comment by Insert random username (U10647)
posted 8 hours, 2 minutes ago
comment by Sat Nav (U18243)
posted 7 hours, 41 minutes ago
comment by Sat Nav (U18243)
posted 49 seconds ago
The most consistently accurate figures have most often been their lowest figures. Again, this isn’t their fault but christ…

The numbers their modelling pumped out in July, the closest to reality was on the basis of a small and gradual drop in precautionary behaviour over a 3 month period (always with default vaccine efficiency)

Their small change within a one month period had us with around 500 daily deaths in October


So with this latest one if the guardian for example wrote 200 deaths instead of 6000 what do we think the reaction/actions would be?

Has any of their worst case modelling come to pass? Maybe January 2021’s numbers? Maybe they were predicting 5,000 daily deaths for that period, can’t say I remember.
----------------------------------------------------------------------
Most of the predictions on deaths in January were fairly close only Cambridge was way off with 4000 daily deaths.
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Their worst case modelling hasn't come to pass because we haven't followed any worst case scenarios?

It's reported on, and people change their behaviour, the Gov change their advice or introduce some rules, and hey presto worst case scenario is avoided.

People then seemingly point at it and say "HEEEEY, THEY LIED!!!" completely ignoring the fact that it wasn't the scenario that played out.
----------------------------------------------------------------------
It's not unlike the "millennium bug" thing that smart alecs at the time, and many times since, have told us was such a non-issue, ignoring the amount of work that went into making it a non-issue.

comment by Hector (U3606)
posted 3 hours, 9 minutes ago
How many of you are actually working from home?
I'm just wondering if half the arguments are academic desktop exercises as opposed to those of us that are having to actually go out, go into buildings, mix with strangers, use public transport etc. and then go home to our families.
----------------------------------------------------------------------
Mostly WFH, have been since March 2020. Been into the office on occasion in that time but no more than 1 or 2 days a week. I'm loving it, but I was arguing we should be adopting this sort of work pattern for years.

comment by HenrysCat (U3608)
posted 6 minutes ago
comment by Hector (U3606)
posted 3 hours, 9 minutes ago
How many of you are actually working from home?
I'm just wondering if half the arguments are academic desktop exercises as opposed to those of us that are having to actually go out, go into buildings, mix with strangers, use public transport etc. and then go home to our families.
----------------------------------------------------------------------
Mostly WFH, have been since March 2020. Been into the office on occasion in that time but no more than 1 or 2 days a week. I'm loving it, but I was arguing we should be adopting this sort of work pattern for years.
----------------------------------------------------------------------
I could feasibly WFH but id be leaving my team in the office and directing people remotely, easier to just come in.

Though now with a clinically vulnerable parent it means I have to be extra careful... For my conscience if nothing else

comment by CrouchEndGooner (U13531)
posted 4 minutes ago
comment by HenrysCat (U3608)
posted 6 minutes ago
comment by Hector (U3606)
posted 3 hours, 9 minutes ago
How many of you are actually working from home?
I'm just wondering if half the arguments are academic desktop exercises as opposed to those of us that are having to actually go out, go into buildings, mix with strangers, use public transport etc. and then go home to our families.
----------------------------------------------------------------------
Mostly WFH, have been since March 2020. Been into the office on occasion in that time but no more than 1 or 2 days a week. I'm loving it, but I was arguing we should be adopting this sort of work pattern for years.
----------------------------------------------------------------------
I could feasibly WFH but id be leaving my team in the office and directing people remotely, easier to just come in.

Though now with a clinically vulnerable parent it means I have to be extra careful... For my conscience if nothing else
----------------------------------------------------------------------
Good luck man.

comment by HenrysCat (U3608)
posted 13 minutes ago
comment by Hector (U3606)
posted 3 hours, 9 minutes ago
How many of you are actually working from home?
I'm just wondering if half the arguments are academic desktop exercises as opposed to those of us that are having to actually go out, go into buildings, mix with strangers, use public transport etc. and then go home to our families.
----------------------------------------------------------------------
Mostly WFH, have been since March 2020. Been into the office on occasion in that time but no more than 1 or 2 days a week. I'm loving it, but I was arguing we should be adopting this sort of work pattern for years.
----------------------------------------------------------------------
The blended approach is the likely way ahead, Henry, in the office once or twice per week if the job fits.

