comment by bmcl1987 (U14177)
posted about a minute ago
comment by Sat Nav (U18243)
posted 26 minutes ago
The problem also is that the numbers will inevitably rise in January as older people die from the cold weather but have omicron so get added to the stats
----------------------------------------------------------------------
Seasonal variations in mortality are allowed for in calculations of excess deaths, which I will again say is the best measure to estimate impact of a new disease, and I will also say that excess deaths have tracked almost 1:1 with covid deaths for the last 15 months
----------------------------------------------------------------------
👍

comment by bmcl1987 (U14177)
posted 53 seconds ago
comment by Sat Nav (U18243)
posted 26 minutes ago
The problem also is that the numbers will inevitably rise in January as older people die from the cold weather but have omicron so get added to the stats
----------------------------------------------------------------------
Seasonal variations in mortality are allowed for in calculations of excess deaths, which I will again say is the best measure to estimate impact of a new disease, and I will also say that excess deaths have tracked almost 1:1 with covid deaths for the last 15 months
----------------------------------------------------------------------
You and I both know it won’t get reported like that at all

comment by Sat Nav (U18243)
posted 3 minutes ago
comment by bmcl1987 (U14177)
posted 53 seconds ago
comment by Sat Nav (U18243)
posted 26 minutes ago
The problem also is that the numbers will inevitably rise in January as older people die from the cold weather but have omicron so get added to the stats
----------------------------------------------------------------------
Seasonal variations in mortality are allowed for in calculations of excess deaths, which I will again say is the best measure to estimate impact of a new disease, and I will also say that excess deaths have tracked almost 1:1 with covid deaths for the last 15 months
----------------------------------------------------------------------
You and I both know it won’t get reported like that at all
----------------------------------------------------------------------
I will point you towards the covid-19 actuarial response group, John roberts or Stuart McDonald for the best details on this though;

https://mobile.twitter.com/COVID19actuary
https://mobile.twitter.com/john_actuary
https://mobile.twitter.com/ActuaryByDay

comment by bmcl1987 (U14177)
posted 1 minute ago
comment by Sat Nav (U18243)
posted 3 minutes ago
comment by bmcl1987 (U14177)
posted 53 seconds ago
comment by Sat Nav (U18243)
posted 26 minutes ago
The problem also is that the numbers will inevitably rise in January as older people die from the cold weather but have omicron so get added to the stats
----------------------------------------------------------------------
Seasonal variations in mortality are allowed for in calculations of excess deaths, which I will again say is the best measure to estimate impact of a new disease, and I will also say that excess deaths have tracked almost 1:1 with covid deaths for the last 15 months
----------------------------------------------------------------------
You and I both know it won’t get reported like that at all
----------------------------------------------------------------------
I will point you towards the covid-19 actuarial response group, John roberts or Stuart McDonald for the best details on this though;

https://mobile.twitter.com/COVID19actuary
https://mobile.twitter.com/john_actuary
https://mobile.twitter.com/ActuaryByDay
----------------------------------------------------------------------
I’m good thanks. I meant for Joe public, the newspapers etc.

comment by Sat Nav (U18243)
posted 10 minutes ago
comment by bmcl1987 (U14177)
posted 1 minute ago
comment by Sat Nav (U18243)
posted 3 minutes ago
comment by bmcl1987 (U14177)
posted 53 seconds ago
comment by Sat Nav (U18243)
posted 26 minutes ago
The problem also is that the numbers will inevitably rise in January as older people die from the cold weather but have omicron so get added to the stats
----------------------------------------------------------------------
Seasonal variations in mortality are allowed for in calculations of excess deaths, which I will again say is the best measure to estimate impact of a new disease, and I will also say that excess deaths have tracked almost 1:1 with covid deaths for the last 15 months
----------------------------------------------------------------------
You and I both know it won’t get reported like that at all
----------------------------------------------------------------------
I will point you towards the covid-19 actuarial response group, John roberts or Stuart McDonald for the best details on this though;

https://mobile.twitter.com/COVID19actuary
https://mobile.twitter.com/john_actuary
https://mobile.twitter.com/ActuaryByDay
----------------------------------------------------------------------
I’m good thanks. I meant for Joe public, the newspapers etc.
----------------------------------------------------------------------
👍 I agree

The Femi Vs Owen Jones twitter beef is hilarious and pathetic 🫖

Hospitality getting £1bn in cash grants according to Rishi

Rishi loves a cash handout.

https://mobile.twitter.com/COVID19actuary/status/1473283597276782592

Again, excess deaths similar to covid deaths.

Happy Solstice.
Things are getting brighter.

comment by Tamwolf (U17286)
posted about an hour ago
Rishi loves a cash handout.
----------------------------------------------------------------------
such a Thatcherite free marketeer.

The usual whelps that usually whine about freeloader benefit scroungers are crying that their unsustainable businesses are unsustainable and have their hands out oh help us Rishi, help us.

You know what cants! If your business goes pop, tough! Some new entrepreneur will take advantage, swoop in and fill the void, thats how it works right!? kill or be killed, survival of the fittest

comment by son of quebec (U8127)
posted 6 minutes ago
Happy Solstice.
Things are getting brighter.
----------------------------------------------------------------------
Only another 5 months of Canadian winter to go!

You make zero distinction between a pandemic driving a bus through the economy and benefit cheating?

