandemic, deaths and hospitalisations have been a lag metric from cases. We don't know the full impact of the current increase. Pretending we do is foolish.
It's just whether you err on the side of caution with the unknown or want to gamble.
----------------------------------------------------------------------
First, I’m not complaining about anything but using a Sunday is a bit silly.
The only reason I am going back three weeks is that this is the amount of time on average between case and death.
comment by Sat Nav (U18243)
posted 0 seconds ago
comment by Tamwolf (U17286)
posted 27 minutes ago
comment by thebluebellsarablue (U9292)
posted less than a minute ago
comment by Tamwolf (U17286)
posted 2 minutes ago
comment by Sat Nav (U18243)
posted about a minute ago
comment by Tamwolf (U17286)
posted 58 minutes ago
comment by Sat Nav (U18243)
posted 2 minutes ago
comment by Tamwolf (U17286)
posted 1 minute ago
comment by Sat Nav (U18243)
posted 2 minutes ago
comment by Tamwolf (U17286)
posted 9 minutes ago
comment by Sat Nav (U18243)
posted 28 minutes ago
7 day average corona deaths down from 170 in November to 119 now
Cases up from November to now
----------------------------------------------------------------------
Deaths is always a lag metric behind case numbers. Usually about a month or so behind. The deaths now are probably from November's numbers, which were lower than October. So it makes sense there has been a dip.
----------------------------------------------------------------------
I don’t think that timeline follows perfectly. 170 down to 119 is a more notable drop than cases in October vs November. November still had very high case numbers
https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/cases
There is graph that you can toggle to see the cumulative cases to get a picture, cases have been rising pretty consistently since the summer.
----------------------------------------------------------------------
Three weeks ago, cases were at about 30k. In October they were at about 45k. So it's 33% lower. It makes sense there would be a bit of a dip in the following numbers.
We are yet to see the results of the current increase on deaths as these numbers lag behind.
----------------------------------------------------------------------
Three weeks ago the daily cases was 44,306
It was the beginning of November when the cases were in the 30s
----------------------------------------------------------------------
On the 21st November cases were at 36,000.
----------------------------------------------------------------------
That’s a Sunday
And the 22nd they were 44,306 which was a Monday
23rd was 42000
18th 46000
Like I said, the difference from 170 7 day average down to 119 is greater than October to November cases.
----------------------------------------------------------------------
You don't have the data for today though.
----------------------------------------------------------------------
Aww, case closed then, lol
----------------------------------------------------------------------
Well he is complaining that I am comparing a Sundays data with a Sunday from weeks ago. When he wants to compare a Sunday's data with a Monday from three weeks ago.
Throughout the pandemic, numbers have been lower on the weekend. Throughout the pandemic, deaths and hospitalisations have been a lag metric from cases. We don't know the full impact of the current increase. Pretending we do is foolish.
It's just whether you err on the side of caution with the unknown or want to gamble.
----------------------------------------------------------------------
First, I’m not complaining about anything but using a Sunday is a bit silly.
The only reason I am going back three weeks is that this is the amount of time on average between case and death.
----------------------------------------------------------------------
And I’m using 7 day moving averages with deaths not individual days.
comment by thebluebellsarablue (U9292)
posted 37 minutes ago
comment by Sat Nav (U18243)
posted 49 seconds ago
comment by Tamwolf (U17286)
posted 58 minutes ago
comment by Sat Nav (U18243)
posted 2 minutes ago
comment by Tamwolf (U17286)
posted 1 minute ago
comment by Sat Nav (U18243)
posted 2 minutes ago
comment by Tamwolf (U17286)
posted 9 minutes ago
comment by Sat Nav (U18243)
posted 28 minutes ago
7 day average corona deaths down from 170 in November to 119 now
Cases up from November to now
----------------------------------------------------------------------
Deaths is always a lag metric behind case numbers. Usually about a month or so behind. The deaths now are probably from November's numbers, which were lower than October. So it makes sense there has been a dip.
----------------------------------------------------------------------
I don’t think that timeline follows perfectly. 170 down to 119 is a more notable drop than cases in October vs November. November still had very high case numbers
https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/cases
There is graph that you can toggle to see the cumulative cases to get a picture, cases have been rising pretty consistently since the summer.
----------------------------------------------------------------------
Three weeks ago, cases were at about 30k. In October they were at about 45k. So it's 33% lower. It makes sense there would be a bit of a dip in the following numbers.
We are yet to see the results of the current increase on deaths as these numbers lag behind.
----------------------------------------------------------------------
Three weeks ago the daily cases was 44,306
It was the beginning of November when the cases were in the 30s
----------------------------------------------------------------------
On the 21st November cases were at 36,000.
----------------------------------------------------------------------
That’s a Sunday
And the 22nd they were 44,306 which was a Monday
23rd was 42000
18th 46000
Like I said, the difference from 170 7 day average down to 119 is greater than October to November cases.
----------------------------------------------------------------------
So many folk here have caught it, felt crap for a week and ok now, and perhaps we will all get it or had it unknowingly, so part of me says whatever will be, as people are not reliable or sensible at times, and this is life now?
Just get jabbed, boosted, wear a mask and behave....and respect others around you.