Means office buildings will be half empty, along with cafes, shops and pubs, but we will adapt, I guess?

Happy Christmas Henry....still following bike racing?

I have a new Fireblade toy...well, 98, not new, but a wee rocket lol

comment by thebluebellsarablue (U9292)
posted 5 minutes ago
comment by HenrysCat (U3608)
posted 13 minutes ago
comment by Hector (U3606)
posted 3 hours, 9 minutes ago
How many of you are actually working from home?
I'm just wondering if half the arguments are academic desktop exercises as opposed to those of us that are having to actually go out, go into buildings, mix with strangers, use public transport etc. and then go home to our families.
----------------------------------------------------------------------
Mostly WFH, have been since March 2020. Been into the office on occasion in that time but no more than 1 or 2 days a week. I'm loving it, but I was arguing we should be adopting this sort of work pattern for years.
----------------------------------------------------------------------
The blended approach is the likely way ahead, Henry, in the office once or twice per week if the job fits.

Means office buildings will be half empty, along with cafes, shops and pubs, but we will adapt, I guess?

Happy Christmas Henry....still following bike racing?

I have a new Fireblade toy...well, 98, not new, but a wee rocket lol
----------------------------------------------------------------------
Whilst I agree with you that WFH means that certain cafes and pubs will suffer, others are getting the benefit of it, as BCML said: he and his wife now go out for lunch on their local highstreet occasionally during the working week. That business has just moved elsewhere.

I see the same here, a local Deli bought the shop adjacent to their existing one to increase their table space, I imagine for similar reasons, people WFH getting out the house for a few hours, with money they would have been spending anyway.

Isnt it just the free market? if a Costa next to an office block in London has coined it in for the last 20 years but is no longer viable then that's business. The money spent their doesn't cease to exist, it's being used elsewhere, either at another food dispenser, a shop, or as savings.

For the people in the Costa, yes it sucks, but that's free market capitalism baby.

comment by thebluebellsarablue (U9292)
posted 15 minutes ago
comment by HenrysCat (U3608)
posted 13 minutes ago
comment by Hector (U3606)
posted 3 hours, 9 minutes ago
How many of you are actually working from home?
I'm just wondering if half the arguments are academic desktop exercises as opposed to those of us that are having to actually go out, go into buildings, mix with strangers, use public transport etc. and then go home to our families.
----------------------------------------------------------------------
Mostly WFH, have been since March 2020. Been into the office on occasion in that time but no more than 1 or 2 days a week. I'm loving it, but I was arguing we should be adopting this sort of work pattern for years.
----------------------------------------------------------------------
The blended approach is the likely way ahead, Henry, in the office once or twice per week if the job fits.

Means office buildings will be half empty, along with cafes, shops and pubs, but we will adapt, I guess?

Happy Christmas Henry....still following bike racing?

I have a new Fireblade toy...well, 98, not new, but a wee rocket lol
----------------------------------------------------------------------
Not had a bike for a couple of years now.
It maybe time to fix that.
I've barely watched any sport of late, just the footy. I think the changes in my life sees me outside much more often, which is no bad thing.
Happy Xmas TBAB, hope you and yours have good one.

comment by Insert random username (U10647)
posted 33 minutes ago
comment by thebluebellsarablue (U9292)
posted 5 minutes ago
comment by HenrysCat (U3608)
posted 13 minutes ago
comment by Hector (U3606)
posted 3 hours, 9 minutes ago
How many of you are actually working from home?
I'm just wondering if half the arguments are academic desktop exercises as opposed to those of us that are having to actually go out, go into buildings, mix with strangers, use public transport etc. and then go home to our families.
----------------------------------------------------------------------
Mostly WFH, have been since March 2020. Been into the office on occasion in that time but no more than 1 or 2 days a week. I'm loving it, but I was arguing we should be adopting this sort of work pattern for years.
----------------------------------------------------------------------
The blended approach is the likely way ahead, Henry, in the office once or twice per week if the job fits.