A fair free market system does not exclude subsidy when the government shuts down your business against your will due to a once-a-century pandemic you daft plum

With Scotland announcing more restrictions from the 26th, I imagine England will announce them in the next few days. We generally seem to follow a little after Nicola has done something.

comment by Hector (U3606)
posted 19 minutes ago
comment by Tamwolf (U17286)
posted about an hour ago
Rishi loves a cash handout.
----------------------------------------------------------------------
such a Thatcherite free marketeer.

The usual whelps that usually whine about freeloader benefit scroungers are crying that their unsustainable businesses are unsustainable and have their hands out oh help us Rishi, help us.

You know what cants! If your business goes pop, tough! Some new entrepreneur will take advantage, swoop in and fill the void, thats how it works right!? kill or be killed, survival of the fittest
----------------------------------------------------------------------
Have you started early with the vodders and irn bru mate?


Ooooh now that I mention it…..

comment by Hector (U3606)
posted 22 minutes ago
comment by son of quebec (U8127)
posted 6 minutes ago
Happy Solstice.
Things are getting brighter.
----------------------------------------------------------------------
Only another 5 months of Canadian winter to go!
----------------------------------------------------------------------
Fook you. I'm just trying to bring some joy and hope as Sol Invictus returns to brighten all our lives.

comment by son of quebec (U8127)
posted less than a minute ago
comment by Hector (U3606)
posted 22 minutes ago
comment by son of quebec (U8127)
posted 6 minutes ago
Happy Solstice.
Things are getting brighter.
----------------------------------------------------------------------
Only another 5 months of Canadian winter to go!
----------------------------------------------------------------------
Fook you. I'm just trying to bring some joy and hope as Sol Invictus returns to brighten all our lives.
-------------------------------------------------------------------
Appreciate it!

In the midst of difficulties comes opportunity! Why stand opposed to this opportunity? Cheering on state bailouts is not a good look lads...

Hands out, baby hands out
gimme your cash Rishi gimme gimme your cash Rishi

(Okay, that doesn't really track, one too many gimmes perhaps, but you catch the drift..)

comment by Tamwolf (U17286)
posted 45 minutes ago
With Scotland announcing more restrictions from the 26th, I imagine England will announce them in the next few days. We generally seem to follow a little after Nicola has done something.
----------------------------------------------------------------------

I don't disagree, but I think it is only likely rather than definite - due to the fact the Tories are challenging Boris a lot more.

He held a three hour cabinet meeting yesterday - to announce nothing, you don't do that to announce nothing. He got a lot of people vetoing a return to Tier 2 level restrictions in his cabinet.

Now I suspect a combo of more data, more SAGE pressure and Christmas being over means more restrictions but I am only 70 per cent sure rather than thinking its a banker.

You make zero distinction between a pandemic driving a bus through the economy and benefit cheating?
==========================================
Yes, the main distinction being that benefit cheating is a drop in the ocean by comparison, and has very little effect on the overall economy.

But you're right about a fair free market system not excluding subsidies. It provides them in the form of tax-breaks, development grants, regional subsidies, and even provides them, in lavish quantities, when the market crashes on top of Adam Smith's 'invisible hand', as in 2008.

You might even say that Adam Smith's invisible hand isn't all that invisible, and the only debate is about who should benefit from the regulatory input and why, rather than pretending that it's all being driven by the invisible hand, and nothing to do with the government.

I imagine the cabinet resistance to the restrictions will wane soon.

I think Rishi has stood against them so he doesn't have to be fully associated with them and can say he didn't want them. However, he also doesn't want to win and have no more restrictions, as if that backfires he'll have to be held accountable.

Best case scenario for him is for his opposition to them to be public. Them to be put in place so he doesn't see any consequences of that. Then for him to hand out money again to keep the public on his side.

I think politicking is taking precedence over everything else within the cabinet to be honest. I imagine there are a few other opposers doing the same.

comment by Wessie Road (U10652)
posted 7 minutes ago
You make zero distinction between a pandemic driving a bus through the economy and benefit cheating?
==========================================
Yes, the main distinction being that benefit cheating is a drop in the ocean by comparison, and has very little effect on the overall economy.

But you're right about a fair free market system not excluding subsidies. It provides them in the form of tax-breaks, development grants, regional subsidies, and even provides them, in lavish quantities, when the market crashes on top of Adam Smith's 'invisible hand', as in 2008.

You might even say that Adam Smith's invisible hand isn't all that invisible, and the only debate is about who should benefit from the regulatory input and why, rather than pretending that it's all being driven by the invisible hand, and nothing to do with the government.
----------------------------------------------------------------------

You seem to have lost the point of what I actually said in your tiresome Sixth Former rant on economics.

I said that it is ridiculous to compare pandemics to the conventional market conditions, and that benefit cheating is morally wrong in a way that having a business that goes bust because a government locks down all your consumers is not.

I never said benefit cheating was a huge factor - nor did I say businesses don't cheat, lie, or steal to get what they want - I was talking about the effects of the pandemic on trading, and why some 'Dog eat dog' pizz take about free markets was evidently ridiculous.

I am more than prepared to acknowledge businesses benefit from and help influence regulations, tax breaks, and general policy making - we probably just differ over the ramifications of that.

Anyway I tried being civil, let's see what response I get.

'your tiresome Sixth Former rant on economics.'

'Anyway I tried being civil, let's see what response I get.'

I see no contradiction