Simples
----------------------------------------------------------------------
Problem being, a large proportion aren't gettig jabbed.
A large proportion won't wear masks.
comment by bmcl1987 (U14177)
posted 1 hour, 2 minutes ago
comment by De Gea's Legs (U14210)
posted 27 minutes ago
How anyone died from omicron yet?
Hopefully the reports that it's mild are true
----------------------------------------------------------------------
Latest I’ve seen is that there have been 10 in SA but that was 5 days ago;
https://covidactuaries.org/2021/12/08/omicron-little-o-and-little-known/
Not seen any more recent figures. To get an idea of what may be coming, I’d recommend giving Louis Roussow a follow on Twitter who is doing so excellent data analysis work on omicron. It’s safe to say it is a mixed bag of some good news and some less good news, but worth reading a couple of his threads to get right up to speed.
----------------------------------------------------------------------
First in the UK just announced
comment by CrouchEndGooner (U13531)
posted 3 minutes ago
comment by bmcl1987 (U14177)
posted 1 hour, 2 minutes ago
comment by De Gea's Legs (U14210)
posted 27 minutes ago
How anyone died from omicron yet?
Hopefully the reports that it's mild are true
----------------------------------------------------------------------
Latest I’ve seen is that there have been 10 in SA but that was 5 days ago;
https://covidactuaries.org/2021/12/08/omicron-little-o-and-little-known/
Not seen any more recent figures. To get an idea of what may be coming, I’d recommend giving Louis Roussow a follow on Twitter who is doing so excellent data analysis work on omicron. It’s safe to say it is a mixed bag of some good news and some less good news, but worth reading a couple of his threads to get right up to speed.
----------------------------------------------------------------------
First in the UK just announced
----------------------------------------------------------------------
Just seen that 😕 really hope we are not in for the predicted 25-75k deaths from this wave.
comment by bmcl1987 (U14177)
posted 7 seconds ago
comment by CrouchEndGooner (U13531)
posted 3 minutes ago
comment by bmcl1987 (U14177)
posted 1 hour, 2 minutes ago
comment by De Gea's Legs (U14210)
posted 27 minutes ago
How anyone died from omicron yet?
Hopefully the reports that it's mild are true
----------------------------------------------------------------------
Latest I’ve seen is that there have been 10 in SA but that was 5 days ago;
https://covidactuaries.org/2021/12/08/omicron-little-o-and-little-known/
Not seen any more recent figures. To get an idea of what may be coming, I’d recommend giving Louis Roussow a follow on Twitter who is doing so excellent data analysis work on omicron. It’s safe to say it is a mixed bag of some good news and some less good news, but worth reading a couple of his threads to get right up to speed.
----------------------------------------------------------------------
First in the UK just announced
----------------------------------------------------------------------
Just seen that 😕 really hope we are not in for the predicted 25-75k deaths from this wave.
----------------------------------------------------------------------
Jeez are those the predictions?
That’s another 1,850,000 - 5,500,000 cases at the current case to death rate of 1.35%
Surely that’s too high? Unless my maths is failing me
Just lock us down already
comment by Amado Carrillo Fuentes (U11781)
posted 4 minutes ago
Just lock us down already
----------------------------------------------------------------------
Oh behave
Lockdown or no lockdown, it looks like we've all got several more months of bad news about Covid to look forward to
Hospitalisation have been between 5000 to 9000 since opening up currently 7315 as 7 day average.
To provide context January period it was 30k+, peaking at just under 40k
January period:
Cases around 70k
Hospitalisations 30k
Deaths around 1600 (peaked 1850)
Currently:
Cases around 35-40k
Hospitalisations 7k
Deaths around 120-150
Let’s hope that continues for the next 45 days
Comment deleted by Site Moderator
comment by Sat Nav (U18243)
posted about 2 hours ago
Hospitalisation have been between 5000 to 9000 since opening up currently 7315 as 7 day average.
To provide context January period it was 30k+, peaking at just under 40k
January period:
Cases around 70k
Hospitalisations 30k
Deaths around 1600 (peaked 1850)
Currently:
Cases around 35-40k
Hospitalisations 7k
Deaths around 120-150
Let’s hope that continues for the next 45 days
----------------------------------------------------------------------
even if it does continue we are still talking between 5 and 7 thousand people dying in those 45 days.
One of the things that concerns me is how the longer these things go on people become more accepting/tolerant/desensitized to people dying.
comment by Samus (Isle of) Arran (U22669)
posted 2 minutes ago
comment by Sat Nav (U18243)
posted about 2 hours ago
Hospitalisation have been between 5000 to 9000 since opening up currently 7315 as 7 day average.
To provide context January period it was 30k+, peaking at just under 40k
January period:
Cases around 70k
Hospitalisations 30k
Deaths around 1600 (peaked 1850)
Currently:
Cases around 35-40k
Hospitalisations 7k
Deaths around 120-150
Let’s hope that continues for the next 45 days
----------------------------------------------------------------------
even if it does continue we are still talking between 5 and 7 thousand people dying in those 45 days.
One of the things that concerns me is how the longer these things go on people become more accepting/tolerant/desensitized to people dying.