Means office buildings will be half empty, along with cafes, shops and pubs, but we will adapt, I guess?

Happy Christmas Henry....still following bike racing?

I have a new Fireblade toy...well, 98, not new, but a wee rocket lol
----------------------------------------------------------------------
Whilst I agree with you that WFH means that certain cafes and pubs will suffer, others are getting the benefit of it, as BCML said: he and his wife now go out for lunch on their local highstreet occasionally during the working week. That business has just moved elsewhere.

I see the same here, a local Deli bought the shop adjacent to their existing one to increase their table space, I imagine for similar reasons, people WFH getting out the house for a few hours, with money they would have been spending anyway.

Isnt it just the free market? if a Costa next to an office block in London has coined it in for the last 20 years but is no longer viable then that's business. The money spent their doesn't cease to exist, it's being used elsewhere, either at another food dispenser, a shop, or as savings.

For the people in the Costa, yes it sucks, but that's free market capitalism baby.
----------------------------------------------------------------------
Fairs points, Insert.

Hope you have a good Christmas, all things considered.

comment by HenrysCat (U3608)
posted 25 minutes ago
comment by thebluebellsarablue (U9292)
posted 15 minutes ago
comment by HenrysCat (U3608)
posted 13 minutes ago
comment by Hector (U3606)
posted 3 hours, 9 minutes ago
How many of you are actually working from home?
I'm just wondering if half the arguments are academic desktop exercises as opposed to those of us that are having to actually go out, go into buildings, mix with strangers, use public transport etc. and then go home to our families.
----------------------------------------------------------------------
Mostly WFH, have been since March 2020. Been into the office on occasion in that time but no more than 1 or 2 days a week. I'm loving it, but I was arguing we should be adopting this sort of work pattern for years.
----------------------------------------------------------------------
The blended approach is the likely way ahead, Henry, in the office once or twice per week if the job fits.

Means office buildings will be half empty, along with cafes, shops and pubs, but we will adapt, I guess?

Happy Christmas Henry....still following bike racing?

I have a new Fireblade toy...well, 98, not new, but a wee rocket lol
----------------------------------------------------------------------
Not had a bike for a couple of years now.
It maybe time to fix that.
I've barely watched any sport of late, just the footy. I think the changes in my life sees me outside much more often, which is no bad thing.
Happy Xmas TBAB, hope you and yours have good one.
----------------------------------------------------------------------
Back at ya, and glad you are getting out into nature and the great outdoors, wherever it may be.

Covid has got so many folk back out into the countryside or town parks and city walks....every cloud.

comment by thebluebellsarablue (U9292)
posted 51 minutes ago
comment by HenrysCat (U3608)
posted 13 minutes ago
comment by Hector (U3606)
posted 3 hours, 9 minutes ago
How many of you are actually working from home?
I'm just wondering if half the arguments are academic desktop exercises as opposed to those of us that are having to actually go out, go into buildings, mix with strangers, use public transport etc. and then go home to our families.
----------------------------------------------------------------------
Mostly WFH, have been since March 2020. Been into the office on occasion in that time but no more than 1 or 2 days a week. I'm loving it, but I was arguing we should be adopting this sort of work pattern for years.
----------------------------------------------------------------------
The blended approach is the likely way ahead, Henry, in the office once or twice per week if the job fits.

Means office buildings will be half empty, along with cafes, shops and pubs, but we will adapt, I guess?

Happy Christmas Henry....still following bike racing?