----------------------------------------------------------------------
Well that might very well be the case with covid. What do you propose? Lockdowns every year? Social distancing 24/7?
Or is your point merely that it’s sad that more people are dying from this virus?
U.S. hit 800,000 Covid deaths this weekend.
Sign in if you want to comment
Politics Thread
Page 2076 of 6074
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posted on 13/12/21
comment by Sat Nav (U18243)
posted 58 minutes ago
comment by Tamwolf (U17286)
posted 2 minutes ago
comment by Sat Nav (U18243)
posted 5 minutes ago
comment by CrouchEndGooner (U13531)
posted 21 minutes ago
Vaccines work ✌️
----------------------------------------------------------------------
Yeah. Just need more people to take it. I’m not in favour of mandates but some of these people are pushing my libertarian limits in this regard
----------------------------------------------------------------------
Seen loads of libertarians comparing vaccine passports and mandates to Na zi Germany. These are usually the same people who complain the word fascist is being devalued.
Its always amusing watching some people go full circle.
----------------------------------------------------------------------
Yeah I mean I’d never get to that level. I just don’t like the idea of forcing people to do things but like I said, my patience is being tested.
----------------------------------------------------------------------
I was actually debating with a libertarian who was very much open to vaccine mandates with the following rationale that I summarise;
“There’s many flavours of libertarianism, but my one is basically “you should be free to do whatever you like until it impinges on my own rights of body and property”. That definition allows for governments to enforce that, and one of the big ones is externalities. Like, you have the right to make a product, until your pollution hurts my lungs. Then that’s an externality that government can tax or ban. Same with Covid, not getting vaccinated creates an externality that risks my body in several ways. So I can make the case for government either banning it or taxing it, to remove or pay for the externality respectively.
You’ll be none too surprised to hear I was sitting right on the fence during the discussion.
posted on 13/12/21
comment by Tamwolf (U17286)
posted 58 minutes ago
comment by Sat Nav (U18243)
posted 2 minutes ago
comment by Tamwolf (U17286)
posted 1 minute ago
comment by Sat Nav (U18243)
posted 2 minutes ago
comment by Tamwolf (U17286)
posted 9 minutes ago
comment by Sat Nav (U18243)
posted 28 minutes ago
7 day average corona deaths down from 170 in November to 119 now
Cases up from November to now
----------------------------------------------------------------------
Deaths is always a lag metric behind case numbers. Usually about a month or so behind. The deaths now are probably from November's numbers, which were lower than October. So it makes sense there has been a dip.
----------------------------------------------------------------------
I don’t think that timeline follows perfectly. 170 down to 119 is a more notable drop than cases in October vs November. November still had very high case numbers
https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/cases
There is graph that you can toggle to see the cumulative cases to get a picture, cases have been rising pretty consistently since the summer.
----------------------------------------------------------------------
Three weeks ago, cases were at about 30k. In October they were at about 45k. So it's 33% lower. It makes sense there would be a bit of a dip in the following numbers.
We are yet to see the results of the current increase on deaths as these numbers lag behind.
----------------------------------------------------------------------
Three weeks ago the daily cases was 44,306
It was the beginning of November when the cases were in the 30s
----------------------------------------------------------------------
On the 21st November cases were at 36,000.
----------------------------------------------------------------------
That’s a Sunday
And the 22nd they were 44,306 which was a Monday
23rd was 42000
18th 46000
Like I said, the difference from 170 7 day average down to 119 is greater than October to November cases.
posted on 13/12/21
comment by Sat Nav (U18243)
posted about a minute ago
comment by Tamwolf (U17286)
posted 58 minutes ago
comment by Sat Nav (U18243)
posted 2 minutes ago
comment by Tamwolf (U17286)
posted 1 minute ago
comment by Sat Nav (U18243)
posted 2 minutes ago
comment by Tamwolf (U17286)
posted 9 minutes ago
comment by Sat Nav (U18243)
posted 28 minutes ago
7 day average corona deaths down from 170 in November to 119 now
Cases up from November to now
----------------------------------------------------------------------
Deaths is always a lag metric behind case numbers. Usually about a month or so behind. The deaths now are probably from November's numbers, which were lower than October. So it makes sense there has been a dip.
----------------------------------------------------------------------
I don’t think that timeline follows perfectly. 170 down to 119 is a more notable drop than cases in October vs November. November still had very high case numbers
https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/cases
There is graph that you can toggle to see the cumulative cases to get a picture, cases have been rising pretty consistently since the summer.
----------------------------------------------------------------------
Three weeks ago, cases were at about 30k. In October they were at about 45k. So it's 33% lower. It makes sense there would be a bit of a dip in the following numbers.
We are yet to see the results of the current increase on deaths as these numbers lag behind.
----------------------------------------------------------------------
Three weeks ago the daily cases was 44,306
It was the beginning of November when the cases were in the 30s
----------------------------------------------------------------------
On the 21st November cases were at 36,000.
----------------------------------------------------------------------
That’s a Sunday
And the 22nd they were 44,306 which was a Monday
23rd was 42000
18th 46000
Like I said, the difference from 170 7 day average down to 119 is greater than October to November cases.