I have a new Fireblade toy...well, 98, not new, but a wee rocket lol
----------------------------------------------------------------------
wish I could do this

My job involves me having to go into the lab almost every day though

I just couldnt justify doing say 2 days of lab work and the other 3 at home writing up reports , etc

comment by peks - 1974 (U6618)
posted 33 seconds ago
comment by thebluebellsarablue (U9292)
posted 51 minutes ago
comment by HenrysCat (U3608)
posted 13 minutes ago
comment by Hector (U3606)
posted 3 hours, 9 minutes ago
How many of you are actually working from home?
I'm just wondering if half the arguments are academic desktop exercises as opposed to those of us that are having to actually go out, go into buildings, mix with strangers, use public transport etc. and then go home to our families.
----------------------------------------------------------------------
Mostly WFH, have been since March 2020. Been into the office on occasion in that time but no more than 1 or 2 days a week. I'm loving it, but I was arguing we should be adopting this sort of work pattern for years.
----------------------------------------------------------------------
The blended approach is the likely way ahead, Henry, in the office once or twice per week if the job fits.

Means office buildings will be half empty, along with cafes, shops and pubs, but we will adapt, I guess?

Happy Christmas Henry....still following bike racing?

I have a new Fireblade toy...well, 98, not new, but a wee rocket lol
----------------------------------------------------------------------
wish I could do this

My job involves me having to go into the lab almost every day though

I just couldnt justify doing say 2 days of lab work and the other 3 at home writing up reports , etc
----------------------------------------------------------------------
Unlucky peks, and not good if folk cannae WFH.

Happy Christmas anyway lad.

comment by Sat Nav (U18243)
posted 4 hours, 39 minutes ago
Every possible world scenario? Ok best leave it there if you’re going down that road
----------------------------------------------------------------------


I think I have given reasonable responses tbh. I have approached this in 'good faith', so it's a shame to hear that you think I am being unreasonable.

I just do not agree and I think thats perfectly fine and valid.

comment by thebluebellsarablue (U9292)
posted 52 seconds ago
comment by peks - 1974 (U6618)
posted 33 seconds ago
comment by thebluebellsarablue (U9292)
posted 51 minutes ago
comment by HenrysCat (U3608)
posted 13 minutes ago
comment by Hector (U3606)
posted 3 hours, 9 minutes ago
How many of you are actually working from home?
I'm just wondering if half the arguments are academic desktop exercises as opposed to those of us that are having to actually go out, go into buildings, mix with strangers, use public transport etc. and then go home to our families.
----------------------------------------------------------------------
Mostly WFH, have been since March 2020. Been into the office on occasion in that time but no more than 1 or 2 days a week. I'm loving it, but I was arguing we should be adopting this sort of work pattern for years.
----------------------------------------------------------------------
The blended approach is the likely way ahead, Henry, in the office once or twice per week if the job fits.

Means office buildings will be half empty, along with cafes, shops and pubs, but we will adapt, I guess?

Happy Christmas Henry....still following bike racing?

I have a new Fireblade toy...well, 98, not new, but a wee rocket lol
----------------------------------------------------------------------
wish I could do this

My job involves me having to go into the lab almost every day though

I just couldnt justify doing say 2 days of lab work and the other 3 at home writing up reports , etc
----------------------------------------------------------------------
Unlucky peks, and not good if folk cannae WFH.

Happy Christmas anyway lad.
----------------------------------------------------------------------
happy xmas TBAB have a good one mate

comment by Sat Nav (U18243)
posted 2 hours, 59 minutes ago
comment by Admin1 (U1)
posted 5 minutes ago
The Collapse of Chaos: Discovering Simplicity in a Complex World by Stewart and Cohen is one of my favourite books, it explains the difficulty in adjusting levers in complex multivariable dynamic systems and how counter intuitive some interventions are.

Dave who used to chat on here liked the book so much it worked his way into his undergraduate curriculum. Great book.
----------------------------------------------------------------------
A stocking filler for BMCL methinks
----------------------------------------------------------------------
Slippers and a healthy baby is all I’m asking for 😂

comment by Black Hawk (U16342)
posted 56 minutes ago
comment by Sat Nav (U18243)
posted 4 hours, 39 minutes ago
Every possible world scenario? Ok best leave it there if you’re going down that road
----------------------------------------------------------------------


I think I have given reasonable responses tbh. I have approached this in 'good faith', so it's a shame to hear that you think I am being unreasonable.

I just do not agree and I think thats perfectly fine and valid.
----------------------------------------------------------------------
Yes it is perfectly fine but me wanting additional columns with the SA data inserted is hardly, is nowhere near wanting every possible world scenario, is it?

That’s not good faith nor reasonable at all mate.

comment by bmcl1987 (U14177)
posted 29 minutes ago
comment by Sat Nav (U18243)
posted 2 hours, 59 minutes ago
comment by Admin1 (U1)
posted 5 minutes ago
The Collapse of Chaos: Discovering Simplicity in a Complex World by Stewart and Cohen is one of my favourite books, it explains the difficulty in adjusting levers in complex multivariable dynamic systems and how counter intuitive some interventions are.

Dave who used to chat on here liked the book so much it worked his way into his undergraduate curriculum. Great book.
----------------------------------------------------------------------
A stocking filler for BMCL methinks
----------------------------------------------------------------------
Slippers and a healthy baby is all I’m asking for 😂
----------------------------------------------------------------------
Aye lad - here’s to hoping you get both 😂😂😂

Step 2 lockdown to return apparently

comment by bmcl1987 (U14177)
posted 44 minutes ago
comment by Sat Nav (U18243)
posted 2 hours, 59 minutes ago
comment by Admin1 (U1)
posted 5 minutes ago
The Collapse of Chaos: Discovering Simplicity in a Complex World by Stewart and Cohen is one of my favourite books, it explains the difficulty in adjusting levers in complex multivariable dynamic systems and how counter intuitive some interventions are.

Dave who used to chat on here liked the book so much it worked his way into his undergraduate curriculum. Great book.
----------------------------------------------------------------------
A stocking filler for BMCL methinks
----------------------------------------------------------------------
Slippers and a healthy baby is all I’m asking for 😂
----------------------------------------------------------------------
Hope Santa brings both, pal.

So is that Christmas cancelled? I think stage 2 was no household mixing indoors.

comment by Sat Nav (U18243)
posted 14 minutes ago
comment by bmcl1987 (U14177)
posted 29 minutes ago
comment by Sat Nav (U18243)
posted 2 hours, 59 minutes ago
comment by Admin1 (U1)
posted 5 minutes ago
The Collapse of Chaos: Discovering Simplicity in a Complex World by Stewart and Cohen is one of my favourite books, it explains the difficulty in adjusting levers in complex multivariable dynamic systems and how counter intuitive some interventions are.

Dave who used to chat on here liked the book so much it worked his way into his undergraduate curriculum. Great book.
----------------------------------------------------------------------
A stocking filler for BMCL methinks
----------------------------------------------------------------------
Slippers and a healthy baby is all I’m asking for 😂
----------------------------------------------------------------------
Aye lad - here’s to hoping you get both 😂😂😂
----------------------------------------------------------------------
And a Rangers baby onesy.

comment by De Gea's Legs (U14210)
posted 4 minutes ago
Step 2 lockdown to return apparently
----------------------------------------------------------------------
Not good, but Happy Christmas anyway mate.

comment by Tamwolf (U17286)
posted 1 minute ago
So is that Christmas cancelled? I think stage 2 was no household mixing indoors.
----------------------------------------------------------------------
Join tory party today and have as many round as you wish.

Have a good one Tam.

comment by thebluebellsarablue (U9292)
posted less than a minute ago
comment by Tamwolf (U17286)
posted 1 minute ago
So is that Christmas cancelled? I think stage 2 was no household mixing indoors.
----------------------------------------------------------------------
Join tory party today and have as many round as you wish.

Have a good one Tam.
----------------------------------------------------------------------

I'm having a wine and cheese meeting as we speak.

Westminster Voting Intention (Wales):

LAB: 39% (+2)
CON: 26% (-5)
PLC: 13% (-2)
RFM: 7% (+1)
GRN: 6% (+1)
LDM: 3% (-1)

Via @YouGov, 13-16 Dec.
Changes w/ 13-16 Sep.

Now Yougov is notoriously dodgy but that's insane

Oh it's only Wales... Wtf is any Welsh person doing voting Tory anyway