----------------------------------------------------------------------
You don't have the data for today though.
posted on 13/12/21
comment by Sat Nav (U18243)
posted 49 seconds ago
comment by Tamwolf (U17286)
posted 58 minutes ago
comment by Sat Nav (U18243)
posted 2 minutes ago
comment by Tamwolf (U17286)
posted 1 minute ago
comment by Sat Nav (U18243)
posted 2 minutes ago
comment by Tamwolf (U17286)
posted 9 minutes ago
comment by Sat Nav (U18243)
posted 28 minutes ago
7 day average corona deaths down from 170 in November to 119 now
Cases up from November to now
----------------------------------------------------------------------
Deaths is always a lag metric behind case numbers. Usually about a month or so behind. The deaths now are probably from November's numbers, which were lower than October. So it makes sense there has been a dip.
----------------------------------------------------------------------
I don’t think that timeline follows perfectly. 170 down to 119 is a more notable drop than cases in October vs November. November still had very high case numbers
https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/cases
There is graph that you can toggle to see the cumulative cases to get a picture, cases have been rising pretty consistently since the summer.
----------------------------------------------------------------------
Three weeks ago, cases were at about 30k. In October they were at about 45k. So it's 33% lower. It makes sense there would be a bit of a dip in the following numbers.
We are yet to see the results of the current increase on deaths as these numbers lag behind.
----------------------------------------------------------------------
Three weeks ago the daily cases was 44,306
It was the beginning of November when the cases were in the 30s
----------------------------------------------------------------------
On the 21st November cases were at 36,000.
----------------------------------------------------------------------
That’s a Sunday
And the 22nd they were 44,306 which was a Monday
23rd was 42000
18th 46000
Like I said, the difference from 170 7 day average down to 119 is greater than October to November cases.
----------------------------------------------------------------------
So many folk here have caught it, felt crap for a week and ok now, and perhaps we will all get it or had it unknowingly, so part of me says whatever will be, as people are not reliable or sensible at times, and this is life now?
Just get jabbed, boosted, wear a mask and behave....and respect others around you.
Simples
posted on 13/12/21
comment by Tamwolf (U17286)
posted 2 minutes ago
comment by Sat Nav (U18243)
posted about a minute ago
comment by Tamwolf (U17286)
posted 58 minutes ago
comment by Sat Nav (U18243)
posted 2 minutes ago
comment by Tamwolf (U17286)
posted 1 minute ago
comment by Sat Nav (U18243)
posted 2 minutes ago
comment by Tamwolf (U17286)
posted 9 minutes ago
comment by Sat Nav (U18243)
posted 28 minutes ago
7 day average corona deaths down from 170 in November to 119 now
Cases up from November to now
----------------------------------------------------------------------
Deaths is always a lag metric behind case numbers. Usually about a month or so behind. The deaths now are probably from November's numbers, which were lower than October. So it makes sense there has been a dip.
----------------------------------------------------------------------
I don’t think that timeline follows perfectly. 170 down to 119 is a more notable drop than cases in October vs November. November still had very high case numbers
https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/cases
There is graph that you can toggle to see the cumulative cases to get a picture, cases have been rising pretty consistently since the summer.
----------------------------------------------------------------------
Three weeks ago, cases were at about 30k. In October they were at about 45k. So it's 33% lower. It makes sense there would be a bit of a dip in the following numbers.
We are yet to see the results of the current increase on deaths as these numbers lag behind.
----------------------------------------------------------------------
Three weeks ago the daily cases was 44,306
It was the beginning of November when the cases were in the 30s
----------------------------------------------------------------------
On the 21st November cases were at 36,000.
----------------------------------------------------------------------
That’s a Sunday
And the 22nd they were 44,306 which was a Monday
23rd was 42000
18th 46000
Like I said, the difference from 170 7 day average down to 119 is greater than October to November cases.
----------------------------------------------------------------------
You don't have the data for today though.
----------------------------------------------------------------------
Aww, case closed then, lol
posted on 13/12/21
comment by thebluebellsarablue (U9292)
posted less than a minute ago
comment by Tamwolf (U17286)
posted 2 minutes ago
comment by Sat Nav (U18243)
posted about a minute ago
comment by Tamwolf (U17286)
posted 58 minutes ago
comment by Sat Nav (U18243)
posted 2 minutes ago
comment by Tamwolf (U17286)
posted 1 minute ago
comment by Sat Nav (U18243)
posted 2 minutes ago
comment by Tamwolf (U17286)
posted 9 minutes ago
comment by Sat Nav (U18243)
posted 28 minutes ago
7 day average corona deaths down from 170 in November to 119 now
Cases up from November to now
----------------------------------------------------------------------
Deaths is always a lag metric behind case numbers. Usually about a month or so behind. The deaths now are probably from November's numbers, which were lower than October. So it makes sense there has been a dip.
----------------------------------------------------------------------
I don’t think that timeline follows perfectly. 170 down to 119 is a more notable drop than cases in October vs November. November still had very high case numbers
https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/cases
There is graph that you can toggle to see the cumulative cases to get a picture, cases have been rising pretty consistently since the summer.
----------------------------------------------------------------------
Three weeks ago, cases were at about 30k. In October they were at about 45k. So it's 33% lower. It makes sense there would be a bit of a dip in the following numbers.
We are yet to see the results of the current increase on deaths as these numbers lag behind.
----------------------------------------------------------------------
Three weeks ago the daily cases was 44,306
It was the beginning of November when the cases were in the 30s
----------------------------------------------------------------------
On the 21st November cases were at 36,000.
----------------------------------------------------------------------
That’s a Sunday
And the 22nd they were 44,306 which was a Monday
23rd was 42000
18th 46000
Like I said, the difference from 170 7 day average down to 119 is greater than October to November cases.
----------------------------------------------------------------------
You don't have the data for today though.
----------------------------------------------------------------------
Aww, case closed then, lol
----------------------------------------------------------------------
Well he is complaining that I am comparing a Sundays data with a Sunday from weeks ago. When he wants to compare a Sunday's data with a Monday from three weeks ago.
Throughout the pandemic, numbers have been lower on the weekend. Throughout the pandemic, deaths and hospitalisations have been a lag metric from cases. We don't know the full impact of the current increase. Pretending we do is foolish.
It's just whether you err on the side of caution with the unknown or want to gamble.
posted on 13/12/21
comment by bmcl1987 (U14177)
posted 11 minutes ago
comment by Sat Nav (U18243)
posted 58 minutes ago
comment by Tamwolf (U17286)
posted 2 minutes ago
comment by Sat Nav (U18243)
posted 5 minutes ago
comment by CrouchEndGooner (U13531)
posted 21 minutes ago
Vaccines work ✌️
----------------------------------------------------------------------
Yeah. Just need more people to take it. I’m not in favour of mandates but some of these people are pushing my libertarian limits in this regard
----------------------------------------------------------------------
Seen loads of libertarians comparing vaccine passports and mandates to Na zi Germany. These are usually the same people who complain the word fascist is being devalued.
Its always amusing watching some people go full circle.
----------------------------------------------------------------------
Yeah I mean I’d never get to that level. I just don’t like the idea of forcing people to do things but like I said, my patience is being tested.
----------------------------------------------------------------------
I was actually debating with a libertarian who was very much open to vaccine mandates with the following rationale that I summarise;
“There’s many flavours of libertarianism, but my one is basically “you should be free to do whatever you like until it impinges on my own rights of body and property”. That definition allows for governments to enforce that, and one of the big ones is externalities. Like, you have the right to make a product, until your pollution hurts my lungs. Then that’s an externality that government can tax or ban. Same with Covid, not getting vaccinated creates an externality that risks my body in several ways. So I can make the case for government either banning it or taxing it, to remove or pay for the externality respectively.
You’ll be none too surprised to hear I was sitting right on the fence during the discussion.
----------------------------------------------------------------------
John Stuart Mill:
“The only purpose for which power can be rightfully exercised over any member of a civilized community, against his will, is to prevent harm to others.”
posted on 13/12/21
^ Lots of 21st century neo-libertarians like to repost Mill quotes they’ve read in memes and are excited to hype him up until they read about his ideas on taxation.
Then they like to forget all about him
posted on 13/12/21
comment by Tamwolf (U17286)
posted 30 minutes ago
comment by Sat Nav (U18243)
posted about a minute ago
comment by Tamwolf (U17286)
posted 58 minutes ago
comment by Sat Nav (U18243)
posted 2 minutes ago
comment by Tamwolf (U17286)
posted 1 minute ago
comment by Sat Nav (U18243)
posted 2 minutes ago
comment by Tamwolf (U17286)
posted 9 minutes ago
comment by Sat Nav (U18243)
posted 28 minutes ago
7 day average corona deaths down from 170 in November to 119 now
Cases up from November to now
----------------------------------------------------------------------
Deaths is always a lag metric behind case numbers. Usually about a month or so behind. The deaths now are probably from November's numbers, which were lower than October. So it makes sense there has been a dip.
----------------------------------------------------------------------
I don’t think that timeline follows perfectly. 170 down to 119 is a more notable drop than cases in October vs November. November still had very high case numbers
https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/cases
There is graph that you can toggle to see the cumulative cases to get a picture, cases have been rising pretty consistently since the summer.
----------------------------------------------------------------------
Three weeks ago, cases were at about 30k. In October they were at about 45k. So it's 33% lower. It makes sense there would be a bit of a dip in the following numbers.
We are yet to see the results of the current increase on deaths as these numbers lag behind.
----------------------------------------------------------------------
Three weeks ago the daily cases was 44,306
It was the beginning of November when the cases were in the 30s
----------------------------------------------------------------------
On the 21st November cases were at 36,000.
----------------------------------------------------------------------
That’s a Sunday
And the 22nd they were 44,306 which was a Monday
23rd was 42000
18th 46000
Like I said, the difference from 170 7 day average down to 119 is greater than October to November cases.
----------------------------------------------------------------------
You don't have the data for today though.
----------------------------------------------------------------------
I’m using 7 day data for deaths. Over the past few weeks it’s happily declined from 170 to 119.
I’m not saying that decline will continue nor that an increase won’t happen. The trouble also with the winter months ahead is that this is when a lot of older people die normally so the numbers of deaths ‘with covid’ are likely to increase regardless.
Ultimately, since opening up properly in the summer, cases have gone up loads but deaths have remained nowhere near where they were pre-vaccine, which is great.
Whether these numbers (100-130 say) remain for the foreseeable as a new norm or not time will tell.
posted on 13/12/21
comment by thebluebellsarablue (U9292)
posted 31 minutes ago
comment by Sat Nav (U18243)
posted 49 seconds ago
comment by Tamwolf (U17286)
posted 58 minutes ago
comment by Sat Nav (U18243)
posted 2 minutes ago
comment by Tamwolf (U17286)
posted 1 minute ago
comment by Sat Nav (U18243)
posted 2 minutes ago
comment by Tamwolf (U17286)
posted 9 minutes ago
comment by Sat Nav (U18243)
posted 28 minutes ago
7 day average corona deaths down from 170 in November to 119 now
Cases up from November to now
----------------------------------------------------------------------
Deaths is always a lag metric behind case numbers. Usually about a month or so behind. The deaths now are probably from November's numbers, which were lower than October. So it makes sense there has been a dip.
----------------------------------------------------------------------
I don’t think that timeline follows perfectly. 170 down to 119 is a more notable drop than cases in October vs November. November still had very high case numbers
https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/cases
There is graph that you can toggle to see the cumulative cases to get a picture, cases have been rising pretty consistently since the summer.
----------------------------------------------------------------------
Three weeks ago, cases were at about 30k. In October they were at about 45k. So it's 33% lower. It makes sense there would be a bit of a dip in the following numbers.
We are yet to see the results of the current increase on deaths as these numbers lag behind.
----------------------------------------------------------------------
Three weeks ago the daily cases was 44,306
It was the beginning of November when the cases were in the 30s
----------------------------------------------------------------------
On the 21st November cases were at 36,000.
----------------------------------------------------------------------
That’s a Sunday
And the 22nd they were 44,306 which was a Monday
23rd was 42000
18th 46000
Like I said, the difference from 170 7 day average down to 119 is greater than October to November cases.
----------------------------------------------------------------------
So many folk here have caught it, felt crap for a week and ok now, and perhaps we will all get it or had it unknowingly, so part of me says whatever will be, as people are not reliable or sensible at times, and this is life now?
Just get jabbed, boosted, wear a mask and behave....and respect others around you.
Simples
----------------------------------------------------------------------
Pretty much
posted on 13/12/21
comment by Tamwolf (U17286)
posted 27 minutes ago
comment by thebluebellsarablue (U9292)
posted less than a minute ago
comment by Tamwolf (U17286)
posted 2 minutes ago
comment by Sat Nav (U18243)
posted about a minute ago
comment by Tamwolf (U17286)
posted 58 minutes ago
comment by Sat Nav (U18243)
posted 2 minutes ago
comment by Tamwolf (U17286)
posted 1 minute ago
comment by Sat Nav (U18243)
posted 2 minutes ago
comment by Tamwolf (U17286)
posted 9 minutes ago
comment by Sat Nav (U18243)
posted 28 minutes ago
7 day average corona deaths down from 170 in November to 119 now
Cases up from November to now
----------------------------------------------------------------------
Deaths is always a lag metric behind case numbers. Usually about a month or so behind. The deaths now are probably from November's numbers, which were lower than October. So it makes sense there has been a dip.
----------------------------------------------------------------------
I don’t think that timeline follows perfectly. 170 down to 119 is a more notable drop than cases in October vs November. November still had very high case numbers
https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/cases
There is graph that you can toggle to see the cumulative cases to get a picture, cases have been rising pretty consistently since the summer.
----------------------------------------------------------------------
Three weeks ago, cases were at about 30k. In October they were at about 45k. So it's 33% lower. It makes sense there would be a bit of a dip in the following numbers.
We are yet to see the results of the current increase on deaths as these numbers lag behind.
----------------------------------------------------------------------
Three weeks ago the daily cases was 44,306
It was the beginning of November when the cases were in the 30s
----------------------------------------------------------------------
On the 21st November cases were at 36,000.
----------------------------------------------------------------------
That’s a Sunday
And the 22nd they were 44,306 which was a Monday
23rd was 42000
18th 46000
Like I said, the difference from 170 7 day average down to 119 is greater than October to November cases.
----------------------------------------------------------------------
You don't have the data for today though.
----------------------------------------------------------------------
Aww, case closed then, lol
----------------------------------------------------------------------
Well he is complaining that I am comparing a Sundays data with a Sunday from weeks ago. When he wants to compare a Sunday's data with a Monday from three weeks ago.
Throughout the pandemic, numbers have been lower on the weekend. Throughout the pandemic, deaths and hospitalisations have been a lag metric from cases. We don't know the full impact of the current increase. Pretending we do is foolish.
It's just whether you err on the side of caution with the unknown or want to gamble.
----------------------------------------------------------------------
First, I’m not complaining about anything but using a Sunday is a bit silly.
The only reason I am going back three weeks is that this is the amount of time on average between case and death.
posted on 13/12/21
comment by Sat Nav (U18243)
posted 0 seconds ago
comment by Tamwolf (U17286)
posted 27 minutes ago
comment by thebluebellsarablue (U9292)
posted less than a minute ago
comment by Tamwolf (U17286)
posted 2 minutes ago
comment by Sat Nav (U18243)
posted about a minute ago
comment by Tamwolf (U17286)
posted 58 minutes ago
comment by Sat Nav (U18243)
posted 2 minutes ago
comment by Tamwolf (U17286)
posted 1 minute ago
comment by Sat Nav (U18243)
posted 2 minutes ago
comment by Tamwolf (U17286)
posted 9 minutes ago
comment by Sat Nav (U18243)
posted 28 minutes ago
7 day average corona deaths down from 170 in November to 119 now
Cases up from November to now
----------------------------------------------------------------------
Deaths is always a lag metric behind case numbers. Usually about a month or so behind. The deaths now are probably from November's numbers, which were lower than October. So it makes sense there has been a dip.
----------------------------------------------------------------------
I don’t think that timeline follows perfectly. 170 down to 119 is a more notable drop than cases in October vs November. November still had very high case numbers
https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/cases
There is graph that you can toggle to see the cumulative cases to get a picture, cases have been rising pretty consistently since the summer.
----------------------------------------------------------------------
Three weeks ago, cases were at about 30k. In October they were at about 45k. So it's 33% lower. It makes sense there would be a bit of a dip in the following numbers.
We are yet to see the results of the current increase on deaths as these numbers lag behind.
----------------------------------------------------------------------
Three weeks ago the daily cases was 44,306
It was the beginning of November when the cases were in the 30s
----------------------------------------------------------------------
On the 21st November cases were at 36,000.
----------------------------------------------------------------------
That’s a Sunday
And the 22nd they were 44,306 which was a Monday
23rd was 42000
18th 46000
Like I said, the difference from 170 7 day average down to 119 is greater than October to November cases.
----------------------------------------------------------------------
You don't have the data for today though.
----------------------------------------------------------------------
Aww, case closed then, lol
----------------------------------------------------------------------
Well he is complaining that I am comparing a Sundays data with a Sunday from weeks ago. When he wants to compare a Sunday's data with a Monday from three weeks ago.
Throughout the pandemic, numbers have been lower on the weekend. Throughout the pandemic, deaths and hospitalisations have been a lag metric from cases. We don't know the full impact of the current increase. Pretending we do is foolish.
It's just whether you err on the side of caution with the unknown or want to gamble.
----------------------------------------------------------------------
First, I’m not complaining about anything but using a Sunday is a bit silly.
The only reason I am going back three weeks is that this is the amount of time on average between case and death.
----------------------------------------------------------------------
And I’m using 7 day moving averages with deaths not individual days.
posted on 13/12/21
comment by thebluebellsarablue (U9292)
posted 37 minutes ago
comment by Sat Nav (U18243)
posted 49 seconds ago
comment by Tamwolf (U17286)
posted 58 minutes ago
comment by Sat Nav (U18243)
posted 2 minutes ago
comment by Tamwolf (U17286)
posted 1 minute ago
comment by Sat Nav (U18243)
posted 2 minutes ago
comment by Tamwolf (U17286)
posted 9 minutes ago
comment by Sat Nav (U18243)
posted 28 minutes ago
7 day average corona deaths down from 170 in November to 119 now
Cases up from November to now
----------------------------------------------------------------------
Deaths is always a lag metric behind case numbers. Usually about a month or so behind. The deaths now are probably from November's numbers, which were lower than October. So it makes sense there has been a dip.
----------------------------------------------------------------------
I don’t think that timeline follows perfectly. 170 down to 119 is a more notable drop than cases in October vs November. November still had very high case numbers
https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/cases
There is graph that you can toggle to see the cumulative cases to get a picture, cases have been rising pretty consistently since the summer.
----------------------------------------------------------------------
Three weeks ago, cases were at about 30k. In October they were at about 45k. So it's 33% lower. It makes sense there would be a bit of a dip in the following numbers.
We are yet to see the results of the current increase on deaths as these numbers lag behind.
----------------------------------------------------------------------
Three weeks ago the daily cases was 44,306
It was the beginning of November when the cases were in the 30s
----------------------------------------------------------------------
On the 21st November cases were at 36,000.
----------------------------------------------------------------------
That’s a Sunday
And the 22nd they were 44,306 which was a Monday
23rd was 42000
18th 46000
Like I said, the difference from 170 7 day average down to 119 is greater than October to November cases.
----------------------------------------------------------------------
So many folk here have caught it, felt crap for a week and ok now, and perhaps we will all get it or had it unknowingly, so part of me says whatever will be, as people are not reliable or sensible at times, and this is life now?
Just get jabbed, boosted, wear a mask and behave....and respect others around you.
Simples
----------------------------------------------------------------------
Problem being, a large proportion aren't gettig jabbed.
A large proportion won't wear masks.
posted on 13/12/21
comment by bmcl1987 (U14177)
posted 1 hour, 2 minutes ago
comment by De Gea's Legs (U14210)
posted 27 minutes ago
How anyone died from omicron yet?
Hopefully the reports that it's mild are true
----------------------------------------------------------------------
Latest I’ve seen is that there have been 10 in SA but that was 5 days ago;
https://covidactuaries.org/2021/12/08/omicron-little-o-and-little-known/
Not seen any more recent figures. To get an idea of what may be coming, I’d recommend giving Louis Roussow a follow on Twitter who is doing so excellent data analysis work on omicron. It’s safe to say it is a mixed bag of some good news and some less good news, but worth reading a couple of his threads to get right up to speed.
----------------------------------------------------------------------
First in the UK just announced
posted on 13/12/21
comment by CrouchEndGooner (U13531)
posted 3 minutes ago
comment by bmcl1987 (U14177)
posted 1 hour, 2 minutes ago
comment by De Gea's Legs (U14210)
posted 27 minutes ago
How anyone died from omicron yet?
Hopefully the reports that it's mild are true
----------------------------------------------------------------------
Latest I’ve seen is that there have been 10 in SA but that was 5 days ago;
https://covidactuaries.org/2021/12/08/omicron-little-o-and-little-known/
Not seen any more recent figures. To get an idea of what may be coming, I’d recommend giving Louis Roussow a follow on Twitter who is doing so excellent data analysis work on omicron. It’s safe to say it is a mixed bag of some good news and some less good news, but worth reading a couple of his threads to get right up to speed.
----------------------------------------------------------------------
First in the UK just announced
----------------------------------------------------------------------
Just seen that 😕 really hope we are not in for the predicted 25-75k deaths from this wave.
posted on 13/12/21
comment by bmcl1987 (U14177)
posted 7 seconds ago
comment by CrouchEndGooner (U13531)
posted 3 minutes ago
comment by bmcl1987 (U14177)
posted 1 hour, 2 minutes ago
comment by De Gea's Legs (U14210)
posted 27 minutes ago
How anyone died from omicron yet?
Hopefully the reports that it's mild are true
----------------------------------------------------------------------
Latest I’ve seen is that there have been 10 in SA but that was 5 days ago;
https://covidactuaries.org/2021/12/08/omicron-little-o-and-little-known/
Not seen any more recent figures. To get an idea of what may be coming, I’d recommend giving Louis Roussow a follow on Twitter who is doing so excellent data analysis work on omicron. It’s safe to say it is a mixed bag of some good news and some less good news, but worth reading a couple of his threads to get right up to speed.
----------------------------------------------------------------------
First in the UK just announced
----------------------------------------------------------------------
Just seen that 😕 really hope we are not in for the predicted 25-75k deaths from this wave.
----------------------------------------------------------------------
Jeez are those the predictions?
posted on 13/12/21
That’s another 1,850,000 - 5,500,000 cases at the current case to death rate of 1.35%
Surely that’s too high? Unless my maths is failing me
posted on 13/12/21
Just lock us down already
posted on 13/12/21
comment by Amado Carrillo Fuentes (U11781)
posted 4 minutes ago
Just lock us down already
----------------------------------------------------------------------
Oh behave
posted on 13/12/21
Lockdown or no lockdown, it looks like we've all got several more months of bad news about Covid to look forward to
posted on 13/12/21
Hospitalisation have been between 5000 to 9000 since opening up currently 7315 as 7 day average.
To provide context January period it was 30k+, peaking at just under 40k
January period:
Cases around 70k
Hospitalisations 30k
Deaths around 1600 (peaked 1850)
Currently:
Cases around 35-40k
Hospitalisations 7k
Deaths around 120-150
Let’s hope that continues for the next 45 days
posted on 13/12/21
Comment deleted by Site Moderator
posted on 13/12/21
comment by Sat Nav (U18243)
posted about 2 hours ago
Hospitalisation have been between 5000 to 9000 since opening up currently 7315 as 7 day average.
To provide context January period it was 30k+, peaking at just under 40k
January period:
Cases around 70k
Hospitalisations 30k
Deaths around 1600 (peaked 1850)
Currently:
Cases around 35-40k
Hospitalisations 7k
Deaths around 120-150
Let’s hope that continues for the next 45 days
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even if it does continue we are still talking between 5 and 7 thousand people dying in those 45 days.
One of the things that concerns me is how the longer these things go on people become more accepting/tolerant/desensitized to people dying.
posted on 13/12/21
comment by Samus (Isle of) Arran (U22669)
posted 2 minutes ago
comment by Sat Nav (U18243)
posted about 2 hours ago
Hospitalisation have been between 5000 to 9000 since opening up currently 7315 as 7 day average.
To provide context January period it was 30k+, peaking at just under 40k
January period:
Cases around 70k
Hospitalisations 30k
Deaths around 1600 (peaked 1850)
Currently:
Cases around 35-40k
Hospitalisations 7k
Deaths around 120-150
Let’s hope that continues for the next 45 days
----------------------------------------------------------------------
even if it does continue we are still talking between 5 and 7 thousand people dying in those 45 days.
One of the things that concerns me is how the longer these things go on people become more accepting/tolerant/desensitized to people dying.
----------------------------------------------------------------------
Well that might very well be the case with covid. What do you propose? Lockdowns every year? Social distancing 24/7?
Or is your point merely that it’s sad that more people are dying from this virus?
posted on 13/12/21
U.S. hit 800,000 Covid deaths this weekend.
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